Mobilization for the next phase of San Jacinto West Fork dredging is underway. The City of Houston and its contractor DRC (a subsidiary of Callan Marine) are already staging equipment in two places on the West Fork.
The program, funded by FEMA, will remove an estimated 800,000 cubic yards of silt and sediment between the original location of the West Fork Mouth Bar and FM1960. The contractor will use primarily hydraulic dredging and the program will take approximately two years, according to District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger.
West Fork Dredging Project Dates Back to Dave Martin Era
Flickinger credits his predecessor, former Council Member Dave Martin, and Chief Recovery Officer Stephen Costello’s tireless efforts in protesting the initial amount proposed for dredging by FEMA back in 2019. FEMA’s initial proposal, based on a four-page, table-top study produced by the Army Corps, called for dredging 283,000 cubic yards.
Martin strongly disagreed with the Corps’ report and appealed it while the City produced its own 94-page technical report. It showed a much higher volume deposited by Harvey. Remember: Harvey funds could not be used to address sediment deposited before Harvey. The City report produced by Tetra Tech relied extensively on core samples. Tetra Tech proved that Harvey laid down the sand in the mouth bar and that the dredging volume should be closer to a million cubic yards.
The new West Fork dredging program should be ready to go within weeks. DRC is currently bringing in the equipment that they will need.
DRC plans to use primarily hydraulic dredging. They will attack the area between where the mouth bar was (south of Scenic Shores in Kings Point) and the FM1960 Bridge. See map below.
Map from City study showing area of focus.Hydraulic dredge being assembled at old Army Corps mobilization site south of Forest Cove pool. Photo taken 4/1/24.DRC is also starting to stockpile mechanical dredging equipment such as these pontoons on Berry Madden’s property south of River Grove Park (top center).
This is good news. The new West Fork dredging will help ensure that water doesn’t back up like it did before. It’s not a guarantee against flooding. Dredging is only one part of a multi-faceted mitigation program that also includes more upstream detention and new floodgates on the Lake Houston dam. More news on those topics to follow.
Posted by Bob Rehak
2407 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/20240401-DJI_20240401153614_0090_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-04-01 19:21:112024-04-01 21:31:29City Mobilizing for More West Fork Dredging
Colony Ridge, the controversial Latino development in Liberty county, has grown at least 50% larger than Manhattan in about a decade. How many people live there? No one knows for sure. Colony Ridge population estimates vary widely. And that has ominous implications for planners.
Most of Colony Ridge falls within Census tract 7003.02. The Census Bureau estimates that, in 2023, 13,573 people lived there, even though Colony Ridge occupies only about two thirds of the census tract.
Based on that, one might conclude that the Census Bureau believes about 10,000 people live in Colony Ridge. But the local school district estimates 80,000 people live there. Who’s right? And why does it matter?
What’s at Stake
A precise answer is important for many reasons: Congressional representation for Texas is at stake. So is planning for water supply, schools, traffic, law enforcement, flood mitigation, and more. Yet precise answers are elusive.
Why the Wide Variation?
Last year, I interviewed Congressman Brian Babin’s chief of staff. Babin represents Colony Ridge in Congress.
Babin’s chief told me about the problems that Census takers had in Colony Ridge back in 2020. To summarize, as many as two, three, or even four families often live together in one home. And often, they don’t want to be counted. Reportedly, many fear discovery and deportation because they entered the U.S. illegally. So they are under-reported.
In an interview with Blaze Media, Liberty County Sheriff Bobby Rader was asked if he has any idea how many Colony Ridge residents are here illegally. Rader replied (at 26:23 into the video), “… the majority of the people out there are illegal aliens.”
Rader’s observation is consistent with U.S. Border Patrol reports of record-high migrant encounters – more than a quarter million in last December alone at the Mexican border.
Yet the Census Bureau estimates that only about 50 people per year move to ALL of Liberty County as a result of international immigration and Colony Ridge is reputedly the largest, fastest growing colonia in the country.
Estimates contradict each other.
Who to Believe?
On the low end, in round numbers, the Census Bureau believes about 10,000 people live in Colony Ridge. On the high end, based on enrollment, the Cleveland ISD superintendent believes about 80,000 live there.
At 29:45 into the Blaze video, Cleveland ISD Superintendent Stephen McCanless says, “What we’re finding down there (in Colony Ridge) is that you have multiple families living in one house with four, five, six and sometimes seven children in one house.” At 28:14, McCanless says “District enrollment is usually 10% of your total community population. That tells me that we should have about 80,000 people living there.”
While the superintendent has an actual head count, he’s counting children, not adults. The Pew Foundation found that Hispanics are far more likely than Whites to have large families with four or more children today. That’s one possible source of error when comparing to historic, largely White norms.
The superintendent is also not counting Colony Ridge children whose parents enroll them in Montgomery County schools not far away. According to anecdotal reports, that number could be substantial.
John Harris, the developer, splits the difference between the Census Bureau and the ISD. He estimates the current population of Colony Ridge at approximately 35,000 at 3:22 into the Blaze video. But Harris is basing his estimate on “lots sold,” not residents per lot.
Deeply Flawed Population Estimates Will Affect Planning
Conclusion: all these contradictory population estimates have flaws. And that makes planning an exercise in guesswork. Let’s take the example of water. It’s necessary to sustain life, yet planning large scale water projects can take decades. Most take up to 50 years.
If Colony Ridge grew by 80,000 people in roughly 10 years, will there be enough water in the aquifers to support a quarter million in another 20 years? If not, where will the water come from?
I talked to one long-term resident of neighboring Plum Grove whose well ran dry recently. She and her neighbor both had to drill their wells lower.
At that point, the fight for water rights would pit Liberty County’s traditional farm-based population against newcomers, more than half of whom by the Sheriff’s estimate are illegal aliens. I don’t see that battle ending well…for anyone.
Missing Documents: Skirting State and County Water Regulations
To avoid surprises like this, Liberty County requires proof of a 30-year water supply before it approves plats. See Section 8.2 of Liberty County Subdivision Regulations. So does the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC) of Texas.
Yet when Maria Acevedo, a former landowner in Colony Ridge, requested such proof, neither Liberty County, the TCEQ, nor PUC could supply it. That’s scary.
Can an area where at least 30% of the population lives below the poverty line afford that investment? Colony Ridge has already shown that its corner-cutting business model can’t afford to meet Liberty County fire hydrant and drainage regulations.
The issue is sustainability. As aquifers deplete, land subsides. And Colony Ridge already has flooding problems.
Subsidence can make that worse by creating a bowl in the landscape that reduces the gradient of streams. That slows down floodwaters and makes them peak higher, faster – especially when surrounding development has insufficient stormwater detention like Colony Ridge.
It’s time to do some mid-course correction while there’s still time.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/31/24 with thanks to Michael Shrader for his research on population
2406 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
In the last three weeks, the Northpark expansion project has made slow, but steady progress, despite the fact that Entergy still has not moved any power poles or its transformer. For the moment, contractors seem to be working around the absentee utility issues, which have lingered for four years.
The bulk of activity has focused on the two stormwater detention basins near US59; drainage between 59 and 494; and new northbound turn lanes at 59. In addition, contractors spliced in a section of culvert by Parkwood Baptist Church near Russell-Palmer Road.
A gap was caused by a conflict with an existing water line to the church. The water line was too close to the surface. Therefore, contractors could not place the culvert deep enough. Rerouting the water line became its own small construction project, requiring engineering diagrams, approvals, estimates, change orders, permits and city inspections.
Another Week, Another Turn Lane
Most progress this week could be seen at the entries.
Looking NE from over 59 and Northpark Drive. Note fresh concrete for two additional right-hand, outbound turn lanes.Looking east. Photos taken Wednesday afternoon 3/27/24. Outbound traffic was backed up to Russell-Palmer Road.Note fresh concrete pour and men smoothing it.Also note culvert and connectors being stockpiled for new storm sewers.Farther east, we can see more prep work for the drainage that must be installed before work on the surface.
Rain Slows Basin Excavation
More than three inches of rain in the week before I took these shots seems to have slowed down excavation of the detention basins at the 59 entry.
Ponding water gives hint of what is to come.Looking N over south pond.Looking E across north pond. Both retaining walls in the north pond are finished and the concrete is curing. Backfill is already completedbehind the walls.Looking S across Northpark at south pond. Workers are still removing the wooden forms around the last retaining wall. Fill has not yet been placed behind the wall.
Work at Russell Palmer Scheduled
Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ 10 has posted a lane closure notice for the Russell-Palmer crossover between the east- and westbound lanes of Northpark from 9pm on Friday, April 5th to 5am on Monday, April 8th. That’s next weekend.
Crews will remove old pole-mounted traffic signals and replace them with wire-mounted signals. This will enable contractors to continue laying culvert toward the west. Right now the pole-mounted lights are in the center the road. That area will eventually be paved over.
Pole-mounted traffic signals at Russell Palmer will be removed to make way for extension of culvert.
Entergy was first notified of conflicts with the expansion project in 2020. They still haven’t moved their equipment, such as this transformer. At this point, they have ignored a City of Houston ultimatum for three weeks. Entergy has not returned phone calls to clarify when it plans to take action.
Transformer at Exxon Station.The box that’s putting the whole expansion project in a box.
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/20240327-DJI_20240327170422_0057_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-03-29 17:36:392024-03-29 17:40:32Northpark Expansion Update, Still No Sign of Entergy
City Mobilizing for More West Fork Dredging
Mobilization for the next phase of San Jacinto West Fork dredging is underway. The City of Houston and its contractor DRC (a subsidiary of Callan Marine) are already staging equipment in two places on the West Fork.
The program, funded by FEMA, will remove an estimated 800,000 cubic yards of silt and sediment between the original location of the West Fork Mouth Bar and FM1960. The contractor will use primarily hydraulic dredging and the program will take approximately two years, according to District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger.
West Fork Dredging Project Dates Back to Dave Martin Era
Flickinger credits his predecessor, former Council Member Dave Martin, and Chief Recovery Officer Stephen Costello’s tireless efforts in protesting the initial amount proposed for dredging by FEMA back in 2019. FEMA’s initial proposal, based on a four-page, table-top study produced by the Army Corps, called for dredging 283,000 cubic yards.
Martin strongly disagreed with the Corps’ report and appealed it while the City produced its own 94-page technical report. It showed a much higher volume deposited by Harvey. Remember: Harvey funds could not be used to address sediment deposited before Harvey. The City report produced by Tetra Tech relied extensively on core samples. Tetra Tech proved that Harvey laid down the sand in the mouth bar and that the dredging volume should be closer to a million cubic yards.
In August 2020, FEMA and the Corps finally concurred with the City, after extensive discussions and a massive assist from U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw. Crenshaw and others had been pushing FEMA for years for the additional dredging.
Current Status
The new West Fork dredging program should be ready to go within weeks. DRC is currently bringing in the equipment that they will need.
DRC plans to use primarily hydraulic dredging. They will attack the area between where the mouth bar was (south of Scenic Shores in Kings Point) and the FM1960 Bridge. See map below.
This is good news. The new West Fork dredging will help ensure that water doesn’t back up like it did before. It’s not a guarantee against flooding. Dredging is only one part of a multi-faceted mitigation program that also includes more upstream detention and new floodgates on the Lake Houston dam. More news on those topics to follow.
Posted by Bob Rehak
2407 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Wildly Divergent Colony Ridge Population Estimates Pose Planning Problems
Colony Ridge, the controversial Latino development in Liberty county, has grown at least 50% larger than Manhattan in about a decade. How many people live there? No one knows for sure. Colony Ridge population estimates vary widely. And that has ominous implications for planners.
Most of Colony Ridge falls within Census tract 7003.02. The Census Bureau estimates that, in 2023, 13,573 people lived there, even though Colony Ridge occupies only about two thirds of the census tract.
Based on that, one might conclude that the Census Bureau believes about 10,000 people live in Colony Ridge. But the local school district estimates 80,000 people live there. Who’s right? And why does it matter?
What’s at Stake
A precise answer is important for many reasons: Congressional representation for Texas is at stake. So is planning for water supply, schools, traffic, law enforcement, flood mitigation, and more. Yet precise answers are elusive.
Why the Wide Variation?
Last year, I interviewed Congressman Brian Babin’s chief of staff. Babin represents Colony Ridge in Congress.
Babin’s chief told me about the problems that Census takers had in Colony Ridge back in 2020. To summarize, as many as two, three, or even four families often live together in one home. And often, they don’t want to be counted. Reportedly, many fear discovery and deportation because they entered the U.S. illegally. So they are under-reported.
In an interview with Blaze Media, Liberty County Sheriff Bobby Rader was asked if he has any idea how many Colony Ridge residents are here illegally. Rader replied (at 26:23 into the video), “… the majority of the people out there are illegal aliens.”
Rader’s observation is consistent with U.S. Border Patrol reports of record-high migrant encounters – more than a quarter million in last December alone at the Mexican border.
Yet the Census Bureau estimates that only about 50 people per year move to ALL of Liberty County as a result of international immigration and Colony Ridge is reputedly the largest, fastest growing colonia in the country.
Estimates contradict each other.
Who to Believe?
On the low end, in round numbers, the Census Bureau believes about 10,000 people live in Colony Ridge. On the high end, based on enrollment, the Cleveland ISD superintendent believes about 80,000 live there.
At 29:45 into the Blaze video, Cleveland ISD Superintendent Stephen McCanless says, “What we’re finding down there (in Colony Ridge) is that you have multiple families living in one house with four, five, six and sometimes seven children in one house.” At 28:14, McCanless says “District enrollment is usually 10% of your total community population. That tells me that we should have about 80,000 people living there.”
While the superintendent has an actual head count, he’s counting children, not adults. The Pew Foundation found that Hispanics are far more likely than Whites to have large families with four or more children today. That’s one possible source of error when comparing to historic, largely White norms.
The superintendent is also not counting Colony Ridge children whose parents enroll them in Montgomery County schools not far away. According to anecdotal reports, that number could be substantial.
John Harris, the developer, splits the difference between the Census Bureau and the ISD. He estimates the current population of Colony Ridge at approximately 35,000 at 3:22 into the Blaze video. But Harris is basing his estimate on “lots sold,” not residents per lot.
Deeply Flawed Population Estimates Will Affect Planning
Conclusion: all these contradictory population estimates have flaws. And that makes planning an exercise in guesswork. Let’s take the example of water. It’s necessary to sustain life, yet planning large scale water projects can take decades. Most take up to 50 years.
If Colony Ridge grew by 80,000 people in roughly 10 years, will there be enough water in the aquifers to support a quarter million in another 20 years? If not, where will the water come from?
I talked to one long-term resident of neighboring Plum Grove whose well ran dry recently. She and her neighbor both had to drill their wells lower.
If Colony Ridge does grow to a quarter million people, it would rank near the ten largest cities in Texas.
At that point, the fight for water rights would pit Liberty County’s traditional farm-based population against newcomers, more than half of whom by the Sheriff’s estimate are illegal aliens. I don’t see that battle ending well…for anyone.
Missing Documents: Skirting State and County Water Regulations
To avoid surprises like this, Liberty County requires proof of a 30-year water supply before it approves plats. See Section 8.2 of Liberty County Subdivision Regulations. So does the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC) of Texas.
Yet when Maria Acevedo, a former landowner in Colony Ridge, requested such proof, neither Liberty County, the TCEQ, nor PUC could supply it. That’s scary.
It took decades to plan and build the Luce Bayou Interbasin Transfer Project and even longer for the Northeast Water Purification Plant. Together, they cost $2.3 billion.
Can an area where at least 30% of the population lives below the poverty line afford that investment? Colony Ridge has already shown that its corner-cutting business model can’t afford to meet Liberty County fire hydrant and drainage regulations.
The issue is sustainability. As aquifers deplete, land subsides. And Colony Ridge already has flooding problems.
Subsidence can make that worse by creating a bowl in the landscape that reduces the gradient of streams. That slows down floodwaters and makes them peak higher, faster – especially when surrounding development has insufficient stormwater detention like Colony Ridge.
It’s time to do some mid-course correction while there’s still time.
For more information about Colony Ridge, see this list of previous posts.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/31/24 with thanks to Michael Shrader for his research on population
2406 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Northpark Expansion Update, Still No Sign of Entergy
In the last three weeks, the Northpark expansion project has made slow, but steady progress, despite the fact that Entergy still has not moved any power poles or its transformer. For the moment, contractors seem to be working around the absentee utility issues, which have lingered for four years.
The bulk of activity has focused on the two stormwater detention basins near US59; drainage between 59 and 494; and new northbound turn lanes at 59. In addition, contractors spliced in a section of culvert by Parkwood Baptist Church near Russell-Palmer Road.
A gap was caused by a conflict with an existing water line to the church. The water line was too close to the surface. Therefore, contractors could not place the culvert deep enough. Rerouting the water line became its own small construction project, requiring engineering diagrams, approvals, estimates, change orders, permits and city inspections.
Another Week, Another Turn Lane
Most progress this week could be seen at the entries.
Rain Slows Basin Excavation
More than three inches of rain in the week before I took these shots seems to have slowed down excavation of the detention basins at the 59 entry.
Work at Russell Palmer Scheduled
Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ 10 has posted a lane closure notice for the Russell-Palmer crossover between the east- and westbound lanes of Northpark from 9pm on Friday, April 5th to 5am on Monday, April 8th. That’s next weekend.
Crews will remove old pole-mounted traffic signals and replace them with wire-mounted signals. This will enable contractors to continue laying culvert toward the west. Right now the pole-mounted lights are in the center the road. That area will eventually be paved over.
Here is the 3-week lookahead schedule posted on March 21.
Entergy Still MIA
Entergy was first notified of conflicts with the expansion project in 2020. They still haven’t moved their equipment, such as this transformer. At this point, they have ignored a City of Houston ultimatum for three weeks. Entergy has not returned phone calls to clarify when it plans to take action.
For More Information
For more information about Northpark expansion, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/29/24
2404 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.