As we approach the 4th anniversary of Hurricane Harvey, the Atlantic basin is currently heating up with tropical activity. As remnants of one hurricane washing across New England, two more areas of concern move toward the Northeast. A third is heading toward the northwest Caribbean. It’s still too early to tell exactly where these storms will make landfall. But the presence of so many tropical disturbances signals the need to stay alert to daily weather forecasts.
Each of these storms has a 40-60% chance of tropical formation.
Five Day Outlook for Tropical Activity
8 PM outlook on 8/23/2021 indicates the storms heading toward the NW Caribbean have a 50% chance of tropical formation in the next five days. That’s up from 30% this morning.
Retreat of High-Pressure System Over Texas
National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea will form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions favor gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
In addition to that, another major low pressure area over Mexico and the Bay of Campeche could move into the Gulf by this weekend though no tropical activity is forecast at this time.
Note massive low pressure system moving into Gulf.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, warns that as the high pressure ridge currently sitting over Houston begins to retreat north by Wednesday, “A series of tropical waves and disturbances will move from east to west across the US Gulf coast and into coastal TX from mid week onward. With a significant influx of Gulf moisture, showers and thunderstorms will return as early as Wednesday across much of the area and last likely into next week. Locally heavy rainfall will become an increasing threat by late week and this weekend with tropical moisture firmly in place over the region.”
Historical Norms for Late August
NOAA’s Climate Center shows that the projected path of the current areas of concern should follow historical norms for this time of the year.
This diagram shows the most likely areas for formation for hurricanes in August and their prevailing tracks. Source: NOAA’s Climate Center.
This is one of the reasons why.
Current sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are running 1.5 to 2+ degrees degrees above normal for the next seven days, with the warmer areas nearer the Texas Coast.
Historical Intervals Between Major Hurricanes
NOAA’s Climate Center shows the average interval for major hurricanes striking the Houston area is about every 25 years.
NOAA’s Climate Center also tracks the average return period for MAJOR hurricanes at various points along the coastline. They show that the Houston area can expect on average one major hurricane about every 25 years.
Of course, a hurricane doesn’t have to be major to cause major damage. Allison and Imelda were just tropical storms. And averages are just that – averages. Ike in 2008 and Harvey in 2017 each attained major hurricane status and hit Houston within 9 years of each other.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1455 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/two_atl_5d0-2.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2021-08-23 20:07:252021-08-23 20:10:00Atlantic Basin Heating Up with Potential Tropical Activity
Late this week and early next will be the fourth anniversary of Harvey’s four day rampage through the Houston area. The storm broke so many records that NOAA retired its name. A year later, still reeling from the storm’s effects, Harris County voters approved a $2.5 billion bond issue to catch up with decades of chronic underfunding for HCFCD.
Since then, the rate of spending on flood mitigation projects has more than doubled. And the rate will accelerate even more as more projects move from engineering to construction.
High-Level Findings
Three years into a 10-year bond, HCFCD has spent slightly more than 30% of the money. That puts them exactly on track time-wise.
$251 million in contracts have been awarded to engineering companies
$552 million in contracts have been awarded for construction of capital improvements and repairs.
27 projects have completed, removing 11,000 homes from 100-year floodplains
Another 660 buyouts have been completed with another 662 in process.
Back in 2018, the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) vowed to be open and transparent with bond funds. This report shows how, when, and where it spent the public’s money.
Accurate Snapshot of Progress
Until now, HCFCD’s website was the primary means for communicating with the public. But information was scattered across hundreds of pages and updates took place incrementally. That meant information on some watersheds was current and others could be months old. That made it difficult to get an accurate snapshot of progress.
To rectify this problem, HCFCD last week released the first in a series of new monthly reports. It gives everybody in every watershed information about what’s happening that affects them…at a glance.
Types of Information Included
The first report is 37 pages and tracks spending through the end of July 2021.
It’s broken down into a series of sections that include:
An introduction that summarizes active bond projects, grants, local partner funding, buyouts, contracts awarded, projects completed, community engagement, floodplain preservation, selective clearing and turf establishment
A visual timeline that tracks the progress of projects by month and year
Key performance metrics
Recent news
A GANNT chart showing the stages and progress of every single project approved by voters
Eight maps showing cumulative spending from different sources of funding
Two maps showing the location and spending to date on all active construction and maintenance projects in the county.
The Ultimate Go-To Doc on Where Your Money Has Gone
This is the ultimate go-to document for everyone who wants to know what’s happening near them. And HCFCD vows to update it monthly.
If you compare this to articles I previously published on funding, keep in mind that this data includes:
Four more months of spending
Only spending starting August 2018 (approval of the bond fund).
So numbers may vary from posts you see on ReduceFlooding’s Funding page. I also included historical spending going back to 2000 to help put the current spending in context.
Replacing Fear with Facts
All in all, HCFCD’s monthly spending reports will advance the public dialog. It will be good to have discussions based on facts, not just fear.
Flooding is one of the most terrible things that can happen to someone. It produces lasting trauma and alters the trajectory of lives.
To complicate matters, not many people understand what a flood control project is. They may see a jogging trail in a park and not realize it is a massive flood detention basin. They may not realize that a channel through their neighborhood has been widened. And they likely don’t know how to track historical gage data to see if their neighborhoods are flooding from bayous or streets.
This report won’t solve all those problems. But it will go a long way toward helping people understand they have not been forgotten.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2021
1454 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20210822-Screen-Shot-2021-08-22-at-12.37.32-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C925&ssl=19251200adminadmin2021-08-22 12:48:392021-08-22 12:57:08HCFCD Issues Update on Bond Spending In Advance of Harvey’s Fourth Anniversary
Public comment periods are not only for those who object to plans. The public may also support plans. And I plan to support the plan.
Cross section of proposed improvements to dam.
The Corps’ website contains the full public notice, which features a summary of the project, the project plans, and an analysis of the alternatives. These are much more thorough and detailed than any documents published to date. For the historical record, I have copied them to Reports Page of this website under the “Lake Houston Dam Spillway Improvement Project” tab. See:
The City of Houston proposes to improve 1,000 feet of the uncontrolled Ambursen spillway with the installation of new, controlled, Obermeyer spillway gates along the western portion of the existing Lake Houston Dam structure.
To accomplish this, the existing spillway crest would be lowered approximately 3.5 ft and fitted with an Obermeyer spillway gate structure. To further stabilize the dam structure, 150,000 cubic yards of rubble backfill will be deposited within the same 1,000 ft of the existing concrete structure.
The temporary cofferdam would be installed in sections that would enable the construction of a single Obermeyer spillway gate at a time. To facilitate access from the downstream side, backfill would then be installed within the Ambursen bays and in the downstream concrete-lined channel.
The spillway crest of the existing Ambursen spillway would then be demolished and the new concrete crest with the associated Obermeyer spillway gates and hydromechanical works would be built. The timeframe to complete this project will be approximately 18 to 24 months.
Avoidance and Minimization of Negative Impacts
The City conducted a thorough and extensive planning process to design a project that avoids and minimizes impacts to wetlands, special aquatic sites, and Waters of the United States as much as possible and feasible, while also satisfying the need.
During Hurricane Harvey, rainwater entered the lake at a rate of 430,000 cubic feet per second. An estimated 20,000 homes and businesses were flooded upstream. The reservoir passed the equivalent of its own storage capacity every half hour.
Due to the large influx of water over a short amount of time, the Lake Houston Dam was not able to release water fast enough to protect area homes, businesses, and public infrastructure from floodwater. Improvements are needed to the Lake Houston Dam to enable controlled releases ahead of major storm events and to further stabilize the 70-year-old structure.
This 36-page analysis shows the alternatives considered by project engineers. It also contains a matrix comparing the pros and cons of 11 alternatives, and which among them was the Least Environmentally Damaging Practicable Alternative.
By improving the existing dam, floodwaters can be rapidly released under controlled circumstances or stored to meet drinking water needs.
Please Support
Lake Houston Area leaders identified the need for a larger release capacity early on as one of three primary objectives (upstream detention to slow down inbound water, dredging to speed up throughput, and more gates to speed up outflow).
Approximately 20,000 homes and businesses flooded when water could not get out of the lake fast enough. We need this project.
Benefits of the project include:
Reduction of flood heights
Protection of property
Faster release rate reduces uncertainty associated with pre-releases when attempting to add extra capacity to the lake in advance of approaching storms.
Saves water needed for drinking
How to Submit Comments
To support this project, email comments to the Regulatory Division, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Galveston District by clicking this link: Public Notice Comment Email. Make sure you reference the public notice number: SWG-2020-00271, and be sure to include your name address, and phone number.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/21
1453 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20210821-Screen-Shot-2021-08-21-at-12.28.01-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C546&ssl=15461200adminadmin2021-08-21 13:39:392021-08-21 13:39:46Public Comment Period on Gates Closes Monday
Atlantic Basin Heating Up with Potential Tropical Activity
As we approach the 4th anniversary of Hurricane Harvey, the Atlantic basin is currently heating up with tropical activity. As remnants of one hurricane washing across New England, two more areas of concern move toward the Northeast. A third is heading toward the northwest Caribbean. It’s still too early to tell exactly where these storms will make landfall. But the presence of so many tropical disturbances signals the need to stay alert to daily weather forecasts.
Each of these storms has a 40-60% chance of tropical formation.
Five Day Outlook for Tropical Activity
Retreat of High-Pressure System Over Texas
National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea will form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions favor gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
In addition to that, another major low pressure area over Mexico and the Bay of Campeche could move into the Gulf by this weekend though no tropical activity is forecast at this time.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, warns that as the high pressure ridge currently sitting over Houston begins to retreat north by Wednesday, “A series of tropical waves and disturbances will move from east to west across the US Gulf coast and into coastal TX from mid week onward. With a significant influx of Gulf moisture, showers and thunderstorms will return as early as Wednesday across much of the area and last likely into next week. Locally heavy rainfall will become an increasing threat by late week and this weekend with tropical moisture firmly in place over the region.”
Historical Norms for Late August
NOAA’s Climate Center shows that the projected path of the current areas of concern should follow historical norms for this time of the year.
This is one of the reasons why.
Historical Intervals Between Major Hurricanes
NOAA’s Climate Center also tracks the average return period for MAJOR hurricanes at various points along the coastline. They show that the Houston area can expect on average one major hurricane about every 25 years.
Of course, a hurricane doesn’t have to be major to cause major damage. Allison and Imelda were just tropical storms. And averages are just that – averages. Ike in 2008 and Harvey in 2017 each attained major hurricane status and hit Houston within 9 years of each other.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1455 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD Issues Update on Bond Spending In Advance of Harvey’s Fourth Anniversary
Last Friday, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) issued a 37-page report detailing spending on 2018 flood-bond projects to date. It was attached to the agenda for the Harris County Commissioner’s Court meeting on Tuesday, August 24, 2021.
Background
Late this week and early next will be the fourth anniversary of Harvey’s four day rampage through the Houston area. The storm broke so many records that NOAA retired its name. A year later, still reeling from the storm’s effects, Harris County voters approved a $2.5 billion bond issue to catch up with decades of chronic underfunding for HCFCD.
Since then, the rate of spending on flood mitigation projects has more than doubled. And the rate will accelerate even more as more projects move from engineering to construction.
High-Level Findings
Three years into a 10-year bond, HCFCD has spent slightly more than 30% of the money. That puts them exactly on track time-wise.
Among other things, the full report released last Friday shows that:
Back in 2018, the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) vowed to be open and transparent with bond funds. This report shows how, when, and where it spent the public’s money.
Accurate Snapshot of Progress
Until now, HCFCD’s website was the primary means for communicating with the public. But information was scattered across hundreds of pages and updates took place incrementally. That meant information on some watersheds was current and others could be months old. That made it difficult to get an accurate snapshot of progress.
To rectify this problem, HCFCD last week released the first in a series of new monthly reports. It gives everybody in every watershed information about what’s happening that affects them…at a glance.
Types of Information Included
The first report is 37 pages and tracks spending through the end of July 2021.
It’s broken down into a series of sections that include:
The Ultimate Go-To Doc on Where Your Money Has Gone
This is the ultimate go-to document for everyone who wants to know what’s happening near them. And HCFCD vows to update it monthly.
If you compare this to articles I previously published on funding, keep in mind that this data includes:
So numbers may vary from posts you see on ReduceFlooding’s Funding page. I also included historical spending going back to 2000 to help put the current spending in context.
Replacing Fear with Facts
All in all, HCFCD’s monthly spending reports will advance the public dialog. It will be good to have discussions based on facts, not just fear.
Flooding is one of the most terrible things that can happen to someone. It produces lasting trauma and alters the trajectory of lives.
To complicate matters, not many people understand what a flood control project is. They may see a jogging trail in a park and not realize it is a massive flood detention basin. They may not realize that a channel through their neighborhood has been widened. And they likely don’t know how to track historical gage data to see if their neighborhoods are flooding from bayous or streets.
This report won’t solve all those problems. But it will go a long way toward helping people understand they have not been forgotten.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2021
1454 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Public Comment Period on Gates Closes Monday
The Army Corps’ public comment period for adding additional gates to Lake Houston will close on Monday, 8/23/2021. The Army Corps first posted the public notice on 7/22/21.
Public comment periods are not only for those who object to plans. The public may also support plans. And I plan to support the plan.
The Corps’ website contains the full public notice, which features a summary of the project, the project plans, and an analysis of the alternatives. These are much more thorough and detailed than any documents published to date. For the historical record, I have copied them to Reports Page of this website under the “Lake Houston Dam Spillway Improvement Project” tab. See:
Project Description
The City of Houston proposes to improve 1,000 feet of the uncontrolled Ambursen spillway with the installation of new, controlled, Obermeyer spillway gates along the western portion of the existing Lake Houston Dam structure.
To accomplish this, the existing spillway crest would be lowered approximately 3.5 ft and fitted with an Obermeyer spillway gate structure. To further stabilize the dam structure, 150,000 cubic yards of rubble backfill will be deposited within the same 1,000 ft of the existing concrete structure.
The temporary cofferdam would be installed in sections that would enable the construction of a single Obermeyer spillway gate at a time. To facilitate access from the downstream side, backfill would then be installed within the Ambursen bays and in the downstream concrete-lined channel.
The spillway crest of the existing Ambursen spillway would then be demolished and the new concrete crest with the associated Obermeyer spillway gates and hydromechanical works would be built. The timeframe to complete this project will be approximately 18 to 24 months.
Avoidance and Minimization of Negative Impacts
The City conducted a thorough and extensive planning process to design a project that avoids and minimizes impacts to wetlands, special aquatic sites, and Waters of the United States as much as possible and feasible, while also satisfying the need.
During Hurricane Harvey, rainwater entered the lake at a rate of 430,000 cubic feet per second. An estimated 20,000 homes and businesses were flooded upstream. The reservoir passed the equivalent of its own storage capacity every half hour.
Due to the large influx of water over a short amount of time, the Lake Houston Dam was not able to release water fast enough to protect area homes, businesses, and public infrastructure from floodwater. Improvements are needed to the Lake Houston Dam to enable controlled releases ahead of major storm events and to further stabilize the 70-year-old structure.
This 36-page analysis shows the alternatives considered by project engineers. It also contains a matrix comparing the pros and cons of 11 alternatives, and which among them was the Least Environmentally Damaging Practicable Alternative.
By improving the existing dam, floodwaters can be rapidly released under controlled circumstances or stored to meet drinking water needs.
Please Support
Lake Houston Area leaders identified the need for a larger release capacity early on as one of three primary objectives (upstream detention to slow down inbound water, dredging to speed up throughput, and more gates to speed up outflow).
Approximately 20,000 homes and businesses flooded when water could not get out of the lake fast enough. We need this project.
How to Submit Comments
To support this project, email comments to the Regulatory Division, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Galveston District by clicking this link: Public Notice Comment Email. Make sure you reference the public notice number: SWG-2020-00271, and be sure to include your name address, and phone number.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/21
1453 Days since Hurricane Harvey