Tag Archive for: Lake Conroe

Details of Proposed Lake Houston-Lake Conroe Reservoir Joint Operations Grant

On June 15, the SJRA submitted an abridged application to the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB). The SJRA wants to develop a joint operations plan for Lake Houston and Lake Conroe reservoirs. The grant assumes that FEMA approves construction of additional gates for Lake Houston after completion of preliminary engineering in the second half of next year. The addition of gates could potentially make a pre-release strategy for Lake Houston more viable and that could be a game changer for operations of both dams.

If the floodgates on the Lake Houston spillway are upgraded to discharge as much water as Lake Conroe’s, there will be a definite need to rethink how these two dissimilar dams can work together.

About the TWDB Application Process

The TWDB website explains the application process and eligibility requirements for grants from the Flood Infrastructure Fund. State Senator Brandon Creighton’s SB7 made the Flood Infrastructure Fund possible in 2019.

The Flood Infrastructure Fund applications are a two-step process: Abridged Applications provide the TWDB with information needed to prioritize projects. Applicants whose projects rank within the program’s available capacity are invited to submit full financial-assistance applications at a later date. Those provide more detailed financial, legal, engineering, and other information. Once the full review process is complete, the TWDB will consider project funding.

The two stage process ensures:

  • Projects meet criteria before applicants invest the vast majority of their time and effort
  • TWDB has enough money to fund the most worthy projects

It’s much like getting a commitment letter from a bank before you fill out a full mortgage application.

Why Joint Operations Plan Needed

Widespread flooding in the Lake Houston Area during Hurricane Harvey underscored the need for a joint operations plan with Lake Conroe. Many downstream residents reported they thought the flood threat had passed. Then the SJRA opened its flood gates and started releasing up to 79,000 cubic feet per second. By itself, that would have been the 9th largest flood in West Fork history.

Those who flooded question the timing and volume of the release, and whether a pre-release strategy could have reduced downstream damage.

Once additional gates are in place at Lake Houston, says the SJRA in its application, a joint operations plan will benefit both water supply and flood mitigation.

Objective of Plan

The main goal of the plan is to determine:

  • The most efficient and safe operation of the two reservoirs…
  • … in series …
  • … by evaluating multiple individual components of operational strategy.

Components of Joint Plan

Informing Future Protocol for Lake Houston Gates

SJRA suggests that information and strategies developed as part of this effort could impact the development of CWA’s operating protocol for the future Lake Houston gates.

Joint Notification Protocol Development

The river authority also says that it is important that both reservoir operators develop joint notification protocols and public communication strategies. These must be consistent with the requirements of House Bill 26 passed during the 86th Texas Legislative Session. During Harvey, many downstream residents claim they received no warning of the SJRA release or the need to evacuate.

Forecasting Tools

Another major part of the grant covers forecasting tools. SJRA is currently developing a reservoir forecasting tool for Lake Conroe, funded partially via a grant from TWDB. It will predict lake levels and release rates from the Lake Conroe dam based on:

  • Weather forecasts
  • Observed rainfall
  • Lake levels
  • Other data.

A similar tool for Lake Houston could help synchronize forecasting for both reservoirs including the entire Lake Houston watershed (approximately 3,000 square miles). This could provide scientific data that governs pre-release at either reservoir and operations at Lake Houston.

Average Monthly Household Income in Project Scoring

Much of the application discusses demographics of the watershed. The TWDB scoring process gives preference to rural and low-to-moderate income areas. References to AMHI refer to Average Monthly Household Income. Unfortunately (for grant purposes), the AMHI for this watershed is 164% of the state average.

That limits the maximum amount of a grant to 50% of the project cost. A social vulnerability index also acts as a tie breaker.

Next Steps in Application Process

  • The TWDB is currently screening and prioritizing abridged applications for projects.
  • Before the end of the summer, TWDB will invite extended applications for the high priority projects.
  • Extended applications are due this Fall.
  • TWDB will begin making financial commitments this winter.

For the full text of the abridged grant application, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/7/2020

1043 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Operational Statistics from Lake Conroe Dam During Harvey Raise Troubling Questions

Two affidavits in a lawsuit filed against the SJRA for flooding downstream residents during Harvey contain statistics that raise several troubling questions about the operation of gates during the storm.

  • Did the SJRA wait too long to begin releasing water in significant volumes?
  • As a consequence, did it create an unnecessarily high peak discharge?
  • Did it maintain high discharge rates longer than it needed?
  • As lake levels declined, why did the SJRA continue releasing 2X to 10X more water than it was taking on when it had up to 3 feet of storage capacity in the Lake Conroe?
  • Why did it never let the level of Lake Conroe reach its flowage easement max?
  • Could different procedures have reduced downstream flooding?
Part of one page of seven pages of gate operation statistics in affidavits.

Affidavits of Gilman and Olmos Contain Insights

The first affidavit comes from Chuck Gilman, the SJRA’s Director of Flood Management. It contains a gold mine of statistics. Tables at the end of the affidavit show the date, time, average lake level, total inflow, and total discharge (cubic feet per second), and the exact time of gate changes. The statistics start August 26, 2017 at 10 p.m. They end three days later at the same time. The seven pages of statistics capture a snapshot of the storm and the SJRA’s response hour by hour during Harvey. At the peak, the SJRA recorded changes every 15 minutes.

The second affidavit comes from Hector Olmos, a Principal and Vice President of consulting firm Freese and Nichols, Inc. Olmos helped develop the gate operations policy for at Lake Conroe for the SJRA. The Olmos affidavit contains the same statistical information in Gilman’s. However, it also contains more details of the Gate Operations Policy in place at the time of Harvey. And the two affidavits assert different facts.

Download Gilman Affidavit

Download Olmos Affidavit

Inflow Vs. Outflow and Flowage Easement Max

In the summary that follows, outflow vs. inflow rates are significant. Gilman swore in his affidavit that the gate operation “…policy is programmed so that even in the most extreme situations, peak outflow will never exceed 70% of inflow.” “Peak” is the key word there. Olmos swore in his affidavit that 80% was the limit. However, statistics show that it never significantly exceeded 60%.

As you review the following, keep in mind another key point. SJRA had the ability and authority to increase the lake level to 207, but stopped short at 206.23 for some reason that the affidavits don’t explain.

Summary of Key Statistics and Actions

Key statistics show that:

  • Lake Conroe started to rise at 11:30 p.m. on August 26, 2017 in response to 1,722 cfs flowing into the lake.
  • After the lake level reached 201.04 feet at 12:15 a.m. on August 27, SJRA first opened its gates at 12:25 a.m. and started releasing 529 cfs.
  • After that, inflow generally increased for the next 24.5 hours, though the increases were not a straight line. Inflow fluctuated up and down, likely in response to feeder bands passing over the watershed or variations in readings due to wave and wind action.
  • More than 24 hours after the start of the storm, at 1 a.m. on August 28, inflow peaked at 129,065 cfs. By then, the lake level had reached 205.65 feet and the SJRA was releasing 62,082 cfs, less than half of the inflow.
  • From that point on, the inflow generally declined, but not in a straight line.
  • The water level in Lake Conroe peaked six hours later at 7 a.m., August 28, at 206.23 feet. That’s roughly three-quarters of a foot BELOW the SJRA’s flowage easement.
  • After that, water continued to go down for the duration of the storm, but the SJRA continued increasing its release rate for five more hours, until 12 noon on the 28th. The water level was 206.17 feet, almost a foot below its flowage easement. Inflow was 63,986 cfs (less than half the peak), yet discharge peaked at 79,141. So the lake level and inflow were going down, but the discharge rate kept increasing when the lake had room to spare.
  • SJRA kept the release rate above 70,000 cfs until 4:15 a.m. the morning of the 29th, more than 16 hours. By then, the lake level had gone down to 204.58. And the discharge rate was still three times higher than the inflow (71,538 cfs discharge vs 20,287 inflow).
  • For the rest of the storm, lake level, inflow rates and discharge rates all continued to decline. The table ends at 10 p.m., August 29th. Lake level equaled 203.44, discharge 22,033, and inflow 6,579.

Turning Points in the Storm

During the entire day of August 27th, outflow fluctuated roughly from 16% to 50% of inflow as the inflow kept building relentlessly.

Outflow exceeded inflow by 8:30 a.m. on the 28th and stayed that way for the duration of the storm even though the lake had up to 3 available feet of storage capacity.

By the morning of the 29th, downstream areas were flooding badly. The SJRA had roughly three feet of extra storage capacity in Lake Conroe within its flowage easement. Yet it kept releasing, on average, 2 – 10X more water than it was taking in. At one point the ratio exceeded 100:1.

Could the SJRA have used more of Lake Conroe’s available storage capacity as lake levels declined to help reduce downstream flooding?

Neither Mr. Gilman’s, nor Mr. Olmos’ affidavits shed light on these issues.

Please Note

Chuck Gilman inherited this problem. The SJRA did not hire him until well after Harvey.

Also note that conditions during an emergency can be chaotic. Keyboard quarterbacking after the fact is much easier.

If the SJRA wishes to respond to this post, I will print its position verbatim.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/11/2020

1017 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

SJRA Resumes Seasonal Release 3 Days Before Scheduled End

For the record, this morning, the SJRA resumed lowering Lake Conroe just three days before the scheduled end of its Spring seasonal release. As of 1PM, the SJRA is releasing 1581 cubic feet per second. Recent rains raised the lake level more than a half foot from the target of 200 feet to 200.53 feet.

Source SJRA.net as of approximately 11 a.m. on May 29, 2020.

SJRA Coordinated with CoH

The lake had risen to approximately 200.4 feet for the last two weeks of May. And, when heavy rains entered the forecast, readers began to ask whether SJRA would lower it to 200 again. However, SJRA did not resume lowering at that time.

Reportedly, the City of Houston was worried about overloading Lake Houston at a time when:

  • Dam repairs were in progress
  • Heavy rainfall was in the forecast

So the SJRA held water back.

What 500 CFS looks like. Photographed 7/31/2018, during a tour of the Lake Conroe Dam. The current release is three times this rate.

According to sources, the Coastal Water Authority has opened its gates on Lake Houston and is coordinating release rates with the SJRA so as not to flood downstream residents.

Exact Text of Spring Lake Lowering Policy

For the record, here is the official SJRA lake lowering policy renewed with some modifications after months of divisive debate. Lake Houston residents wanted the extra buffer against flooding. Lake Conroe residents claimed there was no proof it worked. They also claimed that it was lowering their property values and destroying their tax base.

In the Spring, the policy calls for:

“Beginning April 1, release only an amount of water from Lake Conroe to create a one foot capacity to catch rainfall and storm runoff (from 201’ mean sea level to 200’ msl). Recapture of lake level beginning June 1.”

Average Lake Level By Month for 46 Years

Also note that the lake level rarely reaches 201. The average varies each month depending on rainfall and evaporation. So when Lake Conroe reached 200.53, it exceeded the norm.

Lake Conroe seasonal levels by month. Source: SJRA

We need to watch this closely. In 2.5 days, this release should stop until the SJRA resumes seasonal releases on August 1. Please report any flooding through the contact page on this web site.

Text of Fall Policy

The fall seasonal lowering coincides with the peak of hurricane season. The SJRA Fall seasonal lowering policy states:

Beginning August 1, release only an amount of water from Lake Conroe to create a one foot capacity to catch rainfall and storm runoff (from 201’ msl to 200’ msl). After September 1, increase capacity an additional six inches (from 200’ msl to 199.5’ msl). If a named storm is predicted to impact our region, the COH may initiate an additional release of six inches (to 199’ msl) by notifying SJRA in writing of their call for release. Recapture beginning October 1.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/2020

1004 Days after Hurricane Harvey

SJRA Starts Seasonal Release to Lower Lake Conroe

After the Easter weekend, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) started its seasonal-release plan. The river authority is currently releasing at a rate of 529 cubic feet per second (CFS) from Lake Conroe. At that rate, the lake should reach its target level of 200 feet above sea level by the end of April, according to Jace Houston, general manager of the SJRA.

Seasonal Release from Lake Conroe, 529 cfs from one tainter gate open six inches.
SJRA Seasonal Release on 4/15/2020. One tainter gate open six inches releases a slow, steady stream of 529 cfs. Image courtesy of SJRA.

The slow rate of release avoids flooding downstream property and the lower lake level provides additional capacity in the lake. That additional capacity provides a buffer against flooding for downstream residents.

About Seasonal Lake Lowering Policy

Houston said the River Authority will hold the lake at 200 feet through the end of May, then allow it to reach its normal level for most of the summer.

Lake Conroe actually reached 200.75 feet before SJRA began its seasonal lowering this week. A reduction of .14 feet equates to about one and two-thirds inches of lowering so far.

At 200.75 feet, Lake Conroe was actually above its highest average monthly level for the year, which is 200.44 feet in May. The normal level for April is 200.32 feet.

Lake Conroe seasonal levels by month. From SJRA board presentation by Chuck Gilman in January.

Earlier this year, a bitter fight broke out between upstream and downstream property owners over the seasonal lake lowering policy. The SJRA board decided to extend the lake lowering plan, but modify it. In the fall, they will let the City of Houston, which owns two-thirds of the water in the lake, decide whether to take the lake down below 199.5 feet.

The extra lowering in the fall helps protect against hurricanes and tropical storms, such as Harvey and Imelda. The SJRA begins slowly lowering the lake in August for the peak of hurricane season in September and then letting it resume its normal level again in October. For the exact details of the policy adopted by the board in its February meeting, click here.

Lake Houston Level Declining

Despite the start of the seasonal release and last week’s rains, the level of Lake Houston has declined this week. And rivers are far from flooding.

Normal level for Lake Houston is 42.5 feet, but City is still lowering lake for spillway maintenance.

Uncertain Weather for This Weekend

Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, predicts that storms this weekend could bring several inches of rain. “With the Gulf of Mexico water temperatures running several degrees above average for this time of year, winds blowing off the Gulf will need little time to supply a rich moisture-laden air mass.” 

The NWS predicts a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms for this weekend as a front passes. However, Lindner notes, models diverge widely in their predictions. The Global Forecast System (GFS model) predicts that most rain will happen over the Gulf with little impact to land.

However, the European Medium Range Forecast Model (ECMWF) predicts a very wet weekend with several rounds of storms and several inches of rainfall for much of southeast Texas.

Which Model is Better?

ECMWF is considered one of the premiere global forecasting models for the mid-latitudes. Statistically, it has been more accurate than the GFS model.

NOAA has tripled spending on supercomputing capacity to make GFS the best model in the world again.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/15/2020

960 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Lake Conroe Level Now Exceeds Average for April a Week Early

The rain earlier this week continues to filter into Lake
Conroe and raise the lake level. As of today at 3 p.m. today, the level reached 200.35 msl (mean feet above sea level).

Lake Conroe level as of 3pm on 3/24/2020

That means the lake level now exceeds the average for April – and there’s still a week left in March. With additional rain or inflow, the lake could soon reach its highest point in an average year.

Monthly variation in average levels of Lake Conroe dating back to 1973 when the dam was built.

The highest monthly average happens in May when the lake reaches 200.44 feet. That means the lake is now 0.09 feet (1.08 inches) from its average annual peak in May.

That also means that the SJRA will begin releasing water on April 1 as part of its seasonal lowering plan to reduce flood risk to downstream communities.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/24/2020

938 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Additional Rain Puts Lake Conroe Within 1 inch of April Average

Yesterday, I posted about rains that quickly brought Lake Conroe back up to its average for March. Additional rain last night and today brought the lake up another 3.24 inches to 200.23 as of 9pm on 3/22/2020. That means the lake is now within about 1 inch of its average level for April.

Source SJRA.net. Readings as of 9pm on Sunday, March 22, 2020.
46-year average levels for Lake Conroe. Variation due to rainfall, evaporation and releases. Source: SJRA.net. Chuck Gilman presentation and January 2020 board meeting.

This now means that SJRA would release enough water starting April 1 to reduce the level of the lake to 200 feet above sea level. If the lake remains at this level, that would mean lowering it about 3.24 inches starting April 1.

The purpose of the SJRA’s temporary seasonal lake lowering program: to provide a margin of safety against flooding until downstream mitigation measures can be put in place. Those include West Fork mouth bar dredging and additional floodgates on Lake Houston to lower the level of the lake faster during a flood.

Renewal of the policy was the subject of a bitter fight between Lake Conroe and Lake Houston between December 2019 and February 2020. It culminated in a board meeting attended by approximately 1500 residents from both communities.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/22/2020

936 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Conroe Returns to Average Level for March

Lake Conroe area businesses, boaters, home values and tax rolls got a boost yesterday. Yes, despite the drought, Lake Conroe returned to its normal level for this time of year. The watershed received an average of 2 to 2.5 inches of rain in the last 36 hours. That’s all it took.

The March average for the last 47 years (since the lake was built) is 199.98. The current lake level as of 5pm on 3.21.2020 is 199.96. That virtually equals the March average.

The difference, 0.02 ft., is less than a quarter inch. That’s less that the thickness of a pencil.

36 hour rainfall totals for Lake Conroe area sensors. Source: SJRA.onerain.com.
SJRA Dashboard as of 5pm on 3.21.2020
47 year average for monthly Lake Conroe levels. Source: SJRA

One decent rain Stopped the Drop. If the lake remains at this level, there will be no seasonal lowering in the Spring. The policy adopted by the board calls for lowering it to 200 starting April 1.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/21/2020

935 Days after Hurricane Harvey

SJRA Adopts Modified Lake Lowering Program

In a marathon meeting last night, the SJRA modified the seasonal lowering program for Lake Conroe. The adopted motion does not exactly follow the City of Houston’s last-minute compromise recommendation. It delays lowering the lake to 199.5 feet until after September 1 to accommodate boaters and businesses on Lake Conroe. The City had recommended lowering the lake to that level beginning August 1. The old policy called for lowering the lake all the way to 199 in both months.

Details of Plan

Minutes of the meeting have not yet been approved, but here is the preliminary summary:

Spring lowering:  

Lower to 200’ msl (mean feet above sea level) beginning April 1 through May 31.  Recapture begins June 1.

Fall lowering:
  • Beginning August 1, lower to 200’ msl.
  • Beginning September 1, lower to 199.5’ msl.
Tropical Storm Provision:

If a named storm enters the region, City of Houston may initiate an additional prerelease to 199’ msl by requesting the SJRA to do so in writing. SJRA staff will coordinate with COH staff on the details and timing of the lowering.

Duration of Program

The program will continue through December 2022, giving the City of Houston enough time to add additional gates to Lake Houston and complete West Fork dredging.

1400 Crowd Convention Hall for 5-Hour Meeting

More than 1400 people crammed into the meeting at the Lone Star Convention Center in Conroe. The meeting lasted more than five hours. Some people arrived hours earlier to make sure they got seats.

Estimated crowd of 1400. White shirts from Lake Houston, red from Lake Conroe.

Lake Conroe residents still outnumbered Lake Houston residents by 2 to 1, but it was far better than the 20 to 1 ratio in previous meetings on this topic.

Also present at last night’s meeting were people from between the two lakes in communities such as River Plantation. More than 1100 people between Lake Conroe and Lake Houston flooded during Harvey when the SJRA released 80,000 cubic feet per second.

Flooded Protester at February SJRA Board Meeting

Plea for Civility Starts Meeting

The meeting started with a plea by the chambers of commerce from the two areas for unity and civility. And the meeting was in fact far more civil than previous meetings on this topic. Gone was the bar room atmosphere of jeers, catcalls, name calling, interruptions, and physical threats.

Staff Presentation and Mayor’s Letter Change Debate

Before public comments began, two developments totally changed the debate. Most people expected the SJRA to decide between continuing or scrapping the existing plan. However, the evening before the meeting, Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner sent a letter to the SJRA suggesting a compromise proposal: 200 msl in the spring and 199.5 in the fall. Then Chuck Gilman, SJRA’s Director of Water Resources and Flood Management, kicked off the meeting with an alternate proposal: 200 msl in spring AND fall.

Gilman’s presentation to the board emphasized lowering the lake one foot could have prevented releases in all but three storms in the last twenty years. Gilman’s team correlated the average rise in lake level per inch of rainfall in dozens of events. See graph below.

SJRA data shows that 1-foot of extra lake level (yellow line) would handle all but three storms that occurred in last 20 years. Hurricane Harvey was excluded from graph because it was considered an anomaly.

“A review of historic rainfall data and corresponding lake rise suggests less than 2 feet of storage is adequate to catch most storm events at Lake Conroe that occur in the fall,” said Gilman.

“Only two rainfall events that occurred in the months of August and September since 1999 (excluding 2017) resulted in more than one-foot of rise in Lake Conroe. More than 90% of these events resulted in less than 3 inches of rise in Lake Conroe. Five named tropical storms in this same period resulted in less than 12 inches of rise,” he said.

Many residents in attendance questioned why the SJRA excluded 1994 and Harvey from examination in the chart above. The worst downstream damage occurred during those two events.

Both the City’s proposal and the SJRA’s came as surprises to many people. Instead of choosing between A and B, suddenly C and D became options, too.

Board Settles on Compromise to Mayor’s Compromise Proposal

In the end, the proposal adopted by the SJRA differed from the City’s in one key respect. The level of Lake Conroe remains a half foot higher in August to accommodate boaters during vacation season. SJRA Board President Lloyd Tisdale characterized August revenue as vital to the area’s economy. Tisdale said vacationing falls off significantly after Labor Day.

Board member Kaaren Cambio who represents the Lake Houston area preferred the Mayor’s proposal but acknowledged that the final plan “balances flood mitigation with water supply and recreation. The board heard businesses and delaying the fall release will extend the boating season.”

The approved plan still lets the City of Houston call for lowering to 199 msl if forecasters predict a named tropical storm will enter the region within five days.

The City owns two thirds of the water in the lake. City Council Member Dave Martin said in his remarks before the board voted that “The City could take the lake down to 180 msl if it wanted.”

In the end, it appeared that the Board punted any responsibility for painful reductions and put that onus on the City.

State Emphasizing Need for Cooperation within Watersheds

Much of the board’s debate focused whether to adopt the City’s proposal verbatim. Board President Tisdale’s opening remarks cited the importance of partnership with other entities in the region. Legislation adopted in 2019 places a premium on cooperation within a watershed. The Texas Water Development Board can financially penalize those that don’t cooperate. They now score grant requests based on how well all affected areas work together. “We have to look at this as a regional flooding issue,” said Tisdale.

Upstream/Downstream Split

Both Lake Houston area Board Members, Kaaren Cambio and Mark Micheletti, argued for adopting the City’s plan, but none of the other board members agreed. In the end, they voted to adopt a plan that delayed lowering the Lake to 199.5 until September 1.

Net Effect Vs. Historical Averages

After a debate going back to 2018, we now have a lake-lowering plan that closely mirrors Mother Nature’s. Unless we’re in a very wet or very dry year.

Compared to historical averages, the SJRA will lower Lake Conroe:

  • 4 to 5 inches in April and May
  • 0 inches in August
  • 3 inches in September
Historical monthly lake level averages since Lake Conroe was built. Variation due to evaporation and rainfall rates. Source: SJRA January 2020 Board Presentation by Chuck Gilman.

Of course, that assumes the City does NOT call for greater reductions. Also keep in mind that these are averages, not certainties. If the lake levels are higher or lower than the average in any given year, these reductions would vary.

The primary protection provided by the policy adopted by the SJRA would occur in a very wet year when the lake was full up to 201 msl. Then the reduction would be 12 inches in August and 18 in September.

State Representative Dan Huberty who gave a powerful speech before the board began deliberations, said, “I am proud of our community and how we came together, including the State (Especially Governor Abbott and Chief Nim Kidd), the City, the County, our Chamber and most importantly our citizens.”

Huberty continued, “Thank you for showing up and being respectful but forceful. We worked very hard, and in the end won a vote that achieves our goal of  lake lowering. Special thanks to Mark Micheletti and Kaaren Cambio for having the courage to stand up with and for the recommendation from Mayor Turner and Mayor Pro-Tem Martin.”

The City of Houston provided no comment.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/21/2020

906 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Mayor Turner Proposes New Compromise on Lowering Lake Conroe

Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner and Public Works Director Carol Haddock have sent a compromise proposal to the SJRA board on the eve of the meeting that will decide the fate of their seasonal lake lowering policy.

Details of Original Proposal

The original policy has received heavy pushback from Lake Conroe people who claim its destroying property, schools, recreation and the Montgomery County tax base. It has also sparked vigorous support from Lake Houston Area businesses and residents. They see the extra storage capacity in Lake Conroe as a buffer against flooding until they can finish permanent mitigation projects such as dredging and the construction of additional gates on Lake Houston’s dam.

That original policy implemented in the fall of 2018 called for lowering the lake to 199 feet from 201 during the peak of hurricane season. It also called for lowering the lake to 200 feet in the rainiest months of spring.

Due to dry weather this winter, Lake Conroe never fully recovered its normal pool level. And at this writing, it remains at 199.21 feet.

Details of Proposed Compromise

The new proposal by Mayor Turner calls for continue lowering Lake Conroe to 200 feet during April and May. However, Turner calls for lowering Lake Conroe to 199.5 in the the fall from August 1 through November 1. That’s a wider window but a smaller reduction.

Turner puts two other conditions on the compromise:

  • The policy would remain in place until dredging is complete and the City has install new floodgates on the Lake Houston Dam.
  • In addition, Lake Conroe would be lowered to 199 feet any time a named tropical storm is predicted to impact our region within a 5-day forecast.

Full Text of Letter

The full text of the letter is below.

For a high res PDF suitable for printing, click here.

What This Really Means in Practical Terms

It seems that there is little for Lake Conroe people to argue about here. With the exception of an approaching tropical storm or hurricane, the lake levels would rarely be dropped much below the normal levels due to evaporation. See graph below. In fact, the most lake levels would drop manually beyond historical averages would be .42 feet in August or about 5 inches, unless a tropical system approaches.

Source: SJRA presentation by Chuck Gilman. Lake Conroe was built in 1973, so this data goes back to the beginning.

Turner Has Power to Order Reduction If Lake Conroe People Don’t Compromise

Although he did not explicitly say it, Turner has the power to order the reductions simply by calling for the water. The City of Houston owns two-thirds of the water in Lake Conroe.

The last paragraph in Turner’s letter, the one about collaboration and partnership, may be a veiled reference to that fact. If the SJRA does not cooperate, he may not feel obliged to either. In that case, Lake Conroe residents could find themselves with even lower lake levels.

All in all, it’s an attempt to hold off another bar-room brawl like the SJRA hosted last month.

I’d feel more comfortable with a larger reduction. But I’m sure the Conroe people would like no reduction. Such is the nature of compromise…a lost art in American politics.

All in all, the Mayor’s proposal is a good compromise between drought and flood mitigation. Both are key elements of the SJRA’s mission as defined by the State legislature.

Keep in mind that the figures above show AVERAGES. If a named tropical storm comes into the Gulf and the lake is already at or above 201, it would still be lowered to 199.5. That would be much more than 5 inches. But still, it should not create an abnormal hardship for anyone.

Make Your Voice Heard

Tomorrow is the last chance to make your opinion known about this issue before the crucial vote. For more information, see the Lake Lowering page of this web site.

BOARD OF DIRECTORS SPECIAL MEETING 
  • Thursday, February 20, 2020
  • 6pm at Lone Star Convention and Expo Center
  • 9055 Airport Road, Conroe, Texas 77303
  • Doors open at 5pm.

Those wishing to address the board or register a comment at a special meeting may fill out a Comment Registration Form https://www.sjra.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Comment-Registration-Form_01062020.pdf. Comment Registration Forms may be submitted at the special meeting. The form may not be mailed, emailed, or dropped off prior to the meeting date.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/19/2020

904 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Lake Conroe at 199 Feet: Photos Show Little Impact on Boating, Fishing, Commerce

On January 25th Sharon Mize and her husband, B Ray, drove around Lake Conroe to see the impact of the lower lake levels on boating, fishing and commerce. Even though the water level was still at 199 feet, they saw dozens of boaters; full parking lots at the boat ramps and restaurants; and people getting boats in and out of the water.

On Jan. 25, 2020, SJRA recorded the lake level at slightly more than 199 feet. Screen capture by Sharon Mize.

An Outsider’s View on a Cold and Blustery Day

The Mizes quickly point out that they do not have enough history with Lake Conroe to determine whether what they saw was “normal.” However, they characterized the activity as “healthy,” despite a cold, blustery, overcast January day.

As you look at the photos below, look not only at the activity in the shot, look at the waterlines on piers and docks relative to the water level.

Photo taken from Wolfies restaurant at Lake Conroe Park
House and slip across from Wolfies. Note fisherman at right.
Bulkheading across from Wolfies shows normal and current water lines.
Slips by restaurants at Waterpoint Marina. Note normal water level on posts and smile on woman.
Activity at Waterpoint Marina
Boats tied up at restaurants at Waterpoint Marina. A restaurant owner told me that business was down seasonally, but that it was normal year over year. The owner estimated winter was down 20% compared to the peak in summer during vacation season.
Waterline at Waterpoint Marina
Boat Ramp still usable at La Torretta
Walden Yacht Club. Note normal waterline on pier in foreground.
Fishermen near Walden Yacht Club
Note difference between water level and normal waterline on docks at Walden Yacht Club. The heaviest orange color shows the most common level of the lake. B Ray Mize estimates the lake was down about 12 to 18 inches compared to that.
Boats entering and leaving harbor at Walden Yacht Club
Another waterline on docks at Walden Yacht Club
Shoreline across from Scott’s Ridge Boat Ramp. No excessive exposure of sediment at 199 feet.
Boats by Scott’s Ridge Boat Ramp
Scott’s Ridge Boat Ramp Parking Lot filled with empty boat trailers.
Boat about to land at Scott’s Ridge boat ramp
Paradise Point North Boat Launch

Exception Noted for People at North End of Lake

A Lake Conroe resident told me that the lower level impacted people at the far north end of the lake the most. This stands to reason. Water levels are lowest there. Grand Harbor felt the effect of lowering the most. However, she quickly added that the canals were poorly maintained, silted in, and not dredged deep enough to start with. A video by a Grand Harbor resident posted to YouTube before the SJRA started lowering the lake underscores these points.

201 Feet a Target Level, But Average is Lower

Note that the SJRA targets a level of 201 feet. When the water goes above 201, the SJRA starts releasing water so it rarely goes above that except briefly in major floods. However, the water level frequently drops below 201, due to evaporation combined with low rainfall.

In fact, during the months SJRA intentionally lowers the lake 1-2 feet, the lake level AVERAGES about 199.5. So, Lake Conroe residents would only lose about another half foot.

The 46-year January average for Lake Conroe’s level is 199.54, according to the SJRA. Note also that the average for any month has never exceeded 200.44 since the lake was built.

Source: SJRA presentation by Chuck Gilman before Jan 21 board meeting. See page 23. Lake is currently down less than one-half foot compared to 46-year January average. Note also that the average never reaches more than 200.44 in any month.

SJRA policy calls for not releasing any water when the lake level drops below 200 in the spring or 199 during hurricane season.

Make Your Voice Heard

The SJRA will hold its next board meeting on Feb. 20. Please attend and explain how the SJRA release affected you and why you value the lake lowering policy.

For more background on this controversy, see the Lake Lowering page on this web site.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/6/2020 based photos and input from Sharon and B Ray Mize

891 Days after Hurricane Harvey