10/5/24 – Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Within hours this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded an area of low pressure to a tropical depression and then again to a tropical storm.
At this time, NHC predicts it will move toward the west coast of Florida and strengthen to or near MAJOR hurricane strength.
Milton currently does not affect the upper Texas coast, nor is it expected to, except for some welcome cloudiness.
Graphic from 10 AM CDT today BEFORE depression strengthened into TS Milton.NHC will update its graphics at 4 PM CDT.
Here’s what the storm looked like from a satellite: slight rotation at the left and the beginning of banding.
As of 1:21 Houston time
Forecast
At 12:25 PM CDT, NHC said satellite data indicated that the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that, a trough moving southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed.
On the current track, Milton will cross the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Models agree on the track, but not the forward speed, so timing could vary. NHC reminds residents not to focus on the exact track because the average 4-day track error is about 150 miles.
Milton is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. With those conditions, NHC expects rapid strengthening over the next few days. The rate of strengthening should increase after an inner core forms in the next 12 to 24 hours. NHC forecasts rapid intensification after 36 hours.
The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models are in good consensus on this point. But some suggest Milton will grow even stronger.
Regardless, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, or travel plans in the affected area, remember these key points.
Milton will quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials. Check the NHC site regularly for updates.
Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton. Expect heavy rainfall more directly related to the system by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
Major Hurricane Count So Far this Season
In an average hurricane season, the Atlantic basin normally sees three major hurricanes. And so far, we’ve had three.
Beryl – 160 MPH
Helene – 140 MPH
Kirk – 120 MPH
But usually, we don’t get the third until the end of October – October 28th to be exact. Four at the beginning of October is slightly unusual. And we still have almost two months left in this season.
Maybe this will be an extreme season after all.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/5/24
2594 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/two_atl_7d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-10-05 13:57:592024-10-05 13:58:00Tropical Storm Milton Forms in Gulf; Expected to Become Major Hurricane
10/04/24 – At 3 AM this morning, contractors narrowed outbound traffic down to one lane to begin pouring more Northpark concrete west of the entrance to Kings Mill.
It wasn’t the first pour in the two-mile-long project designed to create an all-weather evacuation route from Kingwood. And it won’t be the last. But together with other improvements, one can finally start to see the finished project taking shape.
The pour continued until early afternoon. Elsewhere along Northpark, one could see other workers installing asphalt underlayment for future concrete pours and working on lateral drainage where it ties into culverts down the center of the road.
Next Steps
Contractors are also getting ready to bore under the UnionPacific Railroad Tracks, Loop 494 and Northpark itself. The bore(s) will connect via a series of junction boxes to “Ditch One” behind Public Storage and Dunkin’ Donuts.
From there, the ditch will carry excess stormwater to Ben’s Branch and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.
Pictures Taken 10/4/24
I took the following pictures of more Northpark concrete being poured around 10 AM this morning.
Grayish areas in center show partially dried and freshly poured concrete from this morning.New concrete now extends west to QuickQuack Car Wash from Kings Mill entrance in both directions.Looking E toward Russell Palmer. Another concrete truck pulls up to unload as men spread and smooth previous loads.Looking W. Fresh asphalt extending west from Russell Palmer will become the base for the next rounds of concrete.
Plans also call for widening 494. It too will become three lanes in each direction. See below.
Looking W toward entry ponds and US59. Note the road bed prep next to the Shell Station and Loop 494.
More Northpark concrete should be poured next Friday – 10/11/24. Again, it will happen between approximately 3 AM and 1 PM and should involve the closure of at least one lane.
Also of note: on the last weekend of October, there will be a full closure of Northpark at the Russel Palmer intersection to place paving across the intersection. This will begin on Friday and completely close the intersection until Monday morning 5AM. Detours will be in place for Russel Palmer traffic.
10/3/24 – For those who missed the meeting in Atascocita earlier this week, Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE, has scheduled another meeting to explain the thinking behind Harris County Flood Control District’s Proposition A on the November ballot. The tax meeting will be on October 16 between 6:00 PM and 7:30 PM.
The venue will be the Kingwood Community Center, 4102 Rustic Woods Drive, Kingwood, TX 77345. See poster below.
…we haven’t yet gotten much help to reduce flooding from Harris County.
Flooding Vs. Funding
These two charts tell the story.
Chart showing feet above flood stage of 33 gages of misc. bayous in Harris County during Harvey.Humble/Kingwood area at far left.San Jacinto Watershed ranks 13th out of 23 watersheds despite being the county’s largest.
Then the same thing happened with the 2022 bond. The lone Republican precinct (which includes Kingwood) was promised a minimum of $220 million by Democratic commissioners. Then they changed the deal after the election. Again. And shortchanged the lone Republican precinct by almost $50 million.
We’re constantly adding to inventory that needs maintenance
Aging assets require more maintenance
Years ago, Commissioners looted HCFCD funds for the Hospital District
HCFCD could do a better job with more maintenance dollars.
On the other hand, it’s also true that:
The amount of the increase is 63%.
The publicity is all about maintenance. But the ballot language includes operations.
The proposition does not include any commitments about when, where or on what the money will be spent.
There’s nothing to preclude another switcheroo.
Since announcing the completion of Project Brays in May 2022, HCFCD has spent 2.5X more money on Brays Bayou than it has on the entire San Jacinto River Watershed. That’s through the end of 2Q2024 ($26.5 million vs. $10.5 million).
By the way, Democratic Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives in the Brays Bayou Watershed.
Commissioner Ramsey is a fair and honest man. He fights hard for us in every Commissioner’s Court meeting. He’s just outnumbered.
I will see you at the tax meeting. Come with an open mind.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/3/24
2592 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Flood-Control-Prop-A-Flyer-UPDATE.jpg?fit=1545%2C2000&ssl=120001545adminadmin2024-10-03 18:44:292024-10-03 18:44:30Save the Date: HCFCD Tax Meeting Scheduled for Kingwood on Oct. 16
Tropical Storm Milton Forms in Gulf; Expected to Become Major Hurricane
10/5/24 – Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Within hours this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded an area of low pressure to a tropical depression and then again to a tropical storm.
At this time, NHC predicts it will move toward the west coast of Florida and strengthen to or near MAJOR hurricane strength.
Milton currently does not affect the upper Texas coast, nor is it expected to, except for some welcome cloudiness.
Here’s what the storm looked like from a satellite: slight rotation at the left and the beginning of banding.
Forecast
At 12:25 PM CDT, NHC said satellite data indicated that the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that, a trough moving
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a
slightly faster forward speed.
On the current track, Milton will cross the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Models agree on the track, but not the forward speed, so timing could vary. NHC reminds residents not to focus on the exact track because the average 4-day track error is about 150 miles.
Milton is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. With those conditions, NHC expects rapid strengthening over the next few days. The rate of strengthening should increase after an inner core forms in the next 12 to 24 hours. NHC forecasts rapid intensification after 36 hours.
The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models are in good consensus on this point. But some suggest Milton will grow even stronger.
Regardless, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, or travel plans in the affected area, remember these key points.
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
Major Hurricane Count So Far this Season
In an average hurricane season, the Atlantic basin normally sees three major hurricanes. And so far, we’ve had three.
But usually, we don’t get the third until the end of October – October 28th to be exact. Four at the beginning of October is slightly unusual. And we still have almost two months left in this season.
Maybe this will be an extreme season after all.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/5/24
2594 Days since Hurricane Harvey
More Northpark Concrete Poured Today; Expansion Update
10/04/24 – At 3 AM this morning, contractors narrowed outbound traffic down to one lane to begin pouring more Northpark concrete west of the entrance to Kings Mill.
It wasn’t the first pour in the two-mile-long project designed to create an all-weather evacuation route from Kingwood. And it won’t be the last. But together with other improvements, one can finally start to see the finished project taking shape.
The pour continued until early afternoon. Elsewhere along Northpark, one could see other workers installing asphalt underlayment for future concrete pours and working on lateral drainage where it ties into culverts down the center of the road.
Next Steps
Contractors are also getting ready to bore under the UnionPacific Railroad Tracks, Loop 494 and Northpark itself. The bore(s) will connect via a series of junction boxes to “Ditch One” behind Public Storage and Dunkin’ Donuts.
From there, the ditch will carry excess stormwater to Ben’s Branch and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.
Pictures Taken 10/4/24
I took the following pictures of more Northpark concrete being poured around 10 AM this morning.
Plans also call for widening 494. It too will become three lanes in each direction. See below.
More Northpark concrete should be poured next Friday – 10/11/24. Again, it will happen between approximately 3 AM and 1 PM and should involve the closure of at least one lane.
Also of note: on the last weekend of October, there will be a full closure of Northpark at the Russel Palmer intersection to place paving across the intersection. This will begin on Friday and completely close the intersection until Monday morning 5AM. Detours will be in place for Russel Palmer traffic.
For More Information
Consult the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority project pages including a new 3-week lookahead schedule posted today.
For a history of the project and its goals, see these ReduceFlooding posts:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/4/24
2593 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Save the Date: HCFCD Tax Meeting Scheduled for Kingwood on Oct. 16
10/3/24 – For those who missed the meeting in Atascocita earlier this week, Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE, has scheduled another meeting to explain the thinking behind Harris County Flood Control District’s Proposition A on the November ballot. The tax meeting will be on October 16 between 6:00 PM and 7:30 PM.
The venue will be the Kingwood Community Center, 4102 Rustic Woods Drive, Kingwood, TX 77345. See poster below.
Why Tax Meeting is Important
Since Hurricane Harvey, the specter of flooding has cast a cloud over Kingwood’s future. Despite Kingwood residents:
…we haven’t yet gotten much help to reduce flooding from Harris County.
Flooding Vs. Funding
These two charts tell the story.
Shortly after the 2018 flood bond passed, Democratic commissioners changed the “worst first” deal.
Then the same thing happened with the 2022 bond. The lone Republican precinct (which includes Kingwood) was promised a minimum of $220 million by Democratic commissioners. Then they changed the deal after the election. Again. And shortchanged the lone Republican precinct by almost $50 million.
Will It Happen Again?
Go to the meeting and ask some tough questions.
I have mixed emotions about HCFCD Proposition A.
On one hand, it’s true that:
On the other hand, it’s also true that:
By the way, Democratic Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives in the Brays Bayou Watershed.
Commissioner Ramsey is a fair and honest man. He fights hard for us in every Commissioner’s Court meeting. He’s just outnumbered.
I will see you at the tax meeting. Come with an open mind.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/3/24
2592 Days since Hurricane Harvey