Overnight, TD 8 turned into Tropical Storm Hannah. Hannah’s track continues to take it toward Corpus and the Rio Grande Valley. The shift in direction compared to earlier projections means wind and rainfall threats to Houston are reduced. However, tropical storm warnings remain up for most of the Texas coastline, including San Luis Pass to the Rio Grande Valley.
Rainfall Amounts
Hanna should produce heavy rains, but the heaviest will fall in South Texas.
While portions of south Texas could see 10 to 15 inches of rain this weekend, rainfall amounts in the Houston area should average 3-5 inches along the coast and 1-3 inches inland.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Infrared imagery shows building of Hannah.
Rainfall accumulation for storm durationTotal accumulation in north Harris County is likely to be only 1-2 inches from Hannah.
Of course, that should hold down the risk of flash flooding in the Lake Houston Area, but Lindner says the Weather Service will likely issue flash flood warnings for portions of SE Texas later today. NOAA currently gives the north Houston area only a marginal chance of flash flooding.
Houston has only a 5-10% chance of flash flooding from Hannah.
Hannah Could Strengthen to 65 MPH
National Hurricane Center expects Hanna to strengthen and bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast. NHC brings Hanna to a 65mph tropical storm at landfall. How long it takes any inner core to form today will determine if Hanna could potentially become a weak hurricane as suggested by some of the hurricane models.
Most tropical storm force winds should miss Houston.
Winds in the Lake Houston Area will not be that strong, of course, but could still reach 20 mph, according to forecasters.
Not the Weekend for Offshore Boating
Lindner says, “Wave heights near the center of Hanna will build today. As the system intensifies, waves could reach 10-15 ft tonight. Some of this wave action will move toward the upper TX coast with seas building today into the 4-6 foot range and 6-9 foot range tonight into Saturday. Large swells generated by the system will result in wave run-up and elevated tides of 1-3 feet starting later today and lasting into much of Saturday along the upper and mid TX coast. Minor coastal flooding will be possible at times of high tides in the typical sensitive areas along the coast.”
Forecast track shows Hannah coming onshore Saturday at 1PM in south Texas.
In summary, the brunt of the storm should miss us. But we will still get sideswiped.
Tropical Depression 8 is very close to becoming a tropical storm, likely later this evening or early Friday. TD 8 is continuing to move toward the WNW at 8mph. However, the track of the storm has shifted slightly south. That should reduce both rainfall and winds in the Houston area, compared to yesterday’s forecast.
Regardless, tropical storm warnings are issued for the TX coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. And a tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from San Luis Pass to High Island.
Landfall Now Predicted Between Corpus and Rockport
NHC now predicts landfall between Corpus and Rockport around mid-day on Saturday as an intensifying tropical storm, packing winds up to 60 mph. Some models predict it could become a hurricane.
3-5 Inches Still Possible South of I-10
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist now predicts, “3-5 inches of widespread rainfall south of I-10 with isolated higher totals. “Much of this will likely come from various feeder bands. Maximum totals of 10 inches or greater will be possible from Matagorda Bay southward.”
Winds in 20-30 mph Range
Winds across the Houston region could increase to 20-30 mph by early Friday. Higher winds will occur farther southwest. Says Lindner, “Sustained tropical storm force winds will be most likely near/around Matagorda Bay on Saturday with 40-50mph. Winds of 50-60mph will be likely in the portion of the mid coast from Corpus Christi to Seadrift.”
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun advisories on Tropical Depression 8 in the central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to High Island including Matagorda and Galveston Bays.
Recent model guidance brings the system to the Texas coast with 48-60 hours over the Gulf waters. Some show the system over Gulf water for 72 hours as the system slows near the coast. NHC forecasts a 45mph tropical storm slamming the middle Texas coast on Saturday.
Houston should be on the dirty side of the storm.
If this does reach tropical-storm strength, it would be named Hannah. Ironically, another H storm hit Houston called Harvey in 2017. But Harvey happened a full month LATER in the season.
Next USAF reconnaissance flight will depart at 4:45 a.m. CDT tomorrow morning and will determine if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.
Source: NHC
Rainfall
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, says predicted rainfall rates have increased. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches will be possible along and generally south of HWY 105 with higher isolated totals. North of HWY 105 rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible. There is likely to be swaths of higher rainfall amounts where training bands develop, but where this may occur is difficult to pinpoint at this time range.
Channel 13 tonight predicts that some areas west of Houston could record a three day total of 14-15 inches of rain because of the slow speed of the storm.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2020 at 10:30 p.m.
1058 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/image001-4.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-07-22 22:28:492020-07-22 22:48:27Tropical Storm Predicted to Make Landfall on Saturday; Rainfall Estimates Increased
TS Hannah Continues to Veer toward Valley; Threat to Houston Reduced
Overnight, TD 8 turned into Tropical Storm Hannah. Hannah’s track continues to take it toward Corpus and the Rio Grande Valley. The shift in direction compared to earlier projections means wind and rainfall threats to Houston are reduced. However, tropical storm warnings remain up for most of the Texas coastline, including San Luis Pass to the Rio Grande Valley.
Rainfall Amounts
Hanna should produce heavy rains, but the heaviest will fall in South Texas.
Of course, that should hold down the risk of flash flooding in the Lake Houston Area, but Lindner says the Weather Service will likely issue flash flood warnings for portions of SE Texas later today. NOAA currently gives the north Houston area only a marginal chance of flash flooding.
Hannah Could Strengthen to 65 MPH
National Hurricane Center expects Hanna to strengthen and bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast. NHC brings Hanna to a 65mph tropical storm at landfall. How long it takes any inner core to form today will determine if Hanna could potentially become a weak hurricane as suggested by some of the hurricane models.
Winds in the Lake Houston Area will not be that strong, of course, but could still reach 20 mph, according to forecasters.
Not the Weekend for Offshore Boating
Lindner says, “Wave heights near the center of Hanna will build today. As the system intensifies, waves could reach 10-15 ft tonight. Some of this wave action will move toward the upper TX coast with seas building today into the 4-6 foot range and 6-9 foot range tonight into Saturday. Large swells generated by the system will result in wave run-up and elevated tides of 1-3 feet starting later today and lasting into much of Saturday along the upper and mid TX coast. Minor coastal flooding will be possible at times of high tides in the typical sensitive areas along the coast.”
In summary, the brunt of the storm should miss us. But we will still get sideswiped.
The organization of Hanna will need to be monitored closely today and tonight. For up-to-the-minute status reports and forecasts, visit the National Hurricane Center’s website.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/24/2020 at 9:15 am
1060 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Latest Guidance from NHC Shows Tropical Storm Veering Southwest
Tropical Depression 8 is very close to becoming a tropical storm, likely later this evening or early Friday. TD 8 is continuing to move toward the WNW at 8mph. However, the track of the storm has shifted slightly south. That should reduce both rainfall and winds in the Houston area, compared to yesterday’s forecast.
Landfall Now Predicted Between Corpus and Rockport
NHC now predicts landfall between Corpus and Rockport around mid-day on Saturday as an intensifying tropical storm, packing winds up to 60 mph. Some models predict it could become a hurricane.
3-5 Inches Still Possible South of I-10
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist now predicts, “3-5 inches of widespread rainfall south of I-10 with isolated higher totals. “Much of this will likely come from various feeder bands. Maximum totals of 10 inches or greater will be possible from Matagorda Bay southward.”
Winds in 20-30 mph Range
Winds across the Houston region could increase to 20-30 mph by early Friday. Higher winds will occur farther southwest. Says Lindner, “Sustained tropical storm force winds will be most likely near/around Matagorda Bay on Saturday with 40-50mph. Winds of 50-60mph will be likely in the portion of the mid coast from Corpus Christi to Seadrift.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2020 at 5 p.m.
1059 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tropical Storm Predicted to Make Landfall on Saturday; Rainfall Estimates Increased
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun advisories on Tropical Depression 8 in the central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to High Island including Matagorda and Galveston Bays.
Recent model guidance brings the system to the Texas coast with 48-60 hours over the Gulf waters. Some show the system over Gulf water for 72 hours as the system slows near the coast. NHC forecasts a 45mph tropical storm slamming the middle Texas coast on Saturday.
Houston should be on the dirty side of the storm.
If this does reach tropical-storm strength, it would be named Hannah. Ironically, another H storm hit Houston called Harvey in 2017. But Harvey happened a full month LATER in the season.
Next USAF reconnaissance flight will depart at 4:45 a.m. CDT tomorrow morning and will determine if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.
Rainfall
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, says predicted rainfall rates have increased. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches will be possible along and generally south of HWY 105 with higher isolated totals. North of HWY 105 rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible. There is likely to be swaths of higher rainfall amounts where training bands develop, but where this may occur is difficult to pinpoint at this time range.
Channel 13 tonight predicts that some areas west of Houston could record a three day total of 14-15 inches of rain because of the slow speed of the storm.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2020 at 10:30 p.m.
1058 Days since Hurricane Harvey