Tag Archive for: Harvey

Study Finds Stalling Cyclones Increasing

5/11/25 – A study published in the November 2024 edition of the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology by researchers from Louisiana State University and Texas A&M examined stalling and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones.

After analyzing 1,274 storms going back to 1900, they found one of the primary areas for such storms to strike is along the central Gulf Coast. They also found that, the estimated annual frequency of stalls significantly increased from 1966 – 2020 – by 1.5% year.

Lead author of the study, called Stalling North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, is Jill C. Trepanier of LSU. Others include: John Nielsen-Gammon of Texas A&M; and Vincent Brown, Derek Thompson and Barry Keim, all of LSU.

Stalling Storms More Damaging

The authors found that, “Storms that stall tend to have a longer average duration than those that do not stall in all categories.” By that they mean levels of intensity (Cat 1 through 5).

They say stalling storms increase rainfall rates, storm surge heights and exposure to high winds including tornado activity. “Storms that slow down or stall can increase total damage by prolonging the exposure time to intense conditions,” they say.

Stalling Storms Clustered in Central Gulf, Late in Season

They also found that stalls tend to cluster in certain places. Those include, but are not limited to the central Gulf Coast.

And they happen more often late in the season during September and October.

“Stalls tend to occur in similar places over time and happen more frequently later in the hurricane season (October) when compared to the middle (August). Emergency managers can use this information to identify the likely location and timing for stalls throughout the North Atlantic tropical cyclone season,” say the authors.

Definition of Stalling

The researchers define a stalling cyclone as one that moves less than 200 km in 72 hours. “Potentially most devastating are those stalls within 200 km of the coast, but even more so, those that stall over or partially over land.”

“This is important for emergency managers to realize,” they say, “as those stalling near the coast will have a higher potential to inflict more damage to a population.” And storms that also rapidly intensify also give:

  • Emergency managers less time to evacuate people.
  • Residents less time to prepare.

The researchers also found that Category 3+ storms such as Hurricane Harvey persist longer than weaker tropical cyclones, providing more stall opportunities. Harvey, they say, dumped more rain than any stalling storm in recorded history. They examined the historical record going back to 1899.

Harvey track
Harvey track in 2017. Notice how dots get closer together as storm stalled over Texas. Each dot represents 6 hours.

Rapidly Intensifying Storms Also Becoming More Frequent

The authors of the “stalling” study also reviewed other studies such as Kaplan et al. (2015) and Benedetto and Trepanier (2020).

These studies suggest that rapidly intensifying storms have become more frequent and are occurring closer to the coast in recent years. Rapidly intensifying storms make evacuations more difficult. More people must move in less time and with less warning.

Coastal Areas More Densely Populated

According to NOAA, coastal areas are notably more densely populated than inland regions. For instance, coastal shoreline counties have a population density more than five times greater than the U.S. average.

Approximately 39% of the U.S. population lives in coastal shoreline counties, which comprise less than 10% of the nation’s land area (excluding Alaska).

Additional Research

Before concluding, the authors called for more research on the rainfall recurrence intervals associated with stalling cyclones. They also say future analysis should include a deeper dive on rapid intensification.

Individuals Should Research Preparation

In the meantime, the best thing people living in coastal areas can do is prepare. Forecasters predict an above-average hurricane season, which starts in about two weeks. The National Hurricane Center has produced an excellent series of videos to help you protect your family and property.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/11/25

2812 Days since Hurricane Harvey

 

How May 2024 Flood Compared to Harvey

Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) briefed the County’s Community Resilience Flood Task Force on how the extent of the May 2024 flood compared to Hurricane Harvey. In places, inundation matched Harvey. And in others it came close or fell short.

See the inundation map below. In my opinion, it dramatizes three things:

  • Serious flooding can happen any month of the year in the Houston region.
  • Flooding can happen anywhere that rain falls.
  • Flood-mitigation measures make a huge difference.
Inundation map from HCFCD comparing Harvey with May 2024 floods and evacuation zones.

Anytime

As the map above shows, major rain can fall outside of a hurricane season. In fact, May is usually the third wettest month of the year in Houston, exceeded only by June and October.

Of seven major storms to strike this area since 2016, four have happened outside of hurricane season.

Anywhere

The worst rainfall in the early May floods happened at the very top of the San Jacinto river basin in the upper portions of the East and West Forks. Parts of those watersheds received almost 20 inches of rain.

In Huntsville, Harvey dumped only 2 more inches of rain than a training band of thunderstorms in May 2024. The map above shows the results.

Cypress, Spring and Lake Creeks, which originate on the west side, received roughly a quarter to a third of the rain that fell to the north during early May.

Rainfall totals for 8 days before May 6, 2024. Compare 18.4 at top of map to smaller totals farther south. From Harris County Flood Warning System.

However, during Harvey, the rainfall distribution was the opposite of the map above. Huntsville received about 17 inches while areas to the south received more than 40.

Flood-Mitigation Measures

The inundation map above shows the importance of another location-related variable: upstream stormwater detention. Note how much more blue you see on the West Fork than on the East Fork which is predominantly green. The West Fork has a dam at Lake Conroe which partially blocked the heaviest flows. The East Fork has no dams.

But the East Fork and Luce Bayou do have the sprawling Colony Ridge Development. And Colony Ridge, especially the first 12,000 acres, has only a minuscule amount of stormwater detention. The development is now 50% larger than Manhattan.

Development usually increases the speed and volume of runoff. Developers normally use detention basins to limit post-development runoff to pre-development rates, so that they don’t increase flooding.

But for the most part, that didn’t happen in Colony Ridge. And that contributed to flooding downstream.

The inundation map above should be a wakeup call. Of 16 major flood-mitigation projects identified in the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Study, not one has even gotten to the drawing boards, much less off them – after four years.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/3/24

2500 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Beryl Goes from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 in One Day

6/30/24, 4 PM – Beryl intensified from a tropical storm yesterday morning to a category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds this afternoon.

Satellite image taken at 3:30 CDT

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. NHC predicts it will become a tropical storm by tonight and make landfall near where Alberto did in Mexico less than two weeks ago.

4PM Update on Beryl

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that the hurricane continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. Beryl has made only a minor shift to the north since this morning, following the trend in the latest models.

Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when the hurricane passes over portions of the Windward Islands. At highest risk: St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning.

Latest cone of uncertainty for Beryl as of 3PM CDT, 6/30/24

As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should weaken it slightly. However, NHC predicts that Beryl will remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region.

So far, the storm’s path has been eerily reminiscent of Harvey’s.

From Wikipedia

Here are the latest track forecasts of various models for today’s storm.

Some models take the path toward Houston, but the consensus seems a bit west.

Sea Surface Temps in Gulf

If Beryl makes it to the Gulf, it will encounter favorable sea surface temps.

Sea Surface Temperature departures from normal. 2 degrees Celsius = 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

It is too early to predict atmospheric conditions in the Gulf next weekend.

Record-Breaking Beryl

As it spins across the Atlantic, Beryl has already set two records:

  • Farthest east a hurricane has ever formed in the Atlantic in June
  • Earliest Cat 4 Hurricane on record.

Before this storm, the record earliest Category 4 hurricane was Dennis on July 8, 2005.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 4PM CDT on 6/30/24

2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Top of SJR Basin Has Received Normal YTD Rainfall Plus a Harvey or Two

6/4/24 – Rainfall in the upper part of the San Jacinto River (SJR) Basin during early May storms rivaled Hurricane Harvey totals there. And if you consider year-to-date rainfall (YTD) totals, the amount above normal equals two Harveys in places!

The comparisons with Harvey help put into perspective some extraordinary rainfall in a relatively small geographic area that affects a much larger area.

The comparisons help explain why many people in the Lake Houston Area felt the May flood was far out of proportion to the amount of rainfall received. The most extreme rains did not fall on downstream residents’ heads. For downstream residents, the rains fell unseen – 50 miles north.

Let’s look at data for Huntsville first. Even though the City itself technically sits just outside the San Jacinto River Basin, rainfall south and west of the City entered both the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto.

Harvey Week vs Week Around May Storm

During Hurricane Harvey week in 2017, the SJRA gage southwest of Huntsville received 20.46 inches of rain.

Area near Huntsville received 20.46 inches during Harvey week in 2017.

During the late April/early May storm of 2024, the same gage received just a little less – 18.4 inches.

Huntsville total for week starting April 28, 2024, fell about two inches short of Harvey.

This area got almost as much rain in one week this May as it did during Harvey. Now let’s look at year to date numbers.

Year-to-Date Totals Vs. Harvey

The National Weather Service maintains another gage in Huntsville which accounts for a slightly different total. But I’m using it for the YTD comparison because of the powerful graph. It illustrates how much rain the area recently received compared to normal. (We already know the Harvey total from the first bar graph above.)

How wet has 2024 been? YTD accumulation graph.
From National Weather Service Climate Page.

From the brown line above, we can see that area normally gets 20 inches of rain through the end of May. This year it got 58.97 inches, almost triple the annual average at that point in the year.

The amount above normal (38.97 inches) is almost twice what the Huntsville area received during Harvey (20.46 inches)!

National Weather Service Data

So far this year, the upper river basin has received almost three Harveys worth of rain, or two above the normal YTD rainfall…for that latitude.

I should note here, that inland areas usually receive less rain than coastal areas during hurricanes. So if you’re saying, “Wait a minute! We received more than 20 inches of rain during Harvey,” you’re right. You also probably live south of Huntsville.

How to Compare Totals at Other Gages

Want to see what happened at a gage near you? HCFCD’s Flood Warning System lets you enter any date range using the historical feature. Just click on the “More Info” button associated with any gage. Or do it for the whole river basin to see the distribution of totals.

YTD rainfall distribution across upper SJR basin.

To quickly compare the distribution during Harvey, just change the dates to 8/25/17 and 8/29/17. It’s fun to explore. And it makes a fun learning experience for your kids. Teach them how to become “data detectives.” It could turn them into homeroom heroes.

Alternatively, you can compare Harris County gages during Harvey by consulting the tables at the end of HCFCD’s final Harvey report. It contains peak rainfall totals for all the gages above for time periods ranging from five minutes to four days.

The Reports Page of this website contains similar reports on other storms under the Major Storms tab.

Significance and Recommendations

There’s a point to all this data. We can draw several conclusions and recommendations from it:

  • Extreme rainfall in the northern tier of the river basin contributed to the flooding that many experienced 50 miles south.
  • Rainfall coming from the west and east was less intense and likely accounted for less damage downstream.
  • Heavy rains can fall outside of hurricane season. In fact, spring storms can exceed hurricane rainfall totals and rival hurricane intensity.
  • We need regional flood control. The people near Huntsville were not prepared for this event. Neither were people to the south protected.
  • Hurricane Harvey wasn’t a once-in-a-1,000 year rainfall. Pretending it was will jeopardize public safety. We need better building codes and drainage regulations in areas that haven’t already been updated since Harvey.
  • We also need updated flood maps that show current risk to help protect homebuyers. New floodplain surveys were conducted after Hurricane Harvey. But FEMA hasn’t yet released new risk maps based on those surveys. Many fast-growing areas in the region still base development decisions on data from the 1980s. That puts homebuyers at risk.

Flood Risk: A Shifting Target

Even as FEMA finalizes new flood-risk maps, understand that Mother Nature, sand mines, and insufficiently mitigated upstream developments are constantly changing the landscape through erosion and deposition.

The resulting blockages and reduction in conveyance may now contribute to increased flooding on smaller rains. Consider River Grove Park and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. Both are now blocked by sand from upstream.

Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove silted in again.
Kingwood Diversion Ditch where it passes through River Grove Park. Photo from 5/26.

It’s not as bad as it was after Harvey…yet. But up to five feet of sand was deposited in this area during the recent flood. So give it a few more floods.

As the City of Houston readies a $34 million dollar dredging program (that doesn’t even include River Grove), look what’s coming downstream to us.

Confluence of West Fork and Spring Creek near US59 bridge. West Fork, on right.

The West Fork snakes through 20 square miles of sand mines between US59 and I-45. And due to pit capture, the West Fork currently runs through a mile-long sand pit.

That raises one final recommendation: I wish the City could use its influence in Washington and Austin to have the EPA and TCEQ eliminate these blatant abuses.

In the meantime, the Kingwood Service Association will debate its own dredging program and the future of River Grove this Thursday night. To attend the online meeting, contact the KSA office at 281-358-5192 for a Zoom link.

Posted by Bob Rehak on June 4, 2024

2471 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Review: In Too Deep – Class and Mothering in a Flooded Community

Rachel Tolbert Kimbro, a professor of sociology at Rice, has produced the rarest of commodities: an easily readable book, rich with academic value. In Too Deep: Class and Mothering in a Flooded Community is the story of 36 upper middle-class mothers on Houston’s southwest side before, during, and after Hurricane Harvey. It’s about:

  • Why they chose the neighborhood they live in – despite knowledge of prior floods
  • Their struggle to survive during Harvey
  • The fight to recover after the storm – financially, physically and psychologically – while holding their families together
  • Why most chose to stay instead of move, despite repeated floods.

Common Themes

Professor Rachel Tolbert Kimbro, Rice University Photo.

Professor Kimbro interviewed the women extensively over the course of several years and found common themes between their stories. Among them: the struggle to protect their children, neighborhood, school, and friendships. The values they found in their neighborhood – affordability, diversity, walkability, a good school, safety, and a supportive network of neighbors – brought them together. And fear of losing those values after the flood kept them from moving elsewhere. Sound familiar? You could substitute “proximity to nature” for “proximity to museums” and understand why so many flood victims chose to stay in the Lake Houston Area after Harvey.

Qualitative Research Yields Insights

For In Too Deep, Kimbro used structured qualitative research, not quantitative. The result is a moving narrative, replete with insight and pathos. It mirrors, in a different part of Houston, many of the interviews I have done in the Lake Houston Area since Harvey.

Those who flooded will find painful memories and, ultimately, a sense of kinship that comes from a recognition of their shared struggles. Kimbro’s description of rescues by kayak; of several families crowding into one upstairs room with their pets; of struggles with contractors and adjusters; and of families sleeping on air mattresses for more than a year will bring many people to tears.

Policy makers will gain insights into what makes buyouts so difficult despite such difficulties. The book explains why many people in this neighborhood wanted to stay put after Harvey despite prior, severe flooding during the Tax and Memorial Day storms.

Kimbro’s editorial decision to focus only on women in one area and from one social class limits her research somewhat. But what it loses in breadth, it gains in depth. There is little academic research into how upper middle-class moms cope with disasters. Most research on flooding focuses on less affluent, communities of color.

Spoiler Alert

Professor Kimbro recreated the Harvey experience completely and faithfully from the standpoint of her interviewees. Women in the Lake Houston Area will likely identify with the struggles Kimbro’s subjects faced. Spoiler alert: keep a box of tissues handy when you read this book.

Kimbro changed women’s names and even the name of their neighborhood to protect their privacy and confidentiality. Many of the women felt almost violated from having neighbors and contractors traipse through the private spaces in their homes (bedrooms, bathrooms, etc.) to rip out wallboard, tile, and carpet. I just wish she had mentioned the fictitious neighborhood name in the introduction, not at the end.

Throughout the book, she refers to the neighborhood as “Bayou Oaks” and the school that the children go to as “Bayou Oaks Elementary.”

I wanted so much to photograph this neighborhood that I Googled the names to find their locations. I also tried to look them up in multiple map apps and Google Earth. No joy! There is no Bayou Oaks Elementary in the Houston ISD. And there is no Bayou Oaks where she described it.

As a consequence, at times I wondered how real In Too Deep was. But it is very real.

Suggestion for Future Research

One thing struck me as odd though. Unless I missed it on first reading, none of the women focused on political action (lobbying for flood mitigation) as a solution to their flood woes. None of these mothers turned into political activists lobbying for flood mitigation dollars – despite their fear of future floods.

In contrast, less affluent, predominantly minority communities seize headlines and more dollars every week. Why the difference? Is it financial desperation? Lack of alternatives? Or something cultural?

This is certainly an area for future investigation. And I hope Kimbro takes it up. She’s both a talented researcher and storyteller. We have a lot to learn from her.

In Too Deep comes in paperback, hardbound and digital editions. I purchased the Kindle edition from Amazon. I highly recommend it.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/25/2022

1669 Days since Hurricane Harvey

GLO Extends Deadline for Harvey Homeowner Assistance Applications

The original deadline for Hurricane Harvey Homeowner Assistance applications has been extended from this Friday to New Year’s Eve at 5 P.M. Applications do not have to be completed by then, just started by then. So if you still hope to receive aid, move quickly. Money is running out and eligible applications will be prioritized based on who applied first.

The process involves a large number of documents and complex rules that govern eligibility. Here is the full text of this morning’s press release from the GLO. It includes information on where to apply.

What remained of a home washed downstream during Harvey. Photo by Dan Monks.

AUSTIN — The Texas General Land Office (GLO) has extended the deadline to submit applications for the Homeowner Assistance Program (HAP) to 5 p.m. Dec. 31, 2021. All potential applicants must submit draft applications by the deadline to be considered for eligibility so long as funding is available.

We encourage the community to remember that applications do not need to be fully complete to be submitted. Once application intake concludes, additional program resources will be dedicated to processing applicants for eligibility, through the permitting process and into construction. Applications can be submitted even if documentation is missing as HAP applicant coordinators continue to help applicants who are missing documentation.

The HAP regional offices will remain open, and processing of applications will continue indefinitely until program funds are fully expended. Applications will be considered for award on a first-come, first-served basis, according to the priorities outlined in the Regional Housing Guidelines.

Submitting a complete application does not guarantee eligibility nor funding availability, but applicants must submit a complete application by the deadline to be potentially considered for assistance.

Those residing inside the Houston city limits should apply at recovery.texas.gov/hap/houston, while non-Houston residents of Harris County should apply at recovery.texas.gov/hap/harriscounty. New applicants can also call the toll-free intake center line at 1-866-317-1998.

Harris County and the City of Houston received direct allocations of funding for residents in their jurisdictions. Applicants who previously applied to and are receiving assistance from Harris County and the City of Houston directly should continue to work with their program representatives.

In the City of Houston, applications being processed for eligibility already outnumber available funds, but funds remain available in non-Houston Harris County areas. HAP continues to take waitlist applications in Houston in case additional funding becomes available.

Waitlisted applications will be reviewed for eligibility in the order received based on their submission date, should additional funding be approved. Applications that are started, but not yet submitted by 5 p.m. on Dec. 31, 2021, cannot be considered for assistance.

Thus far, in all 49 counties eligible for Community Development Block Grants for Disaster Recovery (CDBG-DR) funding from U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the GLO has approved nearly 6,900 applications for construction, with about 850 homes currently under construction and more than 4,000 completed with keys in the hands of homeowners.

The GLO continues processing completed applications with the expectation of rebuilding up to 10,000 homes total for those needing assistance with available funds, with approximately 3,000 of those homes expected to be rebuilt in Harris County and the City of Houston.

Individuals affected by Hurricane Harvey may qualify for assistance through the Homeowner Assistance Program if:

  • They owned their home
  • It was damaged or destroyed by Hurricane Harvey
  • It was their primary residence at the time of the storm
  • Other eligibility factors also apply.

The program offers qualified homeowners assistance to repair, rehabilitate or rebuild homes damaged by Hurricane Harvey. Potential applicants should review the Homeowner Assistance Program Checklist to have all applicable documents ready prior to applying.

Interested homeowners can visit recovery.texas.gov/hap/houston or recovery.texas.gov/hap/harriscounty to find more information.

– End of Release –

For More Information About Homeowner Assistance Applications

The GLO’s main Homeowner Assistance Program website – https://recovery.texas.gov/hap – also provides links to these important documents:

Applications, including all necessary documentation, must be completed and submitted BEFORE the GLO and its partners will begin processing it for eligibility. Each application submitted must be individually evaluated to determine eligibility. If applicants or potential applicants have questions, please contact 346-222-4686 or 1-866-317-1998 (toll free).

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/15/2021 based on a Texas GLO press release.

1539 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Help Needed: Public Comment Period Swiftly Closing on $750 Million HUD Flood-Mitigation Grant for Harris County

The Texas General Land Office (GLO) has announced that the public comment period for the first amendment to the state’s action plan for Community Development Block Grants for Mitigation (CDBG-MIT) will close in twelve days – on September 29, 2021. The GLO first posted the amendment to its $4.3 billion action plan on August 23rd.

Harris County essentially got shut out of the first round of grants last summer. This amendment would allocate $750 million to Harris County in the second round. That’s good as far as it goes, but Harris County needs more and the proposed amendment needs tweaks. Read more below.

Townhome destroyed by 240,000 cubic feet per second during Harvey.

Background

Earlier this year, the GLO held a statewide competition for approximately $1.1 billion in Harvey flood mitigation funds. Harris County received none, despite being one of the most heavily populated and impacted counties in the state.

A public uproar ensued. GLO Commissioner George P. Bush then agreed to commit $750 million to Harris County for the second round of funding.

The amendment also obligates the county to define a method of distribution (MOD) for that money within US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) rules.

The “amendment” has been folded into the state’s action plan. The combined document totals a whopping 1134 pages – more than 100 megabytes. You can download the entire doc from the GLO site here. You can read the relevant seven pages (Section 5.4.5) here. Or read the discussion below.

Outline of MOD Rules

The amendment is based on a Method of Distribution (MOD) program. It makes the GLO the direct recipient of HUD funds and Harris County a sub-recipient.

Harris County must define the MOD plan to allocate funds to eligible entities within rules defined by HUD.

Eligible entities include:
  • Local governments (cities/towns)
  • Special purpose districts (MUDs/improvement districts/drainage districts, etc.)
  • Ports
  • River authorities

GLO encourages prioritization of projects that meet regional mitigation needs.

Harris County’s MOD plan must benefit at least 50% LMI (low-to-moderate income) residents.

Eligible activities include:
  • Flood control and drainage improvements
  • Infrastructure improvements
  • Natural or green infrastructure
  • Communications infrastructure
  • Public facilities
  • Buyouts
  • Relocation assistance to outside of floodplains
  • Public service (housing, legal, job, mental health and general health counseling with a 15% cap)
  • Economic development
  • Elevation of critical structures
  • Planning (5% cap)
Ineligible activities include:
  • Emergency response services
  • Enlargement of a dam or levee
  • Assistance for privately owned utilities
  • Improvement of buildings used by government
  • Funding USACE projects in excess of $250,000
  • Projects involving use of eminent domain that benefit private parties
Buyouts

Have their own guidelines which are too complicated to summarize here.

Timeline
  • The clock starts ticking 4 months after HUD’s approval of Amendment #1.
  • 50% of the grant must be expended by Jan. 12, 2027.
  • 100% must be expended by January 12, 2032.

Experts say all this time may be needed given the complexity of navigating HUD processes, which are lengthier than other sources.

Discussion/Recommendations

Harris County and the Flood Control District support the amendment. It is certainly justified by the number of people in Harris County and the amount of damage inflicted by Harvey.

However, $750 million is not enough. A fairer amount would be closer to $1 billion. As the action plan points out, approximately one third of Harris County went under water during Harvey.

Alan Black, interim executive director of the Harris County Flood Control District, points out several other reasons for increasing the allocation:

The City of Houston has still been left out. Flooding in Harris County has a dual nature. “You can address the rivers and channels,” he says, “but if water can’t get to the bayous, people will still flood when water ponds in neighborhoods. Both riverine and street flooding must be addressed together.”

Black also points out that administrative fees are capped at 6%, but with HUD compliance costs, 8% is more realistic. Moreover, those administrative costs must come out of the $750 million – they are not on top of it. So the real amount of money available for flood mitigation would be reduced to about $690 million.

Finally, the Amendment also allocates approximately $450 million to Houston/Galveston Area Council, much of which would go back into the City of Houston. Black points out that flood mitigation is the Flood Control District’s core competency and that HCFCD can construct projects much faster and more efficiently than HGAC.

An estimated one third of Harris County went under water during Harvey. Photo courtesy of Sally Geis before her rescue.

With the trust fund recently created by Commissioner’s Court, plus $750 million, Black feels confident every project listed under the flood bond could be constructed.

But he worries about inflation of construction costs (which he is already seeing) and the admin costs.

Black intends to build projects as quickly as he can. If there’s a project in an LMI neighborhood that’s shovel ready, he will build it with bond money and not wait for HUD funding which could add years of delays.

That said, there are many projects that are not shovel ready that could benefit from this money. In fact, the need is greater than available funding, says Black.

Make Your Feelings Known

Please consider these points and take time to submit a public comment. Email is probably the easiest way. It doesn’t require you to wait through a meeting for your turn to speak, and doesn’t limit you to a certain amount of time.

Photo by Camille Pagel. Her children are helping to gut the kitchen instead of going to school after the Harvey flood.

How to Register Your Opinion

You can register your opinion in any one of five ways.

All public comments submitted by 5 p.m. on Sept. 29, 2021, will be considered. The method of submittal does not matter. Per federal requirements, the GLO will respond to public comments before the amendment is sent to HUD for final approval.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/17/2021

1480 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Day of Terror Relived: Sally Geis’ Harvey Evacuation Story

In August 2017, Sally Geis and her husband JG watched as Harvey’s floodwaters crept over the San Jacinto West Fork river bank. They thought they would be safe. But soon rising water turned to raging water. As they moved upstairs, they took a hatchet. JG said it was to kill snakes that got in the house. But Sally wondered if it was to chop a hole in their roof in case they needed an escape hatch.

I’ve known Sally and JG for almost three years. They first contacted me in regard to development practices in floodplains and floodways. But it wasn’t until today, that Sally sent me pictures from Harvey showing her harrowing escape. Rick Alspaugh’s comment about PTSD in yesterday’s post caused her to review her pictures from Harvey and share them. Like Rick, she has a hard time overcoming the memories of what for some neighbors turned into a fatal experience.

Photographing the River’s Rise During Four Days

Sally’s rediscovered cache of photos creates a valuable addition to our understanding of how Harvey’s floodwaters rose and spread in the Kingwood area.

Before Waters Rose
West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge over West Fork San Jacinto before the flood. August 25th, 2017, 11:09 a.m.
Waters Begin to Rise
August 27th, 2017 at 7:17 a.m. Note how much closer the level of the water is to the bridge and how part of the boat dock is under water.
River Fully Out of its Banks
August 28, 2017 at 10:44 p.m. Boat dock is completely under water. Street signs visible in earlier photos are almost completely submerged.

Serious Trouble

August 29, 2017 at 8:35 a.m. Street signs are under water but top parts of light poles are still visible. Note bridge on far right. Water almost touches bridge in center. But at far end on Atascocita side, the road bed is tangent with the river. All surface features in foreground are submerged.

River Rescue

Soon a boat was the only way out…a boat which snatched them from the second story of their home.

Said Sally, “The current was very fierce — he really knew what he was doing!! We could touch the tree tops and the street name signs overhead!”

Geis rescue during Harvey. Two men from Paris, TX drove 6 hours with their boat to help. Sally said they had to rev their engine up to full speed to fight the cross current. Notice the churning waves among the trees in the background as they make their way north on West Lake Houston Parkway to the drop off point. August 29, 2017 at 6:55 P.M.

The picture above was taken north of Kingwood Drive almost two miles from the main channel of the West Fork. Yet look at that turbulence in the water. Normally, a point this far from a river would be designated as “floodplain storage.” Normally, that would mean placid waters, the opposite of what you see.

Eventually, the rescue boat dropped Sally and JG off at Wendy’s on West Lake Houston Parkway at Rustic Woods, several blocks north of where the photo above was taken. From there to the water’s edge on the south side of the West Fork is approximately 2 miles…wider than the widest part of Lake Houston itself – just upstream from the spillway – during normal times.

Eventually the river became wider than Lake Houston normally is.

From Wendy’s, a car ferried Sally and JG to a volunteer’s home where they slept the next night.

Day After Explorations

The following day, they explored the area on foot, still in shock, surveying all the damage. Water remained high in many places. Rescue operations continued.

At Woodland Hills and Tangle Lake, rescue efforts continued. August 30, 11:26 AM.
Shady Run at Kingwood Drive. Water normally flows from left to right here. But note how the trees appear to have been pushed from right to left. August 30, 2017 at noon.
At the same intersection, water reached halfway up street signs. August 30, 2017, 12:07 PM

Revisiting the Escape Route Days Later

“We went OVER this bridge in the boat!!” said Sally Geis.

West Lake Houston Bridge over Bens Branch after water receded. Photo taken 9/1/2017. Geis says her rescue boat went OVER, NOT UNDER THESE BRIDGES.

According to Geis, on the way out, rescue-boat propellers kept striking submerged cars, nearly capsizing boats on more than one occasion.

Photo taken 9/1/2017 after water receded. Car destroyed by propeller of rescue boat was totally submerged when struck. Side window was likely blown out by water pressure.

“A lot of boats were hitting submerged signs, cars, heavy things — they had no idea what was underwater. One boat hit a car, began to sink and nearly capsized. Thankfully it didn’t. A lady onboard could not swim. The water was over our heads and the current was scary and swift, plus contaminated. I heard there were 500 rescue boats in all — including the Cajun Navy, helicopters, jet skis,” said Geis.

After Shocks

Sally and JG lost their vehicles in the flood. And like so many others, they lost all the belongings on the lower floor of their home. Here is a short video of a scene they filmed on a walkabout after Harvey’s floodwater’s receded.

Video of Harvey Debris in Kingwood, TX by Sally Geis. Shot September 3, 2017, at 5:29 PM.

Sally’s brother later picked the couple up when the water receded and took them to a friend’s home. The friend was on vacation, so they got to rest up for five days before facing the destruction.

Says Sally, “Those images of every street lined with trash – of complete households hauled to the curb – for months on end added to the depression and PTSD.”

Geis and her husband spent the next two years restoring their home.

After fighting developers who wanted to build in the floodway of the West Fork, they finally sold their home earlier this year. They now live in a high rise downtown.

Sally says, “People who have never been through an experience like this have no idea how real the PTSD can be. It can take over your life.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on September 16, 2021, based on the photos and memories of Sally Geis

1479 Days since Hurricane Harvey


The Long Road to Recovery: Rick Alspaugh’s Harvey Story

Four years after Harvey, the storm’s effects are still visible at Alspaugh’s Hardware Store in Kingwood’s Town Center. To this day, Rick Alspaugh struggles to balance inventory with service, the thing that made his business formula unique. This is the story of how Harvey affected him, his business, his customers and 60 employees.

Bob: Your family’s first hardware store in Kingwood was up near the front. When did you move to Town Center?

Rick: We bought our property from Friendswood in 1993 and opened our store in ‘94.

Rick Alspaugh (center), wife KellyAnnette (right) and manager Dallas Behman (left)

27 Years of Success Based on Unique Formula

Bob: You’ve been there 27 years! Did the entry of Lowe’s into the market affect your business?

Rick: Not really. They don’t do what we do.

Bob: How would you characterize that?

Rick: They have great inventories. But we have people who can walk you through a project. We were the go-to place for service. People don’t come here for lumber, tile, sinks and carpet. They come for parts, paint, smaller things. And we have this amazing boutique with unique things that nobody else carries. With goods at all price levels. Plus free gift-wrapping. You can’t get that anywhere else in the city. 

Back before Harvey, we also had a huge selection of barbecue equipment. We’re struggling right now, but God’s going to get us through it. 

Bob: Let’s go back to Hurricane Harvey. 

3.5 Feet of Water in 16,000 SF Store, But No Flood Insurance

Rick: August 28th 2017. I’ll never forget it. Everything went underwater. Deep under water – three and a half feet.

Alspaugh’s during Harvey

We lost twenty-seven computers. They were all on desktops, but that wasn’t high enough.

The height of Harvey’s floodwaters meant Alspaugh lost 27 computers sitting on desktops – all but one in the paint department.

Bob: Were you insured for that?

Rick: Not a bit.

Bob: (shocked) You didn’t have flood insurance?!

Rick: About a month before Harvey, my insurance agent came in. We talked about how we had grown and increased my coverage. Then Harvey hit. I’ll come back to that in a minute.

60 Employees Help Jumpstart Business

Rick: At the time, I had about 60 employees. The day after Harvey, everyone showed up and started cleaning. It was amazing, Bob. They rebuilt the store. It was unreal. It was just… We came together!

Within three days, we were able to open by working out of trailers and a cargo container outside with one surviving computer from the paint department. We ran wires out there. And we re-opened out of that container.

I ordered about $400,000 worth of stuff that people would need for cleanup.

“I Just Assumed I Had Flood Insurance”

Rick: In the flood, we also lost three trucks. A generator. And our forklifts. I used up all my cash reserves to get going again and keep people working. So, I called my agent to make some insurance claims and he says, “For what?” 

“We flooded in Harvey! This was a total loss,” I said.

Alspaugh tossed his entire inventory, fearing contamination from a sewage treatment plant just upstream.

He goes, “You’re not covered for rising water. You don’t have flood insurance.”

My agent never once asked me if I wanted flood insurance. And I never asked if I had it. I just…assumed. I assumed I had it. 

Luckily, the three trucks were covered under our automotive policy. So, I got money for them. But it was not enough to replace them.

Bob: How long did it take to reopen? 

Doing Business Outside While Rebuilding Inside

Rick: By September 1st, we were selling outside. But for all of September and October, and most of November, we were rebuilding the inside.

At lunch, our barbecue vendor came in to cook for us. We would pressure wash the tables, turn a bunch of buckets upside down, sit, pray, and eat. That really brought us together. 

Before the store was even cleaned out, I targeted reopening inside for the Saturday before Thanksgiving. Everyone just looked at me with giant eyes. But by God, we got to work. And we made it happen. 

Bob: Were there any setbacks? 

Rick: We received three 18 wheelers of shelving…in the wrong order. We needed uprights first. But they came on the last truck…a week late. So, we literally lost a week of assembly. But we were back in the store by Monday before Thanksgiving.

Bob: Wow.

Rick: In about eight weeks, we completely redid the store. But that was eight hours a day for 60 people.

Starting over from the ground up

$3.2 Million in Flood Losses

Bob: How much did you lose in Harvey?

Rick: $3.2 million dollars. We lost the entire inventory. We trashed it all because I was concerned about contamination. It was nasty. We’re less than a quarter of a mile downriver from Kingwood’s main sewage treatment plant. We just had to trash everything.

Store interior after floodwater receded. Note water line on standing cardboard cartons.

But when we reopened, everything was 100 percent clean. Brand new. We threw out everything touched by Harvey. Four trailer loads of barbecue pits were crushed and hauled straight to the scrap yard. 

Even the barbecues, his signature product line, went to the dump.

Bob: I had no idea. Did any of the newspapers write that story?

Rick: No. I never felt I was special to where I needed to talk about it. All the people around me suffered similar losses. The jewelry store. The photofinisher. The barbershop. The cupcake guy. Everybody in Town Center lost everything. 

Bob: Did you ever think the water would get this high?

Rick: I knew it could reach Town Center because of the 1994 flood. So, during Harvey, we tried to raise everything up about a foot. But I never thought three and a half feet!

If you had three and a half feet of snow, it would melt by next week and it would be business as usual. But when you have three and a half feet of water in your store…well, here I am talking about the recovery four years later.

Plagued by PTSD

Bob: How has this affected you personally?

Rick: People don’t realize how real PTSD is. I have my eye on the Weather Channel all the time now.

Bob: Do you have flood insurance now?

Rick: Yes, sir. And I’ve got a different insurance agent, too.

Business Since Harvey

Bob: So, you lost $3.2 million worth of inventory and computers. You had to start over. Without help from insurance. How has Harvey affected your business since then?

Rick: Harvey not only destroyed our store, it wiped out 3000 homes within a nine-iron shot of here. This entire neighborhood…gone. Customers didn’t need most of what I had at that point. They needed major remodel stuff: carpet, tile, wallboard, like that. They needed contractors, not light switches. Plus, they didn’t have flood insurance and had to bear the cost of recovery out of pocket. 

We have problems. But not like most people. We’re not on the way to M.D. Anderson. Having burned through my own savings, I just don’t have enough money to offer the kind of service people came to expect.

Government Grants Slow in Coming

Bob: What comes next?

Rick: We’re poised to recover. I just need inventory. We filed for some Harvey help.

I got some tax relief, which was very nice. An SBA loan which we’re paying back. The Humble Chamber helped us, which was a huge blessing. 

Congress appropriated $100 million to small businesses for Harvey grants. But they take forever. Worse, they had $250 million worth of need.

Luckily, friends in the community stepped up to help fill that gap. That’s why we are here today. I’m not begging friends anymore. I’m just not. But I would like to get some of this Harvey aid. I certainly qualify.

Banking on Community Spirit

Bob: So where do you go from here?

Rick: We’re here every day. The lights are on. And we still have stuff to sell. Just not as much as we used to.

Bob: You know, I can’t imagine cooking barbeque without your store.

Rick: Thank you.

Bob: I see Alspaugh’s as a central location for community spirit.

Rick: It used to be. And it can be again. There’s not a whole lot that we can’t do as a community.

Posted by Bob Rehak on September 15, 2021 based on an interview with Rick Alspaugh

1478 Days since Hurricane Harvey

‘Wind Fingerprints’: Scientists Dissect What Accounts for the Destructiveness of Different Storms

Last week, a story about ‘wind fingerprints’ in The Washington Post caught my eye. It purported to show the difference between Ida and Katrina. The story by Bonnie Berkowitz and Laris Karklis starts with this teaser: “Ida hit Louisiana with faster winds than Katrina, but a hurricane’s category number is just part of what makes each storm unique — and uniquely destructive.” I was hooked.

Factors in Fingerprinting Storms

“Ida struck Louisiana on Aug. 29 as a strong Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum winds of about 150 mph — much higher than the maximum winds of 125 mph from Katrina, a Category 3,” say the authors.

However, the wind speed is just part of the picture. To get the big picture, one must also consider:

  • Breadth of the wind field
  • Wind direction
  • Total energy contained in the storm
  • Forward motion
  • Angle at which it struck the coastline
  • Track
  • Proximity to population centers
  • And more.

The story quotes Michael Kozar, a meteorologist who models storms for risk-analysis company RMS. Says Kozar, each wind field is like a fingerprint.

“Each wind fingerprint is unique to the storm, and it is why each storm produces a unique amount of loss and has unique impacts.”

Michael Kozar, RMS

Examples of Wind Fingerprint Differences

“A very large storm with moderate winds may contain more integrated kinetic energy than an intense but small storm, and it may create havoc for people on land in a different way,” says the story.

The story goes into great detail comparing Ida to Katrina. Ida packed higher winds (150 vs. 125 mph peaks). But Katrina packed more energy – 116 terajoules vs. 47 for Ida. By comparison, Superstorm Sandy in 2012 had an estimated 330 terajoules of energy.

A terajoule is so large, it’s hard to find an analogy that puts it in perspective for most people. But scientists estimate that the atomic bomb over Hiroshima released about 63 terajoules of energy – slightly more than Ida, but a little less than half of Katrina.

RMS estimates the smaller punch of Ida was due in part to the shorter time it was able to gather steam, so to speak, over open water. Ida gained full strength just hours before landfall. But Katrina churned over the open Gulf for three days before slamming into Louisiana. It grew much larger, in fact, about twice as large.

Relative size of wind fields estimated by risk-analysis firm RMS. Katrina more than doubled Ida’s diameter.

RMS also explained how Katrina came in east of Lake Pontchartrain, while Ida came in to the west. With the counter-clockwise rotation of low pressure systems in the northern hemisphere, that meant Katrina pushed water toward New Orleans and Ida pushed water away.

The forward speed of a storm can make a huge difference in the types of damage it causes compared to its rotational speed. Category 4 Harvey, for instance, stalled over Houston for days, dropping torrential rains. But Category 5 Hurricane Andrew ripped through south Florida in hours. Harvey flooded homes. Andrew tore them apart.

This article gives you both insights and food for thought that can help you prepare better for the next storm. It’s highly recommended reading.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/2021 based on a story by Bonnie Berkowitz and Laris Karklis in The Washington Post and data from RMS

1470 Days since Hurricane Harvey