Colorado State University, which has one of the best reputations in seasonal hurricane forecasting, predicted on April 4 that the 2024 Atlantic Season will be “extremely active.” Compared to the average for 30 years from 1991 to 2020, the metrics suggest tropical activity could increase by 50% or more. Below are some of CSU’s key predictions.
Metric
CSU April Forecast for 2024
Average for 1991-2020
% Increase
Named Storms
23
14.4
53%
Hurricanes
11
7.2
53%
Major Hurricanes
5
3.2
56%
Accumulated Cyclone Energy*
125
73
71%
*West of 60 degrees longitude (Caribbean, Gulf, Western Atlantic, US East Coast)
2023 had 20 named Atlantic storms. That ranked fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950. If CSU predictions are accurate, this year will be even worse.
Basis for Forecast: Warm Waters, Less Wind Shear
According to CSU, when waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to weaken winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures.
And a very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricanes.
The graph below from NOAA shows just how much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures were yesterday.
As of yesterday, sea surface temperatures around the world averaged 1 to 4 degrees centigrade higher than normal for this time of year. Four degrees centigrade equals 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit.
Confidence Level
Given the combined signals favorable to hurricane formation, CSU has higher-than-normal confidence for an April outlook that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active.
This is the highest prediction for hurricanes that CSU has ever issued with their April outlook.
CSU
The CSU team will issue additional forecast updates on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.
New Metric More Accurate
“Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) generated west of 60 degrees west” is a new metric, introduced by CSU this year. It correlates better with landfalling storms in the Atlantic basin than basin-wide ACE. That’s because virtually all hurricane-prone landmasses in the Atlantic Ocean are located west of 60 degrees west.
Landfall Predictions
The CSU report also includes the probability of a major hurricane making landfall:
62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
66% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).
Forecasters on both sides of the Atlantic have predicted an extremely active hurricane season since January. Adjectives have ranged from “supercharged” to “grim” and “blockbuster.”
The National Hurricane Center usually issues its seasonal outlook a little later in the season.
As always, researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions. It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you.
For more information about climate, hurricanes, and hurricane preparation, visit the National Hurricane Center.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/5/24
2411 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SST-Temp-Anomalies-4.4.24.jpg?fit=1100%2C707&ssl=17071100adminadmin2024-04-05 14:58:042024-04-05 15:08:26Colorado State Predicts “Extremely Active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Congressman Dan Crenshaw has helped secure Federal funding that supports 10 Lake Houston Area projects. Crenshaw submitted requests for the earmarks in 2023. After review by several different congressional committees, some of the earmark requests were modified and some sailed through for the full amounts.
The table below shows requested and approved amounts.
Project
Originally Requested
Finally Approved
Walnut Lane Bridge over Kingwood Diversion Ditch
$4 million
$4 million
New Caney Active Shooter Defense Training Facility
According to sources familiar with the process, Crenshaw is one of the few if not the only representatives to secure funding for all projects he has submitted in the last three years.
Reportedly, this is because Crenshaw restricts his requests to projects that save lives and/or money in the long term. Said another way, the requests he submits justify the expenditures. They are usually for infrastructure and save the government money by preventing future flood damage.
Crenshaw in black shirt visiting with Elm Grove flood victims in 2019 near Taylor Gully.
For descriptions of all 10 earmarks requested by Crenshaw, see below.
Project Descriptions
Kingwood Diversion Channel – Walnut Lane Bridge Project
Recipient: City of Houston
Purpose: The project includes the widening and reconstruction of Walnut Lane Bridge in Kingwood. This bridge, in its current configuration, will restrict flood flows unless widened to accommodate the future expansion of the Kingwood Diversion Channel currently being designed by the Harris County Flood Control District. The purpose of the overall project is to route drainage from Montgomery County to Lake Houston and reduce flood damage to residents of Kingwood along Bens Branch. The funding is needed to construct improvements needed to facilitate the expansion of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and rebuild the Walnut Lane Bridge.
Active Shooter Defense Training Facility
Recipient: Montgomery County
Purpose: Purpose: To assist with the operations of our regional active shooter rapid response training facility by purchasing training supplies/aids, equiping graduates with medical response supplies, and ballistic equipment for actual threats. To date, graduates include 1,600 law enforcement personnel, fire and EMS first responders.
San Jacinto River Wastewater System Replacement Project
Recipient: Army Corps of Engineers
Purpose: To increase the reliability of the San Jacinto River Authority Woodlands Division wastewater conveyance system and repair damage from recent storms. List stations were damaged by flooding during Hurricane Harvey and have yet to be repaired. Both on-site lift stations, the control building, and the emergency generator were flooded and need to be replaced. This request would fund the demolition of the existing structure and build new systems.
Goose Creek Channel Conveyance Improvements and Stormwater Detention Project
Recipient: Harris County Flood Control District
Purpose: This project is designed to reduce flood risk within the Goose Creek Watershed by creating a detention basin and improving stormwater conveyance. The project is estimated to remove approximately 28 acres of inundated land, up to 77 structures, and 1.44 miles of inundated roadways from the 100-year event. Preventing flooding will avoid the need for more costly recovery efforts after flooding events.
Taylor Gully Flood Mitigation Project
Recipient: Harris County Flood Control District
Purpose: To reduce flood risk in the Kingwood area. This area experienced widespread flooding from recent storm events, including Hurricane Harvey and Tropical Storm Imelda. This project will create a detention basin and improve stormwater conveyance to minimize flood risks. Engineering studies show that completion of this project will result in substantial reductions in flooding along Taylor Gully. The studies show that this project will remove the 100-year floodplain from more than 276 structures and 115 acres of flood area.
Goose Creek Channel Conveyance Improvements and Stormwater Detention Project
Recipient: Harris County Flood Control District
Purpose: This project is designed to reduce flood risk within the Goose Creek Watershed by creating a detention basin and improving stormwater conveyance. The project is estimated to remove approximately 28 acres of inundated land, up to 77 structures, and 1.44 miles of inundated roadways from the 100-year event. Preventing flooding will avoid the need for more costly recovery efforts after flooding events.
Ford Road Improvement Project
Recipient: Montgomery County
Purpose: Support Ford Road improvements from US 59 in Montgomery County to the Harris County line. The current road is undersized and serves as one of only three evacuation routes for the Kingwood area. All three routes have drainage issues and Ford Road is only a two-lane road. The proposed project would make Ford Road a four-lane road, improve local drainage, and improve driver and pedestrian safety in the corridor.
Montgomery County Bridge Project
Recipient: Montgomery County
Purpose: Provide funding for five rural wooden bridges in Montgomery County that are past their design life and need to be replaced. The bridges were not built to current criteria and increase the risk of flooding by backing up water during large storms. One bridge serves as the only way in and out of a subdivision presenting a safety hazard. The funding request is for engineering, surveying, and permitting services to develop construction plans to replace five bridges.
Tamina Economic Development Planning Project
Recipient: Montgomery County
Purpose: The Tamina area is not served by modern street and stormwater management systems. The streets are in disrepair and the area drains very poorly, creating an elevated risk of flooding. The first phase of economic development planning, which this request would support, is to complete detailed engineering and environmental studies, provide new driveways and culverts, and re-grade all of the ditches to allow them to drain.
FM1488 Area Street Rehabilitation and Drainage Improvement Project
Recipient: City of Conroe
Purpose: The project will fund roadway resurfacing, drainage improvements, and storm sewer upgrades of roadways connecting to FM1488 near IH-45 (southern part of Conroe). The City of Conroe has experienced severe weather and rainfall which causes considerable wear and tear on the roads and drainage network. The project will benefit residential areas, including the Arella Forrest at Woodland Senior Living Center and Stillwater neighborhood. It will also improve access to the WG Jones State Forest, which serves a community located in a Historically Disadvantaged Community Tract.
Purpose: Reconstruction of multiple poorly paved roads in subdivisions throughout the Highlands, Crosby, and Huffman areas of northeast Harris County. Existing gravel roads and inadequate drainage will be replaced with asphalt pavement, driveway culverts, and roadside ditches that will greatly improve residents’ quality of life. The projects will also improve accessibility for law enforcement and emergency services, reduce flood risk, and bring the local infrastructure to a standard acceptable for long-term County maintenance.
Reason for Some Cutbacks
Earmarks come out of a specific percentage of each committee’s overall budget. The more requests that representatives submit, the less money there is to go around. And congressmen have no control over what others submit.
Overall, Congressman Crenshaw did very well. Many of these projects would not be going forward without his assistance.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/4/24
2410 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/CrenshawElmGrove-e1690218032150.jpg?fit=1100%2C825&ssl=18251100adminadmin2024-04-04 12:14:522024-04-04 12:25:24Crenshaw Secures Funding for 10 Lake Houston Area Projects
I got a tip last night that new Entergy power poles finally arrived. Today, I photographed the long-awaited equipment. The poles are not up yet. Nothing is connected to them. Most are just lying in the dirt.
In the quest to build an all-weather evacuation route for 78,000 Kingwood residents, readers may remember that the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ-10 has sparred with Entergy for four years. Entergy’s power lines need to be moved out of a City-owned easement to accommodate the expansion of Northpark Drive.
I have confirmed that the poles belong to Entergy. Entergy also claims that they will begin erecting the poles in the next few days, weather permitting.
My source did not provide an estimated date for completion. Nor did the source discuss plans for moving Entergy’s transformer near the Exxon station at US59.
But still, this is progress.
Making Way for Surface Turn Lanes
The existing Entergy power poles need to move back to make way for two surface turn lanes that will parallel the bridge over the UP railroad tracks at Loop 494.
One of the two new westbound turn lanes will let traffic turn left onto 494 and the other will let it turn right. This is a TXDoT requirement.
As you can see from the overhead clutter, this is not going to be a simple job.Entergy has dropped new poles every few feet for several blocks down Northpark.Entergy power poles back beyond the orange stakes on the left.
The City of Houston issued Entergy an ultimatum to have its equipment out of the way by March 8. March 8 came and went without a sign of Entergy along Northpark. Now, almost a month later, we finally have some movement that could avert a costly legal battle that had the potential to shut the expansion project down.
This is good news. The presence of the power lines in the right of way has delayed construction considerably and forced contractors to take tasks out of sequence.
Union Pacific access issues have already been worked out. So, hopefully, construction should move faster now.
Elsewhere Along Northpark
Northbound turn lanes at 59 have reached their full width and are growing longer.
Outbound traffic was confined to one lane today, causing considerable delays.Note freshly poured concrete being finished.
As soon as the new turn lanes are complete, traffic in the old lanes will be rerouted to them. Then contractors will repave the old lanes. That process should take three months according to LHRA. Westbound traffic should expect delays.
LHRA encourages commuters to take alternative routes. For the next phase of work, the contractor will install new storm sewer pipes and inlets along with the new concrete roadway.
Russell Palmer Intersection Closed This Weekend
Farther east, contractors have already removed a pole mounted traffic signal at the Northpark/Russell Palmer Intersection. This weekend, they will rip up the intersection to extend the box culverts in the median. The crossover will close from 9pm Friday night, April 5, to 5am Monday morning, April 8, to make way for construction.
Looking W toward US59across Russell Palmer along Northpark. The crossover will be ripped up this weekend to extend the culverts.
Traffic was backed up for more than a mile in each direction this afternoon because of multiple lane closures as you can see above.
Construction is never easy. Pack your patience. Plan on delays. And search for alternative routes for the duration.
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/20240402-RJR_3284.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2024-04-02 19:13:132024-04-02 19:44:44New Entergy Power Poles Finally Arrive On Northpark
Colorado State Predicts “Extremely Active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Colorado State University, which has one of the best reputations in seasonal hurricane forecasting, predicted on April 4 that the 2024 Atlantic Season will be “extremely active.” Compared to the average for 30 years from 1991 to 2020, the metrics suggest tropical activity could increase by 50% or more. Below are some of CSU’s key predictions.
2023 had 20 named Atlantic storms. That ranked fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950. If CSU predictions are accurate, this year will be even worse.
Basis for Forecast: Warm Waters, Less Wind Shear
According to CSU, when waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to weaken winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures.
And a very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricanes.
The graph below from NOAA shows just how much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures were yesterday.
Confidence Level
Given the combined signals favorable to hurricane formation, CSU has higher-than-normal confidence for an April outlook that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active.
The CSU team will issue additional forecast updates on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.
New Metric More Accurate
“Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) generated west of 60 degrees west” is a new metric, introduced by CSU this year. It correlates better with landfalling storms in the Atlantic basin than basin-wide ACE. That’s because virtually all hurricane-prone landmasses in the Atlantic Ocean are located west of 60 degrees west.
Landfall Predictions
The CSU report also includes the probability of a major hurricane making landfall:
Data wonks can read CSU’s full 44-page report here.
Consistent with Other Seasonal Forecasts
Forecasters on both sides of the Atlantic have predicted an extremely active hurricane season since January. Adjectives have ranged from “supercharged” to “grim” and “blockbuster.”
The National Hurricane Center usually issues its seasonal outlook a little later in the season.
As always, researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions. It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you.
For more information about climate, hurricanes, and hurricane preparation, visit the National Hurricane Center.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/5/24
2411 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Crenshaw Secures Funding for 10 Lake Houston Area Projects
Congressman Dan Crenshaw has helped secure Federal funding that supports 10 Lake Houston Area projects. Crenshaw submitted requests for the earmarks in 2023. After review by several different congressional committees, some of the earmark requests were modified and some sailed through for the full amounts.
The table below shows requested and approved amounts.
Crenshaw Success Rate
According to sources familiar with the process, Crenshaw is one of the few if not the only representatives to secure funding for all projects he has submitted in the last three years.
Reportedly, this is because Crenshaw restricts his requests to projects that save lives and/or money in the long term. Said another way, the requests he submits justify the expenditures. They are usually for infrastructure and save the government money by preventing future flood damage.
For descriptions of all 10 earmarks requested by Crenshaw, see below.
Project Descriptions
Kingwood Diversion Channel – Walnut Lane Bridge Project
Recipient: City of Houston
Purpose: The project includes the widening and reconstruction of Walnut Lane Bridge in Kingwood. This bridge, in its current configuration, will restrict flood flows unless widened to accommodate the future expansion of the Kingwood Diversion Channel currently being designed by the Harris County Flood Control District. The purpose of the overall project is to route drainage from Montgomery County to Lake Houston and reduce flood damage to residents of Kingwood along Bens Branch. The funding is needed to construct improvements needed to facilitate the expansion of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and rebuild the Walnut Lane Bridge.
Active Shooter Defense Training Facility
Recipient: Montgomery County
Purpose: Purpose: To assist with the operations of our regional active shooter rapid response training facility by purchasing training supplies/aids, equiping graduates with medical response supplies, and ballistic equipment for actual threats. To date, graduates include 1,600 law enforcement personnel, fire and EMS first responders.
San Jacinto River Wastewater System Replacement Project
Recipient: Army Corps of Engineers
Purpose: To increase the reliability of the San Jacinto River Authority Woodlands Division wastewater conveyance system and repair damage from recent storms. List stations were damaged by flooding during Hurricane Harvey and have yet to be repaired. Both on-site lift stations, the control building, and the emergency generator were flooded and need to be replaced. This request would fund the demolition of the existing structure and build new systems.
Goose Creek Channel Conveyance Improvements and Stormwater Detention Project
Recipient: Harris County Flood Control District
Purpose: This project is designed to reduce flood risk within the Goose Creek Watershed by creating a detention basin and improving stormwater conveyance. The project is estimated to remove approximately 28 acres of inundated land, up to 77 structures, and 1.44 miles of inundated roadways from the 100-year event. Preventing flooding will avoid the need for more costly recovery efforts after flooding events.
Taylor Gully Flood Mitigation Project
Recipient: Harris County Flood Control District
Purpose: To reduce flood risk in the Kingwood area. This area experienced widespread flooding from recent storm events, including Hurricane Harvey and Tropical Storm Imelda. This project will create a detention basin and improve stormwater conveyance to minimize flood risks. Engineering studies show that completion of this project will result in substantial reductions in flooding along Taylor Gully. The studies show that this project will remove the 100-year floodplain from more than 276 structures and 115 acres of flood area.
Goose Creek Channel Conveyance Improvements and Stormwater Detention Project
Recipient: Harris County Flood Control District
Purpose: This project is designed to reduce flood risk within the Goose Creek Watershed by creating a detention basin and improving stormwater conveyance. The project is estimated to remove approximately 28 acres of inundated land, up to 77 structures, and 1.44 miles of inundated roadways from the 100-year event. Preventing flooding will avoid the need for more costly recovery efforts after flooding events.
Ford Road Improvement Project
Recipient: Montgomery County
Purpose: Support Ford Road improvements from US 59 in Montgomery County to the Harris County line. The current road is undersized and serves as one of only three evacuation routes for the Kingwood area. All three routes have drainage issues and Ford Road is only a two-lane road. The proposed project would make Ford Road a four-lane road, improve local drainage, and improve driver and pedestrian safety in the corridor.
Montgomery County Bridge Project
Recipient: Montgomery County
Purpose: Provide funding for five rural wooden bridges in Montgomery County that are past their design life and need to be replaced. The bridges were not built to current criteria and increase the risk of flooding by backing up water during large storms. One bridge serves as the only way in and out of a subdivision presenting a safety hazard. The funding request is for engineering, surveying, and permitting services to develop construction plans to replace five bridges.
Tamina Economic Development Planning Project
Recipient: Montgomery County
Purpose: The Tamina area is not served by modern street and stormwater management systems. The streets are in disrepair and the area drains very poorly, creating an elevated risk of flooding. The first phase of economic development planning, which this request would support, is to complete detailed engineering and environmental studies, provide new driveways and culverts, and re-grade all of the ditches to allow them to drain.
FM1488 Area Street Rehabilitation and Drainage Improvement Project
Recipient: City of Conroe
Purpose: The project will fund roadway resurfacing, drainage improvements, and storm sewer upgrades of roadways connecting to FM1488 near IH-45 (southern part of Conroe). The City of Conroe has experienced severe weather and rainfall which causes considerable wear and tear on the roads and drainage network. The project will benefit residential areas, including the Arella Forrest at Woodland Senior Living Center and Stillwater neighborhood. It will also improve access to the WG Jones State Forest, which serves a community located in a Historically Disadvantaged Community Tract.
Highland / Huffman / Crosby Roadway & Drainage Improvement
Recipient: Harris County, Texas
Purpose: Reconstruction of multiple poorly paved roads in subdivisions throughout the Highlands, Crosby, and Huffman areas of northeast Harris County. Existing gravel roads and inadequate drainage will be replaced with asphalt pavement, driveway culverts, and roadside ditches that will greatly improve residents’ quality of life. The projects will also improve accessibility for law enforcement and emergency services, reduce flood risk, and bring the local infrastructure to a standard acceptable for long-term County maintenance.
Reason for Some Cutbacks
Earmarks come out of a specific percentage of each committee’s overall budget. The more requests that representatives submit, the less money there is to go around. And congressmen have no control over what others submit.
Overall, Congressman Crenshaw did very well. Many of these projects would not be going forward without his assistance.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/4/24
2410 Days since Hurricane Harvey
New Entergy Power Poles Finally Arrive On Northpark
I got a tip last night that new Entergy power poles finally arrived. Today, I photographed the long-awaited equipment. The poles are not up yet. Nothing is connected to them. Most are just lying in the dirt.
In the quest to build an all-weather evacuation route for 78,000 Kingwood residents, readers may remember that the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ-10 has sparred with Entergy for four years. Entergy’s power lines need to be moved out of a City-owned easement to accommodate the expansion of Northpark Drive.
I have confirmed that the poles belong to Entergy. Entergy also claims that they will begin erecting the poles in the next few days, weather permitting.
My source did not provide an estimated date for completion. Nor did the source discuss plans for moving Entergy’s transformer near the Exxon station at US59.
But still, this is progress.
Making Way for Surface Turn Lanes
The existing Entergy power poles need to move back to make way for two surface turn lanes that will parallel the bridge over the UP railroad tracks at Loop 494.
One of the two new westbound turn lanes will let traffic turn left onto 494 and the other will let it turn right. This is a TXDoT requirement.
The City of Houston issued Entergy an ultimatum to have its equipment out of the way by March 8. March 8 came and went without a sign of Entergy along Northpark. Now, almost a month later, we finally have some movement that could avert a costly legal battle that had the potential to shut the expansion project down.
This is good news. The presence of the power lines in the right of way has delayed construction considerably and forced contractors to take tasks out of sequence.
Union Pacific access issues have already been worked out. So, hopefully, construction should move faster now.
Elsewhere Along Northpark
Northbound turn lanes at 59 have reached their full width and are growing longer.
As soon as the new turn lanes are complete, traffic in the old lanes will be rerouted to them. Then contractors will repave the old lanes. That process should take three months according to LHRA. Westbound traffic should expect delays.
LHRA encourages commuters to take alternative routes. For the next phase of work, the contractor will install new storm sewer pipes and inlets along with the new concrete roadway.
Russell Palmer Intersection Closed This Weekend
Farther east, contractors have already removed a pole mounted traffic signal at the Northpark/Russell Palmer Intersection. This weekend, they will rip up the intersection to extend the box culverts in the median. The crossover will close from 9pm Friday night, April 5, to 5am Monday morning, April 8, to make way for construction.
Traffic was backed up for more than a mile in each direction this afternoon because of multiple lane closures as you can see above.
Construction is never easy. Pack your patience. Plan on delays. And search for alternative routes for the duration.
For More Information
For more information about Northpark expansion, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/24
2408 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.