In response to citizen requests after the May 7th flood, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has been excavating the portion of Ben’s Branch near North Park Drive and Woodland Hills Drive in Kingwood. The St. Martha Catholic school on the south side of the creek and Kids in Action on the north side both flooded during that event.
Infrequent Maintenance and Upstream Development Took Their Toll
The ditch had become badly filled in due to infrequent maintenance and upstream development. This project, covered by HCFCD’s maintenance budget began last month.
Thomas Blailock, a reader, has been sending in these pictures showing the progress.
Much of the creek has been cleared already. And just in time for Hurricane Barry! I’m sure all the merchants along North Park are breathing a sigh of relief.
Looking west from Woodland Hills at Bens Branch. Photo courtesy of Thomas Blailock.Looking east from Woodland Hills at Bens Branch. Photo courtesy of Thomas Blailock.By comparison, here’s a “before” shot taken about two weeks ago. Photo courtesy of Thomas Blailock.
Next Up: Lower Portion of Ben’s Branch
This project is separate from the excavation that will soon begin on Ben’s Branch south of Kingwood Drive. We should soon see about 8,000 truckloads of dirt coming out of that reach of the stream.
Twelve senior residents of Kingwood Village Estates died near that area after Harvey. They passed as a result of injuries suffered during the evacuation or the stress of losing their homes.
Taylor Gulley for an Encore
Next up: the upper portion of Taylor Gulley…followed by additional clearing of debris in the lower portion later this summer. Approximately 200 homes flooded adjacent to Taylor Gully in the March 7th storm, due in part to upstream development which has deposited sediment at higher than normal rates in the channel.
A shout out to Barbara Hilburn of Kingwood Lakes who raised awareness about internal drainage issues after Harvey. She has worked long and hard to jumpstart these clean outs.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/10/2019
680 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/IMG_2071.jpg?fit=1500%2C1125&ssl=111251500adminadmin2019-07-10 15:10:052019-07-10 15:11:31Excavation Continues along Upper Ben’s Branch while HCFCD Gets Ready to Begin on Lower Portion
NOAA predicts Invest 92L will become Hurricane Barry and hit southwest Louisiana by Saturday morning. That could leave Houston with tropical storm force winds in the 45-70 mph range.
Current forecasts indicate landfall in southwest Louisiana on Saturday morning with the storm strengthening to 85mph just before landfall.Tropical storm force winds in the 40 to 70 mph range could also hit Houston on Saturday morning. Intensity depends on your location. See map above.Definite rotation showing, but not yet wound tight. Hurricane hunter planes will fly into the storm this afternoon and weather stations along the coast have doubled their upper air soundings.
Watches Likely To Extend Westward Later Today or Early Thursday, Potentially Include Upper Texas coast
Mid level circulation over the east-central Gulf of Mexico continues to develop. Current ship and buoy data in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico indicate surface winds of 20-35 knots are already being experienced under deep convection. The US Air Force will fly the area early this afternoon to determine if/where a center of circulation has formed.
NOAA and USAF plan multiple low- and high-level missions. Effective today, weather offices along the US Gulf coast will begin launching upper air soundings every 6 hours instead of every 12.
Track Remains Uncertain
There is still considerable uncertainty concerning the track of the storm. Adjustments remain possible and all residents within the error cone should make preparations.
85 MPH Winds Predicted at Landfall
The National Hurricane Center predicts an 85 mph hurricane before landfall in Louisiana. Much of this intensification occurs within the last 24 hours before landfall. While conditions in the near term (next 24-36 hours) are generally favorable for development, consolidation of the inner core will take some time. Much of the development should occur as the system nears the coast.
Tropical storm force winds in the 40 to 70 mph range could hit Houston – also on Saturday morning.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, feels, “This will likely be a case where an intensifying hurricane is approaching the coast on Saturday.”
Storm Surge Watch In Effect for Texas Coast
Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are likely along portions of the Louisiana coast starting Friday and more likely into Saturday. Large long period swells will move into the upper Texas coastal waters starting late Thursday and building Friday into the weekend. This could push tides up along the Gulf facing beaches late Friday into the weekend (Bolivar).
Should the forecast track adjust westward any, impacts to the upper TX would be increased.
Recommended Actions
A large portion of southeast Texas remains in the official error cone. If the track shifts westward again, as it did last night, it could produce greater impacts to our area.
Have hurricane plans ready to be enacted if the track shifts to the west.
Stock hurricane supplies.
Monitor forecasts frequently.
Posted by Bob Rehak on July 10, 2019 at 12:30pm
680 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/143913_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2019-07-10 12:40:502019-07-10 12:42:03Hurricane Likely for Louisiana Coast; Tropical Storm Force Winds Could Hit Houston on Saturday
After the flood, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) received multiple complaints about alleged SWPPP (stormwater pollution prevention plan) violations on the site. TCEQ referred them to Montgomery County for investigation. Montgomery County then referred them to LJA Engineering, which coincidentally also represented the Woodridge developer. But more on the apparent conflict later.
Timeline of Investigation
Between May 8 and May 10, 2019, LJA Engineers received five complaints for investigation.
On or about May 11, 2019, Rebel Contractors began installing safeguards and posting permits that should have been in place months before the flood.
LJA conducted its investigation on May 15, 2019.
LJA submitted its findings to Montgomery County on May 16. The report showed several deficiencies, but many more had been corrected shortly before the LJA inspection.
On June 5, 2019, LJA reinspected the site and found that all corrective actions requested on 5/15/2019 had been completed.
On July 8th, an email between LJA and the TCEQ indicated that the contractor was now in compliance and that Montgomery County considered all the complaints resolved.
Results of 5/15 inspection show that SWPPP permits were posted, however they were posted just before the inspection even though construction had been in progress for months.
The following photos were attached to the email containing the report above. They give the impression that the vast majority of silt fencing had been in place and that all the permits were posted. I could see no fencing and no permits when I visited the site immediately after the flood.
Permit notices, such as these, should have been in place months earlier, but showed up just before the LJA inspection.Silt fence along Woodland Hills in Kingwood was also missing at time of flood, but installed days before inspection.Lack of protection around storm sewer allowed silt to enter drains near Woodland Hills Drive.Looking south on Woodland Hills, you can see silt fence adjacent to road but none protecting Sherwood Trails in background.Looking east along county line (southern border of development), you can see recently installed silt fence.These rock baskets at the entrance to Taylor Gulley in Kingwood were installed just before the inspection to control erosion (visible in the background).They were not in place at the time of the flood on May 7.Looking south toward Taylor Gulley from the concrete culvert above.Interior portion of the site without silt fencing. Taylor Gulley lies between utility poles and tree line on the left.Looking south along the Porter boundary. Yates property is on right. Lack of silt fencing and adequate drainage covered his property in muck.Clean bill of health issued after reinspection on 6/5/2019.
As proof of compliance, LJA submitted these two before/after photo sequences. Neither sequence corresponded to the photos from May 15 where the inspector noted deficiencies. These “before” photos bear a different date: May 23. The second report above never mentions an inspection on May 23.
Conflict of Interest?
Both the developer and Montgomery County hired LJA Engineering independently:
Subsidiaries of Perry Homes (Figure Four Partners and PSWA) hired LJA to design the site and its detention ponds. AND…
Montgomery County hired LJA to investigate complaints about multiple construction sites throughout the county.
LJA did not see a conflict of interest. Nor did it recuse itself. Instead, it claimed that two different divisions of the company handled the contracts, therefore, there was no conflict.
However, the timing of the investigation by LJA raises questions. LJA gave Rebel Contractors time to install most of the pollution-prevention measures that they should have installed months earlier.
Questions of Conscience
At this point, after reviewing hundreds of photos and drone footage taken after the flood, I have several questions:
Why didn’t Rebel Contractors address these deficiencies before the May 7th flood?
Copies of the SWPPP plans still have not been made public to see if other irregularities exist. LJA Engineering has not returned phone calls.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/10/2019
680 Days after Hurricane Harvey
All thoughts expressed in this post represent my opinions on matters of public interest and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the great State of Texas.
Chances of Formation Increase to 70% in 2-Day Outlook
As of 2PM EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) again increased the chances of Invest 92L turning into a tropical storm. This morning, the two-day outlook said 50%. Now it’s 70%. The 5-day outlook remains at 80%. The animated GIF below shows the first hints of circulation. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to fly into the storm tomorrow if necessary.
Since this morning, the chances of Invest 92L turning into a tropical storm have increased from 50% to 70% in the two-day outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center.Five-hour loop showing first hints of circulation offshore Florida Panhandle.
Center Now in Northeastern Gulf
According to the NHC, a broad low-pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development over the next several days, and…
… a tropical depression is likely to form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Heavy Rainfall Potential, But More to East
This disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast. Continue to monitor the storm at least twice a day.
Uncertainty still high; track uncertain, though all models now suggest landfall east of Houston.
The satellite image below shows infrared imagery. Note how the moisture has built up in the eastern Gulf in the last three hours. It now occupies an area from south Louisiana to south Florida.
24-hour satellite infrared loop shows explosion of convection in northeastern Gulf.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/radar_flanim.gif?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=17681024adminadmin2019-07-09 15:19:412019-07-09 15:19:50Invest 92L Now Offshore; First Hints of Circulation
The chances of Invest 92L becoming a named tropical storm have increased to 50% in the two-day forecast and 80% in the five-day forecast, according to the National Hurricane Center. That’s the bad news. The good news for the Houston area: most models now predict the storm will make landfall in Louisiana.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist caps predicted rainfall totals at 1 to 3 inches for now, but with the understanding that totals could go significantly higher.
Invest in this context means “area of investigation.” A weather system receives this designation when forecasters start to track something serious more closely.
Uncertainty Remains High at This Time
Because the center of this storm is still over land at the moment, it’s hard to predict. Models diverge widely. Those that take the storm further south into the Gulf result in stronger winds and higher rainfall totals because the storm will remain over water longer.
However, some models predict the storm will remain closer to shore as it tracks westward through the Gulf. Those models suggest lower winds and less rainfall. The current radius of circulation of the storm is 150 nautical miles. (One nautical mile = 1.15078 miles.)
Net: forecasts are all over the map at the moment. Uncertainty remains high.
Suggested Actions
Your best bet is to:
Monitor forecasts twice a day
Check and stock hurricane kits and have plans ready to be enacted this week
Be ready to enact plans by the middle to end of this week
Follow trusted weather sources for information (National Hurricane Center, Houston/Galveston National Weather Service, West Gulf River Forecast Center and local government) for any recommendations
Graphical Predictions
From Mikes Weather Pageas of Monday evening.Numbers on each track indicate hours from 6 UTC, Tuesday morning.If the red model is correct, the storm would hit the Texas/Louisiana border by 6am Saturday morning.
The National Hurricane Center and Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner now predict that a tropical cyclone will likely develop in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
5-day outlook shows low pressure system tracking westward over warm Gulf waters.
Models Now Predict Westward Development
Overnight, the threat increased westward along the Louisiana and Texas coasts.
The National Weather Service expects a trough of low pressure located over central Georgia to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. There, it should form a broader area of low pressure in a couple of days. A tropical depression will likely form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. Formation chance in the next two days remains low at 10 percent, but increases to 80 percent in the 5-day outlook.
Likely Path
Upper air conditions appear favorable for a tropical system to form and then intensify over much of the US Gulf coast and northern Gulf. Models now predict that any Gulf system would tend to track more westward.
Intensity
“A tropical storm is likely and a hurricane is not out of the question,” says Lindner. “If forecast models continue to show the westward motion and potential threat to the northwest Gulf, significant forecast changes will be required over the next 24-48 hours.”
What to Do Now
Closely monitor the progress of this system.
Check hurricane preparation kits and plans.
Be ready to enact those plans later this week.
Monitor weather forecasts closely.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/8/2019
678 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/image001.jpg?fit=624%2C461&ssl=1461624adminadmin2019-07-08 07:43:192019-07-08 07:47:29Tropical Cyclone Threat Increases Later This Week
The equity flap continues. In its June 25th meeting, Harris County Commissioners Court voted 3-2 to take a portion of METRO fundingAWAY from Harris County Precincts 3 and 4. This vote impacts Precinct 4 constituents by $3,069,709 in road construction funds this year alone.
This attack was just a beginning. Commissioners Ellis and Garcia stated in a joint press conference that they seek to also go after portions of Precinct 3’s and 4’s Mobility Funds…based on…you guessed it…equity. Watch the video above all the way to the end. An estimated $6 million per year is at stake in Precinct 4.
Basis for Equity
The current formula for distribution of METRO and mobility funds accounts for the number of road miles each precinct must maintain.
Compared to precinct 4, Precinct 1 also has 38% of the lane miles, 42% of the asphalt roads, one third of the unincorporated land mass, and one fourth of the housing starts.
I don’t dispute the existence of “historically disadvantaged” ethnic groups. However, I do question why road funds should be distributed by race. It seems other factors such as need, area covered, growth rate, or population served relate more directly.
Highest Percentage of Unincorporated Population in Precinct 4
Historically speaking, the county’s mission is to provide services to unincorporated areas.
So let’s start this discussion by looking at the percentage of county residents within each precinct who live in unincorporated vs. incorporated areas, such as the City of Houston. Here we see that Precinct 4 must support virtually triple the the number of unincorporated residents that Precinct 1 supports. Residents who live in unincorporated areas have support other than the county to help meet their needs.
Precinct 4 must support virtually triple the the number of unincorporated residents that Precinct 1 supports.
Highest Percentage of Road Miles in Precinct 4
Another way to look at need is by the number of road miles that each precinct must maintain. Here we can see that Precinct 4 has more lane miles, thoroughfare miles, and open-ditch asphalt roads to support than Precinct 1 by wide margins.
Highest Percentage of Growth in Precinct 4
Growth rates also factor into need in a very direct way. Here again, we can see that Precinct 4 is growing faster than Precinct 1 by many measures.
Change in “total population” percentage (incorporated + unincorporated)
Change in unincorporated population percentage
New housing and apartment starts
Residents inside the City receive county funds, too. Precincts receive them based on a weighted formula.
Precinct 4 Also Has Larger Area to Cover than Precinct 1
From the table above, we can see that Precinct 4 also has about 6.51% more square miles to service than Precinct 1.
What Funds Go For
Precinct 4 maintains over 2,600 road miles and 327 bridges in a 72% unincorporated area.
Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle said, “These Mobility Funds maintain and construct roads that keep traffic moving. They also provide roadway access for a prompt response for law enforcement, fire and emergency medical services that will ensure the continued safety of all residents.”
The ditches that parallel those roads also play a huge role in carrying water away from neighborhoods, thus reducing the risk of flooding.
Subversion of Language
The inclusion of equity in the flood bond language seems to have opened a Pandora’s box. When I listen to Commissioner Ellis and when I look at hard data, I get the feeling that the meaning of “equity” is being distorted as part of a crass money grab. This isn’t equity. It’s Commissioner Ellis seeking reparations for misdeeds of generations past.
To me, equity in this context means a fair, just, impartial, or balanced distribution of funds.
Equity should be based on objective measures, such as area served, population served, or miles that must be maintained. Those should be debated openly.
The way Commissioner Ellis uses the word, however, the outcome becomes the opposite of equity. Money is not distributed based on per capita, per road mile, or per square mile. It’s based on racial preference and results in an inequitable distribution of funds based on other objective measures.
It’s hard to reason with someone flaming about racial injustice 200 years ago. And Mr. Ellis, like most demagogues, knows that. He also exploits it. I just hope he doesn’t kill growth in Harris County while he’s doing it. Because that’s where he’s headed…including (insiders say) redirecting money from the flood bond.
Voice your opinion at the next Commissioners Court meeting on Tuesday, July 9
Commissioners Court meetings are open to the public and begin at 10:00 a.m. at 1001 Preston Street, Suite 934, Houston, Texas 77002. However, if you wish to speak, you must complete the online appearance request form found at:
It is now very typical for Commissioners Court to go beyond 6 hours.
Those who do not state an agenda item when they sign up are usually forced to wait until the end of the session. However, you can insert the agenda item in the “Subject Matter” box when you sign up. This should increase the probability of you speaking earlier.
Agenda item 19.e.1.b Mobility Funding includes this topic You can also put any additional description that you want in the subject description box.
U. S. Mail: The Honorable Judge Lina Hidalgo 1001 Preston, Suite 911 Houston, TX 77002
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/7/2019
677 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Lane-Miles.jpg?fit=900%2C1350&ssl=11350900adminadmin2019-07-07 20:42:482019-07-08 07:08:23Harris County Precinct 4 METRO and Mobility Funding Also Under “Equity” Attack in Commissioners Court
New images by RD Kissling, a Lake-Houston-area geologist and canoeist, show two things. The Great Lakes dredge near the mouth bar sat idle this holiday weekend. Also Great Lakes has not made much progress yet.
Dredge seems to be hugging the south shore of the mouth bar. An excavator has removed vegetation and loosened sand in that area.
Kissling Video Underscores Immensity of Undertaking
Also, Kissling shot more video. This 32-second clip shows him standing in less-than-knee-deep water approximately 300 yards from the mouth bar. This video dramatizes the immensity of the task at hand. It also shows where the channel currently lies relative to the mouth bar itself.
Video showing RD Kissling in shin-deep water 300 yards from the south shore of the mouth bar.
Kissling and Tim Garfield, another local geologist first brought the dangers of the mouth bar to the public’s attention. Massive deposits of sand cause water to flow uphill by 30+ feet between the end of Phase-One dredging and the mouth bar. That backs water up during floods. The channel width and depth simply don’t have enough conveyance capacity to move floodwaters through. As a result, the floodwaters slow down, drop their sediment load, enlarge the blockage, and start to spread out overland.
The mouth bar of the West Fork of the San Jacinto. Photo taken two weeks after Harvey.
Clampdown on Communications
Neither the City, County, State, FEMA or Corps have made their plans clear yet. This contrasts with the start of Phase-One dredging when the Corps and City proudly trotted out presentations in community meetings.
I submitted a FOIA request to the Corps for their plans several weeks ago. However, I have not yet received those plans. I did receive a request for clarification asking what I meant by “plans”? I responded that I could not imagine the US Army staging an operation this large and expensive without a plan. They thanked me for the clarification.
The FOIA stalling and clamp down on communication from all parties involved suggests that the Federal government and local authorities have not yet reached a mutually satisfactory agreement. It has been nine months since they announced an agreement in principle after the “everybody-but-Trump” meeting in Austin.
To be fair, this has been a holiday week and many people are on vacation. Perhaps things will become clearer when they return.
With City elections fast approaching, it will be interesting to see if progress – or the lack thereof – affects how the Lake Houston Area votes. We’re running out of time to make reasonable dredging progress before November. With two years in the rear-view mirror since Harvey, I suspect voters will look at performance more than promises when they go to the polls.
In coming weeks, I will post about where the candidates line up on the three major goals for the Lake Houston Area: additional dredging, detention and gates (Plea for DDG). I also hope that this will be the first of weekly reports on mouth bar dredging. So if you are out on the water, please send pics of what you see.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/6/2019
676 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/IMG_3245.jpg?fit=1500%2C780&ssl=17801500adminadmin2019-07-06 21:48:462019-07-06 21:57:23Mouth Bar Dredge Idle Over Holiday Weekend; Not Much Progress Yet
As dawn broke this morning, the extent of the July 4th fire in the Forest Cove townhomes became apparent. It appears that the blaze affected three, or possibly four, of the northernmost townhomes on Timberline Drive. At least one of the units still smoldered when I took these pictures around 9 a.m. this morning.
On the morning of July 5th, you could smell the smoke two blocks away.It appears that the fire caused at least one unit to collapse inward on itself.Close up of northernmost unit still standing.Fire burned through the roof in places.The force of fire hoses may have displaced these shingles. The fire did not appear to spread this far.Photo of same units from back side on Timberline Court shows fire damage to at least three townhomes.Close up from center portion of shot above.Note how even the globe of the streetlight on the right appears to have partially melted. Close up from shot above.Also note the relatively straight burn line.Meanwhile, outside the townhomes that burned on Aqua Vista last Sunday, people have already begun illegally dumping used carpet.
Last night, equipment and firefighters from several Houston Fire Department stations lined up for blocks to fight and contain this fire. It was the second fire in this area this week and at least the third this year. When more than 17 feet of water swept through the townhomes during Harvey, they became uninhabitable.
No Electricity or Gas to Area
Former owners say the electricity and gas have been cut off since Harvey. Since then, the townhomes have become the domain of vandals, squatters, drug dealers and graffiti artists.
FEMA, through Harris County Flood Control, is buying out the properties. But the process is voluntary, long, and cumbersome. They treat each unit in a multi-unit complex, such as this one, as an individual sale. Only when buyouts for all townhomes in a complex are complete, can Flood Control schedule demolition.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/TimberlineFire_01.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2019-07-05 12:15:262019-07-05 12:28:22Pictures of Aftermath of July 4th Fire in Forest Cove Townhomes
Approximately 10 pieces of fire equipment as well as ambulances responded tonight to yet another fire at the Forest Cove Townhomes. This is the second fire this week and at least the third this year at a large complex that has been abandoned since it was engulfed by Hurricane Harvey’s floodwaters.
Earlier this week, fire consumed another part of the complex on Aqua Vista Street. Tonight, it destroyed more townhomes in the same area between Timberline Court and Timberline Drive where the latter intersects Marina Drive.
I could not get close for safety reasons, but managed to capture the images below with a wide-aperture Nikon telephoto lens.
Abandoned townhomes on Timberline Drive, photographed from Marina Drive in Forest Cove.Houston Fire Department was spraying water from this elevated position to suppress the fire. Additional units were spraying water on the flames from the groundas you can see in the next photo.Fire equipment was dousing the flames from multiple angles to keep the fire from spreading.
Massive Fire Department Response
Fire equipment and ambulances lined up for four blocks. From Marina and Timberline, they went up to Hamblen. Additionally, equipment blocked half of Hamblen for another block.
Cause of the fire has not yet been determined. Nor is it known whether there were any injuries.
Need to Accelerate Buyouts and Plan Alternative Uses
This underscores the need to accelerate buyouts in this area and tear down these abandoned buildings. They have become a haven for drug dealers, squatters and vandals.
Ironically, I was responding to questions about my last post on this subject – i.e., what to do with this area – when readers alerted me to this new fire.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/5/2019
675 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/MarinaTwnhms_04-1.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2019-07-04 23:56:512019-07-05 00:14:39Second Fire in Week at Forest Cove Townhomes
