Tuesday AM Invest 92L Update: Chances of Tropical Formation Keep Increasing

The chances of Invest 92L becoming a named tropical storm have increased to 50% in the two-day forecast and 80% in the five-day forecast, according to the National Hurricane Center. That’s the bad news. The good news for the Houston area: most models now predict the storm will make landfall in Louisiana.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist caps predicted rainfall totals at 1 to 3 inches for now, but with the understanding that totals could go significantly higher.

Invest in this context means “area of investigation.” A weather system receives this designation when forecasters start to track something serious more closely.

Uncertainty Remains High at This Time

Because the center of this storm is still over land at the moment, it’s hard to predict. Models diverge widely. Those that take the storm further south into the Gulf result in stronger winds and higher rainfall totals because the storm will remain over water longer.

However, some models predict the storm will remain closer to shore as it tracks westward through the Gulf. Those models suggest lower winds and less rainfall. The current radius of circulation of the storm is 150 nautical miles. (One nautical mile = 1.15078 miles.)

Net: forecasts are all over the map at the moment. Uncertainty remains high.

Suggested Actions

Your best bet is to:

  • Monitor forecasts twice a day
  • Check and stock hurricane kits and have plans ready to be enacted this week
  • Be ready to enact plans by the middle to end of this week
  • Follow trusted weather sources for information (National Hurricane Center, Houston/Galveston National Weather Service, West Gulf River Forecast Center and local government) for any recommendations

Graphical Predictions

From Mikes Weather Page as of Monday evening.
Numbers on each track indicate hours from 6 UTC, Tuesday morning. If the red model is correct, the storm would hit the Texas/Louisiana border by 6am Saturday morning.

Where to Find Most Current Information 24/7


National Hurricane Center

NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration)

National Weather Service

Harris County Flood Warning System

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

USGS Water on the Go App

San Jacinto River Authority

Coastal Water Authority


Mikes Weather Page

Weather Nerds

Good luck!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/9/2019

679 Days since Hurricane Harvey