The forecasts turned out to be accurate. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, “Hurricane Ida made landfall at 11:55 am today at Port Fourchon, LA with sustained winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 930mb.” Storm surge at the coast is 12 feet above ground level.
Image from RadarScope Pro from KLIX New Orleans Radar.
Wind Reports
Although Ida’s extreme winds are confined to the inner eyewall, aircraft data indicate that hurricane-force winds extend outward about 45 nautical miles to the northeast of the center. Based on buoy data the tropical-storm-force wind field extends outward about 130 nautical miles northeast of the center. Here are some readings as of 1PM Sunday 8/29/2021.
Grand Isle: 146mph (unconfirmed)
Port Fourchon: 153mph (unconfirmed ship)
West Delta Oil Platform: 149mph (elevated just off the coast)
Wind Forecast
For those with friends and relatives in Louisiana who did not evacuate, the National Weather Service predicts that winds will remain over 100 mph for the next 12 hours, decrease to 60 within 24 hours, the drop to 35 mph within 36 hours. Damaging wind gusts are expected in metropolitan New Orleans.
Misery Not Yet Over
The storm should follow this track.
Ida’s track will take it over portions of Tennessee severely damaged by flash flooding last weekend.
Large portions of SE Louisiana could see 15-20 inches of rain.
Most of the state has a moderate to high risk of flash flooding.
“Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts,” says the NHC. “As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.”
Storm Surge
Storm surge has deadly potential along the coast. NHC calls it, “Extremely life-threatening.” And they say, “Overtopping of local levees … is possible.”
Surge recorded so far:
East Bank Mississippi River (South of New Orleans): 12.15ft (AGL)
Shell Beach: 7.51ft (AGL)
Grand Isle: 6-8 ft (AGL)
Thus far all federal levee protection and floodgates/walls are preforming as expected. Catastrophic impacts will continue inland over southeast Louisiana into tonight.
I was planning on doing a 4-year retrospective on Harvey today, but will postpone that out of deference to the suffering east of us. Thoughts and prayers for our neighbors who provided so much help in our hour of need.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/29/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1161 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Attachment-1.png?fit=1242%2C2454&ssl=124541242adminadmin2021-08-29 14:32:082021-08-29 14:49:23Cat-4 Ida Hits Louisiana with 150 MPH Winds and 12-Foot Storm Surge
On August 20, 2021, four-years after Harvey inundated Humble/Kingwood and 20 months after the City of Houston started dredging the San Jacinto West Fork mouth bar, the City finally posted a request for qualifications to develop a long-range dredging plan for the Lake Houston Area.
The plan will cover the entire Lake Houston Area including: publicly owned canals, inlets, and coves; the West Fork up to I-69, and the East Fork to the confluence with Caney Creek. The City wants the plan finished within two years.
Plan Scope
Scope of the long-range dredging plan includes:
Developing a digital terrain model that updates Texas Water Development Board models developed in 2011 and 2018 to reflect dredging activity that has taken place since then.
Verifying where and how quickly sediment accumulates.
Determining ownership of private canals and legal obstacles associated with dredging them.
Identifying disposal sites for the dredging spoils.
Investigating costs for both mechanical and hydraulic dredging through both private and public entities.
Exploring options for future funding of maintenance dredging.
Evaluation Criteria
Firms will be evaluated on:
Responsiveness of their submissions to the criteria outlined.
Technical competence, which is a composite of:
Firm Qualifications
Expertise, experience and qualifications of key personnel
Project approach to meeting deliverables, managing risk, and managing work
Proposed plan and strategy for meeting project schedules
Success with similar projects in the past
Participation by Minority/Women-Owned Business Enterprises
Since my last update three weeks ago, dredgers has moved into the channel south of Royal Shores that connects the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto.
Dredgers have finally entered the channel between the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto on their way to the East Fork. Photo taken 8/28/2021Since my last update on August 6, 2021, the dredging has moved another 600 feet into the channel connecting the East and West Forks south of Royal Shores.
Four Years Ago Tonight
The current rate of dredging is consistent with the rate observed on August 6, about 200 feet per week. At this rate, it will take another two months until contractors even reach the East Fork. And at least another two years before we get a long-range dredging plan. That will be six years after Harvey.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20210828-DJI_0427.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2021-08-28 17:21:222021-09-23 15:54:57City of Houston Posts Request for Qualifications to Develop Long-Range Dredging Plan
As of 3 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center indicated Tropical Storm Ida had intensified into a hurricane about to cross over the western tip of Cuba. They warn that it could turn into a category 4 hurricane. It is currently predicted to cross over Louisiana, dump up to 20 inches of rain, and produce 15 feet of storm surge on Sunday.
Warnings Now In Effect
The NHC has also posted several warnings. They include:
Storm Surge Warning from Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge in Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
Hurricane Warning for the coast of Louisiana including Lake Pontchartrain and Metropolitan New Orleans.
Tropical Storm Warning from the mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.
Hurricane Ida over the western tip of Cuba as of 3PM Houston timeon 8/27/2021
Rapid Intensification
According to the National Hurricane Center, radar indicated a closed eye 24 nautical miles wide. Recon aircraft measured winds at 70 knots – hurricane intensity – at 3 PM Houston time.
Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through very warm waters, low wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions should result in rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.
In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased.
Models now predict Ida will reach category 4 intensity. The NHC forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.
National Hurricane Center
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible eyewall replacement cycles. Models also call for Ida’s wind field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.
Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer term motion continues to be northwestward at about 14 mph.
Tracking Quickly Toward Louisiana Then Slowing
Steering currents push Ida northwestward across the Gulf this weekend. But Ida after landfall they will also slow northward motion and cause the system to turn northeastward.
Key Messages
However, remember not to focus on the exact details of the track. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center, says the NHC.
1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions will continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.
4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Story of the Storm in Picture
Confidence in track is increasing. Ida should reach the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts by Sunday afternoon.…but tropical-storm-force winds should arrive by Sunday morning.Most of the Houston area only has about a 10-30% chance of experience tropical-storm-force winds.And we have practically no chance of excessive rainfall that could create flash flooding.Portions of Louisiana, however, will like see 15-20 inches of rain.But the biggest threat by far to our neighbors will come from storm surge. Portions of the delta could see as much as 15 feet above ground level.
Prays for our neighbors. And thank God that we’re on the dry side of this storm. It should hit on August 29th, the fourth anniversary of when Hurricane Harvey triggered massive evacuations in the Lake Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/27/2021
1459 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/155544WPCQPF_sm.gif?fit=892%2C716&ssl=1716892adminadmin2021-08-27 16:38:062021-08-27 16:40:37Ida Now Hurricane, Predicted to Intensify to Category 4, Take Aim at New Orleans
Cat-4 Ida Hits Louisiana with 150 MPH Winds and 12-Foot Storm Surge
The forecasts turned out to be accurate. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, “Hurricane Ida made landfall at 11:55 am today at Port Fourchon, LA with sustained winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 930mb.” Storm surge at the coast is 12 feet above ground level.
Wind Reports
Although Ida’s extreme winds are confined to the inner eyewall, aircraft data indicate that hurricane-force winds extend outward about 45 nautical miles to the northeast of the center. Based on buoy data the tropical-storm-force wind field extends outward about 130 nautical miles northeast of the center. Here are some readings as of 1PM Sunday 8/29/2021.
Grand Isle: 146mph (unconfirmed)
Port Fourchon: 153mph (unconfirmed ship)
West Delta Oil Platform: 149mph (elevated just off the coast)
Wind Forecast
For those with friends and relatives in Louisiana who did not evacuate, the National Weather Service predicts that winds will remain over 100 mph for the next 12 hours, decrease to 60 within 24 hours, the drop to 35 mph within 36 hours. Damaging wind gusts are expected in metropolitan New Orleans.
Misery Not Yet Over
The storm should follow this track.
“Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts,” says the NHC. “As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.”
Storm Surge
Storm surge has deadly potential along the coast. NHC calls it, “Extremely life-threatening.” And they say, “Overtopping of local levees … is possible.”
Surge recorded so far:
East Bank Mississippi River (South of New Orleans): 12.15ft (AGL)
Shell Beach: 7.51ft (AGL)
Grand Isle: 6-8 ft (AGL)
Thus far all federal levee protection and floodgates/walls are preforming as expected. Catastrophic impacts will continue inland over southeast Louisiana into tonight.
I was planning on doing a 4-year retrospective on Harvey today, but will postpone that out of deference to the suffering east of us. Thoughts and prayers for our neighbors who provided so much help in our hour of need.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/29/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1161 Days since Hurricane Harvey
City of Houston Posts Request for Qualifications to Develop Long-Range Dredging Plan
On August 20, 2021, four-years after Harvey inundated Humble/Kingwood and 20 months after the City of Houston started dredging the San Jacinto West Fork mouth bar, the City finally posted a request for qualifications to develop a long-range dredging plan for the Lake Houston Area.
The plan will cover the entire Lake Houston Area including: publicly owned canals, inlets, and coves; the West Fork up to I-69, and the East Fork to the confluence with Caney Creek. The City wants the plan finished within two years.
Plan Scope
Scope of the long-range dredging plan includes:
Developing a digital terrain model that updates Texas Water Development Board models developed in 2011 and 2018 to reflect dredging activity that has taken place since then.
Evaluation Criteria
Firms will be evaluated on:
Extra brownie points go to local businesses.
lf you own or work for a firm that might be interested in responding, here is the complete list of requirements for applicants and forms required for filing.
Progress of Current Dredging
Since my last update three weeks ago, dredgers has moved into the channel south of Royal Shores that connects the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto.
Four Years Ago Tonight
The current rate of dredging is consistent with the rate observed on August 6, about 200 feet per week. At this rate, it will take another two months until contractors even reach the East Fork. And at least another two years before we get a long-range dredging plan. That will be six years after Harvey.
It was around noon on August 28, 2017, that the SJRA began releasing 79,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) from Lake Conroe. All that water arrived in the Kingwood area in the wee hours of August 29 on top of another 160,000 CFS from other sources. Along the way it swept through sand mines and deposited sediment at the mouth of the West Fork that has taken four years and more than $114 million so far to dredge.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/2021
1460 Days (four years) since Hurricane Harvey
Ida Now Hurricane, Predicted to Intensify to Category 4, Take Aim at New Orleans
As of 3 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center indicated Tropical Storm Ida had intensified into a hurricane about to cross over the western tip of Cuba. They warn that it could turn into a category 4 hurricane. It is currently predicted to cross over Louisiana, dump up to 20 inches of rain, and produce 15 feet of storm surge on Sunday.
Warnings Now In Effect
The NHC has also posted several warnings. They include:
Rapid Intensification
According to the National Hurricane Center, radar indicated a closed eye 24 nautical miles wide. Recon aircraft measured winds at 70 knots – hurricane intensity – at 3 PM Houston time.
Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through very warm waters, low wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions should result in rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.
In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased.
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible eyewall replacement cycles. Models also call for Ida’s wind field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.
Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer term motion continues to be northwestward at about 14 mph.
Tracking Quickly Toward Louisiana Then Slowing
Steering currents push Ida northwestward across the Gulf this weekend. But Ida after landfall they will also slow northward motion and cause the system to turn northeastward.
Key Messages
However, remember not to focus on the exact details of the track. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center, says the NHC.
1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions will continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.
4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Story of the Storm in Picture
Prays for our neighbors. And thank God that we’re on the dry side of this storm. It should hit on August 29th, the fourth anniversary of when Hurricane Harvey triggered massive evacuations in the Lake Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/27/2021
1459 Days since Hurricane Harvey