10/8/24 4 PM – As if the pictures of Helene’s aftermath weren’t enough, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
Milton weakened to a Category 4 overnight during an eye wall replacement cycle and is now regaining strength as it expands into a larger storm. At 4 PM, it had a 10-mile-wide eye and was turning northeast, moving at 9 MPH.
NHC also reported that Milton regained Cat 5 strength and had sustained winds of 165 MPH.
Milton was north of the Yucatan at 3PM CDT.
Typically, Cat 5 storms destroy a high percentage of framed homes, with total roof failure and wall collapse. NHC warns that “fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will likely last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
Ironically, much of the area that Milton will hit was already heavily damaged by Helene two weeks ago. Cleanup from Helene is not yet complete. The high winds could create a blizzard of debris and airborne projectiles.
Authorities are urging residents in evacuation zones to get out today as there may not be enough time if they wait until tomorrow.
Highly Populated Area in Crosshairs
The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast track currently puts the Tampa Bay Area in the crosshairs with landfall tomorrow.
However, NHC cautions that, this far in advance, their forecasts typically contain 60-70 miles of error.
The outer winds could reach the Florida coast tomorrow. And the hurricane should make landfall early Thursday, crossing the Florida Peninsula, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday.
NHC says that preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. By tomorrow, conditions will deteriorate and it may not be safe to work outside.
Wind Field, Storm Surge Will Affect Much of Florida
NHC also says that “Milton’s wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.”
At 1 PM, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 140 miles.
Storm surge in the Tampa area could reach 15 feet above dry ground. Surge warnings affect the entire western coast of Florida, the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas. Note below that NHC has also posted surge warnings for most of Florida’s eastern coast up through Georgia and South Carolina.
Heavy Rains and Flooding
NHC predicts 5 to 12 inches of rainfall, with localized totals up to 18 inches, across central to northern Florida through Thursday.
This rainfall will bring the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding, according to NHC.
2597 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 13 since Helene
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/152937_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-1-1.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-10-08 16:23:382024-10-08 16:25:40Milton Could Be One of Most Destructive Hurricanes On Record
10/7/24, 1 PM Update – Since posting the story below at 10 AM, Milton intensified explosively another 20 MPH and is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 MPH sustained winds and higher gusts.So, I have updated some of the statistics in the post.
Overnight, Hurricane Milton morphed from a Category 1 storm to near Category 5. This morning, Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Milton’s maximum sustained winds have already increased to 155 MPH…with higher gusts.
Miltons Position at 11:36 CDT
Category 5 Storm at 1 PM Update
155 MPH made Milton a high-end Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – just 2 MPH below the Category 5 designation. But then it exploded.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Milton is now a Category 5 hurricane. And it has nothing but light shear and very warm waters between it and the Florida coast.
According to NHC, in a Category 5 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
If Milton were a tornado, its 175 MPH winds would make it an F3 on the Fujita scale, capable of blowing apart well constructed houses, overturning trains and uprooting forests. In contrast, Hurricane Helene was a Cat 4 storm with 140 MPH.
Current Conditions and Forecast
Milton should also become a much larger hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico once it completes an eyeball replacement cycle.
At this hour, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb.
As Milton nears the Florida coast, it should weaken some as it encounters drier air and wind shear. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland.
Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph MPH. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight. Then it should turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On that track, Milton will move near the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.
The northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will likely experience life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves today. The same threats should reach Florida late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
Threats
STORM SURGE:
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…8-12 ft
Tampa Bay…8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor…5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location. There, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphics available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night.
This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.
SURF:
Swells generated by the system are expected to continue to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Meanwhile…Advancing Drought Back in Texas
After an abnormally wet spring and summer, we’ve had very little rain since Labor Day. As a result, the U.S. Drought Monitor now classifies the Houston area as Abnormally Dry.
Milton will miss Texas. But Texas sure could use some of its rain. When it comes to rainfall, sometimes Texas feels like “beast or famine.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/7/24 at 11:30 AM
2596 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Milton.jpg?fit=1000%2C740&ssl=17401000adminadmin2024-10-07 11:52:232024-10-07 15:25:30Milton Already a Category 5
10/6/24 at 5PM – Yesterday morning, Milton wasn’t even a tropical depression. This morning, Milton was a tropical storm packing winds of about 60 MPH. By noon, Milton became a hurricane. By the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update, winds were at 85 MPH with higher gusts and “rapidly intensifying.”
NHC predicts Milton will become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher with minimum sustained winds of 111 MPH) on Monday. That’s because it will track through warm, deep water in an area with low wind shear.
Current Conditions
At the 4PM update, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 80 miles. Estimated central pressure was 983 mb.
Milton was tracking toward the east at 7 MPH on a track to strike the center of Florida’s west coast. It does not pose a threat to Texas. However, the Associated Press reports that some communities on Florida’s west coast are already ordering mandatory evacuations.
Forecast to Become Cat 4 or 5
According to NHC, some models are predicting Milton could become a Cat 4 (130 to 156 MPH) or Cat 5 (157 MPH or higher) in a day or two. NHC admits its estimates “still could be too low.”
Large and “Life Threatening”
NHC also predicts Milton will be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area – a scenario similar to Helene just days ago.
“There is increasing confidence,” they say, “that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of Florida’s west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials.”
Tropical storm force winds should arrive in Florida by Tuesday evening.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, business or travel plans in Florida, understand that:
Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. It’s still too early to predict the exact track and intensity.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday. Storm-Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
Heavy rainfall will impact Florida through Monday well ahead of Milton. More heavy rainfall directly related to Milton will hit Florida Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding. It will also have the potential for moderate to MAJOR river flooding.
STORM SURGE: Water will rise as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as the storm tracks east. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two. They will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.
Milton will make the third major hurricane in two weeks. It was only 12 days ago that Helene raked the west coast of Florida. Reportedly, many people in affected areas have not even returned home yet.
Sufficiency of Wind-Scale as Predictor of Damage
The New York Times ran an interesting article this morning titled “The Problem with the Hurricane Category Rating.” The thrust of it was that the rating system looks only at wind, but most of the damage is done by water. And NHC says 55% of all deaths are due to flooding during and after a hurricane.
The article quotes a number of government officials, professionals and academics working on ways to fill the gaps.
That will be the subject of a future post.
In the meantime, your best bet is to bookmark the NHC site and visit it daily during hurricane season. When a hurricane threatens the mainland, NHC updates information every few hours.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/24
2595 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 12 days since Helene
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/212936_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-10-06 17:48:492024-10-06 23:16:21Milton Now a Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane, NHC Says It May Go To Cat 5
Milton Could Be One of Most Destructive Hurricanes On Record
10/8/24 4 PM – As if the pictures of Helene’s aftermath weren’t enough, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
Milton weakened to a Category 4 overnight during an eye wall replacement cycle and is now regaining strength as it expands into a larger storm. At 4 PM, it had a 10-mile-wide eye and was turning northeast, moving at 9 MPH.
NHC also reported that Milton regained Cat 5 strength and had sustained winds of 165 MPH.
Typically, Cat 5 storms destroy a high percentage of framed homes, with total roof failure and wall collapse. NHC warns that “fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will likely last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
Ironically, much of the area that Milton will hit was already heavily damaged by Helene two weeks ago. Cleanup from Helene is not yet complete. The high winds could create a blizzard of debris and airborne projectiles.
Authorities are urging residents in evacuation zones to get out today as there may not be enough time if they wait until tomorrow.
Highly Populated Area in Crosshairs
The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast track currently puts the Tampa Bay Area in the crosshairs with landfall tomorrow.
However, NHC cautions that, this far in advance, their forecasts typically contain 60-70 miles of error.
The outer winds could reach the Florida coast tomorrow. And the hurricane should make landfall early Thursday, crossing the Florida Peninsula, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday.
NHC says that preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. By tomorrow, conditions will deteriorate and it may not be safe to work outside.
Wind Field, Storm Surge Will Affect Much of Florida
NHC also says that “Milton’s wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.”
At 1 PM, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 140 miles.
Storm surge in the Tampa area could reach 15 feet above dry ground. Surge warnings affect the entire western coast of Florida, the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas. Note below that NHC has also posted surge warnings for most of Florida’s eastern coast up through Georgia and South Carolina.
Heavy Rains and Flooding
NHC predicts 5 to 12 inches of rainfall, with localized totals up to 18 inches, across central to northern Florida through Thursday.
This rainfall will bring the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding, according to NHC.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 3:30 PM, 10/8/24
2597 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 13 since Helene
Milton Already a Category 5
10/7/24, 1 PM Update – Since posting the story below at 10 AM, Milton intensified explosively another 20 MPH and is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 MPH sustained winds and higher gusts. So, I have updated some of the statistics in the post.
Overnight, Hurricane Milton morphed from a Category 1 storm to near Category 5. This morning, Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Milton’s maximum sustained winds have already increased to 155 MPH…with higher gusts.
Category 5 Storm at 1 PM Update
155 MPH made Milton a high-end Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – just 2 MPH below the Category 5 designation. But then it exploded.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Milton is now a Category 5 hurricane. And it has nothing but light shear and very warm waters between it and the Florida coast.
According to NHC, in a Category 5 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
If Milton were a tornado, its 175 MPH winds would make it an F3 on the Fujita scale, capable of blowing apart well constructed houses, overturning trains and uprooting forests. In contrast, Hurricane Helene was a Cat 4 storm with 140 MPH.
Current Conditions and Forecast
Milton should also become a much larger hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico once it completes an eyeball replacement cycle.
At this hour, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb.
As Milton nears the Florida coast, it should weaken some as it encounters drier air and wind shear. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland.
Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph MPH. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight. Then it should turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On that track, Milton will move near the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.
The northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will likely experience life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves today. The same threats should reach Florida late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
Threats
STORM SURGE:
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location. There, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphics available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
For an easy way to find the elevation of your home or business, see https://reduceflooding.com/2020/08/01/easy-way-to-find-the-elevation-of-a-home-and-the-slopes-around-it/.
RAINFALL:
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night.
This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and Flash Flood Risk
graphics at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND:
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning
tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.
SURF:
Swells generated by the system are expected to continue to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Meanwhile…Advancing Drought Back in Texas
After an abnormally wet spring and summer, we’ve had very little rain since Labor Day. As a result, the U.S. Drought Monitor now classifies the Houston area as Abnormally Dry.
Milton will miss Texas. But Texas sure could use some of its rain. When it comes to rainfall, sometimes Texas feels like “beast or famine.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/7/24 at 11:30 AM
2596 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Milton Now a Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane, NHC Says It May Go To Cat 5
10/6/24 at 5PM – Yesterday morning, Milton wasn’t even a tropical depression. This morning, Milton was a tropical storm packing winds of about 60 MPH. By noon, Milton became a hurricane. By the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update, winds were at 85 MPH with higher gusts and “rapidly intensifying.”
NHC predicts Milton will become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher with minimum sustained winds of 111 MPH) on Monday. That’s because it will track through warm, deep water in an area with low wind shear.
Current Conditions
At the 4PM update, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 80 miles. Estimated central pressure was 983 mb.
Milton was tracking toward the east at 7 MPH on a track to strike the center of Florida’s west coast. It does not pose a threat to Texas. However, the Associated Press reports that some communities on Florida’s west coast are already ordering mandatory evacuations.
Forecast to Become Cat 4 or 5
According to NHC, some models are predicting Milton could become a Cat 4 (130 to 156 MPH) or Cat 5 (157 MPH or higher) in a day or two. NHC admits its estimates “still could be too low.”
Large and “Life Threatening”
NHC also predicts Milton will be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area – a scenario similar to Helene just days ago.
“There is increasing confidence,” they say, “that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of Florida’s west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials.”
Tropical storm force winds should arrive in Florida by Tuesday evening.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, business or travel plans in Florida, understand that:
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
Other Hazards
NHC also warns of:
Milton will make the third major hurricane in two weeks. It was only 12 days ago that Helene raked the west coast of Florida. Reportedly, many people in affected areas have not even returned home yet.
Sufficiency of Wind-Scale as Predictor of Damage
The New York Times ran an interesting article this morning titled “The Problem with the Hurricane Category Rating.” The thrust of it was that the rating system looks only at wind, but most of the damage is done by water. And NHC says 55% of all deaths are due to flooding during and after a hurricane.
The article quotes a number of government officials, professionals and academics working on ways to fill the gaps.
That will be the subject of a future post.
In the meantime, your best bet is to bookmark the NHC site and visit it daily during hurricane season. When a hurricane threatens the mainland, NHC updates information every few hours.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/24
2595 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 12 days since Helene