City Making Good Progress on Forest Cove Ditch Rehabilitation Project

In late July, the City of Houston’s Stormwater Action Team began a ditch rehabilitation project in Forest Cove. The City predicted the project would take until November 24, weather permitting.

Forest Cove Ditch Rehab project location.

The project area includes Cypress Lane and Palmetto Lane. The map above shows the project limits highlighted in red. 

Scope of Work

The scope of work for the ditch rehabilitation project includes: 

  • Regrading and re-establishing of the roadside ditches
  • Replacing of the culverts and resetting them to match the flow line of the ditch
  • Replacing the driveway where the culverts are replaced
  • Increasing the capacity of any culverts less than 24 inches in diameter
  • Removing any unpermitted culverts or other encroachments in the City Right of Way. 

Project Approximately on Schedule

I drove by the project earlier in the week and it appeared that the City had completed approximately a quarter to a third of the project in about a quarter of the time. That means they are on schedule or slightly ahead.

Ditch rehab already completed in Forest Cove

From the looks of things, it appears the City is doing exactly what it promised.

For More Information

For more information, please contact Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin’s office at (832) 393-3008 or via email at districte@houstontx.gov.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2020

1108 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Today is Statistical Peak of Hurricane Season

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), today is the statistical peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.

Little Known Facts About Hurricanes: Peak of Season

The NHC has a fascinating page on hurricanes and climatology. Here are some interesting facts I gleaned from it.

Source: NHC. Peak of season occurs on September 10.

“The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season,” warns the NHC.

Average Number of Storms

Source; NHC

In an average season, we get 11 or 12 named storms, six of which become hurricanes and two or three of which become major hurricanes (category 3 or greater).

Twelve storms would get you to the letter L. But so far this year, we’re already on the R storm. And we have three more months to go in the season.

Points of Origin Tend to Shift by Month

The NHC shows where hurricanes tend to form each month of the season. In the first ten days of September, more hurricanes form in the Gulf than at any other time. The NHC shows a whole series of charts like the one below. It’s interesting to see how they change from period to period.

Source: NHC. Sept. 1-10 and Sept. 11-20 show the greatest number of hurricanes forming in the Gulf.

Note how few storms formed in the Caribbean compared to the period from October 11 to 20.

Compared to September 1-10, note how many more storms formed in the Caribbean during October 11-20.

Track Probabilities Also Shift by Month

The NHC also shows an interesting series of charts that show track probabilities by month. September is the most likely month for storms to track through the Caribbean, into the Gulf and onward to the Texas coast.

Source: NHC
Source: NHC

In stark contrast, during October, storms are most likely to veer east toward Florida and the East Coast.

Strike Density on Western Gulf Coast

Source: NHC

On the Texas Gulf Coast, Galveston has been hit more times than any other county. Harris, Brazoria and Chambers Counties follow closely.

Today’s Five Day Tropical Outlook

As if on cue, the NHC is now tracking seven tropical disturbances (as of 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020).

The two closest to Texas are highlighted in yellow above. That means they currently have less than a 40% chance of formation.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas is forecast to move westward, crossing Florida on Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for some development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Formation chance through 5 days is 30 percent.

Another trough of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible while this system moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Formation chance through through 5 days is even lower, at 20 percent.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2020

1108 Days since Hurricane Harvey

SJRA Considering Input on Lake Conroe Reservoir Forecasting Tool Thursday, 6PM

San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) will hold public meeting on Thursday, September 10, 2020, at 6:00 p.m., via webinar and telephone conference, to discuss its ongoing Lake Conroe Reservoir Forecasting Tool Project.

Accurately determining inflow during a flood theoretically lets dam operators determine how much water to release and when. That, in turn, helps protect properties both upstream and downstream to the extent possible.

During Harvey, many felt that the SJRA released too much water too quickly – 79,000 cubic feet per second at one point. That, they say, flooded homes downstream unnecessarily when capacity still existed in the reservoir. Lawsuits are still working their way through the courts.

Many also complained about the lack of warning for the massive release which inundated homes as people slept.

Residents trying to escape as Harvey's floodwaters rose
Senior residents of Kingwood Village Estates trying to escape as Harvey’s floodwaters rose.

Additional Information

The Lake Conroe Reservoir Forecasting Tool Project addresses flood protection in the San Jacinto River Watershed.

One goal: to anticipate peak water level in Lake Conroe during rainfall events based on:

  • Weather forecasts
  • Observed rainfall
  • Lake levels
  • Other data. 

A second goal: to predict peak release rates of stormwater from Lake Conroe.

The SJRA says this will help improve communication with Offices of Emergency Management and the general public during rainfall events. 

SJRA expects completion of the project by early spring 2021. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and SJRA have funded the project.

Ask Questions, Express Views

You can view and participate in the meeting remotely via the webinar link below to express your views of the Project.

Questions or requests for additional information about the SJRA Reservoir Forecasting Tool may be directed to Mr. Matt Barrett, P.E., Division Engineer, SJRA, 1577 Dam Site Road, Conroe, Montgomery County, Texas 77304, Tel. (936) 588-3111. 

SJRA requests those who intend to express their views to contact Mr. Barrett either in writing or by telephone in advance of the meeting. 

To Participate Via Webinar and/or Comment

Only those participating via Webinar using the GoToWebinar App will be able to provide comments during the meeting.

Webinar Link: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5029250157384078351
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

Please use Webinar ID: 372-655-099

To Participate Via Phone and Listen

If you choose to participate via conference call using the number below, you will NOT have the opportunity to provide comments during the designated portion of the meeting. The conference call phone number is provided for LISTENING PURPOSES ONLY.  

Telephone conference call phone number: (562) 247-8321 and the audio access code is 150-445-802

Editorial Comment

I, for one, hope they use their new Reservoir Forecasting Tool to release floodwater at safe rates, although that was not explicitly stated in the SJRA press release on the meeting. Releasing at safer rates may mean releasing water earlier or holding it longer to flatten peaks. In my opinion, SJRA should hold floodwater as high as they safely can…as long as they safely can. I hope this new tool helps SJRA do that.

I’d rather see floodwater in Lake Conroe than in Kingwood’s Town Center.

Kingwood Town Center Apartments after Lake Conroe Release. Yes, that’s the top of an SUV that failed to evacuate in time.

Posted by Bob Rehak on September 9th, 2020

1107 Days since Hurricane Harvey