Tropical Storm Chances Increasing

6/16/2026 – As of 9 AM EDT today, the National Hurricane Center had increased the chances of tropical storm formation in the Gulf to 60%, up from 10% late last week. Forecasters also say it could go higher today.

Infrared satellite images show a wide band of deep tropical moisture building parallel to the coast.

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, while the chances of tropical storm formation are increasing, if one does form it will likely be weak and short lived.

However, the potential for very heavy rainfall and flash flooding remains. The National Weather Service predicts a moderate risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding today and Wednesday.  

Guidance for the track of of any tropical storm that may develop remains uncertain due to the weak and broad structure of the system.

Today

Models predict thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall near the coast and spread inland through the midday hours. How far inland remains in question, but areas south of I-10 look to have the best chances for heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the morning hours. Activity will likely decrease into the mid to late afternoon hours similar to yesterday.

Wednesday-Thursday

According to Lindner, if a tropical system evolves, it will likely form between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay. Then it will move ENE/NE either across the area or offshore parallel to the coast. Uncertainty remains high as to the exact track. A track near the coast or just offshore would focus the heavier rainfall south of I-10 on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, a track further inland would bring the threat for heavy rainfall into at least the I-10 corridor.

Rainfall Predictions 

Lindner forecasts widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches along and south of I-10 with isolated totals of 6-10 inches through early Wednesday.

Hourly rainfall rates of 2-5 inches will remain likely with the heavier storms. He believes this will lead to rapid onset flash flooding.

North of I-10 rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are most likely through today. However, grounds are saturated and any rainfall will convert to runoff quickly. .

River and Stream Forecast

Recent rains have caused rises on rivers. Lindner says that additional rainfall during the next 48 hours will potentially bring some watersheds to flood stage by late week. Creeks and bayous across Harris County are doing well this morning, but intense rainfall rates could result in significant and rapid rises.

Lake Houston is at 42.6 feet and releasing water at maximum capacity at this moment.

Lake Conroe is still at 201.06 feet and NOT releasing any water.

Tides

Vacationers should watch coastal tides. They will increase today into Wednesday as the tropical system moves into the Houston area. Current forecasts keep water levels 1-2 feet above normal (3-4 feet above barnacle level). Minor coastal flooding remains possible during high tide into Wednesday.

Winds

Winds will increase across the coastal waters and coastal counties today into Wednesday. Expect widespread 20-30 mph and gusts to 40 mph as seas build. Marine conditions will become hazardous as the coastal tropical system moves across the region.

Get ready.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/16/2026

3213 Days since Harvey