In January, I published a post about a British firm, TropicalStormRisk.com, that predicted an extreme 2024 hurricane season. It’s still early in the year, so any forecasts have a higher-than-normal degree of uncertainty.
However, more and more forecasters and model runs are pointing to the alignment of several factors that increase hurricane/tropical activity. They include the rapid onset of La Niña, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures, lower-than-normal barometric pressures in the Gulf of Mexico and more.
La Niña Favors More Storms in Gulf
Very few tropical systems made landfall in the continental U.S. last year thanks to a strong El Niño, which tends to disrupt storms in this latitude.
However, the waning of El Niño and the rapid onset of La Niña decreases wind shear in the Atlantic. This lets more storms form and enter the Caribbean and Gulf as opposed to pushing them toward the mid-Atlantic or tearing them apart. And that supports an aggressive forecast for the 2024 Hurricane Season.
Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin also favor the formation of more hurricanes. Currently, temperatures are more typical of July than March.
Warmer water temps provide more fuel for storms and help them intensify more rapidly. This can lead to the formation of more major hurricanes and hurricanes that form closer to shore with little warning.
Other Factors Consistently Suggest Above-Normal Season
According to Garcia, the European model is also suggesting above normal precipitation in the Gulf and Caribbean and 50% more hurricanes than usual and 70% more accumulated cyclonic energy than usual for the Atlantic. That’s more cyclonic energy than the European model has ever predicted! And it has a pretty good track record in that department.
Garcia also points out that the most recent long-range runs of North American models are largely consistent with the European model.
Many Forecasters Agree
For many of the same reasons:
AccuWeather precicts a “supercharged” 2024 hurricane season.
Colorado State University and the National Hurricane Center won’t release their predictions for another month or two when uncertainty is reduced.
It’s important to note that all of these forecasts are Atlantic-basin wide and probabilistic. They predict the probable volume of activity in the hemisphere, not when or where specific storms will make landfall.
More news to follow as it becomes available.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/13/24
2388 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/20240313-Screenshot-2024-03-13-at-12.04.37%E2%80%AFPM.jpg?fit=1100%2C652&ssl=16521100adminadmin2024-03-13 13:17:012024-03-13 13:21:06Forecasters Predict Very Active 2024 Hurricane Season in Gulf
After being dredged twice since Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the River Grove boat launch is silting in again already. Recently, boaters started sending in pictures of boats that ran aground before reaching the main channel of the San Jacinto West Fork.
Increasingly Frequent Need for Dredging
The Army Corps dredged the area by the boat launch in December 2018 to open a path for the Kingwood Diversion Ditch (which runs through the park) to reach the West Fork.
Kayden Industries dredged it again in 2020 as part of an effort to clean out sediment deposits in front of the park’s riverfront boardwalk.
Before that, the Kingwood Service Association (KSA) used to dredge the area in front of the docks every 8-10 years, according to Ethel McCormick of Kingwood Association Management.
But now, less than four years after the last dredging, KSA had to commission a new side-scan sonar survey because of increasingly frequent complaints of groundings. The survey showed the entrance to the river channel has only 1-2 feet of depth.
Current River Bottom Depths
The area immediately in front of the docks has more depth than the area where the channel reaches the river. That suggests the main source of the sediment likely came from upriver, rather than from the Diversion Ditch. See below.
Area in front of River Grove Boat Launch. River-bed depths calculated by HK Dredging in hydrographic survey dated 2/23/24. Note depths at bottom of frame.
Next Steps
KSA presented the results of the survey to its member associations at a Parks Committee Meeting on March 7, 2024. At the time of the meeting, KSA had only had time to obtain one bid. So, the committee took no action. But members agreed that something needed to be done quickly and agreed to look for additional dredging proposals.
As of this writing, KSA is exploring additional options. More news to follow as recommendations firm up. The KSA Parks Committee meets the first Thursday of every month at 7PM. In April, the full KSA Board will also have a quarterly meeting and could approve any major expenditures from the Parks Reserve Fund.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/12/2024
2387 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/20240312-Screenshot-2024-03-12-at-6.51.04%E2%80%AFPM-1.jpg?fit=1100%2C656&ssl=16561100adminadmin2024-03-12 20:27:212024-03-12 20:28:13River Grove Boat Launch Silting In Again
After being dredged twice since Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the River Grove boat launch is silting in again already. Recently, boaters started sending in pictures of boats that ran aground before reaching the main channel of the San Jacinto West Fork.
Increasingly Frequent Need for Dredging
The Army Corps dredged the area by the boat launch in December 2018 to open a path for the Kingwood Diversion Ditch (which runs through the park) to reach the West Fork.
Kayden Industries dredged it again in 2020 as part of an effort to clean out sediment deposits in front of the park’s riverfront boardwalk.
Before that, the Kingwood Service Association (KSA) used to dredge the area in front of the docks every 8-10 years, according to Ethel McCormick of Kingwood Association Management.
But now, less than four years after the last dredging, KSA had to commission a new side-scan sonar survey because of increasingly frequent complaints of groundings. The survey showed the entrance to the river channel has only 1-2 feet of depth.
Current River Bottom Depths
The area immediately in front of the docks has more depth than the area where the channel reaches the river. That suggests the main source of the sediment likely came from upriver, rather than from the Diversion Ditch. See below.
Area in front of River Grove Boat Launch. River-bed depths calculated by HK Dredging in hydrographic survey dated 2/23/24.
Next Steps
KSA presented the results of the survey to its member associations at a Parks Committee Meeting on March 7, 2024. At the time of the meeting, KSA had only had time to obtain one bid. So, the committee took no action. But members agreed that something needed to be done quickly and agreed to look for additional dredging proposals.
As of this writing, KSA is exploring additional options. More news to follow as recommendations firm up. The KSA Parks Committee meets the first Thursday of every month at 7PM. In April, the full KSA Board will also have a quarterly meeting and could approve any major expenditures from the Parks Reserve Fund.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/12/2024
2387 Days since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2024-03-12 19:55:542024-03-12 20:21:21River Grove Boat Launch Silting In Again Already
Forecasters Predict Very Active 2024 Hurricane Season in Gulf
In January, I published a post about a British firm, TropicalStormRisk.com, that predicted an extreme 2024 hurricane season. It’s still early in the year, so any forecasts have a higher-than-normal degree of uncertainty.
However, more and more forecasters and model runs are pointing to the alignment of several factors that increase hurricane/tropical activity. They include the rapid onset of La Niña, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures, lower-than-normal barometric pressures in the Gulf of Mexico and more.
La Niña Favors More Storms in Gulf
Very few tropical systems made landfall in the continental U.S. last year thanks to a strong El Niño, which tends to disrupt storms in this latitude.
However, the waning of El Niño and the rapid onset of La Niña decreases wind shear in the Atlantic. This lets more storms form and enter the Caribbean and Gulf as opposed to pushing them toward the mid-Atlantic or tearing them apart. And that supports an aggressive forecast for the 2024 Hurricane Season.
Warmer-Than-Normal Sea Surface Temperatures
Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin also favor the formation of more hurricanes. Currently, temperatures are more typical of July than March.
Warmer water temps provide more fuel for storms and help them intensify more rapidly. This can lead to the formation of more major hurricanes and hurricanes that form closer to shore with little warning.
This may be related to the warmest winter on record – 5.4 degrees above average through February, according to NOAA.
Below Normal Barometric Pressures in Gulf and Caribbean
The European Model is also suggesting something not seen in recent years – below normal barometric pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean.
Other Factors Consistently Suggest Above-Normal Season
According to Garcia, the European model is also suggesting above normal precipitation in the Gulf and Caribbean and 50% more hurricanes than usual and 70% more accumulated cyclonic energy than usual for the Atlantic. That’s more cyclonic energy than the European model has ever predicted! And it has a pretty good track record in that department.
Garcia also points out that the most recent long-range runs of North American models are largely consistent with the European model.
Many Forecasters Agree
For many of the same reasons:
Colorado State University and the National Hurricane Center won’t release their predictions for another month or two when uncertainty is reduced.
It’s important to note that all of these forecasts are Atlantic-basin wide and probabilistic. They predict the probable volume of activity in the hemisphere, not when or where specific storms will make landfall.
More news to follow as it becomes available.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/13/24
2388 Days since Hurricane Harvey
River Grove Boat Launch Silting In Again
After being dredged twice since Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the River Grove boat launch is silting in again already. Recently, boaters started sending in pictures of boats that ran aground before reaching the main channel of the San Jacinto West Fork.
Increasingly Frequent Need for Dredging
The Army Corps dredged the area by the boat launch in December 2018 to open a path for the Kingwood Diversion Ditch (which runs through the park) to reach the West Fork.
Kayden Industries dredged it again in 2020 as part of an effort to clean out sediment deposits in front of the park’s riverfront boardwalk.
Before that, the Kingwood Service Association (KSA) used to dredge the area in front of the docks every 8-10 years, according to Ethel McCormick of Kingwood Association Management.
But now, less than four years after the last dredging, KSA had to commission a new side-scan sonar survey because of increasingly frequent complaints of groundings. The survey showed the entrance to the river channel has only 1-2 feet of depth.
Current River Bottom Depths
The area immediately in front of the docks has more depth than the area where the channel reaches the river. That suggests the main source of the sediment likely came from upriver, rather than from the Diversion Ditch. See below.
Area in front of River Grove Boat Launch. River-bed depths calculated by HK Dredging in hydrographic survey dated 2/23/24. Note depths at bottom of frame.
Next Steps
KSA presented the results of the survey to its member associations at a Parks Committee Meeting on March 7, 2024. At the time of the meeting, KSA had only had time to obtain one bid. So, the committee took no action. But members agreed that something needed to be done quickly and agreed to look for additional dredging proposals.
As of this writing, KSA is exploring additional options. More news to follow as recommendations firm up. The KSA Parks Committee meets the first Thursday of every month at 7PM. In April, the full KSA Board will also have a quarterly meeting and could approve any major expenditures from the Parks Reserve Fund.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/12/2024
2387 Days since Hurricane Harvey
River Grove Boat Launch Silting In Again Already
After being dredged twice since Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the River Grove boat launch is silting in again already. Recently, boaters started sending in pictures of boats that ran aground before reaching the main channel of the San Jacinto West Fork.
Increasingly Frequent Need for Dredging
The Army Corps dredged the area by the boat launch in December 2018 to open a path for the Kingwood Diversion Ditch (which runs through the park) to reach the West Fork.
Kayden Industries dredged it again in 2020 as part of an effort to clean out sediment deposits in front of the park’s riverfront boardwalk.
Before that, the Kingwood Service Association (KSA) used to dredge the area in front of the docks every 8-10 years, according to Ethel McCormick of Kingwood Association Management.
But now, less than four years after the last dredging, KSA had to commission a new side-scan sonar survey because of increasingly frequent complaints of groundings. The survey showed the entrance to the river channel has only 1-2 feet of depth.
Current River Bottom Depths
The area immediately in front of the docks has more depth than the area where the channel reaches the river. That suggests the main source of the sediment likely came from upriver, rather than from the Diversion Ditch. See below.
Next Steps
KSA presented the results of the survey to its member associations at a Parks Committee Meeting on March 7, 2024. At the time of the meeting, KSA had only had time to obtain one bid. So, the committee took no action. But members agreed that something needed to be done quickly and agreed to look for additional dredging proposals.
As of this writing, KSA is exploring additional options. More news to follow as recommendations firm up. The KSA Parks Committee meets the first Thursday of every month at 7PM. In April, the full KSA Board will also have a quarterly meeting and could approve any major expenditures from the Parks Reserve Fund.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/12/2024
2387 Days since Hurricane Harvey