Preparations for Prolonged Coastal Flooding and Potential Inland Rainfall Flooding Should Beginnow for Tropical Storm Beta.
As of 4PM CDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center predicts that storm surge, tropical storm and/or hurricane watches will likely be required for portions of the western Gulf coast tonight or on Saturday.
Forecast Track
Tropical Storm Beta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general direction should last through Saturday. Late Saturday or Saturday night, the storm should begin a slow westward drift into early next week. After that, Beta should recurve to the northeast.
Cone of uncertainty for TS Beta. Every point within the cone has an equal chance of receiving a hit from the center of the storm.
Don’t Focus on Exact Track Yet
Do not focus on the exact forecast track for Tropical Storm Beta, especially at days 3 to 5, as a high degree of uncertainty remains.
Regardless the forecast track, the center of Beta will approach western coast of the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Even if we don’t take a direct hit from Beta…
…Houston will likely be on the wet/dirty side of the storm.
10-20% Chance of Tropical Storm Winds for Houston
The Houston Area currently has a 10-20% chance of receiving tropical-storm force winds starting Sunday.
Probability of Houston receiving winds greater than 40 mph is 10-20%.Those winds could arrive as early as Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds have already increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Beta could reach near hurricane strength Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
Key Messages
According to the National Hurricane Center:
Beta should strengthen and possibly become a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office.
Beta could affect the Houston Area much of next week.
Impacts
Tides/Storm Surge:
Strong ENE/E winds will push sea water toward the coast. Expect seas to build into the 8-15 foot range and waves to run up along the coast.
Expect at least 4.0-5.0 feet seas above the barnacle level. They could even reach near 6.0 feet. Impacts begin around 4.5 ft at several locations along the upper TX coast.
Low lying roadways near the coast will likely flood at times of high tide and some locations could become isolated. Significant beach erosion is likely with elevated tides and large wave action lasting for several days and coastal infrastructure could be damaged. The expected tides on Sunday will likely be 1.5-2.5 feet higher than those experienced with Laura and Hanna.
DO NOT get caught off guard with the expected water level rise along the coast. Understand that low lying coastal roads may be inundated for a long period of time
Rainfall:
Squalls will increase in frequency and intensity into Sunday night and Monday and begin to spread farther inland. There will be a sharp cut off in the higher rainfall amounts from south to north over the area with amounts of 10-12 inches likely near the coast and even higher offshore. However, College Station will probably only see 1-3 inches.
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts 4-6 inches over Harris County.
These rainfall amounts will likely change
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds could arrive by Sunday evening and slowly spread NE Monday and Tuesday. It is possible that some locations could see 24-48 hours of sustained tropical storm force winds with the slow movement of the system.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
1116 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 365 Days after Tropical Storm Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/205430_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-09-18 17:36:062020-09-18 17:36:17Tropical Storm Beta Likely to Dump 4-6 Inches on Harris County, 10-12 Inches Near Coast
Month after month, I fly up and down the West Fork of the San Jacinto. More often than not, the confluence of Spring Creek and the West Fork (just west of I-69) looks like this.
West Fork (top) shows much more silt despite more flow coming from Spring Creek (left).
What Spring Creek Looked Like on Same Day
On this day (Friday, September 11), we took off from Intercontinental Airport and flew north over Spring Creek. Spring Creek looked like this.
Spring Creek north of Intercontinental Airport. Note how you can see the sandy bottom.
The difference in the water clarity is readily apparent. Yet in the 2000 Brown & Root study the authors said that Cypress and Spring Creeks contributed far more sediment. See Page 14. Sand miners, still quote and re-quote that study every chance they get.
What Accounts for Difference
So what accounts for the difference between the study and current visual observations? Mainly:
Upstream development
Sand mining
Storms that fall over one watershed, but not the other, on any given day
Twenty years after the Brown & Root study:
The heaviest development has shifted north into the West Fork watershed
Sand mining has expanded exponentially on the West Fork
Storms continue to fall over one or both watersheds.
Brown & Root’s findings on this one narrow issue (source of sediment) no longer reflect current conditions and visual observations.
The result is what you see above. Upstream from the sand mines, water flowed clearly on the West Fork, as it did on Spring Creek. Downstream, the West Fork looked like a sewer. The pictures below show some of the reasons.
Unless, otherwise noted, all the photos below were taken on 9/11/2020.
LMI River Bend mine. Not recent repair of breach and drainage ditch filled with silty water.Same ditch goes under mine entrance. From there, the silty water goes into woods and then the West Fork.At the LMI Moorehead mine, I spotted this pump.At the same mine, this pipe and what looks like a fire hose send silty water into surrounding wetlands when the level in the pond at the right gets high enough.One of the places where silty water enters the river.Zooming out, you can see the source in the background.Another mine where silty water leaks out of pitsThe water collects in the woods and eventually flows into the West Fork.
The Result
This is the end result. The West Fork (top) is far more silty than flow from Spring and Cypress Creeks (left).
A Sampling of Previous Flyovers
West Fork (right), Spring Creek (left). Photo taken on 10/2/19.West Fork (right), Spring Creek (left). November 4, 2019West Fork (right), Spring Creek (Left). February 13, 2020West Fork (top), Spring Creek (left). March 6, 2020.
I’m sure that when Brown & Root did its survey twenty years ago that Spring and Cypress Creeks contributed more sediment to Lake Houston. Today, however, I believe the West Fork contributes more.
It’s important to get this right if the community is to develop strategies that reduce the long term rate of sedimentation and save dredging dollars.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2020
1116 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/20200911-RJR_0948.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-09-18 15:48:392020-09-18 15:48:59West Fork or Spring Creek: Which Contributes More Sediment to Lake Houston?
Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin issued a press release today that provided additional details about the potential Harris County/City purchase of Woodridge Village.
Unanimous County Vote For Earnest Money Contract
As reported Tuesday evening, Harris County Commissioner’s Court voted unanimously to authorize the Harris County Real Property Division to negotiate an earnest money contract with Figure Four Partners, LTD. The purchase includes two tracts of land containing 267.35 acres located in Montgomery County, which could become the Woodridge Village Stormwater Basin.
The purchase price of $14,019,316.00 is about $5 million below the appraised value of the land. Martin thanks Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis, Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia, Precinct 3 Commissioner Steve Radack, and Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle for their support.
TWDB Loan Application
Said Martin, “This is the first crucial step in completing an inter-local agreement between the City of Houston and Harris County to purchase Woodridge Village.” This vote, coupled with the upcoming announcement from the Texas Water Development Board of the City’s eligibility to apply for a 0% interest loan to help develop the Woodridge Village project, will help reduce future flooding in Kingwood and the Lake Houston region.”
During May of 2019, as well as Tropical Storm Imelda almost exactly a year ago, Woodridge Village contributed to flooding and heavy sediment deposited in much of northern Kingwood. Mayor Pro Tem Martin called for the immediate stoppage of the planned development and sale of this site.
End-of-Year Deadline
Martin says he is happy to see the execution of the earnest money contract. It will lock in the purchase price for 120 days. The purchase of the property is contingent upon Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) entering in to an interlocal agreement with the City of Houston within 120 days of signing the earnest money contract.
Last week, the City of Houston Public Works Director, Carol Haddock, submitted a letter of intent to the HCFCD Executive Director, Russ Poppe. It acknowledges the commitment by both parties, City and County, to execute a binding inter-local agreement no later than December 31, 2020.
“A binding agreement for the proposed transaction can only be evidenced by HCFCD executing a finalized inter-local agreement which will need the approval of Houston City Council” said Martin. Martin also said he “is committed to working with every council office to gain their support of this interlocal agreement, as mutual support of projects to reduce future flooding citywide are key to a successful resiliency plan.”
The location of the Figure Four Property is suitable for a sub-regional stormwater detention facility, which will help protect affected residents from future intense rainfall events.
Dave Martin, Houston Mayor Pro tem
Consolidation of Three Wastewater Treatment Plants on Woodridge Property
“Additionally, the City has identified a need for approximately 73 acres of the total site to serve as the location for a regional wastewater treatment plant,” says Martin. “This would facilitate consolidation of three wastewater treatment plants in the Kingwood Area.”
Two of these three plants were significantly impacted by flooding during Hurricane Harvey.
The City would contribute cash for the portion of the site that would house the new wastewater treatment facility.
Land in Lieu of Cash for Floodwater Detention Portion of Property
For the floodwater-detention portion of the property, the City would contribute land in lieu of cash for Harris County Flood Control District flood-risk-reduction projects.
Construction Funding Details Still to Be Worked Out
Once purchased, the City and District will work together to find additional funding to construct additional stormwater detention on the site to maximize downstream benefits. The Perry Homes/Figure Four Partners property only contains enough detention capacity at the moment to handle about 60% of Atlas 14 requirements. Atlas 14 is NOAA’s attempt to update rainfall precipitation frequency statistics. The need for the update became apparent after four so-called 500-year rains in five years (Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey, Imelda).
Despite the recent completion of three additional detention ponds, the Woodridge Village site currently only has about 60% of the detention capacity needed to handle a true 100-year rain (according to Atlas-14 requirements).Photo 9/11/2020.
The City has recently submitted an abridged application to the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) for a $30 million grant/loan to fund a flood-damage-reduction project on Taylor Gully.
TWDB manages the capital Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) created by the 86th legislature in 2019, thanks to Texas State Senator Brandon Creighton and Texas State Representative Dan Huberty. The legislature mutually seeded the FIF program with approximately $790 M, the state has received applications requesting over $2.3 billion to date. Staff recommendations for applications to advance to the formal comprehensive application submittal phase are pending.
“Ultimately, approval of this earnest money contract is a huge win for the City of Houston and Kingwood residents,” said Martin. “We hope to have more good news once the city has completed its application to the Texas Water Development Board for improvements to Taylor Gully, which will happen later this year.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/17/2020
1115 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 364 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/20200907-DJI_0697.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-09-17 15:22:032020-09-17 15:22:24Mayor Pro Tem Martin Provides Additional Details on Purchase of Woodridge Village
Tropical Storm Beta Likely to Dump 4-6 Inches on Harris County, 10-12 Inches Near Coast
Preparations for Prolonged Coastal Flooding and Potential Inland Rainfall Flooding Should Begin now for Tropical Storm Beta.
As of 4PM CDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center predicts that storm surge, tropical storm and/or hurricane watches will likely be required for portions of the western Gulf coast tonight or on Saturday.
Forecast Track
Tropical Storm Beta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general direction should last through Saturday. Late Saturday or Saturday night, the storm should begin a slow westward drift into early next week. After that, Beta should recurve to the northeast.
Don’t Focus on Exact Track Yet
Do not focus on the exact forecast track for Tropical Storm Beta, especially at days 3 to 5, as a high degree of uncertainty remains.
Regardless the forecast track, the center of Beta will approach western coast of the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Even if we don’t take a direct hit from Beta…
10-20% Chance of Tropical Storm Winds for Houston
The Houston Area currently has a 10-20% chance of receiving tropical-storm force winds starting Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have already increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Beta could reach near hurricane strength Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
Key Messages
According to the National Hurricane Center:
Beta could affect the Houston Area much of next week.
Impacts
Tides/Storm Surge:
Strong ENE/E winds will push sea water toward the coast. Expect seas to build into the 8-15 foot range and waves to run up along the coast.
Expect at least 4.0-5.0 feet seas above the barnacle level. They could even reach near 6.0 feet. Impacts begin around 4.5 ft at several locations along the upper TX coast.
Low lying roadways near the coast will likely flood at times of high tide and some locations could become isolated. Significant beach erosion is likely with elevated tides and large wave action lasting for several days and coastal infrastructure could be damaged. The expected tides on Sunday will likely be 1.5-2.5 feet higher than those experienced with Laura and Hanna.
DO NOT get caught off guard with the expected water level rise along the coast. Understand that low lying coastal roads may be inundated for a long period of time
Rainfall:
Squalls will increase in frequency and intensity into Sunday night and Monday and begin to spread farther inland. There will be a sharp cut off in the higher rainfall amounts from south to north over the area with amounts of 10-12 inches likely near the coast and even higher offshore. However, College Station will probably only see 1-3 inches.
These rainfall amounts will likely change
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds could arrive by Sunday evening and slowly spread NE Monday and Tuesday. It is possible that some locations could see 24-48 hours of sustained tropical storm force winds with the slow movement of the system.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
1116 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 365 Days after Tropical Storm Imelda
West Fork or Spring Creek: Which Contributes More Sediment to Lake Houston?
As the Lake Houston Area grapples with dredging, sedimentation surveys, sand trap studies and more, it’s important to understand where sediment comes from.
Month after month, I fly up and down the West Fork of the San Jacinto. More often than not, the confluence of Spring Creek and the West Fork (just west of I-69) looks like this.
What Spring Creek Looked Like on Same Day
On this day (Friday, September 11), we took off from Intercontinental Airport and flew north over Spring Creek. Spring Creek looked like this.
The difference in the water clarity is readily apparent. Yet in the 2000 Brown & Root study the authors said that Cypress and Spring Creeks contributed far more sediment. See Page 14. Sand miners, still quote and re-quote that study every chance they get.
What Accounts for Difference
So what accounts for the difference between the study and current visual observations? Mainly:
Twenty years after the Brown & Root study:
Twenty square miles of sand mines between I-45 and I-69 have widened the West Fork tremendously since then, exposing far more sediment to floodwater. Worse, the mines’ dikes often breach, allowing millions of gallons of sediment to flow downstream. Even worse yet, the mines often pump water over the side of their dikes into the river or surrounding streams and forests.
The result is what you see above. Upstream from the sand mines, water flowed clearly on the West Fork, as it did on Spring Creek. Downstream, the West Fork looked like a sewer. The pictures below show some of the reasons.
Unless, otherwise noted, all the photos below were taken on 9/11/2020.
The Result
A Sampling of Previous Flyovers
I’m sure that when Brown & Root did its survey twenty years ago that Spring and Cypress Creeks contributed more sediment to Lake Houston. Today, however, I believe the West Fork contributes more.
It’s important to get this right if the community is to develop strategies that reduce the long term rate of sedimentation and save dredging dollars.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2020
1116 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Mayor Pro Tem Martin Provides Additional Details on Purchase of Woodridge Village
Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin issued a press release today that provided additional details about the potential Harris County/City purchase of Woodridge Village.
Unanimous County Vote For Earnest Money Contract
As reported Tuesday evening, Harris County Commissioner’s Court voted unanimously to authorize the Harris County Real Property Division to negotiate an earnest money contract with Figure Four Partners, LTD. The purchase includes two tracts of land containing 267.35 acres located in Montgomery County, which could become the Woodridge Village Stormwater Basin.
The purchase price of $14,019,316.00 is about $5 million below the appraised value of the land. Martin thanks Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis, Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia, Precinct 3 Commissioner Steve Radack, and Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle for their support.
TWDB Loan Application
Said Martin, “This is the first crucial step in completing an inter-local agreement between the City of Houston and Harris County to purchase Woodridge Village.” This vote, coupled with the upcoming announcement from the Texas Water Development Board of the City’s eligibility to apply for a 0% interest loan to help develop the Woodridge Village project, will help reduce future flooding in Kingwood and the Lake Houston region.”
During May of 2019, as well as Tropical Storm Imelda almost exactly a year ago, Woodridge Village contributed to flooding and heavy sediment deposited in much of northern Kingwood. Mayor Pro Tem Martin called for the immediate stoppage of the planned development and sale of this site.
End-of-Year Deadline
Martin says he is happy to see the execution of the earnest money contract. It will lock in the purchase price for 120 days. The purchase of the property is contingent upon Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) entering in to an interlocal agreement with the City of Houston within 120 days of signing the earnest money contract.
Last week, the City of Houston Public Works Director, Carol Haddock, submitted a letter of intent to the HCFCD Executive Director, Russ Poppe. It acknowledges the commitment by both parties, City and County, to execute a binding inter-local agreement no later than December 31, 2020.
“A binding agreement for the proposed transaction can only be evidenced by HCFCD executing a finalized inter-local agreement which will need the approval of Houston City Council” said Martin. Martin also said he “is committed to working with every council office to gain their support of this interlocal agreement, as mutual support of projects to reduce future flooding citywide are key to a successful resiliency plan.”
Consolidation of Three Wastewater Treatment Plants on Woodridge Property
“Additionally, the City has identified a need for approximately 73 acres of the total site to serve as the location for a regional wastewater treatment plant,” says Martin. “This would facilitate consolidation of three wastewater treatment plants in the Kingwood Area.”
The City would contribute cash for the portion of the site that would house the new wastewater treatment facility.
Land in Lieu of Cash for Floodwater Detention Portion of Property
For the floodwater-detention portion of the property, the City would contribute land in lieu of cash for Harris County Flood Control District flood-risk-reduction projects.
Construction Funding Details Still to Be Worked Out
Once purchased, the City and District will work together to find additional funding to construct additional stormwater detention on the site to maximize downstream benefits. The Perry Homes/Figure Four Partners property only contains enough detention capacity at the moment to handle about 60% of Atlas 14 requirements. Atlas 14 is NOAA’s attempt to update rainfall precipitation frequency statistics. The need for the update became apparent after four so-called 500-year rains in five years (Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey, Imelda).
The City has recently submitted an abridged application to the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) for a $30 million grant/loan to fund a flood-damage-reduction project on Taylor Gully.
TWDB manages the capital Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) created by the 86th legislature in 2019, thanks to Texas State Senator Brandon Creighton and Texas State Representative Dan Huberty. The legislature mutually seeded the FIF program with approximately $790 M, the state has received applications requesting over $2.3 billion to date. Staff recommendations for applications to advance to the formal comprehensive application submittal phase are pending.
“Ultimately, approval of this earnest money contract is a huge win for the City of Houston and Kingwood residents,” said Martin. “We hope to have more good news once the city has completed its application to the Texas Water Development Board for improvements to Taylor Gully, which will happen later this year.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/17/2020
1115 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 364 since Imelda