The Monday 10am update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Hurricane Eta now predicts the storm will slam Central America then re-emerge into the Caribbean over the Bay of Honduras in the NW Caribbean.
Beyond 96 hours (Saturday), it’s uncertain what the storm will do.
NHC Predicts Cat 4
Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to undergo rapid strengthening. Low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. The updated NHC = forecast now calls for Eta to become a category 4 hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.
Although Eta’s low-level center may not survive after being inland over Central America for so long, most of the global models depict a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and into the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta’s remnants, and the new NHC track forecast shows the system emerging over the northwest Caribbean Sea after 96 h.
However, the uncertainty in the long-range portion of the forecast remains quite high.
Key Messages
Eta is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane very soon, and additional strengthening is likely before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Etas eyewall moves onshore, and preparations should be rushed to completion within the Hurricane Warning area.
Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
A potentially catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with battering waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/2/2020
1161 Days since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2020-11-02 09:16:282020-11-02 09:16:34Hurricane Eta Now Predicted to Re-emerge over NW Caribbean
Tropical storm formed in the central Caribbean Sea late yesterday and tied a record going back 170 years.
28th Storm of Year
Eta became the 28th tropical storm of the 2020 hurricane season and tied 2005 for the most tropical storms in an Atlantic hurricane season since records began in 1851.
Satellite images show the system still lacks any defined inner core.
Tropical Storm Eta formed late yesterday in the central Caribbean.
“Eta is a fairly large system,” says Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “and such systems generally take time to consolidate and develop. Eta is moving westward and this motion is expected to continue for the next 72 hours.”
Hurricane Threat to Nicaragua and Honduras Tuesday
On its current track, Eta should slam into Nicaragua and Honduras Tuesday morning. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts Eta will intensify into a hurricane on Monday. NHC also predicts heavy rainfall and flash flooding through Thursday, with landslides in higher elevations.
Fading High-Pressure Ridge Creates High Uncertainty Beyond 72 Hours
Eta is under the influence of a high-pressure ridge that extends from the Atlantic Ocean to near Cuba, which is forcing the system toward the west. After landfall, the system should significantly slow down as the high pressure ridge begins to weaken. “The main question,” says Lindner, “will there be enough of a defined system remaining to get pulled northward over the western Caribbean Sea and potentially the SE Gulf of Mexico. Given the expected land interaction and general slow motion beyond 72 hours, the confidence in the forecast for later this week is lower than average. Adjustments in the track are likely over the next several days.”
Intensity
“There could be a period of rapid intensification prior to Eta making landfall over central America,” adds Lindner.
The Houston Area has been extremely lucky this year. Only one storm flooded only part of the City. Just to our east, Louisiana endured direct impacts from five storms.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/1/2020 based on info from HCFCD and NHC
1160 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/1000x1000.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=110001000adminadmin2020-11-01 13:12:442020-11-01 13:12:48It’s Official; 2020 Ties Record For Most Tropical Events in Recorded History
Often, I post about sand mines or developments that encroach on floodplains and floodways to the detriment of people downstream. But when I learned of this story, it made me extremely happy. The Bayou Land Conservancy (BLC) announced last week that Joe Swinbank and Don Poarch, partners at Sprint Sand & Clay, have donated 117 acres of unspoiled wetlands to the organization. The land borders Spring Creek in Tomball, north of Lone Star College and Harris County Precinct 4’s Spring Creek Park. It will have a significant impact on conservation, according to the BLC.
Natural wetlands on the tract donated to BLC by Swinbank and Poarch. This and all photos below are courtesy of the Bayou Land Conservancy.
“We are excited to own this ecologically rich nature preserve that will help us connect the community to the benefits of land conservation”, said BLC board chair Lisa Lin. “This donation will benefit the community for many generations, and be an enduring legacy of the incredible generosity of Mr. Swinbank and Mr. Poarch.”
Spring Creek meanders along the property’s southern border.
Ecologically rich wetlands such as these help retain water during floods, reducing the impact on downstream residents.
Land Originally Purchased for Mining
“As the greater Houston area continues to grow at a rapid pace, striking a healthy balance between land preservation and land development has never been more important as we seek to protect the many economic and community benefits we all enjoy,” Swinbank said. “The Bayou Land Conservancy’s extensive network of preserved trails and waterways just minutes from Houston is impressive in its form and function—a model of what can be achieved when community stakeholders work together. We’re proud to partner with the Conservancy to continue these important environmental efforts and extend BLC’s preserved trails and waterways west into the Tomball area.”
Don Poarch echoed his partner’s sentiments in acknowledging the award. “We’re grateful for the recognition as this year’s Conservation Champions and happy to continue to champion the BLC and its important mission to preserve these lands for natural flood control, cleaner water and wildlife protection,” Poarch said. “On behalf of our entire team at Sprint Sand & Clay, Joe and I hope this land along Spring Creek enhances the community with protected green space while providing beautiful trails and waterways for people to reconnect with nature and each other.”
Family History Led to Donation
Beyond the positive environmental and community impact, the land in Tomball has personal significance to Swinbank and his family. “My wife was raised in the area, and her extended family has deep roots in Tomball and Rosehill going back to the area’s original German settlers,” Swinbank added. “My family and I couldn’t be happier that the Conservancy will ensure this land is preserved and protected for generations to come.”
Location of new preserve
Online Gala to Honor Conservationists Nov. 13
BLC will honor Swinbank and Poarch at its annual Annual Land Lover Gala as Conservation Champions. The Gala will be held virtually this year from 6-7 pm on Friday, November 13th. More information about the event can be found here. Wildlife film maker Ben Masters will be the keynote speaker. Mark your calendar.
No-Cost Gala Great Way to Learn More About BLC
Because of COVID, BLC’s net proceeds will likely be down this year. There’s no cost to attend the virtual event. “We’d just like to encourage people to join us,” said Jill Boullion, Executive Director of the BLC.
On a personal note, I will say this. The Bayou Land Conservancy and its committed staff stand tall among many worthy conservation groups in the Lake Houston Area. Their cooperative strategy is simple.
They put conservation easements on environmentally important land that is bought or donated so that it serves its natural function. They make a huge difference and deserve everyone’s support.
Bayou Land Conservancy protects land along streams for flood control, clean water, and wildlife. BLC is a nationally accredited, community-sponsored land preservation organization working to permanently protect land, with a focus on the streams that feed Lake Houston, an important source of drinking water for millions in the region. More information is available at: www.bayouland.org.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/31/2020
1159 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/20190627-Poarch-Swinbank-22-2019-6-27.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-10-31 14:30:112020-10-31 20:53:56Sand Miners Donate 117 Acres of Unspoiled Wetlands Along Spring Creek to Bayou Land Conservancy
Hurricane Eta Now Predicted to Re-emerge over NW Caribbean
The Monday 10am update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Hurricane Eta now predicts the storm will slam Central America then re-emerge into the Caribbean over the Bay of Honduras in the NW Caribbean.
Beyond 96 hours (Saturday), it’s uncertain what the storm will do.
NHC Predicts Cat 4
Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to undergo rapid strengthening. Low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. The updated NHC = forecast now calls for Eta to become a category 4 hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.
Although Eta’s low-level center may not survive after being inland over Central America for so long, most of the global models depict a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and into the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta’s remnants, and the new NHC track forecast shows the system emerging over the northwest Caribbean Sea after 96 h.
However, the uncertainty in the long-range portion of the forecast remains quite high.
Key Messages
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/2/2020
1161 Days since Hurricane Harvey
It’s Official; 2020 Ties Record For Most Tropical Events in Recorded History
Tropical storm formed in the central Caribbean Sea late yesterday and tied a record going back 170 years.
28th Storm of Year
Eta became the 28th tropical storm of the 2020 hurricane season and tied 2005 for the most tropical storms in an Atlantic hurricane season since records began in 1851.
Satellite images show the system still lacks any defined inner core.
“Eta is a fairly large system,” says Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “and such systems generally take time to consolidate and develop. Eta is moving westward and this motion is expected to continue for the next 72 hours.”
Hurricane Threat to Nicaragua and Honduras Tuesday
On its current track, Eta should slam into Nicaragua and Honduras Tuesday morning. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts Eta will intensify into a hurricane on Monday. NHC also predicts heavy rainfall and flash flooding through Thursday, with landslides in higher elevations.
Fading High-Pressure Ridge Creates High Uncertainty Beyond 72 Hours
Eta is under the influence of a high-pressure ridge that extends from the Atlantic Ocean to near Cuba, which is forcing the system toward the west. After landfall, the system should significantly slow down as the high pressure ridge begins to weaken. “The main question,” says Lindner, “will there be enough of a defined system remaining to get pulled northward over the western Caribbean Sea and potentially the SE Gulf of Mexico. Given the expected land interaction and general slow motion beyond 72 hours, the confidence in the forecast for later this week is lower than average. Adjustments in the track are likely over the next several days.”
Intensity
“There could be a period of rapid intensification prior to Eta making landfall over central America,” adds Lindner.
The Houston Area has been extremely lucky this year. Only one storm flooded only part of the City. Just to our east, Louisiana endured direct impacts from five storms.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/1/2020 based on info from HCFCD and NHC
1160 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Sand Miners Donate 117 Acres of Unspoiled Wetlands Along Spring Creek to Bayou Land Conservancy
Often, I post about sand mines or developments that encroach on floodplains and floodways to the detriment of people downstream. But when I learned of this story, it made me extremely happy. The Bayou Land Conservancy (BLC) announced last week that Joe Swinbank and Don Poarch, partners at Sprint Sand & Clay, have donated 117 acres of unspoiled wetlands to the organization. The land borders Spring Creek in Tomball, north of Lone Star College and Harris County Precinct 4’s Spring Creek Park. It will have a significant impact on conservation, according to the BLC.
“We are excited to own this ecologically rich nature preserve that will help us connect the community to the benefits of land conservation”, said BLC board chair Lisa Lin. “This donation will benefit the community for many generations, and be an enduring legacy of the incredible generosity of Mr. Swinbank and Mr. Poarch.”
Land Originally Purchased for Mining
“As the greater Houston area continues to grow at a rapid pace, striking a healthy balance between land preservation and land development has never been more important as we seek to protect the many economic and community benefits we all enjoy,” Swinbank said. “The Bayou Land Conservancy’s extensive network of preserved trails and waterways just minutes from Houston is impressive in its form and function—a model of what can be achieved when community stakeholders work together. We’re proud to partner with the Conservancy to continue these important environmental efforts and extend BLC’s preserved trails and waterways west into the Tomball area.”
Don Poarch echoed his partner’s sentiments in acknowledging the award. “We’re grateful for the recognition as this year’s Conservation Champions and happy to continue to champion the BLC and its important mission to preserve these lands for natural flood control, cleaner water and wildlife protection,” Poarch said. “On behalf of our entire team at Sprint Sand & Clay, Joe and I hope this land along Spring Creek enhances the community with protected green space while providing beautiful trails and waterways for people to reconnect with nature and each other.”
Family History Led to Donation
Beyond the positive environmental and community impact, the land in Tomball has personal significance to Swinbank and his family. “My wife was raised in the area, and her extended family has deep roots in Tomball and Rosehill going back to the area’s original German settlers,” Swinbank added. “My family and I couldn’t be happier that the Conservancy will ensure this land is preserved and protected for generations to come.”
Online Gala to Honor Conservationists Nov. 13
BLC will honor Swinbank and Poarch at its annual Annual Land Lover Gala as Conservation Champions. The Gala will be held virtually this year from 6-7 pm on Friday, November 13th. More information about the event can be found here. Wildlife film maker Ben Masters will be the keynote speaker. Mark your calendar.
No-Cost Gala Great Way to Learn More About BLC
Because of COVID, BLC’s net proceeds will likely be down this year. There’s no cost to attend the virtual event. “We’d just like to encourage people to join us,” said Jill Boullion, Executive Director of the BLC.
On a personal note, I will say this. The Bayou Land Conservancy and its committed staff stand tall among many worthy conservation groups in the Lake Houston Area. Their cooperative strategy is simple.
Bayou Land Conservancy protects land along streams for flood control, clean water, and wildlife. BLC is a nationally accredited, community-sponsored land preservation organization working to permanently protect land, with a focus on the streams that feed Lake Houston, an important source of drinking water for millions in the region. More information is available at: www.bayouland.org.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/31/2020
1159 Days since Hurricane Harvey