Although tropical storms and hurricanes can develop outside the June 1 to November 30 period, yesterday was the “official” end of the 2020 hurricane season. The 2020 season tied or set an astounding number of records. The following compilation comes from Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.
Tracks of 2020 Storms
2020 By the Numbers
The 2020 season was the most active season ever recorded with a total of:
30 tropical storms (pervious record was 28 in 2005)
13 hurricanes (2005 continues to hold the record with 15)
6 major hurricanes
This is only the second time the Greek alphabet has been used (previous was 2005).
Landfalls
The US coastline – especially the US Gulf coast – experienced a record 12 landfalls, surpassing the previous record of 9 from 1916. Landfalling storms included (Bertha, Cristobal, Hanna, Fay, Isaias, Laura, Marco, Sally, Beta, Delta, Zeta, Eta (2 FL landfalls).
The Gulf coast experienced 9 of the 12 landfalls including 5 hurricanes (Hanna, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta).
Texas and Louisiana suffered 7 of the 9 landfalls with only Sally and Eta making landfall east of the Mississippi River.
Louisiana experienced the landfall of 5 tropical systems: 2 tropical storms (Cristobal and Marco) and 3 hurricanes (Laura, Delta, Zeta). Laura and Delta made landfall only 12 miles apart roughly 6 weeks apart in southwest Louisiana just east of Cameron.
Portions of the state of Louisiana spent a total of 3 weeks within the NHC error cone this hurricane season. The state of LA was under coastal watches or warnings due to a tropical cyclone for a total of 474 hours or 19.75 days.
Laura was the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the state of Louisiana since 1856.
For the most part, storms impacting the US coast in 2020 missed large metro areas when compared to 2017 and 2005. Given the large number of storms that made landfall in the US, the estimated damages were low compared to other years. Damages for the 2020 hurricane season were $37 billion in the US, compared to $307 billion (2017…Harvey and Irma) and $238 billion (2005…Katrina, Rita, Wilma).
Strength, Rapid Intensification, Concentration
On September 14, 2020, 5 tropical cyclones were ongoing at the same time in the Atlantic basin (Sally, Paulette, Rene, Teddy, and Vicky). This ties September 1971 for the most number of tropical cyclones at the same time in the basin.
On September 18, 2020, 3 tropical cyclones formed within in 6-hr window (Wilfred, Alpha, and Beta). This is only the second time in recorded history that 3 tropical cyclones have formed in such a short time period…the other time was in 1893.
10 tropical storms formed in the month of September – the most for any month on record
A total of 10 systems experienced rapid intensification (35mph increase in wind speed in 24hrs) in 2020 (Hanna, Laura, Sally, Teddy, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Iota).
Hurricanes Delta, Iota, and Eta experienced winds speed increases over 100mph in 36 hours or less.
Of the 6 major hurricanes in 2020, 4 were in October and November and had Greek alphabet names (Delta, Epsilon, Eta, and Iota).
Hurricanes Eta and Iota both made landfall only 15 miles apart along the Nicaragua coast both as category 4 hurricanes.
Hurricane Iota (160mph) became the latest category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin and the second strongest November hurricane on record only behind the 1932 Cuba hurricane (175mph)
NOAA hurricane hunters flew a total of 86 missions for 678 flight hours and 102 eyewall passages. A total of 1772 dropsondes were deployed.
Posted by Bob Rehak based on data from Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner
1190 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/image005.png?fit=1146%2C710&ssl=17101146adminadmin2020-12-01 10:18:492020-12-01 10:18:54Record-Setting 2020 Hurricane Season In Review
“More than 200 families will lose their land and homes Tuesday as the controversial developer in Liberty County continues mass foreclosures,” says Dolcefino. “Nearly 97 percent of foreclosures in the county are now linked to a neighborhood housing a growing number of illegal immigrants.”
A small part of 13,000-acre Colony Ridge in Liberty County. Photographed last spring.
One in Eight Colony Ridge Lots Foreclosed on This Year
The developer foreclosed on more than 2,700 properties before Thanksgiving this year, according to Dolcefino. With another 200 on the auction block tomorrow, that will make 2,900 – out of a total of 22,356 properties (according to the developer’s website). That’s about 13% of all the lots in Colony Ridge, foreclosed on in ONE year. More than one in eight!
According to Dolcefino, the foreclosure auction should take place on the steps of the Liberty County Courthouse from 10 to 1 tomorrow. Dolcefino caught the developer’s employees faking an auction last time.
Colony Ridge So Far Has Managed to Repurchase Every Foreclosure
Dolcefino also says that Colony Ridge has repurchased 100% of the lots it has foreclosed on. Thus, the developer sells and resells the properties many times over in a revolving door arrangement.
Colony Ridge boasts that they finances land transactions themselves. The developer makes it exceedingly easy to purchase the property with down payments as low as a few hundred dollars. But then he charges up to 13% interest rates on the balance. And the fees for water and sewage hookups can be astronomical.
No wonder the developer and his team (a bunch of ex-boxers) have an undefeated record. It’s the perfect combination punch for unsophisticated buyers, many of whom barely speak English: a down-payment jab followed by uppercut interest rates, roundhouse fees, and the knockout at the County Courthouse.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/1/2020
1190 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/20200616-RJR_4059.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-11-30 22:49:002020-11-30 23:37:56Flood of Foreclosures: Hundreds to Lose Colony Ridge Homes Tomorrow
Atlas 14 Updates Rainfall Frequency Estimates Developed in 1960s
Developers must now design detention and storm sewers around rainfall rates that increase 16-32% compared to the old standards for Harris County.
Data included in Atlas 14:
Replaces rainfall-depth information used since the 1960s
Provides estimates of the depth of rainfall for average recurrence intervals of 1 year through 1,000 years, and durations from 5 minutes to 60 days.
NOAA collected this data in Texas through December 2017, which includes rainfall from Hurricane Harvey.
New Atlas-14 Rainfall Frequency Estimates for the Lake Houston Area
Floodplain, Detention & Fill Restrictions
The amended policy manual adopts the increased precipitation rates. It also specifies more rigorous criteria for detention basins and fill within the floodplain.
Amendments anticipate that the future Atlas-14 1% (100-year) floodplain will equal the current 0.2% (500-year) floodplain.
Harris County Flood Control District
Therefore, these amendments are considered to be interim and will be reevaluated once new floodplains have been produced as part of HCFCD’s Modeling Assessment and Awareness Project (MAAPnext) in late 2021. You can find more information on MAAPnext at www.maapnext.org.
Zero Net Fill
The old guidelines prohibited developers from adding fill only within the 100-year floodplain. Now they’re prohibited from adding fill within the 500-year floodplain, too. The policy is called “zero net fill.” It means developers cannot bring fill into the floodplains. They can, however, excavate fill from one part of their property and use it to build up another part of their property.
Under new guidelines, developers cannot bring fill into either the 100-year or 500-year floodplains.
For a 20-acre development, the average volume of stormwater within detention basins will increase by about 20%, or about 32,500 additional gallons per acre.
Effort to Harmonize Floodplain Regs with Neighbors’
Professor Emeritus William Dupré, Ph.D., of the University of Houston’s Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences filed a 36-page report with the TCEQ on sand mining in the San Jacinto River Basin. Dupré has broard experience with geologic hazards and risk assessment. He submitted his report in support of the petition filed with the TCEQ by the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative to establish best management practices (BMPs) for sand mining.
The first issue that Dupré identified is flooding. “With one exception, all sand mines in the San Jacinto River Watershed are located partially or completely within the regulatory floodway, an area delineated by FEMA as having the highest potential for flooding (and erosion) along major waterways. “[T]he floodway is an extremely hazardous area due to the velocity of flood waters which carry debris, potential projectiles and erosion potential…”. (Montgomery County Flood Plain Management Regulations, 2014, p.25)
Floodway Constriction
Dupré notes that partitioning large areas of the floodway from rising floodwaters by levees and dikes can result in increased flooding of adjacent areas.
A good example: sand mines on the north side the San Jacinto West Fork and I-45 have walled off half the floodplain, forcing floodwaters onto neighboring property on the south side.
Sand mines have walled off more than 200 acres west of I-45 and north of the San Jacinto West Fork. See below.The high dikes force floodwater to the other side of the river rather than allowing it to spread out on both sides.The concentration of water in a smaller area also increases the velocity and erosion. For close-up of area inside red circle, see image below.This shows how high the dike around the sand mine is.
Levee Failure Can Flush Pollutants into Waterways
“Flood-induced breaches in levees can also add to the problems of flooding, erosion, and sedimentation downstream,” Dupré says, flushing sediment and other pollutants into adjacent land, wetlands, and waterways. See two examples below.
In the top row, river migration eroded the pit wall which allowed the contents to drain into the West Fork near North Park Drive. In the bottom row, the entire contents of a mine pit drained into the West Fork near Bennett Estates.
In-Stream Mining Disrupts River Habitat
A. Google Earth image of point bar on the west Fork of the San Jacinto River; B. Same bar 5 months later showing un-permitted (i.e. illegal) In-stream “bar-scalping.”
“Since the passage of Section 404 of the Clean Water Act Amendments of 1977, some states have heavily restricted or banned in-stream mining, as have many countries,” writes Dupré. “These restrictions are mainly based on the significant environmental problems associated with this type of mining.”
Such mining can create major disruptions of riparian habitats by increasing the amount of sediment put into suspension. “Major channel modifications can also occur, including upstream incision (headcutting) and downstream erosion and deposition.”
BMPs Can Make Compliance with Regulations More Efficient
In his paper, Dupré next examines applicable regulations and suggests several BMPs to supplement them. He recommends that:
All APO’s should develop and make available to regulators and the public a Comprehensive Mine Plan and an Environmental Assessment Report on potential impacts before permits are issued.
Likewise, all APO’s should develop and make available to regulators and the public a Reclamation Plan before permits are issued and file a performance bond ensuring reclamation before a production permit is granted. Such permits should have significant civil and criminal penalties for non-compliance.
New mining should be minimized or restricted in delineated floodplains and floodways and channel migration zones (areas most like to be eroded by lateral migration and river avulsion).
Mines should be “prohibited within the adopted regulatory floodway unless it has been demonstrated through hydrologic and hydraulic analyses that the proposed encroachment would not result in any increase in flood levels…. A development permit must be secured from the Flood Plain Administrator prior to the placement of fill or other encroachment in the floodway….” (Montgomery County Flood Plain Management Regulations, 2014).
Stockpiles should be located outside the floodway, because of the high potential for erosion (and resultant sediment pollution) during frequent flooding.
Conclusion
Dupré acknowledges that aggregate mining clearly provides valuable material and employment to the state and nation.
Nonetheless, Texas is one of the few states where sand and gravel mines remain largely unregulated. Issues related to flooding, erosion, and sedimentation create many unintended (and undesirable) environmental and economic impacts associated with sand and gravel mines – especially in the San Jacinto River watershed. “I believe there is a clear need for the requirement for BMP’s to better protect the public and the environment,” says Dupré.
TCEQ Public Comment Period Rapidly Coming to a Close For Sand Mining BMPs
On November 11, the TCEQ held a public hearing on a joint proposal between TACA and the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative to establish best management practices for sand mining in the San Jacinto watershed. The public comment period closes on December 11, 2020 – in just 12 days.
If you want to weigh in on the subject, you can review presentations from the hearing here. TACA and the Lake Houston Area people are in substantial agreement on most points. However, they still differ on four key issues.
Where should the BMPs be enforced? On the main stems of the East and West Forks or on the smaller tributaries, too?
Should there be performance bonds for reclamation?
How far from rivers should the sand mines be set back for safety reasons?
Should compliance with best practices should be voluntary or mandatory?
If you have comments or questions for the TCEQ, please e-mail Outreach@tceq.texas.gov. Make sure to include “Sand Mining Rulemaking” in the subject line of your e-mail.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/29/2020
1188 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/image.png?fit=455%2C269&ssl=1269455adminadmin2020-11-29 12:08:222020-11-29 12:14:14UH Geology Professor Weighs in with TCEQ on BMPs Related to Sand Mining
Not long ago, Colony Ridge, the world’s largest trailer park, went to war with the City of Plum Grove. Now they are taking on Wayne Dolcefino, one of the nation’s leading. investigative journalists, too.
Somebody needs to tell Colony Ridge developer Trey Harris to give his employees some media training. When Dolcefino set his sights on Colony Ridge, several employees greeted him with hostile language. The word “threatening” comes to my mind. Surely they should know that this will only focus more media attention on their dubious business model.
Dolcefino Credentials
Dolcefino and his television shows have won:
Thirty Emmy Awards from the National Academy of Television Arts and Sciences
Five Charles Green Awards
An Edward R. Murrow award
A Jack Howard Award for investigative reporting
Numerous honors from the Associated Press and Texas Association of Broadcasters
An unprecedented three medals from the international journalism organization Investigative Reporters and Editors.
So it was ironic that Dolcefino titled his latest piece on the war between Plum Gove and Colony Ridge an “Unfair Fight.” If you want to see one of the nation’s top journalists at the top of his form, check out this story.
But Dolcefino goes way beyond those problems. Check out the revolving-door foreclosures, fake foreclosure auctions, and predatory lending practices that target the vulnerable.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/27/2020
1186 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Liberty-County-Courthouse.jpg?fit=1200%2C684&ssl=16841200adminadmin2020-11-26 23:00:342020-11-28 10:31:10Colony Ridge Declares War on Investigative Journalist, Too
It’s easy sometimes to focus so much on problems, that we forget about progress. So let’s give thanks on this fourth Thanksgiving since Hurricane Harvey. We should truly take heart in what we have accomplished in flood mitigation so far.
This small strip is all that’s left of the once mighty mouth bar on the San Jacinto West Fork. Dredgers will use it as a base of operations in the next phase of dredging.
Engineers are now evaluating the benefit/cost ratios of each. They are also securing environmental permits.
Looking west across Lake Houston Spillway
Next step: FEMA will review the preliminary engineering results. Assuming the benefit/cost ratios justify the projects, FEMA and local partners will fund construction of the selected alternative. Another $47 million has already been set aside for that, but approval is not automatic.
Lake Conroe Lowering
A big thank you to the board of the SJRA which voted earlier this spring to continue its seasonal Lake Conroe lowering policy in the face of withering protests from Lake Conroe boaters. This policy provides an additional margin of safety to those in the Lake Houston Area until other mitigation projects can be completed.
Bens Branch Clean Out
During Harvey, 13 people died after Bens Branch flooded. The now complete Kingwood Drainage Analysis showed that it had been reduced to a two year level of service. That means sediment had reduced its conveyance to the point that it will flood on a two year rain.
Even before the study was completed, Harris County Flood Control started cleaning it out in phases to restore conveyance. From upstream:
HCFCD also repaired erosion in the Kingwood Diversion Ditch between Walnut Lane and Kingwood Deer Springs Drive.
HCFCD Diversion Ditch repairs in Kingwood
The City of Houston and Harris County Flood Control also cleaned out and repaired several severely clogged ditches in Forest Cove, Kings Forest, Elm Grove, and Kings Point/Fosters Mill. There may have been more than I missed.
Grants for Additional Crucial Studies Under Consideration
The Texas Water Development Board advanced for SJRA Grant Applications for consideration in the final phase.
Would identify and create a plan for implementing potential sedimentation solutions in the Upper San Jacinto River Basin (Lake Houston watershed). It would evaluate the input, output, and storage of sediment for the entire basin as well as for sub-watersheds.
This sandbar formed overnight during Harvey and blocked the West Fork by 90% according to the Corps. Boats that drew 18 inches of water could not navigate upstream past this sandbar, which has since been removed.
Would provide for installation of rain and river/stream gages at three locations identified as critical by San Jacinto County to provide early warning information to the county during storm events.
Park Restoration
KSA restored two parks in Kingwood that were severely damaged by Harvey and Imelda. KSA repaired trails in East End Park after each storm. Some had to be relocated because of erosion of the river bank. The Eagle Point trail in East End will become a 2021 project. KSA wants to put down a geo-stabilizing system on top of approximately ten feet of sand deposited by the two storms.
Standing on five feet of sand deposited in East End Park wetlands after Harvey
At River Grove, the Army Corps of Engineers cut an opening through a massive 12-foot-high and quarter-mile-long sand bar blocking the boat ramp and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. Then KSA excavated parts of the park out from under five feet of sand, created new playing fields, restored the boardwalk, and dredged the lagoon adjacent to the boardwalk.
Dredging of lagoon and boat dock at River Grove Park
Buyouts
Harris County Flood Control started buying out townhomes damaged beyond repair in Forest Cove. At last count, they had purchased 69 of 80. Four of the remaining 11 are in various stages of the buyout process. Owners of the rest had reportedly vanished after the storm, complicating buyouts. Those may need to be condemned before HCFCD can tear down the remaining townhomes.
Edgewater Park and Trails
Harris County Precinct 4 purchased land on the northeast corner of US59 and the West Fork to create a new park called Edgewater Park. Construction was supposed to have started more than a year ago on a park headquarters building, a boat launch, and rest rooms. The County fenced off the property, then delayed construction for unspecific reasons.
Tentative plans for a new Edgewater Park at Hamblen Road and Loop 494
As part of the project, the Houston Parks Board (a private charitable organization which works with the City Parks Department) proposed building a trail that would connect the Spring Creek Greenway with the Kingwood Trail Network. Unfortunately, the trail would have to go through the townhome-buyout area. And buyouts have been delayed.
Commercial Rebuilding
Merchants have totally restored the H-E-B shopping center at Kingwood Drive and West Lake Houston Parkway. Renovations should soon be announced at other centers. Kings Harbor has been restored and new building is underway. Kingwood Village Estates and other condo/apartment complexes have been re-built. And a whole new shopping center has gone in on the southwest corner of US59 and Northpark Drive.
A new CVS store is replacing the old Chase Bank at Kingwood Drive and West Lake Houston Parkway.
Schools Back and Better
Both Kingwood High School and the St. Martha School have been renovated and flood-proofed. Kingwood College is not only back, it’s expanding.
Woodridge Village Detention Completed
Perry Homes finally finished the detention ponds on its Woodridge Village site earlier this year. They don’t have enough capacity to hold a 100-year rain. But they sure work better than what they had in 2019 when the lack of detention contributed to flooding Elm Grove Village twice. Hopefully, they will suffice until the City and County can work out a deal to purchase the property and build enough detention to hold a 100-year rain.
Woodridge Village N2 Detention Pond, the largest of five now on the site, during a heavy rain in September.
Bridges
TxDoT replaced the southbound US59 bridge and re-opened it months ahead of schedule. Union Pacific replaced its ancient bridge over the West Fork with a modern replacement. Both bridges have supports wide enough to let trees pass through in future floods. That should hopefully avoid the logjams that back water up, flooding surrounding areas.
New Union Pacific Bridge completed in May 2020 allows trees to pass through during floods.
The City has also made several repairs to the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge. They not only reinforced the supports, they leveled the road bed.
Community is Back and Better
More than three years after Harvey, the Humble/Kingwood Community is back and better. Because of dredging and ditch repairs alone, we are already safer than before Harvey, when we didn’t recognize many of the problems lurking around us.
Yes, some homes and businesses remain vacant. And much remains to do. But the future of the community is no longer in doubt. That’s thanks to the determination of residents to vowed to restore one of the most unique and livable communities in America.
Thanks also go to local leaders such as Congressman Dan Crenshaw, State Representative Dan Huberty, State Senator Brandon Creighton, Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle, HCFCD, and Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin. We shouldn’t forget Mark Micheletti and Kaaren Cambio, two SJRA directors from the Lake Houston Area and others on the SJRA board who voted for lake lowering. Nor should we forget the Lake Houston Chamber of Commerce. And especially Guy Sconzo who led the area’s recovery task force before succumbing to cancer.
My apologies to anyone I left out. Or for any worthy projects that I omitted.
Despite the fact that we still have much left to do, we should not lose sight of our achievements to date. Understanding how far we have come will sustain us in the battles that still lie ahead.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/26/2020 (Thanksgiving)
1185 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/20201105-DJI_0089.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-11-25 17:16:412020-11-25 17:50:20Giving Thanks for Flood Mitigation Projects Completed and Underway
A series of strong storm systems will converge over south Texas late this week bringing heavy rainfall. Moisture will rapidly increase Thursday afternoon and evening.
Black Friday Looking Like Bleak Friday
“We may even see development of showers over the coastal waters Thursday afternoon that begins to spread inland Thursday evening,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist. “Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase and expand in coverage and intensity early Friday. A warm front may begin to slow or even stall over southeast Texas from Friday afternoon into early Saturday. That will allow prolonged heavy rainfall due to cell training.”
Moisture profiles for the Friday afternoon into Saturday point toward heavy rainfall.
“Ingredients are in play for prolonged heavy rainfall, cell training, and possible flash flooding.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Then a cold front will approach the region at some point Saturday into early Sunday helping to focus additional rainfall. The upper level trough will slowly move eastward late Saturday into Sunday leading to decreasing rain chances and cold conditions.
Up to 5-6 inches Rainfall Possible with Hail Threat
A few of the storms on Friday and Saturday could be strong with the main threat being small hail.
Rainfall amounts over the next 5 days (mainly Friday and Saturday) will likely average 1-3 inches over the region with isolated totals of 5-6 inches possible.
Grounds are dry, so much of this rainfall will likely be beneficial. It will help mitigate increasing drought and fire-weather concerns.
Jeff Lindner
Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding
“However,” says Lindner, “should any sort of heavy rainfall axis develop and anchor over any specific location for a period of time…flash flooding could develop. The main concern would be street flooding with the heavier rainfall rates, but rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible in heavy rainfall materializes in the more urban areas.”
Five day rainfall forecastshows 3-4 inches in the Houston Area.NOAA gives Houston a marginal chance of flash flooding this weekend.
Humble ISD recently started construction of the new Kingwood Middle School. The gorgeous, new upgrade to Kingwood’s oldest middle school should open in the 2022 academic year. The new building will occupy the northern half of the site where the athletic fields used to be. After contractors finish the new building, they will then demolish the old one and rebuild the athletic fields on the southern half of the site. See below.
Temporary detention pond in foreground will service the site during construction. The new school will be built behind the old one (left).
Temporary Detention Along Cedar Knolls
Thankfully, one of the first elements of the site is a substantial detention pond on the site of an old parking lot. This pond will be temporary.
Close up of the temporary detention pond on the site of the old parking lot.
The ISD will replace it with a permanent one between Pine Terrace and the new running track. Contractors will then fill the old pond in and pave it over to replace the parking lot.
Construction Sequencing
The following diagrams show how the school district intends to sequence the construction. Contractors are currently in Phase 1B. They have built the temporary detention pond, and cleared/graded the site of the new school. After the new school is built (1C), they will demo the old one and build a second detention pond facing Pine Terrace in Step 2A. The final step (2B): rebuilding the athletic fields, filling in the temporary detention pond and repaving the parking lot.
When complete, the main entry of the new middle school should look like this.
New Kingwood Middle School: a new showcase for Kingwood. Quite a step up from the fortress-like, windowless schools built back in the Seventies and Eighties.
This video of the October 22, 2020 Humble ISD board meeting contains a presentation on the features of the new school. It promises to be a showcase for all of Kingwood. The part of the video about the new school starts around three minutes in. They discuss construction phasing starting at 13:42.
Nervous Neighbors Can Sleep Easier
A few blocks north and west of here, a cluster of homes not far from North Woodland Hills Elementary flooded during Imelda last year. While that situation was likely due to inadequate storm sewer design, I’m sure KMS neighbors will sleep easier knowing that detention ponds are a major part of the new KMS project from the start. They can certainly take some of the pressure off overloaded storm sewers.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/23/2020with help from Chris Bloch
1182 Days since Hurricane Havey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/20201123-DJI_0312.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-11-23 18:39:552020-11-23 22:23:08Construction of New Kingwood Middle School Starts With Temporary Detention Pond
Recently released subsidence maps show that excessive groundwater pumping in Montgomery County could lower the northern end of Lake Houston by two feet or more relative to the spillway at the southern end of the lake. While subsidence would lower the area near the spillway by a foot, it would lower areas near the county line even more – from 3 to 3.25 feet.
Subsidence Estimates are Conservative
And those estimates are conservative because:
Models under-predict subsidence; they currently model nothing from the Jasper Aquifer, which Quadvest, a MoCo water supplier, wants to pump heavily from (see more below).
Montgomery County factions are threatening legal action to let them pump more than their counterparts in the 15-county Groundwater Management Area #14 (GMA14) think is safe.
So how did we get to this point?
Groundwater Vs. Surface Water
The rest of the world is trying to convert to surface water to avoid subsidence. However, Simon Sequeira’s family-owned business, Quadvest, still pumps much groundwater in Montgomery County. He’s at war with the world. While others recognize subsidence and the science behind it, Sequeira denies it’s a problem – at least in Montgomery County.
At the last GMA14 meeting, lawyers were reportedly lining up to get a piece of his action and licking their lips.
Broken Promises And Legal Battles
Several years ago, Sequeira led a fight to get the board of the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District elected rather than appointed. Then he backed candidates who favored unlimited groundwater pumping and promised to Restore Affordable Water.
While groundwater is cheaper than surface water, water bills reportedly failed to come down. However, he has stopped paying the SJRA a fee designed to encourage conversion from groundwater to surface water. Sequeira says he is setting aside that money in a special fund in case he loses his legal battle. But his legal battles go far beyond the SJRA. He and the board of the Lonestar Groundwater Conservation District are also taking on the rest of GMA14. See map below.
GMA 14 includes the 15 colored counties above. Each color represents a different Conservation District.Montgomery County (dark blue) has the Lonestar Groundwater Conservation District.
Purpose of Groundwater Management Areas
GMA stands for “Groundwater Management Area.” GMAs were set up years ago, in part, to make sure that one county doesn’t hog groundwater, depriving surrounding areas and creating subsidence. So the other counties in GMA14 get to approve (or not) the groundwater withdrawal rates in Montgomery County.
They do that by defining “desired future conditions.” How much drawdown in an aquifer is acceptable? How much subsidence can people and infrastructure tolerate?
GMA14 wants Sequeira to leave 70% of the water in aquifers intact and to produce no more than 1 foot of subsidence. But the pumping levels proposed by Sequeira would produce far more subsidence, according to GMA14.
Hired-Gun Experts Defy Scientific Consensus
Ever since, Sequeira took on this fight, his hired-gun experts have been trying to prove subsidence doesn’t pose a threat in Montgomery County. Unfortunately, data and models don’t agree with him. His pumping has already created subsidence in MoCo and now threatens northern Harris County, too.
Front steps of Woodland’s homeowner Dr. Mark Meinrath in 1992 and 2014. Part of Meinrath’s home straddles a fault which subsidence triggered. Relative to the rest of his house, these front steps dropped 9.9 inches in 22 years.
Strangely enough, while science has shown – and the rest of the world believes – that unlimited groundwater pumping causes subsidence, Sequeira does not. His profit margin depends on cheap groundwater, unfettered by fees designed to encourage people to convert to surface water.
Five Alternative Plans Considered
Sequeira and company originally proposed three alternative plans to GMA14 that involved pumping enough groundwater to cause:
900 feet of decline in the Jasper Aquifer
700 feet of decline in the Jasper Aquifer
250 feet of decline in the Jasper Aquifer (Similar to “Run D” scenario, modeled below.)
Of those three, GMA14 only considered the last. GMA14 also came back with two more scenarios. They involved pumping even less groundwater:
115,000 acre-feet per year (Also similar to Lone Star’s “Run D” scenario. See below).
97,000 acre-feet per year
61,000 acre-feet per year
Note: Lone Star and GMA14 use different criteria to describe the volume pumped. GMA14 uses acre-feet-per-year instead of feet-of-decline in a specific aquifer. Nevertheless, experts say Sequeira’s last scenario is roughly comparable GMA14’s first.
The two sides are still arguing about how much can be pumped safely. And that’s why the lawyers are drooling.
Models Show Unacceptable Subsidence from Sequeira’s Least-Damaging Plan
Subsidence can alter the landscape in ways that cause water to collect in areas that otherwise might not flood. The maps below model projected subsidence in south Montgomery and northern Harris Counties. And we know that this model under-predicts subsidence. That’s because it doesn’t model ANY subsidence from the Jasper aquifer.
Sequeira’s least-damaging plan would cause up to 3.25 feet of subsidence in southern Montgomery County and up to 3 feet in northern Harris County, according to GMA14. See below.
Pumping 115,000 acre feet per year would cause up to 3.25 feet of subsidence in southern MoCo. That’s far more than the 1-foot in the Desired Future Conditions definedby GMA14.The same amount of pumping would cause up 3 feet of subsidence in parts of Kingwood and Huffman, and a foot or more in much of the rest of Harris County.
Effect on Humble, Kingwood, Atascocita, Huffman Areas
If you live in the Lake Houston Area and you stare at that last subsidence map long enough, eventually you will come to a jaw-dropping realization.
The Lake Houston spillway is only subsiding by a foot. But the headwaters of the lake are subsiding up to 3 feet. Imagine filling a bowl with water and then tilting it toward one side.
Homes and businesses in the headwaters of Lake Houston will be lowered2 feet relative to the spillway.
That’s a huge amount. Those who built homes a foot above the hundred year flood-plain could find themselves a foot below it. Those who had a couple inches of water in their homes during Harvey could have more than two feet in a similar future event because of subsidence.
Battle Lines Drawn
So the battle lines are drawn. Sequeira wants to allow up to 900 feet of decline in the Jasper aquifer. And GMA14 wants no more than 1 foot of subsidence with 70% of the aquifer intact. That would mean pumping less than 100,000 acre feet per year.
The presence of so many lawyers in the last GMA14 meeting reportedly has the smaller groundwater management districts nervous. One observer used the word “intimidated.” Some don’t have financial resources to fight Sequeira.
And that should make every homeowner in the Lake Houston Area nervous, too.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/22/2020
1181 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public policy and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas
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The Harris County Commissioners Court established the Community Flood Resilience Task Force (CFRTF) as a multidisciplinary, community-driven body. Its purpose: to ensure Harris County implements equitable flood resilience projects that respect community priorities. The group needs 11 more members who represent the geographic, gender, age, racial, and ethnic diversity of Harris County. These are all are unpaid, pro-bono positions. Learn more about the task force, its goals, responsibilities and composition here.
Represent the geographic, gender, age, racial, and ethnic diversity of Harris County
Demonstrate interest in and have a commitment to serving the community
Contribute meaningful time and effort to achieving the purpose and objectives of the CFRTF. “Meaningful time and effort” includes, but is not limited to, reviewing provided materials, contributing ideas and thoughts to flood resilience discussions, and meeting at least once every other month for a total of at least six (6) times per year.
If possible, members must also meet one or more of the following qualifications:
Represent one or more communities adversely impacted by flooding in Harris County.
Have knowledge of or interest in:
Innovative and environmentally sustainable approaches to flood risk mitigation
Equitable approaches to flood resilience.
Among the skillsets that the task force needs:
Public Housing
Public Health
Engineering/Construction
Urban Design/Planning
Flood-Risk Mitigation
Environmental Sustainability
Grassroots Community Organization
Equity and Social Justice
CFRTF Bylaws
Task force bylaws balance the diverse range of interests in Harris County. To learn more about the purpose and responsibilities of the task force, please review the following.
Final Guide to the Bylaws, a summary of the key elements English, Spanish
If you need the application translated, please email the CFRTF.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/21/2020
1180 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 429 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/CFRTF.jpg?fit=1200%2C685&ssl=16851200adminadmin2020-11-21 11:52:352020-11-21 12:26:23Harris County Flood Task Force Looking for 11 More Members, How to Apply
