9/6/24 – Between yesterday and today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico for next week. Yesterday, NHC gave that orange area a 10% chance of development in the next seven days. Earlier this afternoon, they updated that to 40%. And by this evening, they upgraded it again to 50%.
Also, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a gale watch for offshore waters tomorrow. And NWS predicts another 4-10 inches of rain for the Houston area next week.
Tropical Activity Heating Up
According to the National Hurricane Center, “A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.”
Tropical outlook as of 1:50 PM EDT, 9/6/24
Here’s what those two areas currently look like on a satellite photo.
Tropics at 3:30PM CDT on 9/6/24
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea and the surface low over the NW Gulf will merge over the western Gulf going into early next week. As high pressure over the plains moves eastward the steering flow will turn to the south and begin to lift whatever is in the western Gulf northward toward the TX coast.”
Another 4-10 Inches of Rain Predicted for Next Week
Lindner predicts increasing moisture late Monday with a much more significant surge of moisture coming into the area starting on Tuesday. Regardless of tropical formation, rains will spread northward from the Gulf into the Houston area. Heavy rainfall looks possible into the middle of next week.
The National Weather Service predicts accumulations in the next seven days could range from 4-10 inches in the Houston region. The larger accumulations will be near the coast. Rainfall totals offshore could range up to 20 inches!
Compare dark to light green peaks in bottom graph.
High Winds, Gale Watch Saturday
The National Weather Service has issued a gale watch for Saturday morning through evening as high pressure pushes the moisture currently over us to the south and then east.
Ironically, this will usher in drier weather for Sunday, but it will make boating dangerous on Saturday. North winds will average 25-35 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Seas will average 9-11 feet.
Peak of Hurricane Season Just Days Away
Earlier this year, experts predicted an extremely active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. But so far, we’ve had only five named storms.
And the peak of hurricane season occurs on September 10 with the most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
Best to bookmark the National Hurricane Center home page and check it daily for the next few weeks. This is the time of year when NHC updates its site every few hours. So, they have the most up-to-date forecasts and they are the acknowledged source of definitive information about tropical systems.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/6/2024
2565 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/two_atl_7d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-09-06 16:46:352024-09-06 18:37:46Chances of Tropical Formation in Gulf Increasing for Next Week
9/5/2024 – The Congressional Budget Office has produced a series of reports that provides a wealth of flood data.
Economist Evan Herrnstadt, Ph.D., was interviewed today in a First Street Foundation webinar. He has produced an impressive, data-packed series of reports on different aspects of flooding for public-policy makers. Herrnstadt is the Principal Analyst in the Microeconomic Studies Division of the Congressional Budget Office.
Nine Studies Examine Financial, Demographic Impacts of Flooding
To make his team’s work easier to find and review, I’ve posted their studies on the Reports Page of ReduceFlooding.com under a new Congressional Budget Office Tab. Below are links to and one sentence descriptions for each of the nine reports.
Climate Work provides an overview of several different studies and presents key findings. It’s a good starting point.
Effects of Flood Damage on the Subsidy Cost of Federally Backed Mortgages. Uses data on mortgages and expected flood damage for each residential property in the United States to examine how much flood damage is expected to increase the cost of federally backed mortgages (referred to as the subsidy cost).
Flood Insurance in Communities at Risk of Flooding. Examines how properties at risk of flooding share the cost of NFIP policies across communities with different economic and demographic characteristics.
Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and Homeowner’s Insurance. Analyzes recent changes in property insurance markets and considers alternative insurance products as well as policy approaches to increase the availability and affordability of insurance for homeowners and renters.
Communities at Risk of Flooding. Examines how projected flood risk varies across communities with different economic and demographic characteristics in two multiyear projection periods, one centered on 2020 and the other centered on 2050.
The wealth of flood data in these reports is national, not local. Regardless, good economists have a way of clearing out the cobwebs. And Herrnstadt clearly knows how to put things in perspective. I will refer to these reports from time to time in the future.
For now, let me just quote a couple eye-bulging stats from the last report. “Flood Damage avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations” looks at buyouts and home elevations. When looking at 1.3 million homes, Herrnstadt found that avoided costs averaged $2.69 for every $1 invested. If those projects were all completed, they would cost a total of $193 billion and prevent $519 billion of expected damages during the next 30 years.
In extreme cases, Herrnstadt found the payback ratio could be 6 to 1. And that doesn’t even include “pain and suffering” costs associated with flood damage.
This data shows how we could be saving hundreds of billions of dollars. These reports are literally gold mines of data.
For the First Street Foundation’s interview with Herrnstadt, see this YouTube video.
Learn more about the purpose and methodologies of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/5/24
2564 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Avoid-Damage-Per-Dollar-Spent.png?fit=2108%2C1596&ssl=115962108adminadmin2024-09-05 18:41:302024-09-06 09:06:21Congressional Budget Office Provides Wealth of Flood Data
More than 2000 years ago, Aristotle coined the phrase, “Nature abhors a vacuum.” But in the case of River Grove Park since Beryl, it should be, “Nature enjoys a vacuum.”
Flooded out, sanded in, and still under repair from May flooding and Beryl, humans may be visiting River Grove Park less frequently these days. But nature is filling the void.
Park Still Has Plenty to Offer
The park still has plenty to offer. I drove there today to test some new camera gear and found the park practically deserted.
A few people were using the boardwalk.
The soccer fields and playground were empty.
Disc golf is undergoing major repairs as crews clear dozens of fallen trees (from Beryl).
The main parking lot was virtually empty, thanks to sand blocking the boat dock.
So, I didn’t get the sports action shots I thought I might see. But I got something equally as impressive. Nature…up close and unspoiled.
Instead of water skiers and fishermen, great blue herons and great egrets stalked the shallows at the entrance to the Kingwood Diversion Ditch by the boat dock.
Great egret dining near the boat dock.As I crept closer, the egret prepared to swallow its catch.Note the drop of water dripping from the beak.Gulp…and it was gone.Farther out in the river, beyond the newly deposited sand bar, a great blue heron staged its own fishing expedition.
Even though River Grove repairs are far from complete, the park still has much to offer nature lovers.
Dredging Prospects
For now, the boat dock is still open for canoes, kayaks, jet skies, and other smaller watercraft that can get over the sand bar. KSA and the City are currently waiting to hear from FEMA about a possible grant to dredge the mouth of the channel. So enjoy the natural aspects of the park while you can.
Many thanks to the Kingwood Service Association for maintaining this precious gem for all Kingwood residents. Even those with feathers.
Posted by Bob Rehak
2563 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/20240904-DSC_0368.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2024-09-04 17:09:172024-09-05 17:49:35Nature Enjoys a Vacuum
Chances of Tropical Formation in Gulf Increasing for Next Week
9/6/24 – Between yesterday and today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico for next week. Yesterday, NHC gave that orange area a 10% chance of development in the next seven days. Earlier this afternoon, they updated that to 40%. And by this evening, they upgraded it again to 50%.
Also, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a gale watch for offshore waters tomorrow. And NWS predicts another 4-10 inches of rain for the Houston area next week.
Tropical Activity Heating Up
According to the National Hurricane Center, “A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.”
Here’s what those two areas currently look like on a satellite photo.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea and the surface low over the NW Gulf will merge over the western Gulf going into early next week. As high pressure over the plains moves eastward the steering flow will turn to the south and begin to lift whatever is in the western Gulf northward toward the TX coast.”
Another 4-10 Inches of Rain Predicted for Next Week
Lindner predicts increasing moisture late Monday with a much more significant surge of moisture coming into the area starting on Tuesday. Regardless of tropical formation, rains will spread northward from the Gulf into the Houston area. Heavy rainfall looks possible into the middle of next week.
The National Weather Service predicts accumulations in the next seven days could range from 4-10 inches in the Houston region. The larger accumulations will be near the coast. Rainfall totals offshore could range up to 20 inches!
We’ve already achieved our average rainfall for the year. Yet we have almost 4 months yet to go.
High Winds, Gale Watch Saturday
The National Weather Service has issued a gale watch for Saturday morning through evening as high pressure pushes the moisture currently over us to the south and then east.
Ironically, this will usher in drier weather for Sunday, but it will make boating dangerous on Saturday. North winds will average 25-35 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Seas will average 9-11 feet.
Peak of Hurricane Season Just Days Away
Earlier this year, experts predicted an extremely active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. But so far, we’ve had only five named storms.
That puts us three behind the average for the last 30 years. Usually, we get the eighth named storm of the season by September 9th.
And the peak of hurricane season occurs on September 10 with the most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
Best to bookmark the National Hurricane Center home page and check it daily for the next few weeks. This is the time of year when NHC updates its site every few hours. So, they have the most up-to-date forecasts and they are the acknowledged source of definitive information about tropical systems.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/6/2024
2565 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Congressional Budget Office Provides Wealth of Flood Data
9/5/2024 – The Congressional Budget Office has produced a series of reports that provides a wealth of flood data.
Economist Evan Herrnstadt, Ph.D., was interviewed today in a First Street Foundation webinar. He has produced an impressive, data-packed series of reports on different aspects of flooding for public-policy makers. Herrnstadt is the Principal Analyst in the Microeconomic Studies Division of the Congressional Budget Office.
Nine Studies Examine Financial, Demographic Impacts of Flooding
To make his team’s work easier to find and review, I’ve posted their studies on the Reports Page of ReduceFlooding.com under a new Congressional Budget Office Tab. Below are links to and one sentence descriptions for each of the nine reports.
Clearing out the Cobwebs
The wealth of flood data in these reports is national, not local. Regardless, good economists have a way of clearing out the cobwebs. And Herrnstadt clearly knows how to put things in perspective. I will refer to these reports from time to time in the future.
For now, let me just quote a couple eye-bulging stats from the last report. “Flood Damage avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations” looks at buyouts and home elevations. When looking at 1.3 million homes, Herrnstadt found that avoided costs averaged $2.69 for every $1 invested. If those projects were all completed, they would cost a total of $193 billion and prevent $519 billion of expected damages during the next 30 years.
In extreme cases, Herrnstadt found the payback ratio could be 6 to 1. And that doesn’t even include “pain and suffering” costs associated with flood damage.
This data shows how we could be saving hundreds of billions of dollars. These reports are literally gold mines of data.
For the First Street Foundation’s interview with Herrnstadt, see this YouTube video.
Learn more about the purpose and methodologies of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/5/24
2564 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Nature Enjoys a Vacuum
More than 2000 years ago, Aristotle coined the phrase, “Nature abhors a vacuum.” But in the case of River Grove Park since Beryl, it should be, “Nature enjoys a vacuum.”
Flooded out, sanded in, and still under repair from May flooding and Beryl, humans may be visiting River Grove Park less frequently these days. But nature is filling the void.
Park Still Has Plenty to Offer
The park still has plenty to offer. I drove there today to test some new camera gear and found the park practically deserted.
So, I didn’t get the sports action shots I thought I might see. But I got something equally as impressive. Nature…up close and unspoiled.
Instead of water skiers and fishermen, great blue herons and great egrets stalked the shallows at the entrance to the Kingwood Diversion Ditch by the boat dock.
Even though River Grove repairs are far from complete, the park still has much to offer nature lovers.
Dredging Prospects
For now, the boat dock is still open for canoes, kayaks, jet skies, and other smaller watercraft that can get over the sand bar. KSA and the City are currently waiting to hear from FEMA about a possible grant to dredge the mouth of the channel. So enjoy the natural aspects of the park while you can.
Many thanks to the Kingwood Service Association for maintaining this precious gem for all Kingwood residents. Even those with feathers.
Posted by Bob Rehak
2563 Days since Hurricane Harvey