8/3/24 – Yesterday was a start. Kingwood residents and political leaders met in several areas hard hit by Hurricane Beryl to discuss ways to improve recovery efforts. The idea: to start a dialog about steps that Houston Public Works, CenterPoint, community leaders, and residents can take together to reduce disruptions from future flooding and power outages.
Connectedness of Issues and Domino Effects
The recovery discussions took place on streets still clogged with debris that were near power line corridors, greenbelt trails, a school and two sewage “lift stations.”
Centerpoint representative addresses group including Houston City Council Members Fred Flickinger (center) and Twila Carter (right); State Rep. Charles Cunningham (upper right); and Dee Price, KSA President (striped shirt).
Lift stations pump sewage uphill to treatment plants. When treatment plants are downhill, gravity does the work – a much more reliable solution. Without power, or when flooded, sewage from the lift stations can back up into people’s homes and overflow.
The City of Houston has hundreds of such lift stations. And during Beryl, Houston Public works shuttled backup generators back and forth between them. They tried to buy enough time to keep the lift stations from backing up and overflowing.
Unfortunately, the shuttling didn’t work in parts of Woodstream Village. There, residents talked about backed up sewage flowing from homes into streets and then Lake Houston.
Chris Kalman, Woodstream resident, talked about how problems are becoming progressively worse. “Centerpoint was awfully quiet when asked about repeated power outages in this area going on 18-plus years now. No real answer.”
The solution, according to a Public Works spokesperson Greg Eyerly, is to buy more generators. But that could take years in a city struggling with other urgent budget issues. And recovery can’t wait.
Cambio (left), State Rep. Cunningham (center) and Eyerly (right) discussing lift stations in Woodstream.
Preventing/Reducing Outages
Related recovery discussions about preventing or reducing power outages took place throughout the morning. According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s final 2004 report on Utility Vegetation Management, “tree touches” are generally cited as the single largest cause of electric power outages. They occur when trees, or portions of trees, grow or fall into overhead power lines.
In Kingwood, trees have grown up under or around power lines in many places. In fact, many residents have commented that if not for recent Beryl-related trimming, they would’t even have known power lines were there.
Trees touching power lines near Deerwood Elementary where group first gathered yesterday.Power to nearby residents was out for 9.5 days after Beryl.
Unfortunately, from a recovery/electric reliability point of view, Kingwood is in a region that experiences frequent high winds and heavy rainfall. The heavy rainfall supports fast growth of tall trees. And frequent high winds push those trees into power lines.
So another major focus of recovery discussions included:
CenterPoint vegetation management practices, especially maintenance intervals (which they avoided disclosing)
Trees that fall from trail association property onto CenterPoint power lines
Removal of debris that can clog storm sewers
Who is responsible for what
How one group’s performance or lack thereof can affect electric reliability and related issues for others.
Need for a New Approach Involving Trail and Community Associations
At-Large City Council Member Twila Carter said, “CenterPoint must have a collective conversation, resulting in a plan with KSA, the HOAs and Trail Associations to address maintenance. The thoughts of “In the past, that’s the way we’ve always done it,” or “the way it’s always been” no longer work for this community. We need to address the community as it is today, not how it was planned 50 years ago.”
District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger said, “A meeting between the trail associations and CenterPoint will make a significant difference. It was the best thing to come out of today.”
Flickinger was referring to a discussion with Dee Price, KSA President. Price agreed to set up a meeting with Kingwood trail associations, community associations, CenterPoint and the council members.
Flickinger continued, “There has to be significantly more aggressive vegetation management in the future.”
Kaaren Cambio, Dan Crenshaw’s assistant, explained how the homeowner and trail associations around Lake Conroe regularly inspect resident properties for trees and branches that threaten power lines. She said they send letters to residents requiring them to take down such trees or trim them back.
CenterPoint can trim back limbs and trees that encroach on their easements. But CenterPoint cannot take down trees on private property. That includes trail association property. So recovery needs to be a cooperative effort.
Chris Bloch, a long-time Bear Branch Trail Association (BBTA) Board Member, was not at the meeting, but observed, “The number of trees and limbs that fell during Beryl was easily 2X+ what we had during Ike. I attribute this to two summers of drought which stressed the trees and then an exceptionally wet spring.”
Costs of Burying Power Lines Not Clear
Flickinger also said, “I’m pushing for more underground electrical lines. I want to see the analysis of the costs. I know it’s expensive, but I believe we are paying for it incrementally every time there is a storm.” Flickinger cited lost wages, the cost of backup generators, debris cleanup, and more.
CenterPoint responded that the costs of burying wires are location specific and the costs of repairing underground cables, when cut, are much higher. However, CenterPoint offered no specifics about the cost of burying power lines in Kingwood.
Impacts on the Elderly and Ill
Cambio also talked extensively about the impact of power outages on hospitals plus nursing and retirement homes.
Many operate in multi-story buildings. Elderly in wheel chairs rely on elevators. But without power, they are trapped. They can’t get up or down stairs to get to doctors. Nor do they have power for dialysis, breathing machines, etc.
Kingwood Hospital had a backup generator. But, reportedly, it was insufficient to power the entire facility.
Cambio recommended changes to state law, requiring hospitals, nursing homes and retirement homes to have sufficient backup-generator power to operate elevators and air conditioning.
The only problem: According to Chris Coulter of Texas Power Agents, such backup generators require regular maintenance. They also require oil and fuel, such as gasoline, which may be hard to find during widespread power outages. After Beryl, the lines I found at functioning gasoline stations stretched for more than a half mile.
Voluntary Best Management Practices May Not Be Enough
I asked Coulter, who was not at yesterday’s roving recovery meeting, for recommendations about how to improve electric reliability.
He immediately focused on vegetation management and tied the growth of vegetation over time with the increasing frequency of power outages.
The FERC report cited above says that utility vegetation management programs represent one of the largest recurring maintenance expenses for electric utility companies in North America.
Coulter jokingly characterized companies like CenterPoint as “tree trimming companies that happen to distribute power.”
“The odds are that every single electric customer in the US and Canada has, at one time or another, experienced a sustained electric outage as a direct result of a tree and power line conflict.”
This FERC report is well written and easy to understand. It makes dozens of common-sense recommendations to improve electric reliability. I recommend it.
Coulter also referred me to NERC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. NERC describes itself as “… an international regulatory authority whose mission is to assure the effective and efficient reduction of risks to the reliability and security of the grid.”
Coulter said that NERC rules recognize different sizes of lines in regard to vegetation management requirements. Heavy fines apply if vegetation is ignored around lines that carry more than 100 kV.
However, lines that carry less power often get neglected – something that hampers recovery.
Coulter said that many of his Kingwood customers told him about seeing several such lines for the first time after Beryl. They didn’t even know the lines were there because they were so badly overgrown!
Said Coulter, “The NERC rules are very specific about frequency and minimum vegetation clearance distances for larger transmission (above 100 kV). Fines are steep so the utilities pay close attention and abide by the rules. However, Kingwood has a large spiderweb of distribution lines that are below that bright-line designation.”
Perhaps the fines need to apply to smaller power lines.
Next Step: Broaden the Discussion
Dee Price is reaching out to trail and community associations to set up a meeting about vegetation management. It will also involve our elected representatives, CenterPoint and Houston Public Works.
At a minimum, I came away from yesterday’s discussions with a feeling that we need to:
Raise awareness of vegetation management issues within the community
Handle those on private property that could affect electric lines by ourselves
Report problems on or near CenterPoint easements that they may not be aware of.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/3/24
2531 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 26 since Beryl
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20240802-RJR_3715.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2024-08-03 17:43:442024-08-03 19:23:45Planning a Better, Faster Recovery from the Next Storm
8/2/24 5PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued an advisory about Potential Tropical Cyclone 4. It affects people on the west coast of Florida for now. Since yesterday, models have come into closer alignment. There is now a higher degree of certainty that the PTC4 will track up the west coast of Florida, then cut east around Tampa and emerge into the Atlantic.
Current Status and Forecast
Land interaction with Cuba has limited strengthening of the storm today. But by 2PM Saturday, it should emerge into the eastern Gulf and intensify into a tropical storm before making landfall.
Maximum sustained winds are currently at 30 MPH, but will accelerate Saturday and Sunday.
NHC forecasts a 40-50% probability that the Florida’s western coast will see tropical storm force winds (one minute average >= 39MPH). The earliest arrival time on the southern tip of Florida is 8 AM Saturday 8/3/24.
So far, the tropical wave has not yet reached tropical storm force anywhere in the Atlantic or Caribbean. However, tropical storm watches and warnings are up for the entire western coast of Florida.
NOAA’s latest satellite imagery shows the storm centered over Cuba at 21:40 Z on 8/2/24.
PTC4’s position over Cuba as of 4:40 CDT.
Up to a Foot of Rain and 4 Feet of Storm Surge
NHC expects tropical storm conditions to follow the storm up the eastern seaboard through next Wednesday. They also warn of life-threatening storm surge (2-4 feet) and coastal flooding from Georgia to North Carolina next week. Finally, they warn of isolated river flooding.
Expect rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning.
Next Storm Name Is Debby
This storm should become “Debby.” Chris had a short life and veered into northern Mexico as Beryl was moving toward Houston.
For the time being, people in the Houston area can breathe easier. But the Atlantic hurricane season is just starting to heat up. It will peak on September 10.
8/1/24 – 7PM Update – Since posting this story earlier today, NHC has shifted its predictions even farther west and increased development chances to 40% in two cays and 70% in 7 days.
8/1/24, 9 AM – According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a well-defined tropical wave is now moving toward the Gulf. This represents a significant change from earlier predictions that took the storm east of Florida.
The system is currently producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Location as of 8/1/24 at 9AM CDT
Development Chances
Development of this system should occur slowly during the next two days. Environmental conditions will soon become more conducive for development. And a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The system has a 20% chance of formation in the next 2 days and a 60% chance in the next 7.
National Hurricane Center
NHC and others have discussed this tropical wave for about a week now. In the last 2 days, shower and thunderstorm development has become better organized, but there is still no defined circulation at the surface at this time.
The wave axis should reach Cuba by early this weekend. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, land interaction will likely prevent any sort of significant development in the near term – unless a center forms either south or north of the inlands.
Likely Track
Toward this weekend it is now likely that the wave will enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, the steering patterns become highly complex.
Forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty. Different models show numerous outcomes in the eastern Gulf during the next 5-7 days.
Weak Storm Likely at This Point
Intensity forecasts are also very uncertain at this point. Most models predict a weak system. But once a defined surface center forms, intensification looks likely.
Factors Supporting Development
Lindner points to three factors supporting eventual development.
Conditions supporting intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico include:
Very warm sea surface temperatures
Light wind shear
Potential for dual outflow channels aloft.
Role of Dual Outflow Channels in Formation
Meteorologists frequently talk about shear and sea surface temperatures in relation to hurricane formation. But they talk less often about the importance of outflow channels. How do outflow channels support hurricane formation?
Dual outflow channels are important in hurricane formation because they can enhance the efficiency and intensity of a storm.
According to ChatGPT, they provide:
Enhanced Ventilation: This allows the hurricane to expel air more efficiently, promoting a stronger inflow at the surface.
Symmetrical Structure: With outflow in multiple directions, the hurricane maintains a more symmetrical structure.
Lower Pressure: Efficient outflow channels contribute to lowering the central pressure of the hurricane. Lower pressure at the core leads to higher wind speeds and a more powerful storm.
Sustained Intensification: Dual outflow channels can support sustained intensification by continually removing air from the upper levels, allowing the storm to draw in warm, moist air from the ocean surface.
Balanced Energy Distribution: The channels help distribute energy more evenly around the storm, preventing one side from becoming too dominant and potentially disrupting the hurricane’s structure.
Dual outflow channels thus help enhance the structural integrity, efficiency, and intensity of hurricanes.
Preparations
At this time, no one predicts that the storm will reach as far west as Houston. But last week, no one predicted that it would reach the Gulf either.
As always, your best bet is to be prepared for anything. Restock food, water and batteries used after Beryl. Recharge your backups. And monitor the NHC daily.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/1/24
2529 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Potential-Gulf-Storm.png?fit=897%2C669&ssl=1669897adminadmin2024-08-01 10:56:492024-08-01 18:47:32New Forecasts Show Latest Disturbance Now Moving Toward Gulf
Planning a Better, Faster Recovery from the Next Storm
8/3/24 – Yesterday was a start. Kingwood residents and political leaders met in several areas hard hit by Hurricane Beryl to discuss ways to improve recovery efforts. The idea: to start a dialog about steps that Houston Public Works, CenterPoint, community leaders, and residents can take together to reduce disruptions from future flooding and power outages.
Connectedness of Issues and Domino Effects
The recovery discussions took place on streets still clogged with debris that were near power line corridors, greenbelt trails, a school and two sewage “lift stations.”
Lift stations pump sewage uphill to treatment plants. When treatment plants are downhill, gravity does the work – a much more reliable solution. Without power, or when flooded, sewage from the lift stations can back up into people’s homes and overflow.
The City of Houston has hundreds of such lift stations. And during Beryl, Houston Public works shuttled backup generators back and forth between them. They tried to buy enough time to keep the lift stations from backing up and overflowing.
Unfortunately, the shuttling didn’t work in parts of Woodstream Village. There, residents talked about backed up sewage flowing from homes into streets and then Lake Houston.
The solution, according to a Public Works spokesperson Greg Eyerly, is to buy more generators. But that could take years in a city struggling with other urgent budget issues. And recovery can’t wait.
Preventing/Reducing Outages
Related recovery discussions about preventing or reducing power outages took place throughout the morning. According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s final 2004 report on Utility Vegetation Management, “tree touches” are generally cited as the single largest cause of electric power outages. They occur when trees, or portions of trees, grow or fall into overhead power lines.
In Kingwood, trees have grown up under or around power lines in many places. In fact, many residents have commented that if not for recent Beryl-related trimming, they would’t even have known power lines were there.
Unfortunately, from a recovery/electric reliability point of view, Kingwood is in a region that experiences frequent high winds and heavy rainfall. The heavy rainfall supports fast growth of tall trees. And frequent high winds push those trees into power lines.
So another major focus of recovery discussions included:
Need for a New Approach Involving Trail and Community Associations
At-Large City Council Member Twila Carter said, “CenterPoint must have a collective conversation, resulting in a plan with KSA, the HOAs and Trail Associations to address maintenance. The thoughts of “In the past, that’s the way we’ve always done it,” or “the way it’s always been” no longer work for this community. We need to address the community as it is today, not how it was planned 50 years ago.”
District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger said, “A meeting between the trail associations and CenterPoint will make a significant difference. It was the best thing to come out of today.”
Flickinger was referring to a discussion with Dee Price, KSA President. Price agreed to set up a meeting with Kingwood trail associations, community associations, CenterPoint and the council members.
Flickinger continued, “There has to be significantly more aggressive vegetation management in the future.”
Kaaren Cambio, Dan Crenshaw’s assistant, explained how the homeowner and trail associations around Lake Conroe regularly inspect resident properties for trees and branches that threaten power lines. She said they send letters to residents requiring them to take down such trees or trim them back.
CenterPoint can trim back limbs and trees that encroach on their easements. But CenterPoint cannot take down trees on private property. That includes trail association property. So recovery needs to be a cooperative effort.
Chris Bloch, a long-time Bear Branch Trail Association (BBTA) Board Member, was not at the meeting, but observed, “The number of trees and limbs that fell during Beryl was easily 2X+ what we had during Ike. I attribute this to two summers of drought which stressed the trees and then an exceptionally wet spring.”
Costs of Burying Power Lines Not Clear
Flickinger also said, “I’m pushing for more underground electrical lines. I want to see the analysis of the costs. I know it’s expensive, but I believe we are paying for it incrementally every time there is a storm.” Flickinger cited lost wages, the cost of backup generators, debris cleanup, and more.
CenterPoint responded that the costs of burying wires are location specific and the costs of repairing underground cables, when cut, are much higher. However, CenterPoint offered no specifics about the cost of burying power lines in Kingwood.
Impacts on the Elderly and Ill
Cambio also talked extensively about the impact of power outages on hospitals plus nursing and retirement homes.
Many operate in multi-story buildings. Elderly in wheel chairs rely on elevators. But without power, they are trapped. They can’t get up or down stairs to get to doctors. Nor do they have power for dialysis, breathing machines, etc.
Kingwood Hospital had a backup generator. But, reportedly, it was insufficient to power the entire facility.
Cambio recommended changes to state law, requiring hospitals, nursing homes and retirement homes to have sufficient backup-generator power to operate elevators and air conditioning.
The only problem: According to Chris Coulter of Texas Power Agents, such backup generators require regular maintenance. They also require oil and fuel, such as gasoline, which may be hard to find during widespread power outages. After Beryl, the lines I found at functioning gasoline stations stretched for more than a half mile.
Voluntary Best Management Practices May Not Be Enough
I asked Coulter, who was not at yesterday’s roving recovery meeting, for recommendations about how to improve electric reliability.
He immediately focused on vegetation management and tied the growth of vegetation over time with the increasing frequency of power outages.
The FERC report cited above says that utility vegetation management programs represent one of the largest recurring maintenance expenses for electric utility companies in North America.
Coulter jokingly characterized companies like CenterPoint as “tree trimming companies that happen to distribute power.”
FERC and NERC Guidlines
This FERC report is well written and easy to understand. It makes dozens of common-sense recommendations to improve electric reliability. I recommend it.
Coulter also referred me to NERC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. NERC describes itself as “… an international regulatory authority whose mission is to assure the effective and efficient reduction of risks to the reliability and security of the grid.”
Coulter said that NERC rules recognize different sizes of lines in regard to vegetation management requirements. Heavy fines apply if vegetation is ignored around lines that carry more than 100 kV.
However, lines that carry less power often get neglected – something that hampers recovery.
Coulter said that many of his Kingwood customers told him about seeing several such lines for the first time after Beryl. They didn’t even know the lines were there because they were so badly overgrown!
Said Coulter, “The NERC rules are very specific about frequency and minimum vegetation clearance distances for larger transmission (above 100 kV). Fines are steep so the utilities pay close attention and abide by the rules. However, Kingwood has a large spiderweb of distribution lines that are below that bright-line designation.”
Perhaps the fines need to apply to smaller power lines.
Next Step: Broaden the Discussion
Dee Price is reaching out to trail and community associations to set up a meeting about vegetation management. It will also involve our elected representatives, CenterPoint and Houston Public Works.
At a minimum, I came away from yesterday’s discussions with a feeling that we need to:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/3/24
2531 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 26 since Beryl
NHC Issues Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone 4
8/2/24 5PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued an advisory about Potential Tropical Cyclone 4. It affects people on the west coast of Florida for now. Since yesterday, models have come into closer alignment. There is now a higher degree of certainty that the PTC4 will track up the west coast of Florida, then cut east around Tampa and emerge into the Atlantic.
Current Status and Forecast
Land interaction with Cuba has limited strengthening of the storm today. But by 2PM Saturday, it should emerge into the eastern Gulf and intensify into a tropical storm before making landfall.
Maximum sustained winds are currently at 30 MPH, but will accelerate Saturday and Sunday.
NHC forecasts a 40-50% probability that the Florida’s western coast will see tropical storm force winds (one minute average >= 39MPH). The earliest arrival time on the southern tip of Florida is 8 AM Saturday 8/3/24.
So far, the tropical wave has not yet reached tropical storm force anywhere in the Atlantic or Caribbean. However, tropical storm watches and warnings are up for the entire western coast of Florida.
NOAA’s latest satellite imagery shows the storm centered over Cuba at 21:40 Z on 8/2/24.
Up to a Foot of Rain and 4 Feet of Storm Surge
NHC expects tropical storm conditions to follow the storm up the eastern seaboard through next Wednesday. They also warn of life-threatening storm surge (2-4 feet) and coastal flooding from Georgia to North Carolina next week. Finally, they warn of isolated river flooding.
Expect rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning.
Next Storm Name Is Debby
This storm should become “Debby.” Chris had a short life and veered into northern Mexico as Beryl was moving toward Houston.
For the time being, people in the Houston area can breathe easier. But the Atlantic hurricane season is just starting to heat up. It will peak on September 10.
Where to Find the Latest Information
Those with friends, relatives or vacation plans in the southeast can track the progress of the storm in satellite images at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php.
For the latest NHC forecasts, visit: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents.
NHC issues updates every 4 hours when a storm threatens.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/2/24 at 5:30 PM
2530 Days since Hurricane Harvey
New Forecasts Show Latest Disturbance Now Moving Toward Gulf
8/1/24 – 7PM Update – Since posting this story earlier today, NHC has shifted its predictions even farther west and increased development chances to 40% in two cays and 70% in 7 days.
8/1/24, 9 AM – According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a well-defined tropical wave is now moving toward the Gulf. This represents a significant change from earlier predictions that took the storm east of Florida.
The system is currently producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Development Chances
Development of this system should occur slowly during the next two days. Environmental conditions will soon become more conducive for development. And a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
NHC and others have discussed this tropical wave for about a week now. In the last 2 days, shower and thunderstorm development has become better organized, but there is still no defined circulation at the surface at this time.
The wave axis should reach Cuba by early this weekend. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, land interaction will likely prevent any sort of significant development in the near term – unless a center forms either south or north of the inlands.
Likely Track
Toward this weekend it is now likely that the wave will enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, the steering patterns become highly complex.
Forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty. Different models show numerous outcomes in the eastern Gulf during the next 5-7 days.
Weak Storm Likely at This Point
Intensity forecasts are also very uncertain at this point. Most models predict a weak system. But once a defined surface center forms, intensification looks likely.
Factors Supporting Development
Lindner points to three factors supporting eventual development.
Conditions supporting intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico include:
Role of Dual Outflow Channels in Formation
Meteorologists frequently talk about shear and sea surface temperatures in relation to hurricane formation. But they talk less often about the importance of outflow channels. How do outflow channels support hurricane formation?
According to ChatGPT, they provide:
Dual outflow channels thus help enhance the structural integrity, efficiency, and intensity of hurricanes.
Preparations
At this time, no one predicts that the storm will reach as far west as Houston. But last week, no one predicted that it would reach the Gulf either.
As always, your best bet is to be prepared for anything. Restock food, water and batteries used after Beryl. Recharge your backups. And monitor the NHC daily.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/1/24
2529 Days since Hurricane Harvey