As of 3 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center indicated Tropical Storm Ida had intensified into a hurricane about to cross over the western tip of Cuba. They warn that it could turn into a category 4 hurricane. It is currently predicted to cross over Louisiana, dump up to 20 inches of rain, and produce 15 feet of storm surge on Sunday.
Warnings Now In Effect
The NHC has also posted several warnings. They include:
Storm Surge Warning from Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge in Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
Hurricane Warning for the coast of Louisiana including Lake Pontchartrain and Metropolitan New Orleans.
Tropical Storm Warning from the mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.
Hurricane Ida over the western tip of Cuba as of 3PM Houston timeon 8/27/2021
Rapid Intensification
According to the National Hurricane Center, radar indicated a closed eye 24 nautical miles wide. Recon aircraft measured winds at 70 knots – hurricane intensity – at 3 PM Houston time.
Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through very warm waters, low wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions should result in rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.
In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased.
Models now predict Ida will reach category 4 intensity. The NHC forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.
National Hurricane Center
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible eyewall replacement cycles. Models also call for Ida’s wind field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.
Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer term motion continues to be northwestward at about 14 mph.
Tracking Quickly Toward Louisiana Then Slowing
Steering currents push Ida northwestward across the Gulf this weekend. But Ida after landfall they will also slow northward motion and cause the system to turn northeastward.
Key Messages
However, remember not to focus on the exact details of the track. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center, says the NHC.
1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions will continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.
4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Story of the Storm in Picture
Confidence in track is increasing. Ida should reach the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts by Sunday afternoon.…but tropical-storm-force winds should arrive by Sunday morning.Most of the Houston area only has about a 10-30% chance of experience tropical-storm-force winds.And we have practically no chance of excessive rainfall that could create flash flooding.Portions of Louisiana, however, will like see 15-20 inches of rain.But the biggest threat by far to our neighbors will come from storm surge. Portions of the delta could see as much as 15 feet above ground level.
Prays for our neighbors. And thank God that we’re on the dry side of this storm. It should hit on August 29th, the fourth anniversary of when Hurricane Harvey triggered massive evacuations in the Lake Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/27/2021
1459 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/155544WPCQPF_sm.gif?fit=892%2C716&ssl=1716892adminadmin2021-08-27 16:38:062021-08-27 16:40:37Ida Now Hurricane, Predicted to Intensify to Category 4, Take Aim at New Orleans
1968 … the year that humans first traveled around the moon during the Apollo 8 mission. It was a triumphant time for America and Houston, home of the NASA “Manned Spacecraft Center,” its name at the time. We could do anything, it seemed. And we did.
1968 Plan for 1990
A reader recently sent me a preliminary plan developed in 1968 called Houston 1990. The Honorable Louis Welch was Mayor and Intercontinental Airport was still a year away from opening. And the Houston Planning Commission (which developed the plan) clearly had its eye on supporting future growth. The plan discussed new water sources, transportation corridors, green space, cultural amenities, employment centers, retail centers, housing choices and more.
Not all of ideas became reality. But most did.
Hits and Misses
For instance, the plan talks about an “emerging” office, retail and high-rise residential area near Westheimer and West Loop 610. (The Galleria?) It also mentions an emerging business area near Holcomb and Main (The Medical Center?) It predicted the continued dominance of single-family housing and the need outlying employment centers as Houston expanded so people could continue to live near where they worked.
For younger Houstonians, it will be a lesson in the value of planning. For instance, future transportation options can be taken off the table if land isn’t set aside early enough and people build homes on it. That’s why it’s interesting to see something that looks like a network of greenbelts where the Grand Parkway is now.
But people also ignored parts of the plan. For instance, the need for flood control. The plan designated wide green spaces around bayous and creeks which were largely undeveloped at the time. They could have been used for detention ponds and channel expansion as development pushed outward.
Reservoirs that Never Happened
The plan also showed large reservoirs.
One was immediately west of what is now Kingwood where Spring and Cypress Creeks come together with the San Jacinto West Fork near I-69.
Another was west of a tiny town in the hinterlands called Tomball on Spring Creek.
A third was on the Brazos River near Richmond and Rosenberg.
And the fourth was a sprawling affair north of Lake Houston that took in portions of Peach and Caney Creeks, the San Jacinto East Fork and Luce Bayou.
Not one of these reservoirs was developed. And with few exceptions, none of the land along the bayous was set aside. The land along the rivers and streams became settled. And now those areas flood significantly during heavy rains.
Olive-colored areas represent open spaces recommended as set-asides for recreation, water resources, and flood control. However, little of the land was actually set aside for those purposes. The large green ring around the City is now the Grand Parkway.
Building flood mitigation projects along these waterways now would be difficult. It often requires buyouts that can take a decade or more. This problem was foreseen. People were already building up to the edge of bayous, as you can see in the enlarged portion of the map below that shows Halls Bayou.
Halls Bayou in 1968. Note the green areas suggested as set-asides for “open space” along the bayou where development was already crowding the stream banks, leaving few options for flood control.
Many outlying areas that were sparsely populated in 1968 would follow the Halls Bayou pattern.
People would demand flood mitigation after, not before development.
However, that can become expensive and controversial as we saw this week in Huffman. Some areas there along Luce Bayou flooded badly during Harvey and Imelda. Harris County Flood Control District commissioned a flood-mitigation study that recommended a construction of bypass channel (see sections 4.1.3 and 4.1.4).
But local opposition developed from homeowners whose property would be affected. They fought the project. Harris County Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia killed it in the 8/24/21 Commissioner’s Court meeting, citing local opposition. That left Huffman with no immediate flood-mitigation hopes after three years of study and planning.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Prelim-Plan-1968.jpg?fit=1200%2C1071&ssl=110711200adminadmin2021-08-27 14:39:352021-08-27 15:10:39The Future that Houston Envisioned for 1990 … in 1968
As of this 11 a.m this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Invest 99L has turned into Tropical Depression 9 (TD9). Satellite imagery now shows circulation in the area of low pressure over the west-central Caribbean which I posted about yesterday. Cuba and the Caymans have already issued tropical-storm warnings. Extremely heavy rainfall is expected there. And the storm should strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday. Yet the effects on the Houston region will like be felt offshore and in coastal areas.
Center of circulation starting to form. NOAA Satellite image as of 9:50 a.m. CDT on August 26, 2021.
TD9 Current Intensity and Location
The initial intensity of TD9 as of 11 a.m. Houston time is approximately 35 mph with gusts to 40. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the system later this afternoon to provide more information on the system’s structure and intensity.
TD9, now located just south of Grand Cayman, is moving northwestward at 13 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates the system should move steadily northwestward. That would bring the center near or over western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approaching the US Central Gulf coast on Sunday.
Models are in relatively good agreement regarding the track forecast for TD9. However, error at Day 4 is around 175 miles, so don’t focus on details of the long-range track forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined, according to the NHC.
The cone of uncertainty for TD9 at this point stretches all the way from Houston to Mississippi. Every point within the cone has an equal chance of being hit.
TD9 will move over warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 24-36 hours. This, in combination with low vertical wind shear and a moist environment, should allow for steady strengthening.
Rapid Intensification Likely in Next 48 to 72 Hours
NHC forecasts TD9 to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. It could approach hurricane strength as it passes western Cuba.
Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions support additional strengthening. The NHC forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification between 48 and 72 hours for now.
The NHC intensity forecast brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Most global models show significant intensification of TD9 over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf this weekend.
Key Messages
1. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba Friday, with dangerous storm surge possible in western Cuba.
2. The system will likely produce life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
3. This system should approach the northern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, although the forecast uncertainty is larger than usual since the system is just forming. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday along the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast, with the greatest risk along the coast of Louisiana. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
Most of the Houston area has a 30-40% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds from this storm.Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive by early Sunday morning.
Likely Hazards in Islands and Mainland
The main hazards associated with TD9 as it passes Cuba and the Caymans will be:
STORM SURGE:
2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas with onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND:
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands tonight and Cuba on Friday.
RAINFALL:
The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall from this system is likely to begin impacting portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast by early Sunday.
SURF:
Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Lindner Cautiously Optimistic At This Point
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist believes, “Impacts along the upper TX coast will likely be increasing swells and minor coastal flooding at high tide late this weekend into early next week.”
Monitor forecasts closely in case things change and be prepared for anything. We still won’t reach the peak of hurricane season until mid-September.
Statistical peak of Hurricane Season is September 10.
Posted by Bob Rehak at noon on 8/26/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1458 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/144701_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2021-08-26 12:23:532021-08-26 12:38:11TD9 Dumping Up to 20 Inches on Caymans, Hurricane Likely in Gulf by Sunday
Ida Now Hurricane, Predicted to Intensify to Category 4, Take Aim at New Orleans
As of 3 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center indicated Tropical Storm Ida had intensified into a hurricane about to cross over the western tip of Cuba. They warn that it could turn into a category 4 hurricane. It is currently predicted to cross over Louisiana, dump up to 20 inches of rain, and produce 15 feet of storm surge on Sunday.
Warnings Now In Effect
The NHC has also posted several warnings. They include:
Rapid Intensification
According to the National Hurricane Center, radar indicated a closed eye 24 nautical miles wide. Recon aircraft measured winds at 70 knots – hurricane intensity – at 3 PM Houston time.
Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through very warm waters, low wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions should result in rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.
In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased.
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible eyewall replacement cycles. Models also call for Ida’s wind field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.
Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer term motion continues to be northwestward at about 14 mph.
Tracking Quickly Toward Louisiana Then Slowing
Steering currents push Ida northwestward across the Gulf this weekend. But Ida after landfall they will also slow northward motion and cause the system to turn northeastward.
Key Messages
However, remember not to focus on the exact details of the track. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center, says the NHC.
1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions will continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.
4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Story of the Storm in Picture
Prays for our neighbors. And thank God that we’re on the dry side of this storm. It should hit on August 29th, the fourth anniversary of when Hurricane Harvey triggered massive evacuations in the Lake Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/27/2021
1459 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The Future that Houston Envisioned for 1990 … in 1968
1968 … the year that humans first traveled around the moon during the Apollo 8 mission. It was a triumphant time for America and Houston, home of the NASA “Manned Spacecraft Center,” its name at the time. We could do anything, it seemed. And we did.
1968 Plan for 1990
A reader recently sent me a preliminary plan developed in 1968 called Houston 1990. The Honorable Louis Welch was Mayor and Intercontinental Airport was still a year away from opening. And the Houston Planning Commission (which developed the plan) clearly had its eye on supporting future growth. The plan discussed new water sources, transportation corridors, green space, cultural amenities, employment centers, retail centers, housing choices and more.
Not all of ideas became reality. But most did.
Hits and Misses
For instance, the plan talks about an “emerging” office, retail and high-rise residential area near Westheimer and West Loop 610. (The Galleria?) It also mentions an emerging business area near Holcomb and Main (The Medical Center?) It predicted the continued dominance of single-family housing and the need outlying employment centers as Houston expanded so people could continue to live near where they worked.
For older Houstonians, this will be a nostalgic trip on Rocky and Bullwinkle’s “wayback machine.”
For younger Houstonians, it will be a lesson in the value of planning. For instance, future transportation options can be taken off the table if land isn’t set aside early enough and people build homes on it. That’s why it’s interesting to see something that looks like a network of greenbelts where the Grand Parkway is now.
But people also ignored parts of the plan. For instance, the need for flood control. The plan designated wide green spaces around bayous and creeks which were largely undeveloped at the time. They could have been used for detention ponds and channel expansion as development pushed outward.
Reservoirs that Never Happened
The plan also showed large reservoirs.
Not one of these reservoirs was developed. And with few exceptions, none of the land along the bayous was set aside. The land along the rivers and streams became settled. And now those areas flood significantly during heavy rains.
Difficulty of Flood Mitigation After Development
The planned lake west of Kingwood is now sand mines and subdivisions. Lake Conroe would be built in 1973, five years later farther upstream. And Kingwood started building out in the early 1970s.
Building flood mitigation projects along these waterways now would be difficult. It often requires buyouts that can take a decade or more. This problem was foreseen. People were already building up to the edge of bayous, as you can see in the enlarged portion of the map below that shows Halls Bayou.
Many outlying areas that were sparsely populated in 1968 would follow the Halls Bayou pattern.
However, that can become expensive and controversial as we saw this week in Huffman. Some areas there along Luce Bayou flooded badly during Harvey and Imelda. Harris County Flood Control District commissioned a flood-mitigation study that recommended a construction of bypass channel (see sections 4.1.3 and 4.1.4).
But local opposition developed from homeowners whose property would be affected. They fought the project. Harris County Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia killed it in the 8/24/21 Commissioner’s Court meeting, citing local opposition. That left Huffman with no immediate flood-mitigation hopes after three years of study and planning.
For Complete 1968 Study
For a high resolution PDF of the entire 1968 plan and accompanying text, click here. (Caution: 33″x30″, 14 megabyte file. Best viewed on large screen. )
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/27/2021
1459 Days after Hurricane Harvey
TD9 Dumping Up to 20 Inches on Caymans, Hurricane Likely in Gulf by Sunday
As of this 11 a.m this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Invest 99L has turned into Tropical Depression 9 (TD9). Satellite imagery now shows circulation in the area of low pressure over the west-central Caribbean which I posted about yesterday. Cuba and the Caymans have already issued tropical-storm warnings. Extremely heavy rainfall is expected there. And the storm should strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday. Yet the effects on the Houston region will like be felt offshore and in coastal areas.
TD9 Current Intensity and Location
The initial intensity of TD9 as of 11 a.m. Houston time is approximately 35 mph with gusts to 40. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the system later this afternoon to provide more information on the system’s structure and intensity.
TD9, now located just south of Grand Cayman, is moving northwestward at 13 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates the system should move steadily northwestward. That would bring the center near or over western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approaching the US Central Gulf coast on Sunday.
Models are in relatively good agreement regarding the track forecast for TD9. However, error at Day 4 is around 175 miles, so don’t focus on details of the long-range track forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined, according to the NHC.
TD9 will move over warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 24-36 hours. This, in combination with low vertical wind shear and a moist environment, should allow for steady strengthening.
Rapid Intensification Likely in Next 48 to 72 Hours
NHC forecasts TD9 to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. It could approach hurricane strength as it passes western Cuba.
Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions support additional strengthening. The NHC forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification between 48 and 72 hours for now.
Most global models show significant intensification of TD9 over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf this weekend.
Key Messages
1. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba Friday, with dangerous storm surge possible in western Cuba.
2. The system will likely produce life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
3. This system should approach the northern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, although the forecast uncertainty is larger than usual since the system is just forming. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday along the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast, with the greatest risk along the coast of Louisiana. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
Likely Hazards in Islands and Mainland
The main hazards associated with TD9 as it passes Cuba and the Caymans will be:
STORM SURGE:
2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas with onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND:
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands tonight and Cuba on Friday.
RAINFALL:
The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall from this system is likely to begin impacting portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast by early Sunday.
SURF:
Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Lindner Cautiously Optimistic At This Point
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist believes, “Impacts along the upper TX coast will likely be increasing swells and minor coastal flooding at high tide late this weekend into early next week.”
Monitor forecasts closely in case things change and be prepared for anything. We still won’t reach the peak of hurricane season until mid-September.
Posted by Bob Rehak at noon on 8/26/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1458 Days after Hurricane Harvey