6/30/24, 7 AM CDT – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now predicts that Hurricane Beryl could rapidly intensify into a Category 4 hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands early Monday morning. At 7 AM CDT, NHC estimated Beryl’s maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. That would currently make it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, which estimates damage to structures at various wind speeds. (See below.)
High SSTs, Low Wind Shear
Sea surface temperatures in Beryl’s path reach 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit, more typical of August than June. And as Beryl moves westward, wind sheer is decreasing. Both factors favor rapid intensification.
Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast continues to show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Windward islands.
Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, increasing shear will likely cause the hurricane’s intensity to level off, then start weakening around midweek, according to NHC.
Eye Wall Development
Recent satellite imagery shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the eyewall and a warming eye.
Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured the maximum wind speed this morning.
Beryl Continues to Track Mostly Westward
The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west at about 20 mph. There aren’t any significant track changes from the previous advisory. An extensive mid-level, high-pressure ridge north of Beryl will steer the system westward or west-northwestward for several days.
Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the forecast track. NHC’s 4 AM Atlantic Standard Time update notes that track prediction is basically an update of the previous one.
The farther out you get, the more models diverge. The average of all models eventually shows the storm moving into the western Gulf.
Category 4 Risks
This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward Islands. Beryl will bring destructive winds, life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall and flooding for much of the Windward Islands tonight and Monday.
Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale Categories
For those new to the Gulf Coast, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based only on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speed.
This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surge, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale estimates potential property damage. While all hurricanes produce life-threatening winds, hurricanes rated Category 3 and higher are known as major hurricanes.
Major hurricanes can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage and significant loss of life simply due to the strength of their winds.
Hurricanes of all categories can produce deadly storm surge, rain-induced floods, and tornadoes.
Category
Sustained Winds
Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
1
74-95 mph
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
2
96-110 mph
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3 (major)
111-129 mph
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4 (major)
130-156 mph
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5 (major)
157 mph or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Beryl-with-Eye.jpg?fit=1100%2C660&ssl=16601100adminadmin2024-06-30 06:55:342024-06-30 07:52:55Beryl Expected to Become Category 4 Hurricane
6/29/24 1:30PM and updated at 3PM – Overnight, a tropical depression in the Atlantic turned into a tropical storm named Beryl. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted Beryl would intensify into a hurricane by Sunday morning. But it reached hurricane strength by approximately 3PM today. NHC now predicts, Beryl will become a category 3 major hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.
Some models predict it could even turn into a category 4 hurricane as it tracks through the Caribbean. While it is generally headed toward the Gulf, the exact track remains uncertain this far out.
Beryl is one of the earliest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic. For advisories related to Beryl, see this page on the NHC site.
Meanwhile two other areas of concern are developing. One now over the Yucatan has a 50% chance of development. The other west of Africa has a 70% chance as of Saturday, 6/29/24 at 3PM CDT.
On top of all these storms, the Trinity River Authority has put the Lake Livingston Dam on “potential failure watch.”
Beryl Track
Beryl will continue west for the next 2-3 days. The storm’s strength will affect its track according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. Intensity will determine Beryl’s ability to fight high pressure to the north. The stronger it becomes, the farther north it will curve. The less it intensifies, the farther west it will track.
“At this point it is too early to determine the eventual longer term movement beyond the western Caribbean Sea,” cautions Lindner.
National Hurricane Center cone of uncertainty for Beryl shows it becoming a major hurricane by Monday 7/1/24.Most models predict a path toward the Gulf.Different combinations of models take Beryl in slightly different directions.
Beryl Intensity Forecasts
Lindner says that “conditions appear unusually favorable for this time of year and location for development.” Regional hurricane models (HWRF, HOMN, HAFSA, and HAFB) all show significant deepening of this system prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Well above-normal Atlantic water temperatures and low upper-level shear support continued development.
“The main question,” says Lindner, “is how quickly can Beryl form an inner core today or tonight and what potential is the upper end limit on intensification through the Islands?”‘
Satellite Photo from 11:20 AM Houston time, 6/29/24. Beryl is in right-hand circle.
Most models predict a 65 knot wind-speed increase in the next 72 hours. That far exceeds what climatology would suggest for this area for this time of year.
This morning, NHC forecasts a 110mph category 2 hurricane hitting the Windward Islands. They cautioned that their estimate might needed to be increased within the next 12-24 hours. But they increased it within six. By its 2 PM update, NHC predicted Beryl would reach major hurricane status before reaching the Windward Islands.
As Beryl moves deeper into the Caribbean Sea, wind sheer and dry air west of the storm could limit further intensification.
Lindner feels that Day 4-5 wind shear forecasts are not always reliable and the weakening trend shown on the right above may be somewhat overdone.
Another Storm Will Cross Gulf and Head into Mexico
A strong tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea has reached the eastern coast of the Yucatan and Belize. See the left hand circle in the satellite photo above.
A large area of deep convection has formed. Land interaction and westerly wind shear will inhibit immediate development. However, there may be a brief window for modest development in the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday/Monday. Then the storm should move inland over eastern Mexico. Current development odds remain around 50%.
Third Storm has 70% Chance of Formation in Atlantic
NHC indicates that a third storm will likely form in the same area where Beryl is now. See the elongated oval below.
This tropical wave is currently located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is showing signs of organization. Another tropical depression or storm may form by the middle part of next week as this wave moves westward along a similar track as Beryl. Chances for development over the next several days are 70%.
Lake Livingston Dam on Failure Watch
With all this activity in the tropics, it is somewhat disconcerting that the Trinity River Authority has placed the Lake Livingston Dam on a “Potential Failure Watch” due to recent heavy rainfall and flooding.
TRA says the dam is in no immediate danger of failing or breaching. They also say that day-to-day operations will continue, but “gate operations will vary based on conditions.” Translation: They’ll be releasing more water faster in the event of more heavy rainfall.
Look out below.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/29/24 and updated at 3PM
2496 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Beryl-Cone.png?fit=876%2C717&ssl=1717876adminadmin2024-06-29 12:24:192024-06-29 16:11:07TS Beryl Predicted to Reach Hurricane Strength within 24 Hours
6/28/24 – According to Houston Public Works’ website, the Tree Lane Bridge Rehabilitation Project next to Bear Branch Elementary was to have been completed today. But construction hasn’t even started yet.
Completion Scheduled for End of June
The latest update, posted just last Thursday, shows “end of June 2024” as the promised completion date.
Screen capture from 4PM June 28, 2024, last workday of the month.
But as of the end of the day today, equipment hadn’t moved in approximately two months, with the exception of moving an excavator farther back from the creek when erosion crept dangerously close to it in the May floods.
Erosion from May floods threatened the parking spot for this construction equipment.
Originally, Houston Public Works said construction would take 6 months. Now we have just 5 weeks before the start of the next school year.
Hurricane Approaching
Meanwhile, a tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic. And the National Hurricane Center predicts it will enter the Gulf as a hurricane approximately a week from now.
On the current trajectory, Houston would be in the cone.
There’s still a large degree of uncertainty associated with any storm this far out. But this underscores the fact that the Tree Lane Bridge project is far behind schedule and we are likely entering a very active hurricane season.
Development this far east in late June is unusual, according to the NHC. In fact, they say, “There have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.” Some models are already predicting this could become a major hurricane (Cat 3 or 4).
The lack of Tree Lane Bridge Rehabilitation progress will expose the bridge to even more erosion if this storm strikes the Houston area. As you can see, the bridge can’t afford much more.
Erosion under bridge
Reasons for Delays
On June 13, Darryl Burrell, EIT, Graduate Engineer, Capital Projects for Houston Public Works, wrote, “There have been multiple instances of utility relocations.”
He added, “Some have already been completed. Our personnel are coordinating with multiple teams and entities. We are all working to get this issue alleviated in a timely manner.”
Photo 6/13/24. That 12″ black pipe is reportedly a city water line that has been exposed since at least April 2022.
I saw a cable company working at the location on 6/17/24, but nothing since then. That was almost two weeks ago. That swooping line in the foreground remains there today.
Editorial Comment: Enforce Deadlines
I’m not sure who is to blame, but would observe this.
As the City looks for ways to trim its budget, it should look at enforcing deadlines.
I wonder how many times contractors have had to reschedule crews around other contractors that didn’t do their jobs on time. That has to increase costs.
And one last issue. Construction delays exposed this area to even greater erosion. That may force revision of the engineering plan, construction drawings, bids, timetables and more.
Why do it once when you can do it twice? Sorry for the cynicism.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/28/24
2495 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/20240613-DJI_20240613110051_0166_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-06-28 18:04:512024-06-28 18:12:24Tree Lane Project Supposed to be Done Today, But Hasn’t Started
Beryl Expected to Become Category 4 Hurricane
6/30/24, 7 AM CDT – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now predicts that Hurricane Beryl could rapidly intensify into a Category 4 hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands early Monday morning. At 7 AM CDT, NHC estimated Beryl’s maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. That would currently make it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, which estimates damage to structures at various wind speeds. (See below.)
High SSTs, Low Wind Shear
Sea surface temperatures in Beryl’s path reach 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit, more typical of August than June. And as Beryl moves westward, wind sheer is decreasing. Both factors favor rapid intensification.
Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast continues to show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Windward islands.
Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, increasing shear will likely cause the hurricane’s intensity to level off, then start weakening around midweek, according to NHC.
Eye Wall Development
Recent satellite imagery shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the eyewall and a warming eye.
Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured the maximum wind speed this morning.
Beryl Continues to Track Mostly Westward
The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west at about 20 mph. There aren’t any significant track changes from the previous advisory. An extensive mid-level, high-pressure ridge north of Beryl will steer the system westward or west-northwestward for several days.
Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the forecast track. NHC’s 4 AM Atlantic Standard Time update notes that track prediction is basically an update of the previous one.
The farther out you get, the more models diverge. The average of all models eventually shows the storm moving into the western Gulf.
Category 4 Risks
This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward Islands. Beryl will bring destructive winds, life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall and flooding for much of the Windward Islands tonight and Monday.
Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale Categories
For those new to the Gulf Coast, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based only on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speed.
This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surge, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale estimates potential property damage. While all hurricanes produce life-threatening winds, hurricanes rated Category 3 and higher are known as major hurricanes.
Major hurricanes can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage and significant loss of life simply due to the strength of their winds.
Hurricanes of all categories can produce deadly storm surge, rain-induced floods, and tornadoes.
(major)
(major)
(major)
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/30/24 at 7 AM CDT
2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey
TS Beryl Predicted to Reach Hurricane Strength within 24 Hours
6/29/24 1:30PM and updated at 3PM – Overnight, a tropical depression in the Atlantic turned into a tropical storm named Beryl. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted Beryl would intensify into a hurricane by Sunday morning. But it reached hurricane strength by approximately 3PM today. NHC now predicts, Beryl will become a category 3 major hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.
Some models predict it could even turn into a category 4 hurricane as it tracks through the Caribbean. While it is generally headed toward the Gulf, the exact track remains uncertain this far out.
Beryl is one of the earliest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic. For advisories related to Beryl, see this page on the NHC site.
Meanwhile two other areas of concern are developing. One now over the Yucatan has a 50% chance of development. The other west of Africa has a 70% chance as of Saturday, 6/29/24 at 3PM CDT.
On top of all these storms, the Trinity River Authority has put the Lake Livingston Dam on “potential failure watch.”
Beryl Track
Beryl will continue west for the next 2-3 days. The storm’s strength will affect its track according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. Intensity will determine Beryl’s ability to fight high pressure to the north. The stronger it becomes, the farther north it will curve. The less it intensifies, the farther west it will track.
“At this point it is too early to determine the eventual longer term movement beyond the western Caribbean Sea,” cautions Lindner.
Beryl Intensity Forecasts
Lindner says that “conditions appear unusually favorable for this time of year and location for development.” Regional hurricane models (HWRF, HOMN, HAFSA, and HAFB) all show significant deepening of this system prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Well above-normal Atlantic water temperatures and low upper-level shear support continued development.
“The main question,” says Lindner, “is how quickly can Beryl form an inner core today or tonight and what potential is the upper end limit on intensification through the Islands?”‘
Most models predict a 65 knot wind-speed increase in the next 72 hours. That far exceeds what climatology would suggest for this area for this time of year.
This morning, NHC forecasts a 110mph category 2 hurricane hitting the Windward Islands. They cautioned that their estimate might needed to be increased within the next 12-24 hours. But they increased it within six. By its 2 PM update, NHC predicted Beryl would reach major hurricane status before reaching the Windward Islands.
As Beryl moves deeper into the Caribbean Sea, wind sheer and dry air west of the storm could limit further intensification.
Lindner feels that Day 4-5 wind shear forecasts are not always reliable and the weakening trend shown on the right above may be somewhat overdone.
Another Storm Will Cross Gulf and Head into Mexico
A strong tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea has reached the eastern coast of the Yucatan and Belize. See the left hand circle in the satellite photo above.
A large area of deep convection has formed. Land interaction and westerly wind shear will inhibit immediate development. However, there may be a brief window for modest development in the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday/Monday. Then the storm should move inland over eastern Mexico. Current development odds remain around 50%.
Third Storm has 70% Chance of Formation in Atlantic
NHC indicates that a third storm will likely form in the same area where Beryl is now. See the elongated oval below.
This tropical wave is currently located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is showing signs of organization. Another tropical depression or storm may form by the middle part of next week as this wave moves westward along a similar track as Beryl. Chances for development over the next several days are 70%.
Lake Livingston Dam on Failure Watch
With all this activity in the tropics, it is somewhat disconcerting that the Trinity River Authority has placed the Lake Livingston Dam on a “Potential Failure Watch” due to recent heavy rainfall and flooding.
TRA says the dam is in no immediate danger of failing or breaching. They also say that day-to-day operations will continue, but “gate operations will vary based on conditions.” Translation: They’ll be releasing more water faster in the event of more heavy rainfall.
Look out below.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/29/24 and updated at 3PM
2496 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tree Lane Project Supposed to be Done Today, But Hasn’t Started
6/28/24 – According to Houston Public Works’ website, the Tree Lane Bridge Rehabilitation Project next to Bear Branch Elementary was to have been completed today. But construction hasn’t even started yet.
Completion Scheduled for End of June
The latest update, posted just last Thursday, shows “end of June 2024” as the promised completion date.
But as of the end of the day today, equipment hadn’t moved in approximately two months, with the exception of moving an excavator farther back from the creek when erosion crept dangerously close to it in the May floods.
Originally, Houston Public Works said construction would take 6 months. Now we have just 5 weeks before the start of the next school year.
Hurricane Approaching
Meanwhile, a tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic. And the National Hurricane Center predicts it will enter the Gulf as a hurricane approximately a week from now.
There’s still a large degree of uncertainty associated with any storm this far out. But this underscores the fact that the Tree Lane Bridge project is far behind schedule and we are likely entering a very active hurricane season.
Development this far east in late June is unusual, according to the NHC. In fact, they say, “There have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.” Some models are already predicting this could become a major hurricane (Cat 3 or 4).
The lack of Tree Lane Bridge Rehabilitation progress will expose the bridge to even more erosion if this storm strikes the Houston area. As you can see, the bridge can’t afford much more.
Reasons for Delays
On June 13, Darryl Burrell, EIT, Graduate Engineer, Capital Projects for Houston Public Works, wrote, “There have been multiple instances of utility relocations.”
He added, “Some have already been completed. Our personnel are coordinating with multiple teams and entities. We are all working to get this issue alleviated in a timely manner.”
I saw a cable company working at the location on 6/17/24, but nothing since then. That was almost two weeks ago. That swooping line in the foreground remains there today.
Editorial Comment: Enforce Deadlines
I’m not sure who is to blame, but would observe this.
As the City looks for ways to trim its budget, it should look at enforcing deadlines.
I wonder how many times contractors have had to reschedule crews around other contractors that didn’t do their jobs on time. That has to increase costs.
And one last issue. Construction delays exposed this area to even greater erosion. That may force revision of the engineering plan, construction drawings, bids, timetables and more.
Why do it once when you can do it twice? Sorry for the cynicism.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/28/24
2495 Days since Hurricane Harvey