On August 20, 2021, four-years after Harvey inundated Humble/Kingwood and 20 months after the City of Houston started dredging the San Jacinto West Fork mouth bar, the City finally posted a request for qualifications to develop a long-range dredging plan for the Lake Houston Area.
The plan will cover the entire Lake Houston Area including: publicly owned canals, inlets, and coves; the West Fork up to I-69, and the East Fork to the confluence with Caney Creek. The City wants the plan finished within two years.
Plan Scope
Scope of the long-range dredging plan includes:
Developing a digital terrain model that updates Texas Water Development Board models developed in 2011 and 2018 to reflect dredging activity that has taken place since then.
Verifying where and how quickly sediment accumulates.
Determining ownership of private canals and legal obstacles associated with dredging them.
Identifying disposal sites for the dredging spoils.
Investigating costs for both mechanical and hydraulic dredging through both private and public entities.
Exploring options for future funding of maintenance dredging.
Evaluation Criteria
Firms will be evaluated on:
Responsiveness of their submissions to the criteria outlined.
Technical competence, which is a composite of:
Firm Qualifications
Expertise, experience and qualifications of key personnel
Project approach to meeting deliverables, managing risk, and managing work
Proposed plan and strategy for meeting project schedules
Success with similar projects in the past
Participation by Minority/Women-Owned Business Enterprises
Since my last update three weeks ago, dredgers has moved into the channel south of Royal Shores that connects the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto.
Dredgers have finally entered the channel between the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto on their way to the East Fork. Photo taken 8/28/2021Since my last update on August 6, 2021, the dredging has moved another 600 feet into the channel connecting the East and West Forks south of Royal Shores.
Four Years Ago Tonight
The current rate of dredging is consistent with the rate observed on August 6, about 200 feet per week. At this rate, it will take another two months until contractors even reach the East Fork. And at least another two years before we get a long-range dredging plan. That will be six years after Harvey.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20210828-DJI_0427.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2021-08-28 17:21:222021-09-23 15:54:57City of Houston Posts Request for Qualifications to Develop Long-Range Dredging Plan
As of 3 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center indicated Tropical Storm Ida had intensified into a hurricane about to cross over the western tip of Cuba. They warn that it could turn into a category 4 hurricane. It is currently predicted to cross over Louisiana, dump up to 20 inches of rain, and produce 15 feet of storm surge on Sunday.
Warnings Now In Effect
The NHC has also posted several warnings. They include:
Storm Surge Warning from Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge in Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
Hurricane Warning for the coast of Louisiana including Lake Pontchartrain and Metropolitan New Orleans.
Tropical Storm Warning from the mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.
Hurricane Ida over the western tip of Cuba as of 3PM Houston timeon 8/27/2021
Rapid Intensification
According to the National Hurricane Center, radar indicated a closed eye 24 nautical miles wide. Recon aircraft measured winds at 70 knots – hurricane intensity – at 3 PM Houston time.
Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through very warm waters, low wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions should result in rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.
In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased.
Models now predict Ida will reach category 4 intensity. The NHC forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.
National Hurricane Center
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible eyewall replacement cycles. Models also call for Ida’s wind field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.
Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer term motion continues to be northwestward at about 14 mph.
Tracking Quickly Toward Louisiana Then Slowing
Steering currents push Ida northwestward across the Gulf this weekend. But Ida after landfall they will also slow northward motion and cause the system to turn northeastward.
Key Messages
However, remember not to focus on the exact details of the track. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center, says the NHC.
1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions will continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.
4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Story of the Storm in Picture
Confidence in track is increasing. Ida should reach the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts by Sunday afternoon.…but tropical-storm-force winds should arrive by Sunday morning.Most of the Houston area only has about a 10-30% chance of experience tropical-storm-force winds.And we have practically no chance of excessive rainfall that could create flash flooding.Portions of Louisiana, however, will like see 15-20 inches of rain.But the biggest threat by far to our neighbors will come from storm surge. Portions of the delta could see as much as 15 feet above ground level.
Prays for our neighbors. And thank God that we’re on the dry side of this storm. It should hit on August 29th, the fourth anniversary of when Hurricane Harvey triggered massive evacuations in the Lake Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/27/2021
1459 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/155544WPCQPF_sm.gif?fit=892%2C716&ssl=1716892adminadmin2021-08-27 16:38:062021-08-27 16:40:37Ida Now Hurricane, Predicted to Intensify to Category 4, Take Aim at New Orleans
1968 … the year that humans first traveled around the moon during the Apollo 8 mission. It was a triumphant time for America and Houston, home of the NASA “Manned Spacecraft Center,” its name at the time. We could do anything, it seemed. And we did.
1968 Plan for 1990
A reader recently sent me a preliminary plan developed in 1968 called Houston 1990. The Honorable Louis Welch was Mayor and Intercontinental Airport was still a year away from opening. And the Houston Planning Commission (which developed the plan) clearly had its eye on supporting future growth. The plan discussed new water sources, transportation corridors, green space, cultural amenities, employment centers, retail centers, housing choices and more.
Not all of ideas became reality. But most did.
Hits and Misses
For instance, the plan talks about an “emerging” office, retail and high-rise residential area near Westheimer and West Loop 610. (The Galleria?) It also mentions an emerging business area near Holcomb and Main (The Medical Center?) It predicted the continued dominance of single-family housing and the need outlying employment centers as Houston expanded so people could continue to live near where they worked.
For younger Houstonians, it will be a lesson in the value of planning. For instance, future transportation options can be taken off the table if land isn’t set aside early enough and people build homes on it. That’s why it’s interesting to see something that looks like a network of greenbelts where the Grand Parkway is now.
But people also ignored parts of the plan. For instance, the need for flood control. The plan designated wide green spaces around bayous and creeks which were largely undeveloped at the time. They could have been used for detention ponds and channel expansion as development pushed outward.
Reservoirs that Never Happened
The plan also showed large reservoirs.
One was immediately west of what is now Kingwood where Spring and Cypress Creeks come together with the San Jacinto West Fork near I-69.
Another was west of a tiny town in the hinterlands called Tomball on Spring Creek.
A third was on the Brazos River near Richmond and Rosenberg.
And the fourth was a sprawling affair north of Lake Houston that took in portions of Peach and Caney Creeks, the San Jacinto East Fork and Luce Bayou.
Not one of these reservoirs was developed. And with few exceptions, none of the land along the bayous was set aside. The land along the rivers and streams became settled. And now those areas flood significantly during heavy rains.
Olive-colored areas represent open spaces recommended as set-asides for recreation, water resources, and flood control. However, little of the land was actually set aside for those purposes. The large green ring around the City is now the Grand Parkway.
Building flood mitigation projects along these waterways now would be difficult. It often requires buyouts that can take a decade or more. This problem was foreseen. People were already building up to the edge of bayous, as you can see in the enlarged portion of the map below that shows Halls Bayou.
Halls Bayou in 1968. Note the green areas suggested as set-asides for “open space” along the bayou where development was already crowding the stream banks, leaving few options for flood control.
Many outlying areas that were sparsely populated in 1968 would follow the Halls Bayou pattern.
People would demand flood mitigation after, not before development.
However, that can become expensive and controversial as we saw this week in Huffman. Some areas there along Luce Bayou flooded badly during Harvey and Imelda. Harris County Flood Control District commissioned a flood-mitigation study that recommended a construction of bypass channel (see sections 4.1.3 and 4.1.4).
But local opposition developed from homeowners whose property would be affected. They fought the project. Harris County Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia killed it in the 8/24/21 Commissioner’s Court meeting, citing local opposition. That left Huffman with no immediate flood-mitigation hopes after three years of study and planning.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Prelim-Plan-1968.jpg?fit=1200%2C1071&ssl=110711200adminadmin2021-08-27 14:39:352021-08-27 15:10:39The Future that Houston Envisioned for 1990 … in 1968
City of Houston Posts Request for Qualifications to Develop Long-Range Dredging Plan
On August 20, 2021, four-years after Harvey inundated Humble/Kingwood and 20 months after the City of Houston started dredging the San Jacinto West Fork mouth bar, the City finally posted a request for qualifications to develop a long-range dredging plan for the Lake Houston Area.
The plan will cover the entire Lake Houston Area including: publicly owned canals, inlets, and coves; the West Fork up to I-69, and the East Fork to the confluence with Caney Creek. The City wants the plan finished within two years.
Plan Scope
Scope of the long-range dredging plan includes:
Developing a digital terrain model that updates Texas Water Development Board models developed in 2011 and 2018 to reflect dredging activity that has taken place since then.
Evaluation Criteria
Firms will be evaluated on:
Extra brownie points go to local businesses.
lf you own or work for a firm that might be interested in responding, here is the complete list of requirements for applicants and forms required for filing.
Progress of Current Dredging
Since my last update three weeks ago, dredgers has moved into the channel south of Royal Shores that connects the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto.
Four Years Ago Tonight
The current rate of dredging is consistent with the rate observed on August 6, about 200 feet per week. At this rate, it will take another two months until contractors even reach the East Fork. And at least another two years before we get a long-range dredging plan. That will be six years after Harvey.
It was around noon on August 28, 2017, that the SJRA began releasing 79,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) from Lake Conroe. All that water arrived in the Kingwood area in the wee hours of August 29 on top of another 160,000 CFS from other sources. Along the way it swept through sand mines and deposited sediment at the mouth of the West Fork that has taken four years and more than $114 million so far to dredge.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/2021
1460 Days (four years) since Hurricane Harvey
Ida Now Hurricane, Predicted to Intensify to Category 4, Take Aim at New Orleans
As of 3 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center indicated Tropical Storm Ida had intensified into a hurricane about to cross over the western tip of Cuba. They warn that it could turn into a category 4 hurricane. It is currently predicted to cross over Louisiana, dump up to 20 inches of rain, and produce 15 feet of storm surge on Sunday.
Warnings Now In Effect
The NHC has also posted several warnings. They include:
Rapid Intensification
According to the National Hurricane Center, radar indicated a closed eye 24 nautical miles wide. Recon aircraft measured winds at 70 knots – hurricane intensity – at 3 PM Houston time.
Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through very warm waters, low wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions should result in rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.
In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased.
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible eyewall replacement cycles. Models also call for Ida’s wind field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.
Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer term motion continues to be northwestward at about 14 mph.
Tracking Quickly Toward Louisiana Then Slowing
Steering currents push Ida northwestward across the Gulf this weekend. But Ida after landfall they will also slow northward motion and cause the system to turn northeastward.
Key Messages
However, remember not to focus on the exact details of the track. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center, says the NHC.
1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions will continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.
4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Story of the Storm in Picture
Prays for our neighbors. And thank God that we’re on the dry side of this storm. It should hit on August 29th, the fourth anniversary of when Hurricane Harvey triggered massive evacuations in the Lake Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/27/2021
1459 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The Future that Houston Envisioned for 1990 … in 1968
1968 … the year that humans first traveled around the moon during the Apollo 8 mission. It was a triumphant time for America and Houston, home of the NASA “Manned Spacecraft Center,” its name at the time. We could do anything, it seemed. And we did.
1968 Plan for 1990
A reader recently sent me a preliminary plan developed in 1968 called Houston 1990. The Honorable Louis Welch was Mayor and Intercontinental Airport was still a year away from opening. And the Houston Planning Commission (which developed the plan) clearly had its eye on supporting future growth. The plan discussed new water sources, transportation corridors, green space, cultural amenities, employment centers, retail centers, housing choices and more.
Not all of ideas became reality. But most did.
Hits and Misses
For instance, the plan talks about an “emerging” office, retail and high-rise residential area near Westheimer and West Loop 610. (The Galleria?) It also mentions an emerging business area near Holcomb and Main (The Medical Center?) It predicted the continued dominance of single-family housing and the need outlying employment centers as Houston expanded so people could continue to live near where they worked.
For older Houstonians, this will be a nostalgic trip on Rocky and Bullwinkle’s “wayback machine.”
For younger Houstonians, it will be a lesson in the value of planning. For instance, future transportation options can be taken off the table if land isn’t set aside early enough and people build homes on it. That’s why it’s interesting to see something that looks like a network of greenbelts where the Grand Parkway is now.
But people also ignored parts of the plan. For instance, the need for flood control. The plan designated wide green spaces around bayous and creeks which were largely undeveloped at the time. They could have been used for detention ponds and channel expansion as development pushed outward.
Reservoirs that Never Happened
The plan also showed large reservoirs.
Not one of these reservoirs was developed. And with few exceptions, none of the land along the bayous was set aside. The land along the rivers and streams became settled. And now those areas flood significantly during heavy rains.
Difficulty of Flood Mitigation After Development
The planned lake west of Kingwood is now sand mines and subdivisions. Lake Conroe would be built in 1973, five years later farther upstream. And Kingwood started building out in the early 1970s.
Building flood mitigation projects along these waterways now would be difficult. It often requires buyouts that can take a decade or more. This problem was foreseen. People were already building up to the edge of bayous, as you can see in the enlarged portion of the map below that shows Halls Bayou.
Many outlying areas that were sparsely populated in 1968 would follow the Halls Bayou pattern.
However, that can become expensive and controversial as we saw this week in Huffman. Some areas there along Luce Bayou flooded badly during Harvey and Imelda. Harris County Flood Control District commissioned a flood-mitigation study that recommended a construction of bypass channel (see sections 4.1.3 and 4.1.4).
But local opposition developed from homeowners whose property would be affected. They fought the project. Harris County Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia killed it in the 8/24/21 Commissioner’s Court meeting, citing local opposition. That left Huffman with no immediate flood-mitigation hopes after three years of study and planning.
For Complete 1968 Study
For a high resolution PDF of the entire 1968 plan and accompanying text, click here. (Caution: 33″x30″, 14 megabyte file. Best viewed on large screen. )
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/27/2021
1459 Days after Hurricane Harvey