Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, forecasts a potential hurricane threat for the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. And it’s following the same track as Harvey – almost four years later to the day.
Current Location of 99L in South-Central Caribbean
A tropical wave currently designated 99L and moving westward in the Caribbean off the coast of Columbia still has no center of circulation. However, global models indicate that it will continue to develop over the western Caribbean Sea either Friday or Saturday and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
Area of Investigation 99L is that large blob between the eastern tip of Cuba and the northern coast of Colombia.99L on left should reach the southern Gulf by this weekend.
Still a Wide Range of Potential Tracks for 99L
There has been a significant shift during the last 24 hours to the right (east). The majority of the models now show 99L heading in the direction of the northwest Gulf of Mexico. However, models also show a wide range of potential tracks from northern Mexico to the Mississippi coast.
The black line is the most likely track but uncertainty remains high.
So, a fair amount of uncertainty exists in the forecast, especially since there is such spread in the ensemble guidance. The lack of a defined surface center at the moment increases that uncertainty.
Hurricane Harvey’s track in 2017. Note the similarity in area of origin and projected paths. Also note where Harvey intensified.
This weekend will be the fourth anniversary of Harvey. It’s eerie to note the similarities between that storm and this one.
Intensification Very Likely
Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico appear to be favorable for intensification.
Nearly all global models see 99L turning into a hurricane. Some see it turning into an intense hurricane in the Gulf by early next week.
Lindner warns that It is too early to start discussing impacts because of the uncertainty on the track. However, he does see increasing tides and 10-15 foot waves from Sunday into Monday. Rain chances will increase starting today and remain high into the weekend.
“Obviously,” says Lindner, “the forecast and potential impacts will have significant changes as the track become more clear in the coming days.”
Residents and interest along the TX and LA coast should review hurricane plans and make sure hurricane supplies are fully stocked. Monitor forecasts closely and frequently.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2021 based on information from HCFCD, NOAA, NHC and Tropical Tidbits
1457 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/two_atl_5d0-3.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2021-08-25 11:39:052021-08-25 11:54:07So Far, 99L Headed Toward Gulf Along Same Track as Harvey
For more than a year, HCFCD has excavated Ben’s Branch in four different phases. However, significant sediment remained under the Kingwood Drive Bridge. That’s property owned and maintained by the City of Houston. And now they are excavating that to eliminate a bottleneck. Such bottlenecks can back water up, damaging homes and businesses.
Photographs by Stan Sarman on 8/24/2021. Taken along Ben’s Branch looking north toward Kingwood Drive.The excavation also affected the area between the two halves of Kingwood Drive.Sediment will drain and dry before being removed from the banks.
According to Sarman, who talked with the construction manager, after the crew completes work here, it will remove sediment from the bottleneck at the Kingwood Diversion Ditch next to the fire station on Kingwood Drive.
These are little things that make a big difference to people who previously flooded. And there were plenty of them along Ben’s Branch, especially in the Town Center Area. Some businesses still haven’t recovered. The shopping center north of these photos is still largely vacant thanks to catastrophic flooding during Harvey and a ditch whose conveyance was severely reduced, in part, by bottlenecks like this one.
Thanks go to Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin and his staff at the District E council office.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2021 with photos from Stan Sarman
1456 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20210824-IMG_6790.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2021-08-24 18:15:242021-08-24 18:15:28City Starting to Excavate Bottlenecks Under Kingwood Drive
As we approach the 4th anniversary of Hurricane Harvey, the Atlantic basin is currently heating up with tropical activity. As remnants of one hurricane washing across New England, two more areas of concern move toward the Northeast. A third is heading toward the northwest Caribbean. It’s still too early to tell exactly where these storms will make landfall. But the presence of so many tropical disturbances signals the need to stay alert to daily weather forecasts.
Each of these storms has a 40-60% chance of tropical formation.
Five Day Outlook for Tropical Activity
8 PM outlook on 8/23/2021 indicates the storms heading toward the NW Caribbean have a 50% chance of tropical formation in the next five days. That’s up from 30% this morning.
Retreat of High-Pressure System Over Texas
National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea will form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions favor gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
In addition to that, another major low pressure area over Mexico and the Bay of Campeche could move into the Gulf by this weekend though no tropical activity is forecast at this time.
Note massive low pressure system moving into Gulf.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, warns that as the high pressure ridge currently sitting over Houston begins to retreat north by Wednesday, “A series of tropical waves and disturbances will move from east to west across the US Gulf coast and into coastal TX from mid week onward. With a significant influx of Gulf moisture, showers and thunderstorms will return as early as Wednesday across much of the area and last likely into next week. Locally heavy rainfall will become an increasing threat by late week and this weekend with tropical moisture firmly in place over the region.”
Historical Norms for Late August
NOAA’s Climate Center shows that the projected path of the current areas of concern should follow historical norms for this time of the year.
This diagram shows the most likely areas for formation for hurricanes in August and their prevailing tracks. Source: NOAA’s Climate Center.
This is one of the reasons why.
Current sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are running 1.5 to 2+ degrees degrees above normal for the next seven days, with the warmer areas nearer the Texas Coast.
Historical Intervals Between Major Hurricanes
NOAA’s Climate Center shows the average interval for major hurricanes striking the Houston area is about every 25 years.
NOAA’s Climate Center also tracks the average return period for MAJOR hurricanes at various points along the coastline. They show that the Houston area can expect on average one major hurricane about every 25 years.
Of course, a hurricane doesn’t have to be major to cause major damage. Allison and Imelda were just tropical storms. And averages are just that – averages. Ike in 2008 and Harvey in 2017 each attained major hurricane status and hit Houston within 9 years of each other.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1455 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/two_atl_5d0-2.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2021-08-23 20:07:252021-08-23 20:10:00Atlantic Basin Heating Up with Potential Tropical Activity
So Far, 99L Headed Toward Gulf Along Same Track as Harvey
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, forecasts a potential hurricane threat for the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. And it’s following the same track as Harvey – almost four years later to the day.
Current Location of 99L in South-Central Caribbean
A tropical wave currently designated 99L and moving westward in the Caribbean off the coast of Columbia still has no center of circulation. However, global models indicate that it will continue to develop over the western Caribbean Sea either Friday or Saturday and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
Still a Wide Range of Potential Tracks for 99L
There has been a significant shift during the last 24 hours to the right (east). The majority of the models now show 99L heading in the direction of the northwest Gulf of Mexico. However, models also show a wide range of potential tracks from northern Mexico to the Mississippi coast.
So, a fair amount of uncertainty exists in the forecast, especially since there is such spread in the ensemble guidance. The lack of a defined surface center at the moment increases that uncertainty.
This weekend will be the fourth anniversary of Harvey. It’s eerie to note the similarities between that storm and this one.
Intensification Very Likely
Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico appear to be favorable for intensification.
Lindner warns that It is too early to start discussing impacts because of the uncertainty on the track. However, he does see increasing tides and 10-15 foot waves from Sunday into Monday. Rain chances will increase starting today and remain high into the weekend.
“Obviously,” says Lindner, “the forecast and potential impacts will have significant changes as the track become more clear in the coming days.”
Residents and interest along the TX and LA coast should review hurricane plans and make sure hurricane supplies are fully stocked. Monitor forecasts closely and frequently.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2021 based on information from HCFCD, NOAA, NHC and Tropical Tidbits
1457 Days since Hurricane Harvey
City Starting to Excavate Bottlenecks Under Kingwood Drive
For more than a year, HCFCD has excavated Ben’s Branch in four different phases. However, significant sediment remained under the Kingwood Drive Bridge. That’s property owned and maintained by the City of Houston. And now they are excavating that to eliminate a bottleneck. Such bottlenecks can back water up, damaging homes and businesses.
According to Sarman, who talked with the construction manager, after the crew completes work here, it will remove sediment from the bottleneck at the Kingwood Diversion Ditch next to the fire station on Kingwood Drive.
These are little things that make a big difference to people who previously flooded. And there were plenty of them along Ben’s Branch, especially in the Town Center Area. Some businesses still haven’t recovered. The shopping center north of these photos is still largely vacant thanks to catastrophic flooding during Harvey and a ditch whose conveyance was severely reduced, in part, by bottlenecks like this one.
Thanks go to Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin and his staff at the District E council office.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2021 with photos from Stan Sarman
1456 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Atlantic Basin Heating Up with Potential Tropical Activity
As we approach the 4th anniversary of Hurricane Harvey, the Atlantic basin is currently heating up with tropical activity. As remnants of one hurricane washing across New England, two more areas of concern move toward the Northeast. A third is heading toward the northwest Caribbean. It’s still too early to tell exactly where these storms will make landfall. But the presence of so many tropical disturbances signals the need to stay alert to daily weather forecasts.
Each of these storms has a 40-60% chance of tropical formation.
Five Day Outlook for Tropical Activity
Retreat of High-Pressure System Over Texas
National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea will form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions favor gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
In addition to that, another major low pressure area over Mexico and the Bay of Campeche could move into the Gulf by this weekend though no tropical activity is forecast at this time.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, warns that as the high pressure ridge currently sitting over Houston begins to retreat north by Wednesday, “A series of tropical waves and disturbances will move from east to west across the US Gulf coast and into coastal TX from mid week onward. With a significant influx of Gulf moisture, showers and thunderstorms will return as early as Wednesday across much of the area and last likely into next week. Locally heavy rainfall will become an increasing threat by late week and this weekend with tropical moisture firmly in place over the region.”
Historical Norms for Late August
NOAA’s Climate Center shows that the projected path of the current areas of concern should follow historical norms for this time of the year.
This is one of the reasons why.
Historical Intervals Between Major Hurricanes
NOAA’s Climate Center also tracks the average return period for MAJOR hurricanes at various points along the coastline. They show that the Houston area can expect on average one major hurricane about every 25 years.
Of course, a hurricane doesn’t have to be major to cause major damage. Allison and Imelda were just tropical storms. And averages are just that – averages. Ike in 2008 and Harvey in 2017 each attained major hurricane status and hit Houston within 9 years of each other.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1455 Days since Hurricane Harvey