Debris Removal from Lake Houston Begins

Debris removal from Lake Houston has begun. On Sunday, May 27, I received a brief note from Keith Jordan, a Kingwood resident who has been active in flood recovery. His note said, “Toured the river today. Saw two barges with cranes picking up large piles of tree debris along the banks, but no dredging occurring.”

A few hours later, I received another note from Dianne Lansden, co-chair of the Lake Houston Area Grass Roots Flood Prevention Initiative. She forwarded a newsletter to me from State Representative Dan Huberty. The newsletter quoted statements from Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner and Houston City Council Member Dave Martin about debris removal.

Removing Dead Trees

Turner stated, “I’m pleased to inform you that debris removal operations on the Lake Houston Reservoir began last week with the goal of preventing flooding and improving the use of the lake for recreational purposes and as key water supply source.”

The flood associated with Hurricane Harvey destroyed thousands of trees, which are now being removed from Lake Houston.

“Houston debris contractor DRC Emergency Services, LLC is performing the work with four barges and is expected to add two more by June 1, 2018. There are an estimated 75,000 to 150,000 cubic yards of debris in the lake because of Hurricane Harvey, according to the City’s debris monitoring operator, Tetra Tech. Removal of debris will reach 2,000 cubic yards per day at the height of operations,” said Turner.

At that rate and depending on the actual amount of debris recovered, the project could last anywhere from approximately five to 10 weeks.

During floods, dead trees like those shown above can wash downstream. The debris can then collect at at bridges and dams, impeding the flow water. as Kingwood resident Dave Seitzinger showed. Such piles of trees can work much like beaver dams.

Separate from Army Corps Dredging Project

Apparently, this project is separate from and in addition to the dredging project that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is studying.

Mayor Turner continued, “This project, when combined with the dredging of the San Jacinto River, provides that residents’ tax dollars are being used in a most beneficial manner to protect their properties from high water.”

Temporary Lowering of Lake Houston For Debris Removal

Dave Martin, District E Houston City Council Member said, “This week, residents can expect to see the level of Lake Houston reduced due to needed maintenance for the health of the Lake Houston Spillway Dam. In order to conduct this work the Coastal Water Authority will need to reduce the level of the Lake from 42.36 ft to 42.0 ft. This reduction in lake level will only be temporary while maintenance is occurring, and residents should not be alarmed. The purpose of the maintenance is to allow crews to remove debris that is currently sitting on top of the dam.”

Progress!

Posted on May 28, 2018 by Bob Rehak

272 Days Since Hurricane Harvey

The Nine-Month Anniversary of Harvey

Today marks 270 days since Harvey devastated one of the most beautiful communities in America. This weekend is the nine-month anniversary, the official start of yet another hurricane season, and Memorial Day. So it seems only fitting to look back.

The street in front of Jennifer Trimble’s home as she and her son were being rescued by boat.

Paul Margaritis, a friend and neighbor sent me the video below as a reminder.

WoodsEstatesDebris

It shows a one-block drive down Woods Estates in Kings Forest (one block west of Kingwood High School and north of Kingwood Drive). However, it could be any street in the Lake Houston Area shortly after Harvey. I remember not even being able to get into many neighborhoods because of all the debris cascading into streets. Foster’s Mill, Kingwood Lakes, and parts of Kings Point come to mind. Debris and vehicles completely filled the streets and blocked traffic.

Nine months later, the heartbreak has gone indoors, but it’s still there. You can see it in campers parked in driveways – where people are living as they complete repairs. You can see it in “Now Open” signs that have just appeared on retail establishments. You can see it in building permits, dumpsters, contractor pickups, and port-o-lets still occupying people’s yards.

Home, Home on the Driveway! The Slaughter family has been living in a trailer for 9 months as they try to restore their home.

And all too frequently, you can see scenes, such as this – a grim reminder of the recovery that just never seems to end.

Repair work continues at the home of a Kingwood business owner who has been living out of a hotel for nine months now.

Most people that I talk to who were flooded still only live in parts of their homes – if they’re in their homes at all. If you ask when they expect their homes to be fully restored, they may smile and say, “By the end of summer.” But every time a contractor fails to show up for a week, they pray it won’t be the summer of 2020.

This is why we can never forget the destruction caused by Harvey and why we must press the fight for flood mitigation measures.

The cost of mitigation will be a tiny fraction of the cost of damages from flooding.

Had we followed the recommendations of engineers after 1994 and Allison, perhaps fewer people would have had their lives turned upside down by Harvey.

It’s both ironic and fitting that the 9-month anniversary of Harvey should happen on Memorial Day weekend.

Posted on May 26 by Bob Rehak

270 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lowering Lake Conroe: How much is enough?

The president of the Lake Conroe Association has said the group will fight a reduction of their lake to 199 mean feet above sea level (msl) during September. Remember, SJRA normally maintains Lake Conroe at 201 msl.

“The fight can be avoided, and relief can be felt in the Lake Houston area, by accepting a more reasonable approach of temporarily lowering Lake Conroe by not more than 1 foot for flood control,” said Mike Bleier, at the bottom of his post: http://www.lakeconroeassociation.com/the-lca-will-lead-the-fight-against-lower-lake-levels/

Is Reducing the Lake Level an Extra Foot Worth the Fight?

Readers have asked, rightly so, “Is this worth the fight? How much would we really gain, especially considering that evaporation already reduces the lake  to 199.4 msl on average during September?”

Depending on your perspective (and how far from the lake you live), you might say:

“That extra foot is not worth the fight, because nature will already likely give us most of it.”

Or…

“If another massive release from the dam is necessary, that extra foot, in fact, every inch, will save more homes and/or give us more time to evacuate. We need every inch and every second we can get in an emergency, especially considering that dredging has not yet started.”

Do you have your hurricane kit prepared? Do you have flood insurance yet?

The Value of an Extra Foot of Buffer

The extra foot would undoubtedly save some homes on the margin of the flood, because flood gates would not have to open as wide or as long or even at all. However, it’s impossible to precisely calculate how many homes would be saved.  That’s because of all the sediment clogging the river and other unknowable factors such as rainfall distribution and duration, and ground saturation. However, it is possible to calculate how much time we could gain to evacuate safely.

How Much Time We Would Gain Before Flood Gates Had To Open?

Let’s compute it:

  1. Lake Conroe covers 21,000 acres.
  2. A one-foot reduction in its level equals 21,000 acre feet.
  3. But flow and discharge rates are measured in cubic feet per second (CFS).
  4. So let’s figure out what that would be, given a rainfall as intense as Harvey’s.
  5. Converting acre feet to cubic feet…
  6. There are 43,560 cubic feet in one acre foot.
  7. 21,000 x 43,560 = a total of 914,760,000 cubic feet being debated
  8. The maximum inflow rate to the lake during Harvey was 130,000 cfs.
  9. 914,760,000 cf / 130,000 cfs inflow = 7,037 seconds
  10. 7037 seconds = 117 minutes = approximately 2 hours
  11. A one foot reduction would provide an extra two-hour buffer against a rainfall as intense as Harvey’s.
  12. How much buffer is there normally?
  13. Gates must open when water level increases 18 inches above 201 feet.
  14. Without lowering level of lake, we have a 3-hour buffer before gates must open.
  15. Lowering the lake level one foot means there’s a 5-hour buffer before gates must open.
  16. Lowering the lake level two feet provides a 7-hour buffer before the gates must open.

Jace Houston, general manager of the SJRA, confirmed these calculations. He also stated that they were generally consistent with the rate of rise that SJRA saw in Lake Conroe during Harvey.

Finally, Houston pointed out that few storms are as intense as Harvey, and that with smaller rainfalls, you would gain proportionally more time. For instance, half the inflow rate would double the buffer time.

Those smaller storms have a much higher probability of occurring. However, a 20-inch rain falling over a two day period would be classified as yet another 500-year storm.

In fact, as I write these words, a tropical system is brewing in the Gulf. The amount of expected rainfall associated with it is 15-20 inches at this moment. If it actually rains 20 inches, that would be exactly half the amount Harvey dumped on IAH.

According to Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control, this storm is expect to slow near the cost and dump up to 20 inches of rain between NE Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Keep in mind: that storm is NOT currently predicted to affect the Houston area. Forecasters believe it will make landfall between SE Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. I’m using this only as a hypothetical example.

So, in our hypothetical example, let’s assume the inflow rate to Lake Conroe is exactly half of Harvey’s. That would give us twice as much time – 14 hours as opposed to seven to prepare. What would you need to do during that time if you were in an area that could flood?

  • Move your belongings to a higher floor if you have one?
  • Gather up your valuables, albums, computers, documents, medications, insurance policies, guns, etc.?
  • Refill prescriptions if you’re low?
  • Pack enough food and clothes for a week?
  • Gas up your vehicle with thousands of other people?
  • Pack up your vehicle?
  • Collect your children, elderly relatives, pets and all their medications and valuables?
  • Move additional vehicles to higher ground?
  • Find a friend or hotel who lives on higher ground who is willing to take in your family?
  • Investigate escape routes when the power may be off and trees may be blocking roads?
  • Move all that toxic stuff under your sinks and in your garage up into your attic?
  • Shut off your electricity?
  • Warn friends, neighbors, and relatives?
  • Let them know your evacuation plans?
  • Find an ATM with money left in it?
  • Beat the traffic out of town?

Sounds like a pretty full day to me! Granted, you might have a little more time because it takes water a while to get from Conroe to Lake Houston. But you might also have a little less time, because sand blocking the river could cause water here to rise faster, regardless of Lake Conroe releases.

So is that extra foot worth fighting for? In my opinion, yes.

It would let Lake Conroe absorb more water, decreasing the chances that they would have to open their flood gates. And if they had to open their flood gates, it would delay the opening, giving you more time to prepare to evacuate and get to higher ground.

Remember, if the rainfall rate was heavier, you would have even less time.

I didn’t have to evacuate during Harvey. The flood stopped one house away from me. So I would like to hear from those who WERE forced to evacuate? Do you think 7-14 hours would have helped? How would your life have changed if you had had that much time to prepare?

Posted May 25, 2018 by Bob Rehak

269 Days Since Hurricane Harvey

 

Results of May SJRA Board Meeting and Decision to Temporarily Lower the Level of Lake Conroe

At its May Board meeting, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) chose not to reconsider its April decision to lower the level of Lake Conroe temporarily at the peak of hurricane season. The board also chose not to put reconsideration of the resolution on its agenda for next month. This now puts the decision about whether to lower Lake Conroe temporarily into the hands of the City of Houston and the Texas Council on Environmental Quality (TCEQ).

Protest by Lake Conroe Association

The Lake Conroe Association protested last month’s board resolution to temporarily lower the level of Lake Conroe by up to two feet in September. The resolution was intended to help protect Lake Houston area residents from flooding until other mitigation measures, such as dredging, can be implemented. The Governor specifically directed the SJRA to make such protection part of its mission.

However, the president of the Lake Conroe Association (LCA), Mike Bleier, urged the board to reconsider its decision and was given unlimited time to present his case. Bleier spoke for more than half an hour. Bleier’s main concerns were the potential impacts on recreation, home values and businesses around Lake Conroe. Several other members of the association spoke in support of reconsideration.

Kingwood Residents Speak in Favor of Lowering

More than a dozen Kingwood residents also attended the meeting. Four spoke in favor of letting the motion stand.

Guy Sconzo, former superintendent of the Humble Independent School District, thanked the board for its decision to lower the lake. Then he talked about the impact of flooding on Lake Houston area infrastructure. His talk  addressed massive losses by the school district, Kingwood College, and more.

TxDoT hopes to repair damage to the I-69 bridge by September, more than a year after Harvey. In the meantime, residents endure massive traffic jams.

Robert Westover talked about a flooded retirement community where several elderly residents died due to injuries incurred during high-water rescues and related stress.

Amy Slaughter complemented the board for its decision to lower the lake and explained how it would help insure that people had time to rebuild while other flood mitigation measures were completed.

Dennis Albrecht, who owns homes on both Lake Houston and Lake Conroe also spoke. Albrecht compared the relative impacts of flooding and lower lake levels on home values. Albrecht pointed out that the value of his Lake Conroe home has increased steadily despite lower lake levels at times. He also pointed out the devastating impact of the flood on the value of his Lake Houston home. “There’s no comparison,” said Albrecht.

Many other Kingwood residents attended the meeting to support the SJRA Board’s decision.

When is a lowering not really a lowering?

Bleier said that his members would accept a one foot lowering, but not two. Several Kingwood residents pointed out that evaporation already typically reduces the level of the lake by more than a foot and a half during September. The LCA’s decision to accept a one-foot lowering was, therefore, actually no concession at all; they would likely give up nothing.

Assuming average loss due to evaporation, the actual lowering would amount to only 4.8 inches.

Dianne Lansden, co-chair of the Lake Houston Area Grass Roots flood prevention initiative, and I gave Bleier a tour of the devastation in Humble and Kingwood yesterday. After a two-hour tour, while professing to be sensitive to the needs of downstream residents, Bleier proceeded to tell us the concerns of upstream residents. Among them: his members might not be able to take their boats to lakefront restaurants. (Editorial comment: Spooky shades of Marie-Antoinette!)

Not All Lake Conroe Residents Support LCA

To be sure, not all Lake Conroe residents agree with Bleier. Hundreds of homes on Lake Conroe also flooded during Harvey and reportedly most of the owners also favor a temporary seasonal lowering of the lake level, according to SJRA Board Chairman Lloyd Tisdale.

Lake Lowering Could Still be Nixed

Despite the SJRA board’s decision this morning, Lake Conroe still may not be lowered. To take effect, both the City of Houston and the TCEQ must also agree to lower the lake. The City owns two thirds of the water in the lake. The TCEQ must decide whether any lowering will count as an emergency release or be deducted from the City’s draw rights. If not considered an emergency release, the City may not support the decision to lower the lake.

Uncertainty Surrounding Weather Outlook

Some forecasters are beginning to worry about a possible drought. As of May 22, Drought.gov pointed out that abnormal dryness is currently affecting approximately 13,612,000 people in Texas, which is about 54% of the state’s population.

However, NOAA issued an outlook saying that 2018 will be a slightly above average hurricane season.

And, Thursday night, the National Hurricane Center predicted a 90% chance of tropical development in the Gulf this weekend.  That system could dump up to ten inches of rain on neighboring Louisiana and other gulf states.

How a 10-Inch Rain Could Affect Kingwood

If we got ten inches of rain from a storm, such as the one entering the Gulf this weekend, that could constitute a 50-year rain at a time when the river is clogged with sand. That could produce a higher-than-normal flood for that amount of rainfall, and re-flood parts of Kingwood and Humble before dredging could even begin.

Personal Recommendation

Personally, I favor lowering the level of the lake. The actual amount of manual lowering, assuming this is an average year, would be only 4.8 inches. Even in the depths of the 2011 drought, the loss of 4.8 inches would have not have been disastrous.

There’s little chance, despite the hyperbolic rhetoric from LCA that 4.8 inches will destroy the Lake Conroe area. And it could help protect the Lake Houston area from another disaster.

In fact, in eight of the last 18 years, Lake Conroe has lost more than two feet of water due to evaporation and the lake is still one of the state’s most desirable destinations for tourists.

LCA Vows to Escalate the Fight

LCA has vowed to press its fight with the City and TCEQ and claims to have enough political support lined up to kill the proposal to lower Lake Conroe temporarily.

So get involved. Urge the TCEQ, Mayor and City Council to TEMPORARILY lower Lake Conroe  until other mitigation measures, such as dredging, take effect.

Posted on 5/25/18 by Bob Rehak

269 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Rainfall Rates, Durations and Frequencies for This Area

The upper Texas Coast is famous for intense, frequent rainfall. Sometimes, like during Harvey, rainfall can last for days. So how do you know when you’re experiencing something truly out of the ordinary? Consult the table below. This table relates three factors: rainfall total, rainfall duration, and rainfall classification. From this chart, you can see that all it will take for us to have our fourth five-hundred year storm in four years is about an inch an hour for 18 hours, or about two inches per hour for six hours.

Rainfall Rates, Intensities and Frequencies for The Woodlands Area on the West Fork, near Humble and Kingwood, Texas

What are the odds of getting hit with three 500-year storms in three years (which we did in 2015, 2016 and 2017)? One might think they are 1 in 125 million which was computed by multiplying 1/500 * 1/500 * 1/500.

The odds of getting four 500-year storms in four years would then SEEM astronomical. Using a similar formula, you would arrive at 1 in 62.5 billion!

But that is not necessarily correct because with that calculation you are inferring that the rainfall events are connected. But they actually are not connected. Just because we had a 500-year rainfall event last year, does not mean we may not see another 500- year rainfall event this year.

EVERY year we have a 0.2% chance or 1 in 500 chances of seeing a 500-year flood for a specific location.

This assumes that the odds are no greater in one year than any other year, and that each event is independent of the others.

How do mathematicians compute the probabilities of these rare events? Obviously, it isn’t through observation. The earth is only about 4.5 billion years old. Humans have only walked the earth for about 200,000 years. And reliable rainfall records in this part of the world only go back a little more than a 100 years.

Probabilities for rare events, such as hundred- and five-hundred year storms are based on a branch of statistics called EVA, extreme value analysis. EVA tries to calculate the probabilities of unobserved events by looking at the distribution of observed events.

But all this technical brilliance is based on one particularly flawed assumption that never gets communicated to the public. The assumption is that for the period under examination, nothing changes. Mathematicians even have a word for it: stationarity. It means underlying factors can neither increase, nor decrease.

Duh! Nothing changes in 500 years? In Houston?

Obviously, those folks never rode around for a day in a Ford F350 with a Houston developer.

In 1900, Houston had a population of 44,000 and was the 85th largest city in the U.S.

Today, the Houston region has a population of more than 6.9 million. That’s growth of 157X in a little more than a century. And that’s a lot more concrete than even Bubba and Jim Bob together  could spit on in a lifetime.

Diane Cooper, a Kingwood resident with more than 20 years of forecasting experience for the National Weather Service points out a couple other problems with these projections. First, the data is very, very, very thin and rarely updated.

Second, the probabilities are computed for a specific point, not a city, county, region or country. Storms know no geographic boundaries.

In fact, she says, it’s a little bit misleading to say that Houston got hit by three 500-year storms in three years. That’s because any given storm may not have equal intensity over all parts of the city. A storm may have had 500-year intensity on the north side. but only 100-year intensity on the south. Following the same line of logic, but in a different direction, if you expanded the boundaries out to the entire U.S., we might have multiple 500-year storms in one year (each in different places).

Cooper also points out that 500-year storms do not necessarily produce 500-year floods. They are two different beasts.

If the ground is dry, say from a drought, a large percentage of a heavy rain might be absorbed, yielding less than a 500-year flood. Conversely, if the ground is saturated and we get a 100-year rain, get out the oars and inner tubes.

Even though charts like the one above have more uncertainty than a dart player who just downed a fifth of Jack Daniels, they do put big storms in perspective.

By the way, the term “500-year flood” originated in the 1960s when the National Flood Insurance Program was being developed. At the time, people intended it to mean “a storm with a .002% chance of happening in any given year.” However, over the years, the meaning became distorted. Because it had a 1 in 500 chance of occurring each year, insurers started calling it a 500-year storm. People mistook that to mean “the interval between intense storms.”

More on that in a future post and how to calculate the chances of getting hit by a monster storm during the life of your 30-year mortgage. Hint: call your insurance agent now!

Posted May 23, 2018 by Bob Rehak

267 days since Hurricane Harvey

 

Where did all the sand come from?

Our San Jacinto River is clogged with sand that impedes the flow of water and contributes to flooding. Where did all the sand come from? When? Under what conditions? Are there ways to reduce the volume of sand coming downstream? As the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers prepares to dredge the San Jacinto for the first time, we should ask ourselves these questions.

The river has eight tributaries that affect the Lake Houston Area: Spring Creek, Cypress Creek, Lake Creek and the West Fork on the west; and Peach Creek, Caney Creek, Luce Bayou and the East Fork on the east. All produce sand naturally.

They send sand downstream at different rates at different times, depending on the location of rainfall within the watershed, the volume of flow, the speed of flow, and management of the flood gates at Lake Conroe.

San Jacinto River Watershed Map. Tributaries affecting the Humble/Kingwood area include: Cypress Creek, Spring Creek, Lake Creek, West Fork, Peach Creek, Caney Creek, East Fork, and Luce Bayou.

Other factors include the percentage of sand content in soil and the health of vegetation along stream banks. Vegetation retains and slows runoff, reducing erosion.

 

The Natural Resources Conservation Service of the USDA produced this soil map of Montgomery County. Blue colors indicate highest percentage of sand; red colors indicate the lowest. Note huge concentrations of sand on Spring Creek and West Fork.

The map above helps us understand why so many sand miners chose to locate along the West Fork – lots of sand. The West Fork is also sparsely populated compared to Spring Creek as you can see in the satellite image below. It shows the sand mines around the Humble/Kingwood area highlighted in red. One is located on Caney Creek (right); the rest are on the West Fork (left).

Satellite image from Google Earth with sand mines around Kingwood outlined in red. Image dated 10/28/2017.

While sand has been coming down the river and streams for thousands of years, rapid sedimentation in the West Fork between Humble and Kingwood didn’t become an issue until the growth of sand mining on the West Fork in the late 1980s.

Notice how most of the areas in red above are filled with natural vegetation in the 1985 image below.

Satellite photo of Kingwood area in 1985 before rapid growth of sand mining. Compare areas in red to previous image.

Today, mines expose approximately 20 square miles of loose sand on the West Fork alone between I-45 and US59.

Aerial photo taken on 9/14/18 of sand mining operation on West Fork.

Dikes around the mines are supposed to keep sand from being discharged into the river. However, Harvey inundated the mines.

Harvey’s floodwaters topped the dikes of sand mines. Image taken 8/30/2017.

An analysis of satellite images before, during and after Harvey shows massive loss of sand from stockpiles within many of these mines.

During floods like Harvey when the SJRA releases water from Lake Conroe, dikes are overtopped and broken. I suspect that sand then comes down the West Fork in tremendous volumes that dwarf Spring Creek’s contribution.

To test this hypothesis, I looked at USGS flow data for both tributaries. I also reviewed all my aerial photos and Google Earth’s historical images.

Under normal conditions, Spring Creek flows at 80 cubic feet per second (cfs) and the West Fork of the San Jacinto at 150 cfs. These are not sufficient flow rates to suspend sediment the size of sand. (For an excellent discussion of sedimentation, see Fundamentals of Sediment Transport at Fondriest.com.)

However, during Harvey, Sring Creek flowed at 78,200 cfs; and the West Fork at  55,000 cfs. Then the San Jacinto River Authority opened the gates at Lake Conroe. That flipped the ratio dramatically. With the flood gates open, Spring Creek still flowed at 78,200 cfs, but the West Fork increased to 130,000 cfs. Flow rates that high can (and did) move houses off their foundations.

Four hundred and fifty aerial photos in the gallery of this web site show a bright, white trail of sand between sand mines and the sand clogging the East and West Forks around Humble and Kingwood. Flood waters swept that sand from a to b. The giant sand deposits at River Grove Park and elsewhere grew exponentially during recent floods.

This tells me that when discussing the origins of the sand, we need to primarily evaluate the river during floods. More water is moving faster under greater pressure. That’s when erosion and deposition happen quickly. That’s when the river overtops and ruptures dikes. And that’s when twenty additional square miles of exposed sand surface on the West Fork make their major contribution to our sediment and flooding problems.

We can’t control sand coming down rivers naturally. However, with better sand mining practices, we may be able to reduce mankind’s contribution to our flooding problem, not to mention the related cleanup costs borne by taxpayers.

In upcoming posts, I will discuss my research into sand mining best practices.

Posted May 22, 2018 by Bob Rehak

266 Days since Hurricane Harvey

New Water-On-The-Go App Enhances Situational Awareness

The United States Geological Service (USGS) has introduced a new, real-time, web-based, all-purpose water app called “Water On the Go” that enhances situational awareness. The new GPS-aware, web app locates flood gages in 360 degrees around your current location within a user-defined radius.

Water On The Go provides real-time information throughout Texas for:

  • stream flows
  • lake levels
  • rainfall

User-Defined Alerts

Water On the Go also allows users to have alerts sent to them whenever the gages exceed user-defined parameters. For instance, if the gage at the West Fork and US59 exceeded X feet in height or Y cubic feet per second, the app would text an alert to your cell phone or email you (your choice).

How Water On the Go Works

The app automatically finds data near your current location (or any chosen location in Texas) for rapid access to water information. When you first enter the app, you are in preference pane that lets you define the type of information you are looking for. From there, you enter a map view like the one below. The app finds your location (or lets you select one. Then it automatically locates gages around you. Icons pop up representing each of the gages.

When you first enter Water on The Go, the app finds gages around you within a user-defined radius.

Special icons indicate rapidly rising streams and lakes or heavy rain that may pose a flood risk. Note the red triangles in the image above.

When you click on a gage in the radius view, detailed information from the gage pops up. You can designate it to display the type of information most important to you.

When you click on any gage, you can dig down to more information about the water at that location, including current water levels, a graph of levels in recent days, and links to more data and information.

Deceptively Deep (No Pun Intended)

The Water on the Go app is deceptively deep. It provides a wealth of historical information in graphic formats that make it easy to understand and convenient to use.

This is definitely a site that you will want to bookmark during hurricane season. In one place you can find information that used to be scattered all over the web.

I have only one suggestion. The mobile experience needs to be enhanced. Smaller screen sizes hamper functionality somewhat. The app works like a dream on desktops and laptops. It works well on tablets. But on cell phones, it can be a bit of a struggle to pinpoint locations with fat fingers. Of course, I had GPS tracking on my phone turned off for privacy reasons. I’m sure it works much better with GPS tracking turned on.

For Flood Warnings, Fishermen and More

I expect that most members of the public would find this app especially valuable in several situations.

  • When approaching storms dump massive rainfalls upstream, you could see floods coming downstream at you and monitor the closest gages to determine whether and when you should evacuate..
  • When boating, you can set lake an stream level alerts to warn you when water levels drop below minimums.
  • When traveling vacationing, as I was during Harvey, you could use the app to navigate around trouble spots and check whether your home is in danger.
  • When you have friends, relatives or children whom you are concerned about in another location, you can check their safety at a glance.

The app even lets you monitor water temp, oxygen levels and turbidity – factors that fishermen could find valuable.

This application was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Texas Water Science Center Data and Spatial Studies group and is fueled by USGS Water Services.

My thanks to Diane Cooper for alerting me to this new tool. Diane is a FEMA employee who has more than 20 years of experience forecasting floods and weather for the National Weather Service.

A Testimonial

As I was composing this post on Sunday evening, I received a text alert from Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control. He warned that parts of Spring and Little Cypress Creeks might be coming out of their banks. I checked them with the app about an hour later. Sure enough, the gages for those creeks indicated trouble exactly where he indicated.

Check out Water on the Go. Better yet, bookmark it and sign up for alerts.

https://txpub.usgs.gov/water-onthego/

Posted May 21, 2018 by Bob Rehak

265 Days since Hurricane Harvey

A Personal Flood-Control Wish List For the Lake Houston Area

On August 25th, the anniversary of Hurricane Harvey, Harris County residents will vote on a $2.5 billion flood bond. The County has not yet made clear what mitigation measures would be in the bond proposal. Hence, my personal wish list. Not all items on the list below are suitable for a bond, but could still help mitigate flooding. I’m including them here to have them all in one place. You may have other ideas. Let’s start a public dialog. Please contact me through this website or on Facebook with your opinions. I will collect and publish all credible ideas on behalf of the community.

Causes of Flooding in the Upper Lake Houston Area

Before we start, it’s important to note that the main type of flooding in our area is riverine. Humble, Kingwood, Atascocita and Huffman sit at the confluence of two main forks of the San Jacinto River.

Together, the East and West Forks drain more than a thousand square miles upstream through smaller tributaries. Those include Spring Creak, Cypress Creek and Lake Creek on the West Fork; and Caney Creek, Peach Creek and Luce Bayou on the East Fork.

Hurricane Harvey brought an estimated 400,000 cubic feet of water per second (cfs) down those tributaries to Lake Houston. The release from the dam at Lake Conroe at the peak of the storm was 79,141 cfs.

San Jacinto River Watershed Flow Rates

Where Water Came From During Harvey

That 79,141 cfs was approximately one third of 236,000 cfs coming down the heavily populated area between Kingwood, Humble and Atascocita where most of the damage occurred at the peak of the storm.

Both the West Fork and East Forks contain massive sand mines that were inundated by Harvey. As the photos elsewhere on this website show, those floodwaters swept up sand, carried it downstream, and deposited it at choke points that now create higher-than-expected floods on lower-than-normal rainfalls.

My Personal Flood-Remediation Wish List

1) Add upstream retention to reduce the amount of water coming downstream at peaks. Such retention would have to be built in unpopulated areas. That limits possibilities, however, it does not eliminate them. Lake Creek, Peach Creek and/or the East Fork of the San Jacinto all contain natural areas that could be considered as candidates. Ideally, the amount of extra detention would at least be sufficient to offset releases from the dam at Lake Conroe. 

2) Regularly dredge the East Fork, West Fork, and drainage ditches. The frequency should be at least every 5 years, the interval recommended in 2000 by the Brown & Root Regional Flood Protection Study (page E-9). Sand mines continue to send huge volumes of sand downstream with every flood. The sand blocks drainage ditches and restricts the cross section of the river. That creates higher-than-expected flooding on relatively small rains. Regular dredging does not necessarily have to occur at public cost. Tax incentives could encourage sand mining companies to dredge the river at their own expense. They could sell the recovered material to help recoup costs. However, this would have to be done under government supervision to discourage excessive dredging that undermines river banks.
3) Add more flood gates to Lake Houston. This would allow the City to release water earlier and faster during major storms. This could create extra capacity in the lake to absorb flood water. Lake Houston has two small floodgates, but they have one tenth the capacity of the gates at Lake Conroe. In combination with the sand deposits mentioned above, this can create a bottleneck. (Note: the Harris County bond could not help with flood gates because the gates would be City of Houston assets. The City is currently securing funding for this project through the Texas Department of Emergency Management, FEMA and the Federal Government.)
4) Improve coordination/communication between the people who control dams at Lake Conroe and Lake Houston, and the public. This could improve public safety two ways. First, when the discharge capabilities of both lakes are balanced, they could release water in advance of major storms as a flood mitigation strategy. (Currently, SJRA fears that releasing water before storms could overload the downstream watershed and cause the very flooding that a pre-release strategy is designed to prevent. This is a complex issue.) Second, during Harvey, actual release rates seemed to lag public announcements, creating a false sense of security among residents downstream. Better communication could have given residents downstream time to evacuate in an orderly fashion and save their most valuable belongings.
5) Link real-time inundation mapping (currently being developed) to expected Lake Conroe release rates. Harris County is already working on a real-time inundation mapping system. This system will model flooding down to the block level. It would enable people to see how fast flood waters were rising in their neighborhoods, help them determine when to evacuate, and identify safe escape routes. Now imagine making this system available to the engineers who control the Lake Conroe dam. ALSO imagine adding features that enable them to preview and test the impact of different release strategies. For instance, “How many homes downstream will be flooded at different release rates? Which strategy would flood the fewest homes? How much water can we safely release without flooding any homes? If we have to flood homes, who should we warn? How much time will they have to evacuate?” 
6) Add sensors and gages throughout the watershed to create a more detailed picture of what is headed inbound toward Lake Conroe and Lake Houston during severe events. Such sensors and gages would support the preview capabilities outlined in point #5 above. 

7) Improve sand mine operations to reduce the amount of sand coming downstream. I would like to see a government/industry/public panel created (with public hearings) to review sand mine operations and suggest improvements. The objective would be to identify affordable best practices that could reduce sand losses, minimize dredging costs, and help protect the public. This could also reduce turbidity which would improve fishing and recreation while reducing water treatment costs. I can think of four potential strategies off the top of my head: a) replanting areas no longer actively being mined to reduce erosion, b) building walls around stockpiles that protect them from floods, c) strengthening dikes so they don’t collapse, and d) giving the river more room to expand during floods. In regard to the latter, the dikes are currently built right at the river’s edge, leaving no room for the river to expand before it floods the mines.

Sand mines by Sorters Road in Montgomery County west of Kingwood. Note how the placement of their dikes give the West Fork no room to expand during a flood. This contributes to dike collapse, mine inundation and loss of sand.

8) Temporarily lower the level of Lake Conroe. Lower the level up to one foot during the rainiest months in spring and up to two feet during the peak of hurricane season. While two feet may sound draconian to some Lake Conroe residents, on average, it’s really only 4.8 inches below the amount usually lost though evaporation during September. This is the only buffer that the upper Lake Houston area can have against flooding until we implement other mitigation measures. The SJRA board has already approved this proposal, but the City of Houston and the Texas Council on Environmental Quality have not yet done so. The Lake Conroe Association has vowed to fight a two-foot lowering.

9) Create more public green spaces near the river. I would like to see groups such as the Bayou Land Conservancy work with cities, counties and the state to buy up undeveloped and abandoned land along the river. They could then put conservation easements on it to help protect us all from future flooding. Keeping that land natural would reduce runoff;  provide a buffer between homes and harm; preserve nature and wildlife; improve water quality; and create more recreational opportunities.

10) Improve communication during power outages. We need a way to warn people when power is knocked out during a storm, cell towers are overloaded, and people are sleeping. Simply publishing information is not enough if people cannot receive it. Perhaps we need sirens linked to back up generators, like those used to warn people of tornadoes throughout most of the midwest. 

What are Your Ideas?

Please use the contact page on this web site to send me your ideas. I will add them to this list and present it to city, county, state, and river authority officials. This area probably has more geoscientists and engineers per square foot than anywhere in the world. Please help. Sound off. Let your voice be heard. Let’s show the world we can lick this problem together. If you wish, I will protect your privacy by publishing your thoughts anonymously.

Posted April 20, 2018, by Bob Rehak

Day 264 since Hurricane Harvey

 

Proposal to Temporarily Lower Lake Conroe Stirs Fight with Lake Conroe Association Over Likely 4.8 Inches

At its board meeting last month, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) voted to temporarily lower Lake Conroe. This temporary lowering would only be by one foot in the rainiest months of spring and up to two feet during the peak of hurricane season, late August and September. However, due to seasonal evaporation, the amount of the actual lowering would most likely amount to 4.8 inches in September. Assuming this is an average year, that’s just 20% of the 2 feet previously anticipated.

The temporary lowering of the lake level would provide a welcome buffer against flooding for Humble and Kingwood residents, yet has sparked a blizzard of backlash from the Lake Conroe Association.

The Lake Conroe Association has said it will accept a temporary 1-foot lowering, but not 2-feet. Read the full text of the open letter by the Association’s president. Their president asserts that that extra foot will reduce property values, hurt commerce and undermine tourism. He repeatedly refers to the temporary measure as an attempt to turn Lake Conroe into a flood-control lake, rather than a water supply lake. He has vowed to take the fight to Austin, the Texas Council on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and the City of Houston. Here’s the kicker.

Nature already lowers the lake through evaporation during the peak of hurricane season – an average of more than 19 inches in September. Therefore, the Lake Conroe Association is not really fighting about two full feet, or even an extra foot; they’re fighting about a reduction that would be just 4.8 inches if this is an average year. Only in one year out of the last 18 has the average level of Lake Conroe exceeded 201 feet in September; that was last year after Harvey.

Bill Fowler, Co-chair of Lake Houston Area Flood Prevention Initiative, researched seasonal fluctuations of Lake Conroe due to evaporation. He found that the lake normally goes down during hurricane season, often by much more than a foot. See the table below taken from USGS data. The 18-year averages for August and September, the two months in question, are:

  • August = 199.6
  • September = 199.4

USGS data showing the average monthly levels of Lake Conroe for the last 18 years. 

Four-tenths of a foot equals just 4.8 inches.

4.8 inches will cause property values to collapse? 4.8 inches is going to make or break marinas? 4.8 inches will ruin tourism?  The temporary lowering would not even last the entire two months.

Below is the exact proposal, with details supplied by Jace Houston, general manager of SJRA. It must still be approved by the City of Houston and the Texas Council on Environmental Quality (TCEQ).

Note that SJRA wouldn’t start lowering beyond one foot until August 15 and wouldn’t get down to the target level until September 1.

Also note that the temporary lowering is relative to the level SJRA tries to maintain – 201 feet above mean sea level. It does NOT begin at the actual lake level which is, on average, 199.4 feet above MSL in September.

Details of Temporary Lowering of Lake Conroe

  • As a point of reference, the normal pool level of Lake Conroe is 201’ above mean sea level (msl).
  • Spring season – April 1 through May 31.
    • Starting on April 1, gradually reduce to and maintain the level of Lake Conroe at 200’ msl (one foot below normal pool).
    • Starting on June 1, begin to capture flows to restore normal lake elevation.
  • Fall season – August 1 through September 30.
    • Starting on August 1, gradually reduce the level of Lake Conroe with a goal of reaching 200’ msl (one foot below normal pool) by August 15.
    • After August 15, continue gradually lowering the level of Lake Conroe with a goal of reaching (and maintaining) 199’ msl (two feet below normal pool) by August 31.
    • Starting October 1, begin to capture flows to restore normal lake elevation.
  • If the lake level has already dropped to the target elevation just due to evaporation, no releases would be made.
  • If a storm enters the forecast while releases are being made to lower the lake level, releases would be stopped and the river allowed to drain out until rainfall is out of the forecast.

The Lake Conroe association is really only being asked to give up the difference between 199 msl and whatever the lake level is on August 15. The full reduction would not be reached until September 1 and the lake would fill again beginning October 1.

Note that any temporary, seasonal lowering would only last until downstream mitigation projects can be implemented. For instance, the Army Corps of Engineers should begin a dredging project in June that will remove the equivalent of approximately two and half Astrodomes worth of sand from the West Fork between Humble and Kingwood. That sand currently blocks the river and drainage ditches, causing higher-than-normal flooding with modest rains.

The Lake Conroe Association speaks for its members, but not all Lake Conroe residents. Many of the lake’s residents also flooded during Harvey and have indicated they would welcome a temporary reduction in lake level, as they too struggle to rebuild their lives and homes.

The Lake Houston Area Grass Roots Flood Prevention Initiative has invited LCA’s president to see the river siltation and devastation in this area caused by Harvey and the Lake Conroe release of 79,000 cubic feet per second. He has accepted. Let’s hope that what he sees changes his desire to fight a measure that could help so many people.

Posted on May 18, 2018 by Bob Rehak

262 days since Hurricane Harvey

Amy Slaughter’s Hurricane Harvey Experience

Amy Slaughter, her husband, two kids, a dog and a rabbit lived in a picturesque one-story house…until Hurricane Harvey. For the last eight months, she has lived with her husband and daughter in a trailer in their driveway while they struggle to rebuild their house. Their college-age son now lives with in-laws; it saves space in the trailer.

Home, Home on the Driveway! The Slaughter family has been living in a trailer for almost 9 months as they try to restore their home.

As I interview Amy in a local restaurant, she orders a root beer. She needs it, she says, to settle her stomach. She’s just come from court and is trying to squeeze me in before a conference call. As we talk, she constantly checks her phone for messages from contractors, architects and engineers. Such is the life of a professional mother in the Post-Harvey Reconstruction Era.

Matching shoes! Life is good!

As I listen to her tell me her story, I marvel at how energetic and positive she sounds. No doubt, this is a by-product of finally having found matching shoes and a working toaster oven.

“During the first days of the storm, we really weren’t worried,” says Slaughter. “Lake Conroe was beginning to release water, but there was no visible impact.”

“Ironically, relatives on Lake Conroe called us and said, ‘They’re releasing water from the dam up here and you have no idea how much!’ It was much more than the SJRA’s web site was showing. Evidently, the updates were way behind. But we still weren’t worried because we didn’t flood in 1994.”

“By noon, we began to think differently. We took three of our cars to Kingwood Park High School, just to be safe. My family talked me out of loading our computers into the cars because they thought someone would steal them. Big mistake. Everything I do is filed electronically with the courts. All the files on my laptop, memory cards, my home server … everything … was lost!”

“Our neighbors across the street are about a foot lower than we are. The creek behind them started to rise during the morning of the 28th. We went over to help them move their furniture upstairs. By 6 p.m., we had moved everything we could and water started to creep into their house.”

“On the news, they kept saying they were expecting the river to crest, but it didn’t; it kept rising. So we were caught off guard.”

“Then around midnight of the 28th, water began to creep into our house.” She looks whimsically inward at herself and giggles.

The Great Solo Cup Caper

“What?” I ask.

“We thought we might get only a couple inches, so we put solo cups under the legs of our wooden tables to protect them!” She smiles; You have to admire a woman who can laugh at disaster. Eventually, her home took on four feet of water.

The Slaughter’s gutted interior.

“We put chairs, computers, photo albums, and other junk up on tables and chests without realizing that everything we put up high would float and flip.”

The Pink Flamingo Flotilla

She laughs again as she flits from memory to random memory. “We evacuated as soon as the water started coming in the house. We brought our dog with us. But we left the rabbit in a cage up on the dining room table. When the water kept rising, I told my husband, ‘You have to get the rabbit.’”

“He and the dear friend who rescued us took an umbrella and waded back to the house through chest-deep water. Our rabbit was floating high above the table in her cage. They floated her cage right out.  Other belongings were rescued on a giant pink flamingo. Most people used john boats; we used a pink flamingo from our pool.”

Amy Slaughter shows how high the water reached in her entry way.

Then her mood turns somber again. “Once we rescued the rabbit, we realized we had at least four feet of water in our house. We were pretty much in shock.”

“What did you lose?” I ask.

“Furniture-wise and computer-wise, we lost everything. Wedding pictures, family albums, even the digital stuff on thumb drives. It’s all gone. But everybody is safe, nobody got hurt.”

“We were able to save most of our clothing with Pine Sol and Clorox. We saved most of the dishes. Ironically goblets levitated out of my grandmother’s china cabinet and floated all over the house. We found them down the hall, in different rooms. Everywhere.  Standing upright.”

“I’ll never leave this place.”

“Some friends suggested that we go to their home on Lake Livingston. It took three times longer than normal, but when we got there, we could get on the phone with our insurance company and FEMA. Watching all the news coverage from Livingston was terrifying. It was hard to see that and not be here.”

“When the river receded, we came back. We wanted to get into the house as quickly as we could. We lived with nearby relatives while we started gutting our house.”

“I didn’t cry for two weeks. I felt strongly that I couldn’t tell my children, ‘It’s just stuff,’ and not live by the motto myself.”

“When I got in there, I went from an attitude of looking at ‘what was lost’ to ‘what we could save.’ That really helped me get through the experience of gutting the house.”

“Everything in our home was sentimental. We had a lot of antiques we inherited. My grandmother grew up destitute. It killed me to put her sewing machine out at the curb, knowing how many dresses she had made for us growing up. To watch it rot there for three weeks was heart wrenching.”

“It was unbelievable, though, to be surrounded by people who came out of the woodwork to help. In Livingston, I was thinking, ‘Where can we live?’ But during the gutting of our house, people just came up and offered to help. Everyone pitched in. Strangers. Friends. Relatives. Customers. Clients. They brought food. They brought tools. And they didn’t ask for anything. After that, I thought to myself,  ‘I’ll never leave Kingwood.’”

A Court Appearance Reminiscent of “My Cousin Vinny”

“Then the exhaustion hit. My husband and I were both still trying to work. I had court dates. My clothing was all over Kingwood. At cleaners. With me. With my mother in law. It was pretty funny. The first time I went to court, I showed up in a denim skirt.  I approached the bailiff and said, I apologize ahead of time to the court. We got flooded and I don’t know where any of my clothes are.” Luckily, Slaughter had a judge who was more understanding than the one in the movie.

“Home, Home on the Driveway”

“Currently, we live in a travel trailer. We had looked for homes, apartments and hotels to rent, but everything was booked up. Friends opened their homes to us, but we wanted to stay near the house to deal with repairs. The trailer is not big enough for all of us; my son has to live with my sister in law.”

“The trailer is not like living in a drum; it’s like living in a drum SET,” Slaughter jokes. “When it rains, you hear all kinds of sounds. The rain makes one sound. The pine needles brushing up against the trailer make another. And then there’s the occasional cymbal crash when a pine cone hits the roof.”

“We store our clothes in the garage. It’s the mother of all walk-in closets right now.”

The mother of all walk in closets…Amy Slaughter’s garage.

“How do you cook?” I ask.

“The trailer does have a microwave. We have a grill with a burner on it. And we have a hot plate and a toaster oven. But mostly we don’t cook.”

Shrinking an Inch a Day

I shake my head, thinking back to college. I could handle life in a trailer then. Now, I’m not so sure. Amy Slaughter seems only slightly troubled, though.

“It’s not bad if you’re on vacation, but after eight months, it’s kind of getting old. At first you’re so grateful to have it that you overlook the inconveniences. Then after about a month, your thoughts start to go in the opposite direction. It feels like it’s shrinking an inch a day.” I nod; I have a pair of jeans like that.

Camp Chairs and an Air Mattress for Watching TV

“Now that the house is dried out, I’m starting to use it as a workshop to restore my grandmother’s furniture,” says Amy Slaughter. “We have a back porch. We put a TV out there. We have camp chairs and an air mattress for watching the TV. That’s really our living room. But it’s getting hot now. So we may be spending more time in the trailer.”

Third-World Living

“The shower in the trailer is about the size of a bucket. It’s functional and would work. But it’s tiny, so we shower in the house. One of the bathrooms had a shower where we only tore out the glass and the backside of two walls. We put tarps along the wood studs to hold the water in and propped up the one wall with a wire shelving unit and bungee cords. It’s definitely Third-World living.”

The Slaughter shower. Makeshift, but still bigger than their trailer’s shower.

I think to myself, “This lady wins awards for creativity, but I doubt she will pass the plumbing inspection.”

“Purchasing the House We Almost Paid Off.”

I ask how Harvey affected Amy Slaughter’s family financially. Without missing a beat, she says, “We get the privilege of purchasing the house we had almost paid off.” I ask for an explanation. “Our options were: sell and move; put it right back together again; or build up. We didn’t want to move. And we didn’t want to flood … ever again. So we decided to build up. But contractors told us it would be less expensive to wipe the slab and start over than build on top of what we had.”

“How much longer will it take?” I ask.

“Finding a contractor to do the whole thing is difficult. Everybody is booked. We’re in a financial quandary. Flood insurance will only go so far. It will replace what we had, but not what we feel we need to build to be safe. Before this, we had a house that never flooded and we want to get back to that.”

“What are your biggest concerns at the moment?” I ask.

Concerns Looking Forward

“There’s a concern that we won’t be able to sell the house. How many people want a one-story house where you have to climb the stairs to get in?”

“I’m also afraid that Kingwood will be considered a lost cause at some point by politicians. You’ve seen it happen with Forest Cove. ‘Oh, that area floods now, so we should just buy out the owners and wipe it all out.’”

“Meanwhile, you have developers who are buying golf courses, like Forest Cove’s. I’ve heard it was bought and is about to be turned into homesites. That scares me. They’re going to build up higher and that’s just going to send water toward the rest of us. If the politicians don’t start limiting development like that, it will turn the rest of us into a financial sink hole.”

“If you could say one thing to the mayor, what would it be?”

Amy Slaughter pauses a long time, then…

“Come try to sleep through a rain storm in my travel trailer!”

“I worry whether I should put pontoons it,” she says doing her best Sarah Silverman imitation. Then seriously, “It won’t take a Harvey at this point to flood Kingwood again. I know they are committed to dredging the river, but the reality is they haven’t solidified any workable plan yet.”

And with that, Amy Slaughter excuses herself and sprints off to her conference call.

Interview by Bob Rehak

Posted May 15, 2018

259 Days since Hurricane Harvey