Forecasters predicted a higher than average hurricane season. We will find out whether they are right in the next three months – the peak of the season. But the rain train has already started.
Distribution of tropical storms and hurricanes by date in last hundred years.Source: NOAA.
The tropical wave that moved onshore yesterday produced 2 to 4 inches of rain over League City this morning.
Meanwhile, two more storms are stacked up out in the Gulf and Atlantic. (See below.) The National Hurricane Center gives the orange one a 40% chance of developing and red one a 90% chance in the next five days.
Source: National Hurricane Center as of 3PM Tuesday 7/21/2020.As of 6:30 PM on 7/21/2020 the NHC has upgraded the central Atlantic Storm to a tropical depression, likely to enter the Caribbean this weekend. Source: NOAAOne model has the storm building into a hurricane. However, most don’t at this time. The intensity forecast for days 4-5 is low confidence according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist.
Tropical Wave Likely to Arrive Friday
NOAA says that a tropical wave currently over Cuba is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba. NHC expects this system to reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. Tropical formation chance currently equals 40 percent.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, says, “Regardless of development, widespread showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the upper TX coast as early as late Thursday evening. More likely the impact will be Friday and lasting into Saturday. Some of this rainfall will be heavy. Winds will increase into the 15-25kt range with seas building to 3-5 feet by late Thursday and likely higher on Friday.”
Here’s how it all looks on the GOES-East satellite imagery in earth colors. Note the system about to enter the Gulf and the steady stream of clouds rolling off the western coast of Africa and across the Atlantic.
Note clouds over western Cuba and another mass starting to spin in mid-Atlantic.Closer shot with land masses outlined.
I nicknamed the steady stream of clouds “the rain train.”
Trade Winds Powered Global Commerce for Centuries
Technically, though, they’re called the trade winds. The term has an interesting origin. For centuries, they powered trade between Europe and the Americas. This time of year, sailors from Europe heading to the Americas would first sail south to Western Africa. There, they would pick up the trade winds (visible in the photos above) that powered them west.
After completing their trade, they would head north along the Eastern Coast of the U.S. and pick up a return flow that would take them back to Europe.
It was a reliable, but often deadly route.
Of the 691 ships identified by the Spanish researchers that were lost between between 1492 and 1898, 91.2% were sunk by severe weather – mainly tropical storms and hurricanes.
There’s an island off the coast of Honduras called Guanaja. The Spanish called it Isla de Los Pinos. Isle of Pines. It’s one of the few islands in the Caribbean with native pine trees. Columbus visited there on his fourth voyage. And according to local legend, Spanish sailors would often stop there after crossing the Atlantic to replenish their masts.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/21/2020, updated at 6:30 pm with info on TD7.
1057 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Atlantic-Geocolor.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=112001200adminadmin2020-07-21 16:30:422020-07-21 18:32:15Get Ready for the Rain Train
Small part of an estimated 15 acres still without vegetative cover.Photo taken 7/19/2020.
Moreover the company still has not removed rusting equipment.
Excavator and fork lift parked near entranceon 7/19/2020
13 Previous Investigations
TCEQ investigated the plant 13 previous times in the last five years.
The Texas Concrete Plum Grove Plant was already part of an active enforcement case (#57254) due to an unauthorized discharge and for failing to meet final stabilization requirements before terminating coverage under the Texas Discharge Pollutant Elimination System (TPDES).
Final stabilization requirements include the planting of “vegetative cover” to retard erosion before abandoning the site. Texas Concrete ceased operations at the site and pulled down its signs. However, approximately 15 acres of the site remain unplanted; they have no vegetation.
According to the TCEQ report, the company claims it planted grass, but the grass failed to establish. A company spokesperson was not available for comment.
The definition of final stabilization is as follows: “All soil disturbing activities at the site have been completed and a uniform (e.g. evenly distributed, without large bare areas) perennial vegetative cover with a density of 70% of the native background vegetative cover for the area has been established on all unpaved areas and areas not covered by permanent structures, or equivalent permanent stabilization measures (such as the use of riprap, gabions, or geotextiles) have been employed.”
TCEQ did not respond to a request for an explanation of how it measured 70% of the native background vegetative cover. Background vegetation is this case is a dense pine forest, not grass.
Rusting Equipment Allegedly Sold, But Still on Site
The company also seemingly abandoned rusting equipment on the site. The equipment includes a dredge, excavators, front loaders, dump trucks and trailers. Since the TCEQ’s followup investigations in June 2020, the company removed several dump trucks, but the vast majority of the other equipment remains – despite assurances from the company that it had all been sold. Neither the TCEQ, nor Texas Concrete has volunteered when the company will remove the equipment.
Weeds growing around tanker testify to how long it has remained there.7/19/2020Dredge still on site as of 7/19/2020Cyanobacteria have taken over some of the ponds at the abandoned Texas Concrete Mine. 7/20/2020. The pond was not tested for cyanotoxins.
No Additional Leaks Found
There is some good news from the latest investigation. Texas Concrete plugged previous breaches in its dikes. The investigator did not find any new unauthorized discharges, or discharges that failed to meet water quality specs.
Approaching Peak of Hurricane Season and Year Wasted
Still, three tropical disturbances making their way across the Atlantic at this moment make a stark reminder of why abandonment requirements exist. This site has sat unused for approximately a year. That should have been plenty of time to establish grass at a minimum and to restore this site.
Texas Concrete brags that it is a member of TACA and that TxDoT is one of its customers.
If the State of Texas is serious about enforcing environmental regulations, now would be a good time to start. And this would be a good place.
The only thing that separates neighborhood kids from playing in the sand, climbing on the equipment, and swimming in the colorful water. The security guard sign is a bluff.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/20/2020
1056 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 305 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/20200719-DJI_0178.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-07-20 16:51:282020-07-20 16:56:23TCEQ Complaints Against Texas Concrete Plum Grove Plant Still Unresolved
Hopefully, by now, regular readers of this website should know all about FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer and be able to identify whether they are in a recognized flood zone. But fully understanding flood risk can be far more complicated.
In a heavy rain, will water run toward or away from your home? Exactly how far below the 500-year flood plain is a given location? When water at a river gage reaches X, how much water will you be standing in at Y?
Every week, people alert me to new online tools that help assess different aspects of flood risk. Last week, I learned about three.
Elevation Profiling in Google Earth Pro
One is actually a feature within Google Earth Pro called “Elevation Profiling.” Many parts of Houston are so flat, it’s often hard to tell with the naked eye whether your home is at the high point or low point in your neighborhood. Which way does the land slope? How steep is the grade? What are the average and maximum grades? These are all good things to know if you want to make sure you don’t buy at the bottom of a bowl or waterfall.
From the NW corner of Woodridge Village to the home on Right Way, the elevation dropped approximately 16 feet. The average slope is 1.4%.
Elevation dropped 15 feet along the eastern border of Woodridge, 12 feet along the western border and 3 feet from west to east along Taylor Gully. No matter which way you look at it, everything on Woodridge sloped in their direction.
To use this feature in Google Earth Pro:
Select the Path tool.
Define a path. It can contain multiple points. For instance, you might want to trace the elevation along street that curves.
Highlight the path in the side bar.
In the Edit menu, select “Show Elevation Profile.”
The red box will then appear at the bottom of the screen with the profile and related information.
Running your cursor across the elevation profile will highlight the corresponding point on the satellite image and show you its elevation, distance from the start, and grade from the start.
Houston Public Works offers a variation on FEMA’s floodplain maps. It shows you in one foot increments how far below the 500-year floodplain (the City’s new benchmark for building) you are at any given location in the City. Are you barely in it? Or more than five feet below it? Knowing the answer can help you assess how much risk you’re taking on when you buy a new home. Said another way, it gives you much more detail.
National Weather Service Inundation Viewer
Want to know how deep the water will be in your home when a river gage near you reaches a certain level? This is the tool for you.
Gage is at the green marker. Click on any point in the blue, and it will tell you how deep water will get at that point for a selected gage height (left).
Start by clicking on Inundation and a gage height in the left hand column. As you click on different levels, watch the floodwaters expand or contract. (This shows the extent of floodwaters when the gage is at 66 feet.) Then click on another point within the floodwaters. A pop up box tells you how deep the floodwater will get at that location.
As you click on different gage heights in the left column, watch the water increase or decrease within the pop up box. At a gage height of 78 feet, people at the red dot could expect to be under 12 to 14 feet of water.
Locate your gage then click on Inundation in the left column.
Next, select a level of flooding.
Within categories (Minor, Moderate, Major), you can select one foot increments.
Then on the map, click on any other nearby location.
Within a pop-up box, it will tell you how much water you can expect for any given gage height.
This information will be useful in deciding when and whether to evacuate. For instance, clicking on a bridge will tell you at what point it goes under water.
Clicking on other tabs, will show you hydrographic and probability information, and more.
I look forward to the expansion of this powerful tool to other gages.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/19/2020
1055 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 304 after Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Innundation-A.jpg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=17621200adminadmin2020-07-19 20:33:212020-07-19 20:53:13Three Online Tools To Help You Better Understand Flood Risk
Get Ready for the Rain Train
Forecasters predicted a higher than average hurricane season. We will find out whether they are right in the next three months – the peak of the season. But the rain train has already started.
The tropical wave that moved onshore yesterday produced 2 to 4 inches of rain over League City this morning.
Other Storms Already Stacking Up in Atlantic
Meanwhile, two more storms are stacked up out in the Gulf and Atlantic. (See below.) The National Hurricane Center gives the orange one a 40% chance of developing and red one a 90% chance in the next five days.
Tropical Wave Likely to Arrive Friday
NOAA says that a tropical wave currently over Cuba is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba. NHC expects this system to reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. Tropical formation chance currently equals 40 percent.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, says, “Regardless of development, widespread showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the upper TX coast as early as late Thursday evening. More likely the impact will be Friday and lasting into Saturday. Some of this rainfall will be heavy. Winds will increase into the 15-25kt range with seas building to 3-5 feet by late Thursday and likely higher on Friday.”
90% Chance of Formation for Atlantic Storm
NHC also expects that system midway in the Atlantic (now Tropical Depression 7) to get better organized. However they also say that less favorable conditions could limit additional development of the system by the weekend. Formation chance: 90 percent.
Here’s how it all looks on the GOES-East satellite imagery in earth colors. Note the system about to enter the Gulf and the steady stream of clouds rolling off the western coast of Africa and across the Atlantic.
I nicknamed the steady stream of clouds “the rain train.”
Trade Winds Powered Global Commerce for Centuries
Technically, though, they’re called the trade winds. The term has an interesting origin. For centuries, they powered trade between Europe and the Americas. This time of year, sailors from Europe heading to the Americas would first sail south to Western Africa. There, they would pick up the trade winds (visible in the photos above) that powered them west.
After completing their trade, they would head north along the Eastern Coast of the U.S. and pick up a return flow that would take them back to Europe.
Of the 691 ships identified by the Spanish researchers that were lost between between 1492 and 1898, 91.2% were sunk by severe weather – mainly tropical storms and hurricanes.
Without satellites, hurricanes often caught them by surprise. The storms could snap their masts, at which point they would be “dead in the water.”
There’s an island off the coast of Honduras called Guanaja. The Spanish called it Isla de Los Pinos. Isle of Pines. It’s one of the few islands in the Caribbean with native pine trees. Columbus visited there on his fourth voyage. And according to local legend, Spanish sailors would often stop there after crossing the Atlantic to replenish their masts.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/21/2020, updated at 6:30 pm with info on TD7.
1057 Days since Hurricane Harvey
TCEQ Complaints Against Texas Concrete Plum Grove Plant Still Unresolved
On July 14, 2020, the TCEQ completed another investigation into the Texas Concrete Plum Grove Plant. The investigator confirmed that it remains in violation of stabilization requirements before abandonment.
Moreover the company still has not removed rusting equipment.
13 Previous Investigations
The Texas Concrete Plum Grove Plant was already part of an active enforcement case (#57254) due to an unauthorized discharge and for failing to meet final stabilization requirements before terminating coverage under the Texas Discharge Pollutant Elimination System (TPDES).
Meaning of “Final Stabilization Requirements”
Final stabilization requirements include the planting of “vegetative cover” to retard erosion before abandoning the site. Texas Concrete ceased operations at the site and pulled down its signs. However, approximately 15 acres of the site remain unplanted; they have no vegetation.
According to the TCEQ report, the company claims it planted grass, but the grass failed to establish. A company spokesperson was not available for comment.
The definition of final stabilization is as follows: “All soil disturbing activities at the site have been completed and a uniform (e.g. evenly distributed, without large bare areas) perennial vegetative cover with a density of 70% of the native background vegetative cover for the area has been established on all unpaved areas and areas not covered by permanent structures, or equivalent permanent stabilization measures (such as the use of riprap, gabions, or geotextiles) have been employed.”
TCEQ did not respond to a request for an explanation of how it measured 70% of the native background vegetative cover. Background vegetation is this case is a dense pine forest, not grass.
Rusting Equipment Allegedly Sold, But Still on Site
The company also seemingly abandoned rusting equipment on the site. The equipment includes a dredge, excavators, front loaders, dump trucks and trailers. Since the TCEQ’s followup investigations in June 2020, the company removed several dump trucks, but the vast majority of the other equipment remains – despite assurances from the company that it had all been sold. Neither the TCEQ, nor Texas Concrete has volunteered when the company will remove the equipment.
No Additional Leaks Found
There is some good news from the latest investigation. Texas Concrete plugged previous breaches in its dikes. The investigator did not find any new unauthorized discharges, or discharges that failed to meet water quality specs.
Approaching Peak of Hurricane Season and Year Wasted
Still, three tropical disturbances making their way across the Atlantic at this moment make a stark reminder of why abandonment requirements exist. This site has sat unused for approximately a year. That should have been plenty of time to establish grass at a minimum and to restore this site.
Texas Concrete brags that it is a member of TACA and that TxDoT is one of its customers.
If the State of Texas is serious about enforcing environmental regulations, now would be a good time to start. And this would be a good place.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/20/2020
1056 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 305 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Three Online Tools To Help You Better Understand Flood Risk
Hopefully, by now, regular readers of this website should know all about FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer and be able to identify whether they are in a recognized flood zone. But fully understanding flood risk can be far more complicated.
In a heavy rain, will water run toward or away from your home? Exactly how far below the 500-year flood plain is a given location? When water at a river gage reaches X, how much water will you be standing in at Y?
Every week, people alert me to new online tools that help assess different aspects of flood risk. Last week, I learned about three.
Elevation Profiling in Google Earth Pro
One is actually a feature within Google Earth Pro called “Elevation Profiling.” Many parts of Houston are so flat, it’s often hard to tell with the naked eye whether your home is at the high point or low point in your neighborhood. Which way does the land slope? How steep is the grade? What are the average and maximum grades? These are all good things to know if you want to make sure you don’t buy at the bottom of a bowl or waterfall.
For yesterday’s post about a family that flooded in North Kingwood Forest, I checked the elevation profile between various points in Woodridge Village and their neighborhood.
Elevation dropped 15 feet along the eastern border of Woodridge, 12 feet along the western border and 3 feet from west to east along Taylor Gully. No matter which way you look at it, everything on Woodridge sloped in their direction.
To use this feature in Google Earth Pro:
Houston Public Works Floodplain Map
Houston Public Works offers a variation on FEMA’s floodplain maps. It shows you in one foot increments how far below the 500-year floodplain (the City’s new benchmark for building) you are at any given location in the City. Are you barely in it? Or more than five feet below it? Knowing the answer can help you assess how much risk you’re taking on when you buy a new home. Said another way, it gives you much more detail.
National Weather Service Inundation Viewer
Want to know how deep the water will be in your home when a river gage near you reaches a certain level? This is the tool for you.
Start by clicking on Inundation and a gage height in the left hand column. As you click on different levels, watch the floodwaters expand or contract. (This shows the extent of floodwaters when the gage is at 66 feet.) Then click on another point within the floodwaters. A pop up box tells you how deep the floodwater will get at that location.
This viewer is not available for all gages. However, it is available for two in the Lake Houston Area. The two are at US59 on the West Fork and FM1485 on the East Fork. There are five others in the Houston region.
Here’s how it works:
Clicking on other tabs, will show you hydrographic and probability information, and more.
I look forward to the expansion of this powerful tool to other gages.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/19/2020
1055 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 304 after Imelda