The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just upgraded Tropical Depression 19 to Tropical Storm Sally. And they will likely upgrade it again to a Hurricane on Monday.
Miami and Tampa Bay radar currently show a defined center of circulation and deep convection across much of Florida Bay and the Florida Keys.
The National Hurricane Center is now tracking seven storms lined up in the Atlantic.
Sally’s Likely Landfall in Louisiana
Sally’s cone of uncertainty no longer extends as far west as Houston. For now. See below.
On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday. Sally will then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday.
Hurricane Predicted
Maximum sustained winds have already increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Sally will likely become a hurricane by late Monday. (Note how the S’s turn to H’s in the cone map above.)
Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) south and southeast of the center.
Intensity guidance is inching up some. Conditions over the eastern Gulf of Mexico make a hurricane likely at landfall. “In fact,” says the NHC, “the hurricane models show significant intensification of Sally. This will need to be closely monitored over the next 1-2 days.”
Rainfall
Florida
Sally should produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through tonight. NHC expects 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to Tampa Bay.
This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across Southern and Central Florida.
Central Gulf
Through Tuesday, NHC expects Sally to produce rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast between Florida and SE Louisiana. NHC predicts 2 to 4 inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.
Flooding Likely
NHC says, “This is expected to be a slow-moving system. Sally will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “Nearly all guidance slows Sally to around 5mph as the system approaches the coast. That will result in prolonged impacts and potentially devastating amounts of rainfall.” Remember Harvey?
Stay Alert
Even though Houston is outside of the cone of uncertainty today, stay alert. Remember how the tracks of Marco and Laura kept shifting hourly. The NHC cautions that “The average NHC track error at 96 hours is around 150 miles. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/12/2020
1110 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/two_atl_2d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2020-09-12 15:22:122020-09-12 15:22:53TD 19 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Sally
As of 5PM on Friday afternoon, September 11, Topical Depression 19 had formed off the east coast of Florida and was headed for the Gulf. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Deep convection has developed near or over the likely location of the surface center. The system is overall fairly large in nature with several curved bands.”
TS Watch Already Issued for the SE Florida Coast
The National Hurricane Center has already issued a tropical storm warning for the SE coast of Florida.
Tropical storm or hurricane watches will likely be required tomorrow for portions of the central US Gulf Coast.
National Hurricane Center
Track
Tropical Depression 19 is moving toward the WNW around 8mph. This motion should continue for the next 24-48 hours. There is some uncertainty in the forecast track, but right now the depression is forecast to approach the central US Gulf coast early next week. It could ravage some of the same areas hit by Hurricane Laura.
Cone of uncertainty for TD19. Remember, the storm has an equal chance of tracking anywhere within the cone. The cone does not indicate the storm’s width.Tropical storm force wind probabilities for the next 120 hours (3 days). As of 2PM Friday, September 11.
Intensity
According to Linder, “Tropical Depression 19 could already be nearing topical-storm intensity. Conditions ahead of the system look generally favorable for development with light shear, a good moisture envelope, and very warm sea surface temperatures.” He adds that models diverge in their forecasts: some bring the system to a hurricane while many show a stronger tropical storm. NHC brings the system to a 70mph tropical storm. “But it is very possible that a hurricane will be approaching the central US Gulf coast early next week,” says Lindner.
Monitor weather forecasts closely for the next few days.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 11, 2020
1109 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 19 years since the Twin Tower Attacks
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/205735_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-09-11 18:01:592020-09-11 18:02:11Tropical Depression 19 Predicted to Become Tropical Storm or Possibly Hurricane In Gulf Next Week
The project area includes Cypress Lane and Palmetto Lane. The map above shows the project limits highlighted in red.
Scope of Work
The scope of work for the ditch rehabilitation project includes:
Regrading and re-establishing of the roadside ditches
Replacing of the culverts and resetting them to match the flow line of the ditch
Replacing the driveway where the culverts are replaced
Increasing the capacity of any culverts less than 24 inches in diameter
Removing any unpermitted culverts or other encroachments in the City Right of Way.
Project Approximately on Schedule
I drove by the project earlier in the week and it appeared that the City had completed approximately a quarter to a third of the project in about a quarter of the time. That means they are on schedule or slightly ahead.
Ditch rehab already completed in Forest Cove
From the looks of things, it appears the City is doing exactly what it promised.
For More Information
For more information, please contact Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin’s office at (832) 393-3008 or via email at districte@houstontx.gov.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2020
1108 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/20200902-RJR_0221.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-09-10 17:02:562020-09-10 17:03:13City Making Good Progress on Forest Cove Ditch Rehabilitation Project
TD 19 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Sally
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just upgraded Tropical Depression 19 to Tropical Storm Sally. And they will likely upgrade it again to a Hurricane on Monday.
Miami and Tampa Bay radar currently show a defined center of circulation and deep convection across much of Florida Bay and the Florida Keys.
Sally’s Likely Landfall in Louisiana
On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday. Sally will then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday.
Hurricane Predicted
Maximum sustained winds have already increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Sally will likely become a hurricane by late Monday. (Note how the S’s turn to H’s in the cone map above.)
Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) south and southeast of the center.
Intensity guidance is inching up some. Conditions over the eastern Gulf of Mexico make a hurricane likely at landfall. “In fact,” says the NHC, “the hurricane models show significant intensification of Sally. This will need to be closely monitored over the next 1-2 days.”
Rainfall
Florida
Sally should produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through tonight. NHC expects 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to Tampa Bay.
This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across Southern and Central Florida.
Central Gulf
Through Tuesday, NHC expects Sally to produce rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast between Florida and SE Louisiana. NHC predicts 2 to 4 inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.
Flooding Likely
NHC says, “This is expected to be a slow-moving system. Sally will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “Nearly all guidance slows Sally to around 5mph as the system approaches the coast. That will result in prolonged impacts and potentially devastating amounts of rainfall.” Remember Harvey?
Stay Alert
Even though Houston is outside of the cone of uncertainty today, stay alert. Remember how the tracks of Marco and Laura kept shifting hourly. The NHC cautions that “The average NHC track error at 96 hours is around 150 miles. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/12/2020
1110 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tropical Depression 19 Predicted to Become Tropical Storm or Possibly Hurricane In Gulf Next Week
As of 5PM on Friday afternoon, September 11, Topical Depression 19 had formed off the east coast of Florida and was headed for the Gulf. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Deep convection has developed near or over the likely location of the surface center. The system is overall fairly large in nature with several curved bands.”
TS Watch Already Issued for the SE Florida Coast
The National Hurricane Center has already issued a tropical storm warning for the SE coast of Florida.
Track
Tropical Depression 19 is moving toward the WNW around 8mph. This motion should continue for the next 24-48 hours. There is some uncertainty in the forecast track, but right now the depression is forecast to approach the central US Gulf coast early next week. It could ravage some of the same areas hit by Hurricane Laura.
Intensity
According to Linder, “Tropical Depression 19 could already be nearing topical-storm intensity. Conditions ahead of the system look generally favorable for development with light shear, a good moisture envelope, and very warm sea surface temperatures.” He adds that models diverge in their forecasts: some bring the system to a hurricane while many show a stronger tropical storm. NHC brings the system to a 70mph tropical storm. “But it is very possible that a hurricane will be approaching the central US Gulf coast early next week,” says Lindner.
Monitor weather forecasts closely for the next few days.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 11, 2020
1109 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 19 years since the Twin Tower Attacks
City Making Good Progress on Forest Cove Ditch Rehabilitation Project
In late July, the City of Houston’s Stormwater Action Team began a ditch rehabilitation project in Forest Cove. The City predicted the project would take until November 24, weather permitting.
The project area includes Cypress Lane and Palmetto Lane. The map above shows the project limits highlighted in red.
Scope of Work
The scope of work for the ditch rehabilitation project includes:
Project Approximately on Schedule
I drove by the project earlier in the week and it appeared that the City had completed approximately a quarter to a third of the project in about a quarter of the time. That means they are on schedule or slightly ahead.
From the looks of things, it appears the City is doing exactly what it promised.
For More Information
For more information, please contact Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin’s office at (832) 393-3008 or via email at districte@houstontx.gov.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2020
1108 Days after Hurricane Harvey