8/12/24 – An August 8 update to NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook still calls for an extremely active hurricane season with 17-24 named storms, including four so far with a fifth brewing in the Atlantic. The main difference between this and NOAA’s May predictions? A higher confidence level.
As of 2PM EDT, NHC indicated that sustained winds from Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 5 averaged 35 MPH. That puts it just 4 MPH from becoming the fifth named storm of the year, Ernesto. Here’s what it looks like this afternoon.
PTC 5 as of 8/12/24 Noon CDT.
NHC gives PTC 5 a 100% chance of formation. It should intensify into a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Thursday. However, it will curve northward into the open Atlantic and does not pose a threat to the Gulf Coast.
We normally don’t get a fifth named storm in the Atlantic until August 22. After that, we normally get a named storm every 7-10 days through October 11. This year, they will likely be more frequent.
Teach Your Family about Hurricanes
The National Hurricane Center website provides an almost bottomless well of free, educational resources. Today, I clicked on Outreach Resources and found presentations and publications geared to all age and professional levels.
Learning Opportunities for K-12 Students (Resources for Teachers) includes:
Again, #5 contains additional explanation when slide graphics in presentations 1-4 may not be totally intuitive.
Information that Saves Lives
FEMA geared the presentations in the second two groups to adults, both in an out of government. The coastal presentations contain more emphasis on storm surge. The inland presentations emphasize riverine flooding from the heavy rains that often accompany hurricanes.
The information in both groups can benefit teachers, parents, first responders, emergency managers, and government leaders.
They explain various tools, terms and graphics used by NOAA, NHC, NWS, and NHP to help everyone make informed decisions when planning for and responding to hurricane threats.
For instance, I found the discussion on inundation mapping that involved forecasts and “nowcasts” very illuminating. Ditto for the discussion about how NHC determines the timing and probabilities in its graphics. How much water it takes to make cars float and lose traction. How emergency planners work together. And more. Much more.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/12/24
2540 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/IMAGE-Update-Hurricane-Outlook-August-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-080824-NOAA.png?fit=3840%2C2373&ssl=123733840adminadmin2024-08-12 13:33:302024-08-12 13:34:192024 Hurricane Season Update, PTC 5 Status and Learning Resources
8/11/24 – Tree Lane Bridge repairs are finally starting…again. By my count, this will make the fifth time if you include the 2020 and 2022 repairs that each failed within months, and two aborted starts earlier this year. Hopefully, Houston Public Works will complete the repairs this time and they will stick.
Third Round of Repairs in Five Years
The current rehab project is the third in five years. That speaks to the quality of engineering, contracting and supervision in Houston Public Works. See the list of my articles about Tree Lane Bridge problems below. I’ve listed them in reverse chronological order.
Construction of the most recent repair project was to have started in February this year. But contractors finally showed up 1.5 months later in early April. They did some tree trimming, parked their equipment and disappeared.
The project was to have been completed by 6/28 this year. But on 6/28, the job site was vacant, except for the equipment which had been parked months earlier. The biggest visible change: additional erosion, most likely due to the May flood, threatened a giant excavator that had been parked close to Bens Branch.
Erosion creeped toward parked excavator. Photo taken 6/17/24.
In June, I asked about delays and was informed by the project manager that they were waiting on unspecified utilities to move newly discovered utility lines.
In fairness, on 6/17/24, I did observe a utility crew burying cable in the vicinity. Public Works said on 7/2/24 that “all utility relocates have been completed.” However, as of 8/11, a water line and a cable are still clearly visible at the bottom of the creek and in the way of the project. See below.
Photo taken 8/11/24, six months after project start. Those exposed lines show up in photos taken in 2019.
The announcement of the most recent delay was even more vague. It announced “changes” due to “unforeseen circumstances” as the cause. I emailed and went online to find specifics. But not a clue!
Was it weather? Management? Engineering? Priorities? More utility conflicts? War in Ukraine? The school lunch menu?
Are the contractors even working off the right plans? The plans currently posted on Engage Houston have three different dates on them: 2018, 2022 and 2023. But I see nothing dated 2024. What delayed the project six months?
Contractors Return Just in Time for Back-to-School Traffic
After equipment sat idle virtually all summer, contractors returned to the job site just in time for the start of school. The bridge sits next to Bear Branch Elementary, which more than 600 students attend.
Last week, I made the mistake of trying to cross the bridge at 8AM. After project managers promised that construction activity would NOT interfere with school traffic, there the contractors were…with traffic at a standstill and backed up five blocks.
Later that afternoon, I received an email from the project manager. This email announced that the project would finish in “Fall 2024.” I would remind you that technically Fall lasts through December 21. That’s more than 4 months away. And more than 4 years after the 2020 repairs. But who ‘s counting?
Photos as of 8/11/2024
I took the photos below this afternoon so you can see how much progress has been made since February.
Looking N from S side of bridge at work on E wall.
Note all the construction debris piled in the middle of the creek, waiting for more heavy rain.
Looking N.Looking S from N side of bridge at W side work.
Vegas is taking odds on whether Public Works will be able to live within its $909,000 estimate for this job.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/11/24
2539 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20240811-DJI_20240811165724_0569_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-08-11 20:16:162024-08-11 21:40:18Tree Lane Bridge Repairs Finally Starting Again…Hopefully For Last Time
8/10/2024 – Sometimes Randy Reagan must feel that he has struggled for most of his adult life against rising floodwaters, sand mines and the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA). He has flooded six times in the last nine years. Still, he’s rebuilding on a lot he bought 30 years ago. But he’s doing it differently this time.
May 2024 Flood. Reagan property in background. Note roof of submerged vehicle in foreground.
Erosion of Country Lifestyle
Reagan grew up not far from the San Jacinto West Fork. He remembers a time as a child before Lake Conroe when the river ran clear and teemed with fish.
His wife grew up in the same neighborhood. Her parents were the first settlers in an area that came to be known as Bennett Estates between FM1314 and the San Jacinto West Fork.
They loved living near the river and all the abundant wildlife. So Reagan bought 5.5 acres for $10,000 back in the mid-’90s. He put a mobile home on it and started raising a family. He hunted all the meat his family ate from his own property and the surrounding forests. Life was good.
The 1994 flood was the highest ever in that area. The SJRA released 56,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) from Lake Conroe during the storm. So Reagan elevated his home a foot above the high water mark from that storm and figured he was safe.
But gradually, his dream of peaceful, country living turned sour. In the mid-2000s, two companies started mining sand near his home – one a few blocks north, the other immediately south of his property.
The mines accelerated runoff and erosion. They also changed local drainage patterns in ways that flooded his property.
In the meantime, upstream areas grew, also increasing runoff. And by the time I first met Reagan in early 2020, his property had flooded five times in four years. The worst: Harvey in 2017. Ninety-three inches of water invaded his home. That’s almost 8 feet! See that story here.
Eventually, Reagan tore down the mobil home. Repeat flooding had caused the foundation to shift and destabilized it. He and his wife began living in his workshop or with relatives.
Reagan tried to get a low-interest SBA loan through FEMA to rebuild. But they denied him because he had “let his flood insurance lapse after Harvey.”
“Of course I let it lapse,” said Reagan. “There was nothing left to insure. The home was gone.”
Fast Forward Four Years
The May flood this year swamped his property again after the SJRA opened the gates on Lake Conroe and began releasing 72,000 CFS, the second highest release rate in SJRA history.
Reagan points to high water mark on his shop from May 2024 flood – 52 inches.
Only Harvey exceeded that rate. SJRA released 79,000 CFS in 2017 during Harvey.
Since then, Reagan began planning his comeback against Mother Nature, the sand mines and SJRA.
His dream now is to build a foundation for a new home up 10 feet above the original level of the land. That would make the land higher than the Harvey high-water mark.
Then he wants to build a new home up on stilts, another ten feet above the elevated foundation. It would be elevated 20 feet above his first home on the property and more than 10 feet above Harvey. Hopefully, that will keep him safe for a few years.
The retired oil-field worker and bull rider is looking at designs from UB Homes. He also hired a MoCo excavation company, Graham Land Services, to excavate a pond at the back of the property.
Dirt from pond excavation (background) is being used to build up home pad (foreground).
Dirt from the pond is building up the foundation where his new home will go.
Pros and Cons of Rebuilding in Location that Floods
On the plus side:
Mining behind his property has ceased. He now has a 42-acre pond behind him. No one will ever build behind him and spoil his view.
He can still hunt on his property.
Despite the flooding, property values have appreciated. Not far away, a home recently went up for sale at $1.4 million.
Development in surrounding areas has brought shopping, services and hospitals closer to home without changing his country-living atmosphere.
The May flood deposited fish in Reagan’s pond, which are now thriving.
Randy Reagan property lower right.
On the minus side:
All the tractor work has taken a toll on Reagan’s aging body. He complains of aching joints and bulging disks in his back and neck. He’s also fighting knee and shoulder pain from a lifetime of backbreaking work in the oil fields and on his property.
He wishes SJRA would pre-release water from Lake Conroe at much slower rates in advance of major storms, but has little hope that they will. “This May flood could have been totally avoided if they would have let water out sooner,” said Reagan. “SJRA needs to start operating the Lake Conroe Dam a lot better than what they’re doing.”
Reagan feels SJRA places Lake Conroe recreation above the protection of downstream property.
He feels he would have to move north of Huntsville to find the kind of flood-safe country living he once enjoyed. “It’s hard to get a piece of country living anymore in Montgomery County. It’s all going away,” said Reagan.
A Pioneer Spirit
Reagan typifies the struggle many Houstonians feel. He loves nature and living near water – until floods exact their terrible price. Still, he returns. To fight for a life he loves.
Reagan takes a break from moving in front of the property being raised for a new home.
I admire the fact that he’s not waiting for others to protect him from the ravages of West Fork flooding. By elevating his property and home, he’s protecting himself and his family.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/10/24
2538 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20240810-440497047_452461260667459_6359157880369095417_n.jpg?fit=1100%2C825&ssl=18251100adminadmin2024-08-10 18:05:542024-08-10 18:36:31One Man’s Struggle Against Rising Floodwaters, Sand Mines and SJRA
2024 Hurricane Season Update, PTC 5 Status and Learning Resources
8/12/24 – An August 8 update to NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook still calls for an extremely active hurricane season with 17-24 named storms, including four so far with a fifth brewing in the Atlantic. The main difference between this and NOAA’s May predictions? A higher confidence level.
The main factors that affect the latest predictions for the 2024 hurricane season include:
For more on the science behind the outlook, visit NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
#5 in the Hurricane Season About to Form
As of 2PM EDT, NHC indicated that sustained winds from Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 5 averaged 35 MPH. That puts it just 4 MPH from becoming the fifth named storm of the year, Ernesto. Here’s what it looks like this afternoon.
NHC gives PTC 5 a 100% chance of formation. It should intensify into a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Thursday. However, it will curve northward into the open Atlantic and does not pose a threat to the Gulf Coast.
We normally don’t get a fifth named storm in the Atlantic until August 22. After that, we normally get a named storm every 7-10 days through October 11. This year, they will likely be more frequent.
Teach Your Family about Hurricanes
The National Hurricane Center website provides an almost bottomless well of free, educational resources. Today, I clicked on Outreach Resources and found presentations and publications geared to all age and professional levels.
Learning Opportunities for K-12 Students (Resources for Teachers) includes:
Hurricane Readiness for Coastal Communities
The guide (#5) contains a narrative embellishes the slides in the first four presentations.
Hurricane Readiness for Inland Communities
Again, #5 contains additional explanation when slide graphics in presentations 1-4 may not be totally intuitive.
Information that Saves Lives
FEMA geared the presentations in the second two groups to adults, both in an out of government. The coastal presentations contain more emphasis on storm surge. The inland presentations emphasize riverine flooding from the heavy rains that often accompany hurricanes.
The information in both groups can benefit teachers, parents, first responders, emergency managers, and government leaders.
They explain various tools, terms and graphics used by NOAA, NHC, NWS, and NHP to help everyone make informed decisions when planning for and responding to hurricane threats.
For instance, I found the discussion on inundation mapping that involved forecasts and “nowcasts” very illuminating. Ditto for the discussion about how NHC determines the timing and probabilities in its graphics. How much water it takes to make cars float and lose traction. How emergency planners work together. And more. Much more.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/12/24
2540 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tree Lane Bridge Repairs Finally Starting Again…Hopefully For Last Time
8/11/24 – Tree Lane Bridge repairs are finally starting…again. By my count, this will make the fifth time if you include the 2020 and 2022 repairs that each failed within months, and two aborted starts earlier this year. Hopefully, Houston Public Works will complete the repairs this time and they will stick.
Third Round of Repairs in Five Years
The current rehab project is the third in five years. That speaks to the quality of engineering, contracting and supervision in Houston Public Works. See the list of my articles about Tree Lane Bridge problems below. I’ve listed them in reverse chronological order.
6/28/24 Tree Lane Project Supposed to be Done Today, But Hasn’t Started
4/9/24 City Begins Tree Lane Bridge Repairs
2/21/24 CoH Public Works Kicks Off Tree Lane Bridge Rehab Project
11/28/23 Tree Lane Bridge over Bens Branch Still Standing
6/12/23 Flood Damage To Tree Lane Bridge Over Ben’s Branch Accelerates
1/29/23 Tree Lane Bridge over Ben’s Branch Damaged…Again
3/21/22 How Insufficiently Mitigated Upstream Development Imposes Taxation without Representation on Downstream Residents
3/31/20 City Completes Repairs on Tree Lane Bridge, But Concerns Remain
2/29/20 Tree Lane Bridge over Ben’s Branch: Before and After Repairs
12/2/19 Tree Lane Bridge vs. Power of Moving Water
Unexplained Delays, Changes
Construction of the most recent repair project was to have started in February this year. But contractors finally showed up 1.5 months later in early April. They did some tree trimming, parked their equipment and disappeared.
The project was to have been completed by 6/28 this year. But on 6/28, the job site was vacant, except for the equipment which had been parked months earlier. The biggest visible change: additional erosion, most likely due to the May flood, threatened a giant excavator that had been parked close to Bens Branch.
In June, I asked about delays and was informed by the project manager that they were waiting on unspecified utilities to move newly discovered utility lines.
In fairness, on 6/17/24, I did observe a utility crew burying cable in the vicinity. Public Works said on 7/2/24 that “all utility relocates have been completed.” However, as of 8/11, a water line and a cable are still clearly visible at the bottom of the creek and in the way of the project. See below.
The announcement of the most recent delay was even more vague. It announced “changes” due to “unforeseen circumstances” as the cause. I emailed and went online to find specifics. But not a clue!
Was it weather? Management? Engineering? Priorities? More utility conflicts? War in Ukraine? The school lunch menu?
Are the contractors even working off the right plans? The plans currently posted on Engage Houston have three different dates on them: 2018, 2022 and 2023. But I see nothing dated 2024. What delayed the project six months?
Contractors Return Just in Time for Back-to-School Traffic
After equipment sat idle virtually all summer, contractors returned to the job site just in time for the start of school. The bridge sits next to Bear Branch Elementary, which more than 600 students attend.
Last week, I made the mistake of trying to cross the bridge at 8AM. After project managers promised that construction activity would NOT interfere with school traffic, there the contractors were…with traffic at a standstill and backed up five blocks.
Later that afternoon, I received an email from the project manager. This email announced that the project would finish in “Fall 2024.” I would remind you that technically Fall lasts through December 21. That’s more than 4 months away. And more than 4 years after the 2020 repairs. But who ‘s counting?
Photos as of 8/11/2024
I took the photos below this afternoon so you can see how much progress has been made since February.
Note all the construction debris piled in the middle of the creek, waiting for more heavy rain.
Vegas is taking odds on whether Public Works will be able to live within its $909,000 estimate for this job.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/11/24
2539 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
One Man’s Struggle Against Rising Floodwaters, Sand Mines and SJRA
8/10/2024 – Sometimes Randy Reagan must feel that he has struggled for most of his adult life against rising floodwaters, sand mines and the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA). He has flooded six times in the last nine years. Still, he’s rebuilding on a lot he bought 30 years ago. But he’s doing it differently this time.
Erosion of Country Lifestyle
Reagan grew up not far from the San Jacinto West Fork. He remembers a time as a child before Lake Conroe when the river ran clear and teemed with fish.
His wife grew up in the same neighborhood. Her parents were the first settlers in an area that came to be known as Bennett Estates between FM1314 and the San Jacinto West Fork.
They loved living near the river and all the abundant wildlife. So Reagan bought 5.5 acres for $10,000 back in the mid-’90s. He put a mobile home on it and started raising a family. He hunted all the meat his family ate from his own property and the surrounding forests. Life was good.
The 1994 flood was the highest ever in that area. The SJRA released 56,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) from Lake Conroe during the storm. So Reagan elevated his home a foot above the high water mark from that storm and figured he was safe.
But gradually, his dream of peaceful, country living turned sour. In the mid-2000s, two companies started mining sand near his home – one a few blocks north, the other immediately south of his property.
The mines accelerated runoff and erosion. They also changed local drainage patterns in ways that flooded his property.
In the meantime, upstream areas grew, also increasing runoff. And by the time I first met Reagan in early 2020, his property had flooded five times in four years. The worst: Harvey in 2017. Ninety-three inches of water invaded his home. That’s almost 8 feet! See that story here.
Eventually, Reagan tore down the mobil home. Repeat flooding had caused the foundation to shift and destabilized it. He and his wife began living in his workshop or with relatives.
Reagan tried to get a low-interest SBA loan through FEMA to rebuild. But they denied him because he had “let his flood insurance lapse after Harvey.”
“Of course I let it lapse,” said Reagan. “There was nothing left to insure. The home was gone.”
Fast Forward Four Years
The May flood this year swamped his property again after the SJRA opened the gates on Lake Conroe and began releasing 72,000 CFS, the second highest release rate in SJRA history.
Only Harvey exceeded that rate. SJRA released 79,000 CFS in 2017 during Harvey.
Since then, Reagan began planning his comeback against Mother Nature, the sand mines and SJRA.
His dream now is to build a foundation for a new home up 10 feet above the original level of the land. That would make the land higher than the Harvey high-water mark.
Then he wants to build a new home up on stilts, another ten feet above the elevated foundation. It would be elevated 20 feet above his first home on the property and more than 10 feet above Harvey. Hopefully, that will keep him safe for a few years.
The retired oil-field worker and bull rider is looking at designs from UB Homes. He also hired a MoCo excavation company, Graham Land Services, to excavate a pond at the back of the property.
Dirt from the pond is building up the foundation where his new home will go.
Pros and Cons of Rebuilding in Location that Floods
On the plus side:
On the minus side:
A Pioneer Spirit
Reagan typifies the struggle many Houstonians feel. He loves nature and living near water – until floods exact their terrible price. Still, he returns. To fight for a life he loves.
I admire the fact that he’s not waiting for others to protect him from the ravages of West Fork flooding. By elevating his property and home, he’s protecting himself and his family.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/10/24
2538 Days since Hurricane Harvey