Congressional Budget Office Provides Wealth of Flood Data

9/5/2024 – The Congressional Budget Office has produced a series of reports that provides a wealth of flood data.

Economist Evan Herrnstadt, Ph.D., was interviewed today in a First Street Foundation webinar. He has produced an impressive, data-packed series of reports on different aspects of flooding for public-policy makers. Herrnstadt is the Principal Analyst in the Microeconomic Studies Division of the Congressional Budget Office.

Nine Studies Examine Financial, Demographic Impacts of Flooding

To make his team’s work easier to find and review, I’ve posted their studies on the Reports Page of ReduceFlooding.com under a new Congressional Budget Office Tab. Below are links to and one sentence descriptions for each of the nine reports.

Climate Work provides an overview of several different studies and presents key findings. It’s a good starting point.
Effects of Flood Damage on the Subsidy Cost of Federally Backed Mortgages. Uses data on mortgages and expected flood damage for each residential property in the United States to examine how much flood damage is expected to increase the cost of federally backed mortgages (referred to as the subsidy cost).
Flood Insurance in Communities at Risk of Flooding. Examines how properties at risk of flooding share the cost of NFIP policies across communities with different economic and demographic characteristics.
Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and Homeowner’s Insurance. Analyzes recent changes in property insurance markets and considers alternative insurance products as well as policy approaches to increase the availability and affordability of insurance for homeowners and renters.
Flood Damage and Federally Backed Mortgages in a Changing Climate. Estimates how much flood damage homes with federally backed mortgages are expected to face in two multiyear projection periods, one centered on 2020 and the other centered on 2050.
Communities at Risk of Flooding. Examines how projected flood risk varies across communities with different economic and demographic characteristics in two multiyear projection periods, one centered on 2020 and the other centered on 2050.
FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund: Budgetary History and Projections. Deals with budgetary issues past and present in the face of irregularly occurring disasters.
Army Corps of Engineers: Budgetary History and Projections. Explains the Corps’ purpose, scope of operations, and how Congress has budgeted allocations for it.
Flood Damage Avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations. Provides an estimate of the potential damage avoided from spending by governments and homeowners on property-level flood risk adaptations, primarily buyouts and elevations.

Clearing out the Cobwebs

The wealth of flood data in these reports is national, not local. Regardless, good economists have a way of clearing out the cobwebs. And Herrnstadt clearly knows how to put things in perspective. I will refer to these reports from time to time in the future.

For now, let me just quote a couple eye-bulging stats from the last report. “Flood Damage avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations” looks at buyouts and home elevations. When looking at 1.3 million homes, Herrnstadt found that avoided costs averaged $2.69 for every $1 invested. If those projects were all completed, they would cost a total of $193 billion and prevent $519 billion of expected damages during the next 30 years.

In extreme cases, Herrnstadt found the payback ratio could be 6 to 1. And that doesn’t even include “pain and suffering” costs associated with flood damage.