New Water-On-The-Go App Enhances Situational Awareness

The United States Geological Service (USGS) has introduced a new, real-time, web-based, all-purpose water app called “Water On the Go” that enhances situational awareness. The new GPS-aware, web app locates flood gages in 360 degrees around your current location within a user-defined radius.

Water On The Go provides real-time information throughout Texas for:

  • stream flows
  • lake levels
  • rainfall

User-Defined Alerts

Water On the Go also allows users to have alerts sent to them whenever the gages exceed user-defined parameters. For instance, if the gage at the West Fork and US59 exceeded X feet in height or Y cubic feet per second, the app would text an alert to your cell phone or email you (your choice).

How Water On the Go Works

The app automatically finds data near your current location (or any chosen location in Texas) for rapid access to water information. When you first enter the app, you are in preference pane that lets you define the type of information you are looking for. From there, you enter a map view like the one below. The app finds your location (or lets you select one. Then it automatically locates gages around you. Icons pop up representing each of the gages.

When you first enter Water on The Go, the app finds gages around you within a user-defined radius.

Special icons indicate rapidly rising streams and lakes or heavy rain that may pose a flood risk. Note the red triangles in the image above.

When you click on a gage in the radius view, detailed information from the gage pops up. You can designate it to display the type of information most important to you.

When you click on any gage, you can dig down to more information about the water at that location, including current water levels, a graph of levels in recent days, and links to more data and information.

Deceptively Deep (No Pun Intended)

The Water on the Go app is deceptively deep. It provides a wealth of historical information in graphic formats that make it easy to understand and convenient to use.

This is definitely a site that you will want to bookmark during hurricane season. In one place you can find information that used to be scattered all over the web.

I have only one suggestion. The mobile experience needs to be enhanced. Smaller screen sizes hamper functionality somewhat. The app works like a dream on desktops and laptops. It works well on tablets. But on cell phones, it can be a bit of a struggle to pinpoint locations with fat fingers. Of course, I had GPS tracking on my phone turned off for privacy reasons. I’m sure it works much better with GPS tracking turned on.

For Flood Warnings, Fishermen and More

I expect that most members of the public would find this app especially valuable in several situations.

  • When approaching storms dump massive rainfalls upstream, you could see floods coming downstream at you and monitor the closest gages to determine whether and when you should evacuate..
  • When boating, you can set lake an stream level alerts to warn you when water levels drop below minimums.
  • When traveling vacationing, as I was during Harvey, you could use the app to navigate around trouble spots and check whether your home is in danger.
  • When you have friends, relatives or children whom you are concerned about in another location, you can check their safety at a glance.

The app even lets you monitor water temp, oxygen levels and turbidity – factors that fishermen could find valuable.

This application was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Texas Water Science Center Data and Spatial Studies group and is fueled by USGS Water Services.

My thanks to Diane Cooper for alerting me to this new tool. Diane is a FEMA employee who has more than 20 years of experience forecasting floods and weather for the National Weather Service.

A Testimonial

As I was composing this post on Sunday evening, I received a text alert from Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control. He warned that parts of Spring and Little Cypress Creeks might be coming out of their banks. I checked them with the app about an hour later. Sure enough, the gages for those creeks indicated trouble exactly where he indicated.

Check out Water on the Go. Better yet, bookmark it and sign up for alerts.

https://txpub.usgs.gov/water-onthego/

Posted May 21, 2018 by Bob Rehak

265 Days since Hurricane Harvey

A Personal Flood-Control Wish List For the Lake Houston Area

On August 25th, the anniversary of Hurricane Harvey, Harris County residents will vote on a $2.5 billion flood bond. The County has not yet made clear what mitigation measures would be in the bond proposal. Hence, my personal wish list. Not all items on the list below are suitable for a bond, but could still help mitigate flooding. I’m including them here to have them all in one place. You may have other ideas. Let’s start a public dialog. Please contact me through this website or on Facebook with your opinions. I will collect and publish all credible ideas on behalf of the community.

Causes of Flooding in the Upper Lake Houston Area

Before we start, it’s important to note that the main type of flooding in our area is riverine. Humble, Kingwood, Atascocita and Huffman sit at the confluence of two main forks of the San Jacinto River.

Together, the East and West Forks drain more than a thousand square miles upstream through smaller tributaries. Those include Spring Creak, Cypress Creek and Lake Creek on the West Fork; and Caney Creek, Peach Creek and Luce Bayou on the East Fork.

Hurricane Harvey brought an estimated 400,000 cubic feet of water per second (cfs) down those tributaries to Lake Houston. The release from the dam at Lake Conroe at the peak of the storm was 79,141 cfs.

San Jacinto River Watershed Flow Rates

Where Water Came From During Harvey

That 79,141 cfs was approximately one third of 236,000 cfs coming down the heavily populated area between Kingwood, Humble and Atascocita where most of the damage occurred at the peak of the storm.

Both the West Fork and East Forks contain massive sand mines that were inundated by Harvey. As the photos elsewhere on this website show, those floodwaters swept up sand, carried it downstream, and deposited it at choke points that now create higher-than-expected floods on lower-than-normal rainfalls.

My Personal Flood-Remediation Wish List

1) Add upstream retention to reduce the amount of water coming downstream at peaks. Such retention would have to be built in unpopulated areas. That limits possibilities, however, it does not eliminate them. Lake Creek, Peach Creek and/or the East Fork of the San Jacinto all contain natural areas that could be considered as candidates. Ideally, the amount of extra detention would at least be sufficient to offset releases from the dam at Lake Conroe. 

2) Regularly dredge the East Fork, West Fork, and drainage ditches. The frequency should be at least every 5 years, the interval recommended in 2000 by the Brown & Root Regional Flood Protection Study (page E-9). Sand mines continue to send huge volumes of sand downstream with every flood. The sand blocks drainage ditches and restricts the cross section of the river. That creates higher-than-expected flooding on relatively small rains. Regular dredging does not necessarily have to occur at public cost. Tax incentives could encourage sand mining companies to dredge the river at their own expense. They could sell the recovered material to help recoup costs. However, this would have to be done under government supervision to discourage excessive dredging that undermines river banks.
3) Add more flood gates to Lake Houston. This would allow the City to release water earlier and faster during major storms. This could create extra capacity in the lake to absorb flood water. Lake Houston has two small floodgates, but they have one tenth the capacity of the gates at Lake Conroe. In combination with the sand deposits mentioned above, this can create a bottleneck. (Note: the Harris County bond could not help with flood gates because the gates would be City of Houston assets. The City is currently securing funding for this project through the Texas Department of Emergency Management, FEMA and the Federal Government.)
4) Improve coordination/communication between the people who control dams at Lake Conroe and Lake Houston, and the public. This could improve public safety two ways. First, when the discharge capabilities of both lakes are balanced, they could release water in advance of major storms as a flood mitigation strategy. (Currently, SJRA fears that releasing water before storms could overload the downstream watershed and cause the very flooding that a pre-release strategy is designed to prevent. This is a complex issue.) Second, during Harvey, actual release rates seemed to lag public announcements, creating a false sense of security among residents downstream. Better communication could have given residents downstream time to evacuate in an orderly fashion and save their most valuable belongings.
5) Link real-time inundation mapping (currently being developed) to expected Lake Conroe release rates. Harris County is already working on a real-time inundation mapping system. This system will model flooding down to the block level. It would enable people to see how fast flood waters were rising in their neighborhoods, help them determine when to evacuate, and identify safe escape routes. Now imagine making this system available to the engineers who control the Lake Conroe dam. ALSO imagine adding features that enable them to preview and test the impact of different release strategies. For instance, “How many homes downstream will be flooded at different release rates? Which strategy would flood the fewest homes? How much water can we safely release without flooding any homes? If we have to flood homes, who should we warn? How much time will they have to evacuate?” 
6) Add sensors and gages throughout the watershed to create a more detailed picture of what is headed inbound toward Lake Conroe and Lake Houston during severe events. Such sensors and gages would support the preview capabilities outlined in point #5 above. 

7) Improve sand mine operations to reduce the amount of sand coming downstream. I would like to see a government/industry/public panel created (with public hearings) to review sand mine operations and suggest improvements. The objective would be to identify affordable best practices that could reduce sand losses, minimize dredging costs, and help protect the public. This could also reduce turbidity which would improve fishing and recreation while reducing water treatment costs. I can think of four potential strategies off the top of my head: a) replanting areas no longer actively being mined to reduce erosion, b) building walls around stockpiles that protect them from floods, c) strengthening dikes so they don’t collapse, and d) giving the river more room to expand during floods. In regard to the latter, the dikes are currently built right at the river’s edge, leaving no room for the river to expand before it floods the mines.

Sand mines by Sorters Road in Montgomery County west of Kingwood. Note how the placement of their dikes give the West Fork no room to expand during a flood. This contributes to dike collapse, mine inundation and loss of sand.

8) Temporarily lower the level of Lake Conroe. Lower the level up to one foot during the rainiest months in spring and up to two feet during the peak of hurricane season. While two feet may sound draconian to some Lake Conroe residents, on average, it’s really only 4.8 inches below the amount usually lost though evaporation during September. This is the only buffer that the upper Lake Houston area can have against flooding until we implement other mitigation measures. The SJRA board has already approved this proposal, but the City of Houston and the Texas Council on Environmental Quality have not yet done so. The Lake Conroe Association has vowed to fight a two-foot lowering.

9) Create more public green spaces near the river. I would like to see groups such as the Bayou Land Conservancy work with cities, counties and the state to buy up undeveloped and abandoned land along the river. They could then put conservation easements on it to help protect us all from future flooding. Keeping that land natural would reduce runoff;  provide a buffer between homes and harm; preserve nature and wildlife; improve water quality; and create more recreational opportunities.

10) Improve communication during power outages. We need a way to warn people when power is knocked out during a storm, cell towers are overloaded, and people are sleeping. Simply publishing information is not enough if people cannot receive it. Perhaps we need sirens linked to back up generators, like those used to warn people of tornadoes throughout most of the midwest. 

What are Your Ideas?

Please use the contact page on this web site to send me your ideas. I will add them to this list and present it to city, county, state, and river authority officials. This area probably has more geoscientists and engineers per square foot than anywhere in the world. Please help. Sound off. Let your voice be heard. Let’s show the world we can lick this problem together. If you wish, I will protect your privacy by publishing your thoughts anonymously.

Posted April 20, 2018, by Bob Rehak

Day 264 since Hurricane Harvey

 

Proposal to Temporarily Lower Lake Conroe Stirs Fight with Lake Conroe Association Over Likely 4.8 Inches

At its board meeting last month, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) voted to temporarily lower Lake Conroe. This temporary lowering would only be by one foot in the rainiest months of spring and up to two feet during the peak of hurricane season, late August and September. However, due to seasonal evaporation, the amount of the actual lowering would most likely amount to 4.8 inches in September. Assuming this is an average year, that’s just 20% of the 2 feet previously anticipated.

The temporary lowering of the lake level would provide a welcome buffer against flooding for Humble and Kingwood residents, yet has sparked a blizzard of backlash from the Lake Conroe Association.

The Lake Conroe Association has said it will accept a temporary 1-foot lowering, but not 2-feet. Read the full text of the open letter by the Association’s president. Their president asserts that that extra foot will reduce property values, hurt commerce and undermine tourism. He repeatedly refers to the temporary measure as an attempt to turn Lake Conroe into a flood-control lake, rather than a water supply lake. He has vowed to take the fight to Austin, the Texas Council on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and the City of Houston. Here’s the kicker.

Nature already lowers the lake through evaporation during the peak of hurricane season – an average of more than 19 inches in September. Therefore, the Lake Conroe Association is not really fighting about two full feet, or even an extra foot; they’re fighting about a reduction that would be just 4.8 inches if this is an average year. Only in one year out of the last 18 has the average level of Lake Conroe exceeded 201 feet in September; that was last year after Harvey.

Bill Fowler, Co-chair of Lake Houston Area Flood Prevention Initiative, researched seasonal fluctuations of Lake Conroe due to evaporation. He found that the lake normally goes down during hurricane season, often by much more than a foot. See the table below taken from USGS data. The 18-year averages for August and September, the two months in question, are:

  • August = 199.6
  • September = 199.4

USGS data showing the average monthly levels of Lake Conroe for the last 18 years. 

Four-tenths of a foot equals just 4.8 inches.

4.8 inches will cause property values to collapse? 4.8 inches is going to make or break marinas? 4.8 inches will ruin tourism?  The temporary lowering would not even last the entire two months.

Below is the exact proposal, with details supplied by Jace Houston, general manager of SJRA. It must still be approved by the City of Houston and the Texas Council on Environmental Quality (TCEQ).

Note that SJRA wouldn’t start lowering beyond one foot until August 15 and wouldn’t get down to the target level until September 1.

Also note that the temporary lowering is relative to the level SJRA tries to maintain – 201 feet above mean sea level. It does NOT begin at the actual lake level which is, on average, 199.4 feet above MSL in September.

Details of Temporary Lowering of Lake Conroe

  • As a point of reference, the normal pool level of Lake Conroe is 201’ above mean sea level (msl).
  • Spring season – April 1 through May 31.
    • Starting on April 1, gradually reduce to and maintain the level of Lake Conroe at 200’ msl (one foot below normal pool).
    • Starting on June 1, begin to capture flows to restore normal lake elevation.
  • Fall season – August 1 through September 30.
    • Starting on August 1, gradually reduce the level of Lake Conroe with a goal of reaching 200’ msl (one foot below normal pool) by August 15.
    • After August 15, continue gradually lowering the level of Lake Conroe with a goal of reaching (and maintaining) 199’ msl (two feet below normal pool) by August 31.
    • Starting October 1, begin to capture flows to restore normal lake elevation.
  • If the lake level has already dropped to the target elevation just due to evaporation, no releases would be made.
  • If a storm enters the forecast while releases are being made to lower the lake level, releases would be stopped and the river allowed to drain out until rainfall is out of the forecast.

The Lake Conroe association is really only being asked to give up the difference between 199 msl and whatever the lake level is on August 15. The full reduction would not be reached until September 1 and the lake would fill again beginning October 1.

Note that any temporary, seasonal lowering would only last until downstream mitigation projects can be implemented. For instance, the Army Corps of Engineers should begin a dredging project in June that will remove the equivalent of approximately two and half Astrodomes worth of sand from the West Fork between Humble and Kingwood. That sand currently blocks the river and drainage ditches, causing higher-than-normal flooding with modest rains.

The Lake Conroe Association speaks for its members, but not all Lake Conroe residents. Many of the lake’s residents also flooded during Harvey and have indicated they would welcome a temporary reduction in lake level, as they too struggle to rebuild their lives and homes.

The Lake Houston Area Grass Roots Flood Prevention Initiative has invited LCA’s president to see the river siltation and devastation in this area caused by Harvey and the Lake Conroe release of 79,000 cubic feet per second. He has accepted. Let’s hope that what he sees changes his desire to fight a measure that could help so many people.

Posted on May 18, 2018 by Bob Rehak

262 days since Hurricane Harvey

Amy Slaughter’s Hurricane Harvey Experience

Amy Slaughter, her husband, two kids, a dog and a rabbit lived in a picturesque one-story house…until Hurricane Harvey. For the last eight months, she has lived with her husband and daughter in a trailer in their driveway while they struggle to rebuild their house. Their college-age son now lives with in-laws; it saves space in the trailer.

Home, Home on the Driveway! The Slaughter family has been living in a trailer for almost 9 months as they try to restore their home.

As I interview Amy in a local restaurant, she orders a root beer. She needs it, she says, to settle her stomach. She’s just come from court and is trying to squeeze me in before a conference call. As we talk, she constantly checks her phone for messages from contractors, architects and engineers. Such is the life of a professional mother in the Post-Harvey Reconstruction Era.

Matching shoes! Life is good!

As I listen to her tell me her story, I marvel at how energetic and positive she sounds. No doubt, this is a by-product of finally having found matching shoes and a working toaster oven.

“During the first days of the storm, we really weren’t worried,” says Slaughter. “Lake Conroe was beginning to release water, but there was no visible impact.”

“Ironically, relatives on Lake Conroe called us and said, ‘They’re releasing water from the dam up here and you have no idea how much!’ It was much more than the SJRA’s web site was showing. Evidently, the updates were way behind. But we still weren’t worried because we didn’t flood in 1994.”

“By noon, we began to think differently. We took three of our cars to Kingwood Park High School, just to be safe. My family talked me out of loading our computers into the cars because they thought someone would steal them. Big mistake. Everything I do is filed electronically with the courts. All the files on my laptop, memory cards, my home server … everything … was lost!”

“Our neighbors across the street are about a foot lower than we are. The creek behind them started to rise during the morning of the 28th. We went over to help them move their furniture upstairs. By 6 p.m., we had moved everything we could and water started to creep into their house.”

“On the news, they kept saying they were expecting the river to crest, but it didn’t; it kept rising. So we were caught off guard.”

“Then around midnight of the 28th, water began to creep into our house.” She looks whimsically inward at herself and giggles.

The Great Solo Cup Caper

“What?” I ask.

“We thought we might get only a couple inches, so we put solo cups under the legs of our wooden tables to protect them!” She smiles; You have to admire a woman who can laugh at disaster. Eventually, her home took on four feet of water.

The Slaughter’s gutted interior.

“We put chairs, computers, photo albums, and other junk up on tables and chests without realizing that everything we put up high would float and flip.”

The Pink Flamingo Flotilla

She laughs again as she flits from memory to random memory. “We evacuated as soon as the water started coming in the house. We brought our dog with us. But we left the rabbit in a cage up on the dining room table. When the water kept rising, I told my husband, ‘You have to get the rabbit.’”

“He and the dear friend who rescued us took an umbrella and waded back to the house through chest-deep water. Our rabbit was floating high above the table in her cage. They floated her cage right out.  Other belongings were rescued on a giant pink flamingo. Most people used john boats; we used a pink flamingo from our pool.”

Amy Slaughter shows how high the water reached in her entry way.

Then her mood turns somber again. “Once we rescued the rabbit, we realized we had at least four feet of water in our house. We were pretty much in shock.”

“What did you lose?” I ask.

“Furniture-wise and computer-wise, we lost everything. Wedding pictures, family albums, even the digital stuff on thumb drives. It’s all gone. But everybody is safe, nobody got hurt.”

“We were able to save most of our clothing with Pine Sol and Clorox. We saved most of the dishes. Ironically goblets levitated out of my grandmother’s china cabinet and floated all over the house. We found them down the hall, in different rooms. Everywhere.  Standing upright.”

“I’ll never leave this place.”

“Some friends suggested that we go to their home on Lake Livingston. It took three times longer than normal, but when we got there, we could get on the phone with our insurance company and FEMA. Watching all the news coverage from Livingston was terrifying. It was hard to see that and not be here.”

“When the river receded, we came back. We wanted to get into the house as quickly as we could. We lived with nearby relatives while we started gutting our house.”

“I didn’t cry for two weeks. I felt strongly that I couldn’t tell my children, ‘It’s just stuff,’ and not live by the motto myself.”

“When I got in there, I went from an attitude of looking at ‘what was lost’ to ‘what we could save.’ That really helped me get through the experience of gutting the house.”

“Everything in our home was sentimental. We had a lot of antiques we inherited. My grandmother grew up destitute. It killed me to put her sewing machine out at the curb, knowing how many dresses she had made for us growing up. To watch it rot there for three weeks was heart wrenching.”

“It was unbelievable, though, to be surrounded by people who came out of the woodwork to help. In Livingston, I was thinking, ‘Where can we live?’ But during the gutting of our house, people just came up and offered to help. Everyone pitched in. Strangers. Friends. Relatives. Customers. Clients. They brought food. They brought tools. And they didn’t ask for anything. After that, I thought to myself,  ‘I’ll never leave Kingwood.’”

A Court Appearance Reminiscent of “My Cousin Vinny”

“Then the exhaustion hit. My husband and I were both still trying to work. I had court dates. My clothing was all over Kingwood. At cleaners. With me. With my mother in law. It was pretty funny. The first time I went to court, I showed up in a denim skirt.  I approached the bailiff and said, I apologize ahead of time to the court. We got flooded and I don’t know where any of my clothes are.” Luckily, Slaughter had a judge who was more understanding than the one in the movie.

“Home, Home on the Driveway”

“Currently, we live in a travel trailer. We had looked for homes, apartments and hotels to rent, but everything was booked up. Friends opened their homes to us, but we wanted to stay near the house to deal with repairs. The trailer is not big enough for all of us; my son has to live with my sister in law.”

“The trailer is not like living in a drum; it’s like living in a drum SET,” Slaughter jokes. “When it rains, you hear all kinds of sounds. The rain makes one sound. The pine needles brushing up against the trailer make another. And then there’s the occasional cymbal crash when a pine cone hits the roof.”

“We store our clothes in the garage. It’s the mother of all walk-in closets right now.”

The mother of all walk in closets…Amy Slaughter’s garage.

“How do you cook?” I ask.

“The trailer does have a microwave. We have a grill with a burner on it. And we have a hot plate and a toaster oven. But mostly we don’t cook.”

Shrinking an Inch a Day

I shake my head, thinking back to college. I could handle life in a trailer then. Now, I’m not so sure. Amy Slaughter seems only slightly troubled, though.

“It’s not bad if you’re on vacation, but after eight months, it’s kind of getting old. At first you’re so grateful to have it that you overlook the inconveniences. Then after about a month, your thoughts start to go in the opposite direction. It feels like it’s shrinking an inch a day.” I nod; I have a pair of jeans like that.

Camp Chairs and an Air Mattress for Watching TV

“Now that the house is dried out, I’m starting to use it as a workshop to restore my grandmother’s furniture,” says Amy Slaughter. “We have a back porch. We put a TV out there. We have camp chairs and an air mattress for watching the TV. That’s really our living room. But it’s getting hot now. So we may be spending more time in the trailer.”

Third-World Living

“The shower in the trailer is about the size of a bucket. It’s functional and would work. But it’s tiny, so we shower in the house. One of the bathrooms had a shower where we only tore out the glass and the backside of two walls. We put tarps along the wood studs to hold the water in and propped up the one wall with a wire shelving unit and bungee cords. It’s definitely Third-World living.”

The Slaughter shower. Makeshift, but still bigger than their trailer’s shower.

I think to myself, “This lady wins awards for creativity, but I doubt she will pass the plumbing inspection.”

“Purchasing the House We Almost Paid Off.”

I ask how Harvey affected Amy Slaughter’s family financially. Without missing a beat, she says, “We get the privilege of purchasing the house we had almost paid off.” I ask for an explanation. “Our options were: sell and move; put it right back together again; or build up. We didn’t want to move. And we didn’t want to flood … ever again. So we decided to build up. But contractors told us it would be less expensive to wipe the slab and start over than build on top of what we had.”

“How much longer will it take?” I ask.

“Finding a contractor to do the whole thing is difficult. Everybody is booked. We’re in a financial quandary. Flood insurance will only go so far. It will replace what we had, but not what we feel we need to build to be safe. Before this, we had a house that never flooded and we want to get back to that.”

“What are your biggest concerns at the moment?” I ask.

Concerns Looking Forward

“There’s a concern that we won’t be able to sell the house. How many people want a one-story house where you have to climb the stairs to get in?”

“I’m also afraid that Kingwood will be considered a lost cause at some point by politicians. You’ve seen it happen with Forest Cove. ‘Oh, that area floods now, so we should just buy out the owners and wipe it all out.’”

“Meanwhile, you have developers who are buying golf courses, like Forest Cove’s. I’ve heard it was bought and is about to be turned into homesites. That scares me. They’re going to build up higher and that’s just going to send water toward the rest of us. If the politicians don’t start limiting development like that, it will turn the rest of us into a financial sink hole.”

“If you could say one thing to the mayor, what would it be?”

Amy Slaughter pauses a long time, then…

“Come try to sleep through a rain storm in my travel trailer!”

“I worry whether I should put pontoons it,” she says doing her best Sarah Silverman imitation. Then seriously, “It won’t take a Harvey at this point to flood Kingwood again. I know they are committed to dredging the river, but the reality is they haven’t solidified any workable plan yet.”

And with that, Amy Slaughter excuses herself and sprints off to her conference call.

Interview by Bob Rehak

Posted May 15, 2018

259 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Conroe Association Announces It Will Fight Temporary 2-Foot Lowering of Lake During Hurricane Season

A political storm is brewing with the Lake Conroe Association.

On April 26, in response to pleas from Lake Houston residents and a directive from the governor (to protect downstream residents from flooding), the SJRA board voted to lower the level of Lake Conroe temporarily. The lowering would amount to one foot during the rainiest months in spring and up to two feet during the peak of hurricane season.

The lowering would help provide a buffer against future storms by creating extra capacity within the lake to absorb rainfall before the flood gates must be opened. Thus, it will help protect Lake Houston area residents from the potential for another massive release like we saw during Harvey. However…

In an open letter posted on May 11, the president of the Lake Conroe Association says his group will NOT FIGHT a 1-foot reduction; however, he claims it MUST FIGHT a 2-foot reduction. He makes three arguments; two feet would, he says: 1) make shallow docks unusable, 2) harm tourism, and 3) reduce values of Lake Conroe homes. He says, “Families expect to enjoy their investment without SJRA and The City of Houston … ‘changing the rules.’”

The Houston Chronicle summed it up this way.

The Lake Houston Area Grass Roots Flood Prevention initiative has contacted the LCA president. We have offered to give him a tour of the devastation in the Humble/Kingwood area first hand.

TxDoT hopes to repair damage to the I-69 bridge by September, more than a year after Harvey. In the meantime, residents endure massive traffic jams. Photo taken on May 13, 2018.

Our hope is that once he sees what residents here are still trying recover from, he will be less inclined to fight the lowering of Lake Conroe by that extra foot during hurricane season. Stay tuned for more developments.

Posted May 15, 2018

259 Days Since Hurricane Harvey

 

 

Outlook for Tropical Disturbance: Texas Clear, But Not Florida

National Hurricane Center has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook this afternoon for the area of disturbed weather over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

An area of showers and thunderstorms has become slightly better organized today. Global forecast models continue to suggest that this area will gradually develop into a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico sometime between Monday and Wednesday.

A broad surface low or elongated trough is slowly forming on the eastern flank of an upper level trough located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models suggest the broad surface low will gradually intensify and drift N/NNE along the eastern flank of the upper level trough over the next 72 hours.

There remains some uncertainty on whether the system is more sub-tropical in nature (with winds and rain well away from the center) or more tropical in nature (with strongest winds and rains closer to the center). The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) outlook shows more of a tropical system. ECMWF predicts a surface low of 1003-1005mb making landfall over the Florida panhandle by the middle of this week.

Regardless of development or not, heavy rainfall and squalls will be impacting much of Florida over the next several days and spreading NNW along the NE/N Gulf of Mexico coast, generally east of Mississippi by the middle of the week.

The topical disturbance likely will come inland over the Florida Panhandle later this week. It is not currently a threat to the Texas Coast.

Currently the National Hurricane Center gives this system a 30% chance of development in the next 48 hours and 40% over the next 5 days. Regardless of development or not, heavy rainfall and squalls will be impacting much of Florida over the next several days and spreading NNW along the NE/N Gulf of Mexico coast generally east of Mississippi by the middle of the week.

At this time no significant impacts from this system are expected along the upper Texas coast. Surface winds Tuesday-Thursday may shift back to the ENE/NE, allowing an even drier air mass to advect into the region from the NE. Afternoon high temperatures should rise into the low to mid 90’s. Given the likely small scale nature of any system, do not expect any increase in tides of seas over the NW Gulf of Mexico.

By Jeff Lindner, Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist

Harris County Flood Control District

Posted 5/13/18, 4:55 p.m CDT

257 Days after Hurricane Harvey

New River Gage at I-69 Will Measure Flow Accurately Despite Sediment

A new ADVM river gage is being installed at US59 at the West Fork of the San Jacinto River to more accurately predict floods.

The river gage at US59 and the West Fork of the San Jacinto River is being upgraded. A new Acoustic Doppler Velocity Meter (ADVM) should be operational by Monday, May 14, 2018, according to Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control.

Concerns About Previous Gage

Some flood forecasting professionals suspected that the previous meter was not accurately predicting flood height because of several factors at this location. They felt sedimentation, scouring at the base of the bridge, backwater from Lake Houston, and unsteady stream flow all affected the “rating curve.”

How Rating Curves Work

Rating curves show the correlation between the river discharge (flow volume as measured in cubic feet per second) and the river stage (height). Velocity multiplied by the area of the cross section of the river for any given height equals the discharge rate. Such rates are expressed on a mathematical curve that correlates height and discharge.

These curves can change frequently, especially on a river where both sedimentation and scour can result in a change in the amount of flow at a location, as it does at US59.

Need for More Accurate Gage

One meteorologist suspected that – because the rating curve had shifted – we were seeing higher river levels with less water than pre-Harvey. That impacted the forecast accuracy for the Humble gage. A river forecaster noted that in the last two flood events, initial forecasts were “underdone” another indicator of a shifted rating curve.

According to the U.S. Geological Service (USGS), ADVMs are indispensable for backwater-influenced gages. The USGS in recent years has built hundreds of index-velocity gages with an ADVM for the measurement of streamflow. They are especially valuable in reaches where unsteady (varied, nonuniform) streamflow is prevalent that prevents the development of a conventional stage-discharge rating.

ADVMs deliver real-time flow data that would help us better understand what is going on with the rating curve and have more accurate forecasts for the Humble/Kingwood area.

An ADVM measures water velocity by using the Doppler principle applied to sound transmitted under water. Acoustic Doppler systems rely on SONAR, which uses sound waves to determine the distance to targets. They bounce acoustic signals of a known frequency off sediment in the water and measure the shift in frequency when the signals return. By measuring the time between the original pulse and the return signal, forecasters can compute the velocity of flow.

Velocity is crucial in computing the volume of water flowing past a measurement station. River forecasters use the formula:

Q = VA where

  • Q = quantity (cubic feet/second)
  • V = average velocity for the cross section (ft/s)
  • A = the area of the cross section of the river.

The faster the velocity for any given cross section, the more water that is flowing past that point.

Lindner cautions that although the new gage will begin collecting data immediately, it will take the river rising and falling several times to get enough data to accurately predict flow rates at different levels.

“A river is always in flux,” says Lindner. “The USGS has already published a new post-Harvey rating which takes into account sedimentation from Harvey near this location.”

Dredging along the West Fork would likely change that rating curve again. “The rating will have frequent changes over the next several months, as the shape of the river evolves both from natural and man-made causes,” said Lindner.

USGS has already sent the new post-Harvey rating for US59 at the West Fork to the West Gulf River Forecast Center to incorporate into their modeling efforts.

For those interested in learning more about gages and flood forecasting, the USGS has an excellent high-level, non-technical intro to measuring stream discharge. Scientists and engineers may be interested in a more technical discussion of the advantage of ADVM’s in developing more reliable real-time discharge estimates.

Posted by Bob Rehak, May 13, 2018

257 Days Since Hurricane Harvey

Unsettled Weather In the Gulf

Harris County Flood Control District just issued an alert about unsettled weather in the Gulf. Chances of it developing into a subtropical storm system are less than 30% at this time. But nature just issued a wake-up call to get those hurricane kits ready. Here is the exact text of the alert.

A weak low pressure center…likely sub-tropical in nature…may develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week.

Overnight an area of showers and thunderstorms have developed over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on the eastern side of a developing upper level trough over the central Gulf. Upper level winds are currently unfavorable for the continued development of any sort of surface circulation given strong wind shear aloft. However as this system drifts NNW over the next few days conditions may become slightly more favorable for the formation of either a surface or mid level center near/under the upper level trough. If this were to happen the system would likely develop some sub-tropical characteristics with most of the wind and rainfall over the eastern flank of the feature. Some of the forecast models have been showing off and on some sort of sub-tropical feature moving inland over the northern US Gulf coast by the middle of next week.

At this time development chances of a sub-tropical storm system over the NE Gulf of Mexico appear less than 30% and the formation of any “true” tropical system is unlikely. Given the current forecast model solutions a dry air mass will likely remain in place over SE TX and surface winds may become more ENE/NE by mid week should some sort of surface feature develop likely resulting in some very warm conditions by the middle of next week.

At this time no impacts are expected across SE TX or the coastal waters from anything sort of sub-tropical develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Lindner, Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist

Harris County Flood Control District

Posted May 12 at 11:15 a.m. CDT

256 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Newly Renovated Kings Cove Luxury Apartments Sparkle in Kings Harbor

Kelsey Krueger, Kings Cove property manager, by the pool – one of the apartment community’s many amenities.

Eight months after Hurricane Harvey, the luxury 192-unit Kings Cove apartment community in Kings Harbor announced its Grand Re-opening. Every one of the 64 ground-floor units, the Club House, the Fitness Center, the Office Complex, and garages have been totally refurbished.

Kreuger shows off the newly renovated fitness center, which features more than $50,000 of exercise equipment.

“We are proud to say that we are the first luxury apartment to re-open in Kings Harbor. We updated all of the living spaces with full amenities,” said Kelsey Krueger, who is both the onsite manager and a resident of the community. “The restoration is remarkable. Everything on the ground floor is brand new with fresh attention to every detail.”

“The owners have demonstrated their commitment to the property and all of my tenants and fellow residents,” continued Krueger.

The complex has several incentives to entice people to return. “We are offering one month free plus move-in specials,” says Krueger.

“The grand re-opening of Kings Cove is already bringing in new residents who are helping to reinvigorate and revitalize the entire Kings Harbor area. Restaurants are coming back, too; Sharkey’s may be back by July and Raffa’s by August,” said Krueger.

For more information about the apartments and/or leasing, email Krueger, call (281) 360-1400, or visit 4920 Magnolia Cove Drive in Kingwood. The office is open until 6 p.m. daily.

Posted May 11, 2018
255 days since Hurricane Harvey

New River Gages Will Improve Forecast Accuracy and Warning Time

New upstream river gages will improve accuracy of forecasts and provide more warning time in advance of floods.

The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) will begin installing several new river gages this month. They should improve the accuracy of forecasts and the warning time we receive in advance of floods. HCFCD plans to install four new gages upstream of the Humble/Kingwood area and one in Lake Houston. In addition, one of HCFCD’s current gages already in Kingwood will be replaced and relocated to a new position.

New Locations for River Gages

According to Jeff Lindner, Director Hydrologic Operations, Division/Meteorologist of HCFCD, the five new river gages will be installed at:

  • West Fork of the San Jacinto River at SH 99
  • Peach Creek at FM 2090
  • East Fork of the San Jacinto at 2090
  • Caney Creek at FM 2090
  • FM 1960 over Lake Houston

Replacement for Kingwood Country Club Gage

Lindner also says that an existing river gage on the West Fork of the San Jacinto at Kingwood Country Club will be replaced and move about a mile downstream to the West Lake Houston Parkway bridge. HCFCD will remove the Kingwood Country Club gage once the West Lake Houston Parkway gage is fully operational. The country club gage has had reliability problems. Historical data from the country club gage will also be migrated to the database associated with the West Lake Houston Parkway gage.

Linked to Harris County Flood Warning System

The new river gages will give forecasters a more complete picture of what is happening within the San Jacinto watershed during floods. They will be tied into the Harris County Flood Warning System, which shows rainfall totals, channel status and water levels at different locations. The additional gages should also play a role in future enhancements of the flood warning system, such as near real-time inundation mapping and roadway flooding.

Posted by Bob Rehak on May 10, 2018 

254 Days since Hurricane Harvey