9/9/24 – 7 PM update – Francine is strengthening faster than expected. Current sustained winds are 65 MPH and NHC predicts the storm will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall.The post below was written at 2PM this afternoon.
This morning Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 intensified and formed a center of circulation. With winds currently at 60 MPH, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) named it Tropical Storm Francine. NHC expects it to intensify into a hurricane tomorrow. Francine’s current predicted track will take it inland over Louisiana.
At the moment, models suggest the worst of the storm will miss Houston to the south and the east.
At 1 PM CDT, TS Francine was still between Brownsville, TX and the Yucatan.
Watches and Warnings Now In Effect
As of Monday at 2 PM CDT, NHC had issued the following watches and warnings:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
Vermilion Bay
Lake Maurepas
Lake Pontchartrain
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
Lake Pontchartrain
Lake Maurepas
Likely Track
The western edge of the cone of uncertainty extends westward to far east Texas.
Note, however, that the cone does not indicate the width of the storm. It simply means that the center of the storm has an equal chance of passing over every point within the cone. Because the storm is currently 160 miles wide, if Francine made landfall toward the western edge of the cone, the Houston area could see significant impacts.
Still, models agree that the storm will likely make landfall in Louisiana.
Storm Surge
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to flood from rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay…5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA…3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk-reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.
Winds Approaching 86 MPH
Francine is moving at 5 MPH. NHC expects winds to peak at 75 knots (86 MPH) within 48 hours. That would make Francine a Category 1 Hurricane. Cat 1 ranges from 74 to 95 MPH.
The highest winds will likely focus on southern Louisiana.
Tropical storm force winds could be felt in the Houston area as early as late tomorrow afternoon into evening.
However, the most likely arrival times will be approximately 12 hours earlier.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, feels, “There is a 30-50% chance of TS force winds on Wednesday along the upper Texas coast and a 10-20% chance of tropical-storm-force winds across the metro-Houston area.”
“Squalls and bands of rain will begin to move into the outer coastal waters on Tuesday and spread toward the coast. Some of the activity is likely to impact the coastal counties Tuesday night into Wednesday depending on the exact track.”
“Hurricane conditions may graze our outer coastal waters Wednesday afternoon, but at this time the probability of sustained hurricane force winds along the upper Texas coast is generally 5-10% from roughly Freeport to Sabine Pass,” said Lindner.
Rainfall and Flooding
According to NHC, Francine will bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding to portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.
Lindner predicts, “Rainfall amounts over SE TX have generally been pulled back some with the eastward track shifts and it is likely the core of heaviest rainfall will remain offshore. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected along the coast with amounts of generally less than an inch inland of US 59.”
Whew. Keep your fingers crossed and hope that Francine stays south of us. We haven’t even finished cleanup from Beryl yet.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/24 at 2PM
2568 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 63 since Beryl
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/154133_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-09-09 14:29:582024-09-09 19:58:07TS Francine Will Now Likely Strike East of Houston
9/8/24 – At 4 PM, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 (PTC 6). PTC 6 is currently an elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
PTC 6 is currently trying to organize over the Bay of Campeche.Satellite photo from Sept. 8, 2024, at 3 PM CDT.
Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds should reach the Houston area by Tuesday night. And the system should become a hurricane by Wednesday afternoon. (See graphics below.)
Tropical-storm-force winds already extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center.
Wind-Speed Classifications
Tropical cyclones rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. They are classified as follows:
Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less.
Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots).
Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher.
Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph (96 knots) or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Models suggest the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 should become well defined by tomorrow afternoon. Until then, the track forecast remains very uncertain.
Life-Threatening Storm Surge
According to the NHC, it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts. However, NHC warns that the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines beginning Tuesday night.
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding.
Graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6
CenterPoint Warning
At 2:45 CDT, CenterPoint Energy texted warnings to customers. “We continue to monitor and prepare for a potential tropical system in the Gulf which may impact the Greater Houston area over the next few days.”
The text continued, “We encourage you to prepare an emergency plan. Customers who depend on electricity for life-sustaining equipment are encouraged to make alternate arrangements for on-site backup capabilities or other alternatives in the event of loss of electric service. For safety tips, visit CenterPointEnergy.com/StormCenter.”
After Beryl, I purchased power system that can be charged by solar panels. I’m feeling pretty good about that purchase now.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/8/24based on information from NHC
2567 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/210159_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-09-08 16:40:542024-09-08 17:59:24NHC Issues Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6
9/7/24 – For seven years, I have focused on ways to reduce flooding. But today, I’d like to discuss a big way not to reduce flooding – by deferring maintenance.
Deferring Maintenance: A Bad Idea
One of the most common root causes of flooding that I see is delayed, deferred, overlooked and/or ignored maintenance. You wouldn’t buy a new car and not maintain it. It’s the same way with flood control. But that’s what we’ve been doing.
If you build a channel or a ditch, you should budget routine inspections, and periodic repairs and maintenance.
For a dramatic example, see the two photos below. As I was driving south on Loop 494 this afternoon, I saw a scene near East Memorial Drive that reminded me of a preventable flooding disaster in Porter back in 2018.
Local businesses flooded when the ditch below at the end of the road backed water up.
TxDOT improved the ditch that caused the flooding above. But guess what? The blockage is back. I took the picture below this afternoon.
Blocked ditch on Loop 494 and Memorial Drivein Porter, Montgomery County.
Mike Eberle, a business owner nearby who flooded back in 2018, dubbed this area the Porter Dam. Oops. Back where we started.
The ditch has silted in. And vegetation is growing up through the grate. Meanwhile, debris washed down the ditch and has blocked it even more. It’s only a matter of time before flooding recurs.
Will clearing the Porter Dam be high on TxDOT’s to-do list in the next five days? Probably not. Even though the rain predicted could exceed the amount that caused the flooding above.
Deferred Maintenance: A Problem Everywhere
Deferred maintenance is a huge problem everywhere, not just in Montgomery County or on TxDOT roads. And it’s not just vegetation management.
Erosion, when ignored, can run wild and threaten homes. In the case below, it was neglected so long that trees fell into the ditch and blocked it, backing water up.
Eroded ditch in Huffman. Erosion like this didn’t happen overnight.Eroding ditch in Liberty County has grown more than 80 feet in width in just 10 years and now threatens homes.
And wherever sediment accumulates, it can cause ditches to lose much of their ability to convey stormwater. Bens Branch, for instance, was down to a “2-year level-of-service” in places. That means, water would come out of the banks after a two-year rain. See the first picture below.
Bens Branch at Rocky Woods in January 2021 before start of clean-out project. Over the years, deferred maintenance had reduced the conveyance of the stream.
However, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) initiated a clean-out effort to restore the conveyance of Ben’s Branch from Northpark Drive to Kings Harbor. In this section alone, HCFCD removed more than 10,000 cubic yards of accumulated sediment.
Same area four months later after restoration. Greenish substance on banks is hydromulch.
Plea for Tax Increase to Improve Maintenance
In Harris County, HCFCD created this presentation on deferred maintenance for Commissioners Court consideration on 8/15/24. It makes the case for a potential tax increase which voters will be asked to approve on November 5.
Key points:
We have a huge amount of drainage infrastructure requiring regular maintenance.
Much of the infrastructure is nearing the end of its useful life (when it costs more to maintain).
And every year, we add more and more infrastructure requiring more maintenance.
But investment in maintenance has been flat over time (see graph below).
Maintenance investment has lagged behind capital improvement spending by as much as 9 to 1.
Flood control is asking for an additional $110 million for its maintenance budget to help remedy these problems. Any increase in tax revenue would go to the HCFCD’s dedicated maintenance account. Those funds are marked specifically for maintenance efforts and support services, according to Emily Woodell, a department spokesperson.
Fool Me Twice?
I can support the HCFCD request. But before I vote for it, I want to see language in the proposal that guarantees it won’t all be spent somewhere else. I’d also like to see language that revokes the tax increase if it is. Or if:
Maintenance is delayed here longer than anywhere else.
Social factors, not flood risk, determine the distribution of dollars.
County leaders try to redefine the commonly accepted, dictionary meanings of terms like “equity” or “worst.”
We’ve been burned by certain commissioners who flagrantly renege on promises made in Commissioners Court. I won’t let that happen again. As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
I intend to read this proposition very, very closely. And when I step into the voting booth, I won’t be hoping for the best. I’ll be fearing how I’ll get screwed again, exactly like we did with the 2018 and 2022 Bonds.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/24
2566 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/CommonsErosion07-copy.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2024-09-07 20:33:522024-09-20 12:21:03How NOT to Reduce Flooding: Deferring Maintenance
TS Francine Will Now Likely Strike East of Houston
9/9/24 – 7 PM update – Francine is strengthening faster than expected. Current sustained winds are 65 MPH and NHC predicts the storm will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. The post below was written at 2PM this afternoon.
This morning Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 intensified and formed a center of circulation. With winds currently at 60 MPH, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) named it Tropical Storm Francine. NHC expects it to intensify into a hurricane tomorrow. Francine’s current predicted track will take it inland over Louisiana.
At the moment, models suggest the worst of the storm will miss Houston to the south and the east.
Watches and Warnings Now In Effect
As of Monday at 2 PM CDT, NHC had issued the following watches and warnings:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
Likely Track
The western edge of the cone of uncertainty extends westward to far east Texas.
Note, however, that the cone does not indicate the width of the storm. It simply means that the center of the storm has an equal chance of passing over every point within the cone. Because the storm is currently 160 miles wide, if Francine made landfall toward the western edge of the cone, the Houston area could see significant impacts.
Still, models agree that the storm will likely make landfall in Louisiana.
Storm Surge
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to flood from
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk-reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.
Winds Approaching 86 MPH
Francine is moving at 5 MPH. NHC expects winds to peak at 75 knots (86 MPH) within 48 hours. That would make Francine a Category 1 Hurricane. Cat 1 ranges from 74 to 95 MPH.
The highest winds will likely focus on southern Louisiana.
Tropical storm force winds could be felt in the Houston area as early as late tomorrow afternoon into evening.
However, the most likely arrival times will be approximately 12 hours earlier.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, feels, “There is a 30-50% chance of TS force winds on Wednesday along the upper Texas coast and a 10-20% chance of tropical-storm-force winds across the metro-Houston area.”
“Squalls and bands of rain will begin to move into the outer coastal waters on Tuesday and spread toward the coast. Some of the activity is likely to impact the coastal counties Tuesday night into Wednesday depending on the exact track.”
“Hurricane conditions may graze our outer coastal waters Wednesday afternoon, but at this time the probability of sustained hurricane force winds along the upper Texas coast is generally 5-10% from roughly Freeport to Sabine Pass,” said Lindner.
Rainfall and Flooding
According to NHC, Francine will bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding to portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.
Lindner predicts, “Rainfall amounts over SE TX have generally been pulled back some with the eastward track shifts and it is likely the core of heaviest rainfall will remain offshore. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected along the coast with amounts of generally less than an inch inland of US 59.”
Whew. Keep your fingers crossed and hope that Francine stays south of us. We haven’t even finished cleanup from Beryl yet.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/24 at 2PM
2568 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 63 since Beryl
NHC Issues Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6
9/8/24 – At 4 PM, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 (PTC 6). PTC 6 is currently an elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds should reach the Houston area by Tuesday night. And the system should become a hurricane by Wednesday afternoon. (See graphics below.)
Tropical-storm-force winds already extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center.
Wind-Speed Classifications
Tropical cyclones rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. They are classified as follows:
Models suggest the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 should become well defined by tomorrow afternoon. Until then, the track forecast remains very uncertain.
Life-Threatening Storm Surge
According to the NHC, it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts. However, NHC warns that the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines beginning Tuesday night.
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding.
Graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6
CenterPoint Warning
At 2:45 CDT, CenterPoint Energy texted warnings to customers. “We continue to monitor and prepare for a potential tropical system in the Gulf which may impact the Greater Houston area over the next few days.”
The text continued, “We encourage you to prepare an emergency plan. Customers who depend on electricity for life-sustaining equipment are encouraged to make alternate arrangements for on-site backup capabilities or other alternatives in the event of loss of electric service. For safety tips, visit CenterPointEnergy.com/StormCenter.”
After Beryl, I purchased power system that can be charged by solar panels. I’m feeling pretty good about that purchase now.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/8/24 based on information from NHC
2567 Days since Hurricane Harvey
How NOT to Reduce Flooding: Deferring Maintenance
9/7/24 – For seven years, I have focused on ways to reduce flooding. But today, I’d like to discuss a big way not to reduce flooding – by deferring maintenance.
Deferring Maintenance: A Bad Idea
One of the most common root causes of flooding that I see is delayed, deferred, overlooked and/or ignored maintenance. You wouldn’t buy a new car and not maintain it. It’s the same way with flood control. But that’s what we’ve been doing.
If you build a channel or a ditch, you should budget routine inspections, and periodic repairs and maintenance.
For a dramatic example, see the two photos below. As I was driving south on Loop 494 this afternoon, I saw a scene near East Memorial Drive that reminded me of a preventable flooding disaster in Porter back in 2018.
TxDOT improved the ditch that caused the flooding above. But guess what? The blockage is back. I took the picture below this afternoon.
Mike Eberle, a business owner nearby who flooded back in 2018, dubbed this area the Porter Dam. Oops. Back where we started.
The ditch has silted in. And vegetation is growing up through the grate. Meanwhile, debris washed down the ditch and has blocked it even more. It’s only a matter of time before flooding recurs.
And just when we have a potential tropical storm brewing in the gulf. The National Hurricane Center gives it an 80% chance of formation within the next five days.
Will clearing the Porter Dam be high on TxDOT’s to-do list in the next five days? Probably not. Even though the rain predicted could exceed the amount that caused the flooding above.
Deferred Maintenance: A Problem Everywhere
Deferred maintenance is a huge problem everywhere, not just in Montgomery County or on TxDOT roads. And it’s not just vegetation management.
Erosion, when ignored, can run wild and threaten homes. In the case below, it was neglected so long that trees fell into the ditch and blocked it, backing water up.
And wherever sediment accumulates, it can cause ditches to lose much of their ability to convey stormwater. Bens Branch, for instance, was down to a “2-year level-of-service” in places. That means, water would come out of the banks after a two-year rain. See the first picture below.
However, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) initiated a clean-out effort to restore the conveyance of Ben’s Branch from Northpark Drive to Kings Harbor. In this section alone, HCFCD removed more than 10,000 cubic yards of accumulated sediment.
Plea for Tax Increase to Improve Maintenance
In Harris County, HCFCD created this presentation on deferred maintenance for Commissioners Court consideration on 8/15/24. It makes the case for a potential tax increase which voters will be asked to approve on November 5.
Key points:
Flood control is asking for an additional $110 million for its maintenance budget to help remedy these problems. Any increase in tax revenue would go to the HCFCD’s dedicated maintenance account. Those funds are marked specifically for maintenance efforts and support services, according to Emily Woodell, a department spokesperson.
Fool Me Twice?
I can support the HCFCD request. But before I vote for it, I want to see language in the proposal that guarantees it won’t all be spent somewhere else. I’d also like to see language that revokes the tax increase if it is. Or if:
We’ve been burned by certain commissioners who flagrantly renege on promises made in Commissioners Court. I won’t let that happen again. As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
I intend to read this proposition very, very closely. And when I step into the voting booth, I won’t be hoping for the best. I’ll be fearing how I’ll get screwed again, exactly like we did with the 2018 and 2022 Bonds.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/24
2566 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.