Invest 92L Now Offshore; First Hints of Circulation

Chances of Formation Increase to 70% in 2-Day Outlook

As of 2PM EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) again increased the chances of Invest 92L turning into a tropical storm. This morning, the two-day outlook said 50%. Now it’s 70%. The 5-day outlook remains at 80%. The animated GIF below shows the first hints of circulation. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to fly into the storm tomorrow if necessary.

*Since this morning, the chances of Invest 92L turning into a tropical storm have increased from 50% to 70% in the two-day outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center.*

*Five-hour loop showing first hints of circulation offshore Florida Panhandle.*

Center Now in Northeastern Gulf

According to the NHC, a broad low-pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development over the next several days, and…

… a tropical depression is likely to form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Heavy Rainfall Potential, But More to East

This disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast. Continue to monitor the storm at least twice a day.

*Uncertainty still high; track uncertain, though all models now suggest landfall east of Houston.*

The satellite image below shows infrared imagery. Note how the moisture has built up in the eastern Gulf in the last three hours. It now occupies an area from south Louisiana to south Florida.