9/8/24 – At 4 PM, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 (PTC 6). PTC 6 is currently an elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
PTC 6 is currently trying to organize over the Bay of Campeche.Satellite photo from Sept. 8, 2024, at 3 PM CDT.
Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds should reach the Houston area by Tuesday night. And the system should become a hurricane by Wednesday afternoon. (See graphics below.)
Tropical-storm-force winds already extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center.
Wind-Speed Classifications
Tropical cyclones rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. They are classified as follows:
Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less.
Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots).
Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher.
Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph (96 knots) or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Models suggest the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 should become well defined by tomorrow afternoon. Until then, the track forecast remains very uncertain.
Life-Threatening Storm Surge
According to the NHC, it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts. However, NHC warns that the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines beginning Tuesday night.
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding.
Graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6
CenterPoint Warning
At 2:45 CDT, CenterPoint Energy texted warnings to customers. “We continue to monitor and prepare for a potential tropical system in the Gulf which may impact the Greater Houston area over the next few days.”
The text continued, “We encourage you to prepare an emergency plan. Customers who depend on electricity for life-sustaining equipment are encouraged to make alternate arrangements for on-site backup capabilities or other alternatives in the event of loss of electric service. For safety tips, visit CenterPointEnergy.com/StormCenter.”
After Beryl, I purchased power system that can be charged by solar panels. I’m feeling pretty good about that purchase now.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/8/24based on information from NHC
2567 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/210159_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-09-08 16:40:542024-09-08 17:59:24NHC Issues Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6
9/7/24 – For seven years, I have focused on ways to reduce flooding. But today, I’d like to discuss a big way not to reduce flooding – by deferring maintenance.
Deferring Maintenance: A Bad Idea
One of the most common root causes of flooding that I see is delayed, deferred, overlooked and/or ignored maintenance. You wouldn’t buy a new car and not maintain it. It’s the same way with flood control. But that’s what we’ve been doing.
If you build a channel or a ditch, you should budget routine inspections, and periodic repairs and maintenance.
For a dramatic example, see the two photos below. As I was driving south on Loop 494 this afternoon, I saw a scene near East Memorial Drive that reminded me of a preventable flooding disaster in Porter back in 2018.
Local businesses flooded when the ditch below at the end of the road backed water up.
TxDOT improved the ditch that caused the flooding above. But guess what? The blockage is back. I took the picture below this afternoon.
Blocked ditch on Loop 494 and Memorial Drivein Porter, Montgomery County.
Mike Eberle, a business owner nearby who flooded back in 2018, dubbed this area the Porter Dam. Oops. Back where we started.
The ditch has silted in. And vegetation is growing up through the grate. Meanwhile, debris washed down the ditch and has blocked it even more. It’s only a matter of time before flooding recurs.
Will clearing the Porter Dam be high on TxDOT’s to-do list in the next five days? Probably not. Even though the rain predicted could exceed the amount that caused the flooding above.
Deferred Maintenance: A Problem Everywhere
Deferred maintenance is a huge problem everywhere, not just in Montgomery County or on TxDOT roads. And it’s not just vegetation management.
Erosion, when ignored, can run wild and threaten homes. In the case below, it was neglected so long that trees fell into the ditch and blocked it, backing water up.
Eroded ditch in Huffman. Erosion like this didn’t happen overnight.Eroding ditch in Liberty County has grown more than 80 feet in width in just 10 years and now threatens homes.
And wherever sediment accumulates, it can cause ditches to lose much of their ability to convey stormwater. Bens Branch, for instance, was down to a “2-year level-of-service” in places. That means, water would come out of the banks after a two-year rain. See the first picture below.
Bens Branch at Rocky Woods in January 2021 before start of clean-out project. Over the years, deferred maintenance had reduced the conveyance of the stream.
However, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) initiated a clean-out effort to restore the conveyance of Ben’s Branch from Northpark Drive to Kings Harbor. In this section alone, HCFCD removed more than 10,000 cubic yards of accumulated sediment.
Same area four months later after restoration. Greenish substance on banks is hydromulch.
Plea for Tax Increase to Improve Maintenance
In Harris County, HCFCD created this presentation on deferred maintenance for Commissioners Court consideration on 8/15/24. It makes the case for a potential tax increase which voters will be asked to approve on November 5.
Key points:
We have a huge amount of drainage infrastructure requiring regular maintenance.
Much of the infrastructure is nearing the end of its useful life (when it costs more to maintain).
And every year, we add more and more infrastructure requiring more maintenance.
But investment in maintenance has been flat over time (see graph below).
Maintenance investment has lagged behind capital improvement spending by as much as 9 to 1.
Flood control is asking for an additional $110 million for its maintenance budget to help remedy these problems. Any increase in tax revenue would go to the HCFCD’s dedicated maintenance account. Those funds are marked specifically for maintenance efforts and support services, according to Emily Woodell, a department spokesperson.
Fool Me Twice?
I can support the HCFCD request. But before I vote for it, I want to see language in the proposal that guarantees it won’t all be spent somewhere else. I’d also like to see language that revokes the tax increase if it is. Or if:
Maintenance is delayed here longer than anywhere else.
Social factors, not flood risk, determine the distribution of dollars.
County leaders try to redefine the commonly accepted, dictionary meanings of terms like “equity” or “worst.”
We’ve been burned by certain commissioners who flagrantly renege on promises made in Commissioners Court. I won’t let that happen again. As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
I intend to read this proposition very, very closely. And when I step into the voting booth, I won’t be hoping for the best. I’ll be fearing how I’ll get screwed again, exactly like we did with the 2018 and 2022 Bonds.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/24
2566 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/CommonsErosion07-copy.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2024-09-07 20:33:522024-09-20 12:21:03How NOT to Reduce Flooding: Deferring Maintenance
9/6/24 – Between yesterday and today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico for next week. Yesterday, NHC gave that orange area a 10% chance of development in the next seven days. Earlier this afternoon, they updated that to 40%. And by this evening, they upgraded it again to 50%.
Also, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a gale watch for offshore waters tomorrow. And NWS predicts another 4-10 inches of rain for the Houston area next week.
Tropical Activity Heating Up
According to the National Hurricane Center, “A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.”
Tropical outlook as of 1:50 PM EDT, 9/6/24
Here’s what those two areas currently look like on a satellite photo.
Tropics at 3:30PM CDT on 9/6/24
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea and the surface low over the NW Gulf will merge over the western Gulf going into early next week. As high pressure over the plains moves eastward the steering flow will turn to the south and begin to lift whatever is in the western Gulf northward toward the TX coast.”
Another 4-10 Inches of Rain Predicted for Next Week
Lindner predicts increasing moisture late Monday with a much more significant surge of moisture coming into the area starting on Tuesday. Regardless of tropical formation, rains will spread northward from the Gulf into the Houston area. Heavy rainfall looks possible into the middle of next week.
The National Weather Service predicts accumulations in the next seven days could range from 4-10 inches in the Houston region. The larger accumulations will be near the coast. Rainfall totals offshore could range up to 20 inches!
Compare dark to light green peaks in bottom graph.
High Winds, Gale Watch Saturday
The National Weather Service has issued a gale watch for Saturday morning through evening as high pressure pushes the moisture currently over us to the south and then east.
Ironically, this will usher in drier weather for Sunday, but it will make boating dangerous on Saturday. North winds will average 25-35 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Seas will average 9-11 feet.
Peak of Hurricane Season Just Days Away
Earlier this year, experts predicted an extremely active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. But so far, we’ve had only five named storms.
And the peak of hurricane season occurs on September 10 with the most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
Best to bookmark the National Hurricane Center home page and check it daily for the next few weeks. This is the time of year when NHC updates its site every few hours. So, they have the most up-to-date forecasts and they are the acknowledged source of definitive information about tropical systems.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/6/2024
2565 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/two_atl_7d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-09-06 16:46:352024-09-06 18:37:46Chances of Tropical Formation in Gulf Increasing for Next Week
NHC Issues Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6
9/8/24 – At 4 PM, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 (PTC 6). PTC 6 is currently an elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds should reach the Houston area by Tuesday night. And the system should become a hurricane by Wednesday afternoon. (See graphics below.)
Tropical-storm-force winds already extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center.
Wind-Speed Classifications
Tropical cyclones rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. They are classified as follows:
Models suggest the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 should become well defined by tomorrow afternoon. Until then, the track forecast remains very uncertain.
Life-Threatening Storm Surge
According to the NHC, it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts. However, NHC warns that the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines beginning Tuesday night.
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding.
Graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6
CenterPoint Warning
At 2:45 CDT, CenterPoint Energy texted warnings to customers. “We continue to monitor and prepare for a potential tropical system in the Gulf which may impact the Greater Houston area over the next few days.”
The text continued, “We encourage you to prepare an emergency plan. Customers who depend on electricity for life-sustaining equipment are encouraged to make alternate arrangements for on-site backup capabilities or other alternatives in the event of loss of electric service. For safety tips, visit CenterPointEnergy.com/StormCenter.”
After Beryl, I purchased power system that can be charged by solar panels. I’m feeling pretty good about that purchase now.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/8/24 based on information from NHC
2567 Days since Hurricane Harvey
How NOT to Reduce Flooding: Deferring Maintenance
9/7/24 – For seven years, I have focused on ways to reduce flooding. But today, I’d like to discuss a big way not to reduce flooding – by deferring maintenance.
Deferring Maintenance: A Bad Idea
One of the most common root causes of flooding that I see is delayed, deferred, overlooked and/or ignored maintenance. You wouldn’t buy a new car and not maintain it. It’s the same way with flood control. But that’s what we’ve been doing.
If you build a channel or a ditch, you should budget routine inspections, and periodic repairs and maintenance.
For a dramatic example, see the two photos below. As I was driving south on Loop 494 this afternoon, I saw a scene near East Memorial Drive that reminded me of a preventable flooding disaster in Porter back in 2018.
TxDOT improved the ditch that caused the flooding above. But guess what? The blockage is back. I took the picture below this afternoon.
Mike Eberle, a business owner nearby who flooded back in 2018, dubbed this area the Porter Dam. Oops. Back where we started.
The ditch has silted in. And vegetation is growing up through the grate. Meanwhile, debris washed down the ditch and has blocked it even more. It’s only a matter of time before flooding recurs.
And just when we have a potential tropical storm brewing in the gulf. The National Hurricane Center gives it an 80% chance of formation within the next five days.
Will clearing the Porter Dam be high on TxDOT’s to-do list in the next five days? Probably not. Even though the rain predicted could exceed the amount that caused the flooding above.
Deferred Maintenance: A Problem Everywhere
Deferred maintenance is a huge problem everywhere, not just in Montgomery County or on TxDOT roads. And it’s not just vegetation management.
Erosion, when ignored, can run wild and threaten homes. In the case below, it was neglected so long that trees fell into the ditch and blocked it, backing water up.
And wherever sediment accumulates, it can cause ditches to lose much of their ability to convey stormwater. Bens Branch, for instance, was down to a “2-year level-of-service” in places. That means, water would come out of the banks after a two-year rain. See the first picture below.
However, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) initiated a clean-out effort to restore the conveyance of Ben’s Branch from Northpark Drive to Kings Harbor. In this section alone, HCFCD removed more than 10,000 cubic yards of accumulated sediment.
Plea for Tax Increase to Improve Maintenance
In Harris County, HCFCD created this presentation on deferred maintenance for Commissioners Court consideration on 8/15/24. It makes the case for a potential tax increase which voters will be asked to approve on November 5.
Key points:
Flood control is asking for an additional $110 million for its maintenance budget to help remedy these problems. Any increase in tax revenue would go to the HCFCD’s dedicated maintenance account. Those funds are marked specifically for maintenance efforts and support services, according to Emily Woodell, a department spokesperson.
Fool Me Twice?
I can support the HCFCD request. But before I vote for it, I want to see language in the proposal that guarantees it won’t all be spent somewhere else. I’d also like to see language that revokes the tax increase if it is. Or if:
We’ve been burned by certain commissioners who flagrantly renege on promises made in Commissioners Court. I won’t let that happen again. As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
I intend to read this proposition very, very closely. And when I step into the voting booth, I won’t be hoping for the best. I’ll be fearing how I’ll get screwed again, exactly like we did with the 2018 and 2022 Bonds.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/24
2566 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Chances of Tropical Formation in Gulf Increasing for Next Week
9/6/24 – Between yesterday and today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico for next week. Yesterday, NHC gave that orange area a 10% chance of development in the next seven days. Earlier this afternoon, they updated that to 40%. And by this evening, they upgraded it again to 50%.
Also, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a gale watch for offshore waters tomorrow. And NWS predicts another 4-10 inches of rain for the Houston area next week.
Tropical Activity Heating Up
According to the National Hurricane Center, “A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.”
Here’s what those two areas currently look like on a satellite photo.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea and the surface low over the NW Gulf will merge over the western Gulf going into early next week. As high pressure over the plains moves eastward the steering flow will turn to the south and begin to lift whatever is in the western Gulf northward toward the TX coast.”
Another 4-10 Inches of Rain Predicted for Next Week
Lindner predicts increasing moisture late Monday with a much more significant surge of moisture coming into the area starting on Tuesday. Regardless of tropical formation, rains will spread northward from the Gulf into the Houston area. Heavy rainfall looks possible into the middle of next week.
The National Weather Service predicts accumulations in the next seven days could range from 4-10 inches in the Houston region. The larger accumulations will be near the coast. Rainfall totals offshore could range up to 20 inches!
We’ve already achieved our average rainfall for the year. Yet we have almost 4 months yet to go.
High Winds, Gale Watch Saturday
The National Weather Service has issued a gale watch for Saturday morning through evening as high pressure pushes the moisture currently over us to the south and then east.
Ironically, this will usher in drier weather for Sunday, but it will make boating dangerous on Saturday. North winds will average 25-35 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Seas will average 9-11 feet.
Peak of Hurricane Season Just Days Away
Earlier this year, experts predicted an extremely active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. But so far, we’ve had only five named storms.
That puts us three behind the average for the last 30 years. Usually, we get the eighth named storm of the season by September 9th.
And the peak of hurricane season occurs on September 10 with the most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
Best to bookmark the National Hurricane Center home page and check it daily for the next few weeks. This is the time of year when NHC updates its site every few hours. So, they have the most up-to-date forecasts and they are the acknowledged source of definitive information about tropical systems.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/6/2024
2565 Days since Hurricane Harvey