Overnight, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical cyclone formation for Invest 94L to 60% in the next five days. Yesterday, NHC estimated 20%. “Invest” stands for Area of Investigation.
Reasons for Increased Chance of Formation
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “The tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic is fairly disorganized this morning with scattered areas of deep convection. The wave is moving westward and this motion will continue for the next 5-7 days.”
If you looked only at climate history for this time of year, says Lindner, you would not give this disturbance much of a chance to intensify into a tropical cyclone.
However, low wind shear, modest forward motion, and available moisture in the wave all support some degree of development in the next few days.
Storm Track Forecasts
Most models show development as the wave nears or reaches the eastern Caribbean Islands. European and Global forecast models tightly align with a track through the extreme southern Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, the Canadian model shows the storm tracking farther north at a higher intensity.
Virtually all models indicate similar tracks until the system reaches the central Caribbean Sea.
Lindner believes the southern track is most likely given the time of year. He also sees potential for intensification due to favorable atmospheric conditions along the path. The satellite photo below shows the current extent of the disturbance.
94L is in lower right.
The National Hurricane Center says, “A tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands.”
If you like viewing satellite images and animations from a wide variety of sources, I highly recommend the following sites:
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/image003-e1656082390202.png?fit=1244%2C755&ssl=17551244adminadmin2022-06-24 10:33:452022-06-24 10:33:48Chances of Formation Increase to 60% for Invest 94L
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, the high pressure weather pattern that has created unprecedented temperatures since late May will finally move away early next week. That should bring decent rain chances to the region.
The mid- and upper-level ridge of high pressure over Texas will meander overhead through the weekend with highs ranging from 99-103 each day. Then, the ridge will break down and shift westward early next week. Until then, however, we will be near or at heat-advisory criteria from Friday through the weekend. Sea-breeze showers are possible today, but less likely Friday-Sunday.
Global models consistently predict that the high-pressure ridge will shift westward. That will let a frontal system slip into the region from the NE/ENE either late Sunday or early Monday.
“If you wanted cooler temperatures and some rainfall…this is one way to get it in the middle of summer.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist
Rainfall Chances Next Week
Gulf moisture should also increase early next week. That will bring desperately needed showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday night and continuing into much of next week. Widespread rainfall amounts of .50-1.0 of an inch will be possible, with some locations seeing higher totals of 2-3 inches. Rainfall will likely affect much of the state.
The front should stall near the coast or even offshore at some point next week and eventually wash out.
Most of the Houston area could see up to an inch of rain next week.
Galveston Sea Surface Temps
Lindner warns that “We will have to keep an eye on the decaying boundary for any sort of low pressure area that may try to develop. No models show anything of concern at this point. But we should carefully watch any front over the very warm Gulf waters this time of year.
A strong tropical wave is moving westward into the Atlantic from Africa. The National Hurricane Center expects little development of this wave over the next 2-3 days. However, global models indicate that as this wave nears the Caribbean next week, conditions may be favorable for some development.
According to Lindner, tropical development this far east rarely happens this time of year. However, it does happen occasionally.
Tropical waves tend to struggle in this area this time of year. So development chances are only 20% right now. But no one knows yet what will happen when it reaches the Caribbean next week.
Season’s first Saharan tropical wave is moving toward the Caribbean and could arrive next week.
Pardon my rant about the phrase “historic disinvestment.” I just came out of another Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force meeting. Much of the conversation centered around “historic disinvestment” in low-to-moderate income (LMI) neighborhoods.
Having examined Harris County flood-mitigation spending in detail for two years now, I asked a simple question. “What is your basis for claiming historic disinvestment?”
No one had an answer. But they’re hoping to find one. In logic, they call this “begging the question.” Begging the question is a fallacy that occurs when an argument’s premise ASSUMES the truth of the conclusion.
The problem: sometimes data contradicts the premise. So let’s take a look at data. Via a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request, I obtained HCFCD and partner spending by watershed going back to 2000. Here’s what it looks like as of the end of the first quarter of 2022.
Four LMI Watersheds Received More Than Half of All Spending
Focus on the four watersheds at the left in the bar graph below. Together, they have received $2 billion out of $3.8 billion. That’s 53% of all flood-mitigation spending since 2000. Out of 23 watersheds!
All four have LMI majorities. Brays has 58% LMI residents. White Oak has 51%. Sims has 65%. And Greens has 57%.
Data obtained from HCFCD via FOIA Request. Valid through end of Q1 22.
Kingwood Doesn’t Get All the Money
Regardless, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis frequently says, “Kingwood gets all the money and poor neighborhoods get none.”
So I looked up the amount of capital improvement construction spending in Kingwood this morning. To my knowledge, in the history of the Flood Control District going back to 1937, we’ve had one capital improvement project that has gotten to the construction phase. That’s an excavation and removal contract now underway in Woodridge Village. The screen capture below shows that HCFCD has paid out $230 dollars on the $1225 contract to date.
Ellis constantly complains about this project and how hard people lobbied him to approve it. Thank you for the magnanimous gesture, Commissioner!
Hmmmm. $230 vs $2,002,838,150. That works out to about one ten-thousandth of one percent (0.00001%) for Kingwood. And the $2 billion represents justfour LMI watersheds! Add the other four and that percentage starts to look road-kill bad.
Gee, with math skills like Rodney’s, little wonder the county is in financial trouble.
But we’re comparing a subdivision to watersheds. So, to be fair, let’s look at affluent watersheds, not just affluent neighborhoods.
Four Affluent Watersheds Get One Third of Four LMI Watersheds
Since Ellis’ argument is that rich neighborhoods like Kingwood get all the flood-mitigation money, let’s look at spending in the four most affluent watersheds (those with the lowest percentages of LMI residents). That should make the most extreme test case.
Little Cypress has 16% LMI. Barker has 22%. Armand has 26%. And Cypress Creek has 26%. Spending in those four watersheds since 2000 totals $599 million out of a total $3.8 billion. That’s 15% compared to 53% for the LMI watersheds.
LMI watersheds still received more than three times the funding of the most affluent. That’s hardly historical discrimination any way you look at it.
Look Forward, Not Back
In the face of these numbers, to talk about historic disinvestment in LMI watersheds stretches credulity. Some might say it sounds downright self-serving. The Latin phrase ignorantia affectata describes what I think is causing the data denial.
I found a great description of it on this blog. “The deniers first deceive themselves that they are sincere in their adherence to falsehoods. Thus they cannot be faulted for acting on genuinely held views. But in truth, they have cultivated an ignorance of the facts, an ignorance so useful that one protects it at all costs … in order to continue using it in one’s own self interest.”
To find genuine solutions to Harris County’s flooding problems, we need to start looking forward, not back. We must focus on the real causes of flooding; not imagined ones. We must put our money where the most flood risk remains after investing nearly $4 billion in the last 22 years. But, sadly, we don’t yet know where that is.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 22, 2022
1758 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Screen-Shot-2022-06-22-at-3.39.23-PM.png?fit=1596%2C1028&ssl=110281596adminadmin2022-06-22 19:27:512022-06-22 20:00:35$230 vs. $2,000,000,000: Where’s the “Historic Disinvestment”?
Chances of Formation Increase to 60% for Invest 94L
Overnight, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical cyclone formation for Invest 94L to 60% in the next five days. Yesterday, NHC estimated 20%. “Invest” stands for Area of Investigation.
Reasons for Increased Chance of Formation
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “The tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic is fairly disorganized this morning with scattered areas of deep convection. The wave is moving westward and this motion will continue for the next 5-7 days.”
If you looked only at climate history for this time of year, says Lindner, you would not give this disturbance much of a chance to intensify into a tropical cyclone.
However, low wind shear, modest forward motion, and available moisture in the wave all support some degree of development in the next few days.
Storm Track Forecasts
Most models show development as the wave nears or reaches the eastern Caribbean Islands. European and Global forecast models tightly align with a track through the extreme southern Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, the Canadian model shows the storm tracking farther north at a higher intensity.
Virtually all models indicate similar tracks until the system reaches the central Caribbean Sea.
Lindner believes the southern track is most likely given the time of year. He also sees potential for intensification due to favorable atmospheric conditions along the path. The satellite photo below shows the current extent of the disturbance.
The National Hurricane Center says, “A tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands.”
If you like viewing satellite images and animations from a wide variety of sources, I highly recommend the following sites:
More news to follow.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/24/22
1760 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Weather Pattern Changing Soon
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, the high pressure weather pattern that has created unprecedented temperatures since late May will finally move away early next week. That should bring decent rain chances to the region.
The mid- and upper-level ridge of high pressure over Texas will meander overhead through the weekend with highs ranging from 99-103 each day. Then, the ridge will break down and shift westward early next week. Until then, however, we will be near or at heat-advisory criteria from Friday through the weekend. Sea-breeze showers are possible today, but less likely Friday-Sunday.
Global models consistently predict that the high-pressure ridge will shift westward. That will let a frontal system slip into the region from the NE/ENE either late Sunday or early Monday.
Rainfall Chances Next Week
Gulf moisture should also increase early next week. That will bring desperately needed showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday night and continuing into much of next week. Widespread rainfall amounts of .50-1.0 of an inch will be possible, with some locations seeing higher totals of 2-3 inches. Rainfall will likely affect much of the state.
The front should stall near the coast or even offshore at some point next week and eventually wash out.
Galveston Sea Surface Temps
Lindner warns that “We will have to keep an eye on the decaying boundary for any sort of low pressure area that may try to develop. No models show anything of concern at this point. But we should carefully watch any front over the very warm Gulf waters this time of year.
Today’s Galveston sea temperature is 87°F. Statistics for 23 Jun (1981–2005) show that the mean temperature is 83 °F, and normally ranges from 81 °F to 85 °F. So we’re much above normal. And higher sea surface temperatures correlate strongly with more intense tropical cyclones. Meanwhile, we need to keep an eye on another weather pattern.
Tropics
A strong tropical wave is moving westward into the Atlantic from Africa. The National Hurricane Center expects little development of this wave over the next 2-3 days. However, global models indicate that as this wave nears the Caribbean next week, conditions may be favorable for some development.
Right now, the wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
According to Lindner, tropical development this far east rarely happens this time of year. However, it does happen occasionally.
Tropical waves tend to struggle in this area this time of year. So development chances are only 20% right now. But no one knows yet what will happen when it reaches the Caribbean next week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/23/2022
1759 Days since Hurricane Harvey
$230 vs. $2,000,000,000: Where’s the “Historic Disinvestment”?
Pardon my rant about the phrase “historic disinvestment.” I just came out of another Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force meeting. Much of the conversation centered around “historic disinvestment” in low-to-moderate income (LMI) neighborhoods.
Having examined Harris County flood-mitigation spending in detail for two years now, I asked a simple question. “What is your basis for claiming historic disinvestment?”
No one had an answer. But they’re hoping to find one. In logic, they call this “begging the question.” Begging the question is a fallacy that occurs when an argument’s premise ASSUMES the truth of the conclusion.
The problem: sometimes data contradicts the premise. So let’s take a look at data. Via a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request, I obtained HCFCD and partner spending by watershed going back to 2000. Here’s what it looks like as of the end of the first quarter of 2022.
Four LMI Watersheds Received More Than Half of All Spending
Focus on the four watersheds at the left in the bar graph below. Together, they have received $2 billion out of $3.8 billion. That’s 53% of all flood-mitigation spending since 2000. Out of 23 watersheds!
All four have LMI majorities. Brays has 58% LMI residents. White Oak has 51%. Sims has 65%. And Greens has 57%.
Kingwood Doesn’t Get All the Money
Regardless, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis frequently says, “Kingwood gets all the money and poor neighborhoods get none.”
So I looked up the amount of capital improvement construction spending in Kingwood this morning. To my knowledge, in the history of the Flood Control District going back to 1937, we’ve had one capital improvement project that has gotten to the construction phase. That’s an excavation and removal contract now underway in Woodridge Village. The screen capture below shows that HCFCD has paid out $230 dollars on the $1225 contract to date.
Ellis constantly complains about this project and how hard people lobbied him to approve it. Thank you for the magnanimous gesture, Commissioner!
Hmmmm. $230 vs $2,002,838,150. That works out to about one ten-thousandth of one percent (0.00001%) for Kingwood. And the $2 billion represents just four LMI watersheds! Add the other four and that percentage starts to look road-kill bad.
But we’re comparing a subdivision to watersheds. So, to be fair, let’s look at affluent watersheds, not just affluent neighborhoods.
Four Affluent Watersheds Get One Third of Four LMI Watersheds
Since Ellis’ argument is that rich neighborhoods like Kingwood get all the flood-mitigation money, let’s look at spending in the four most affluent watersheds (those with the lowest percentages of LMI residents). That should make the most extreme test case.
Little Cypress has 16% LMI. Barker has 22%. Armand has 26%. And Cypress Creek has 26%. Spending in those four watersheds since 2000 totals $599 million out of a total $3.8 billion. That’s 15% compared to 53% for the LMI watersheds.
LMI watersheds still received more than three times the funding of the most affluent. That’s hardly historical discrimination any way you look at it.
Look Forward, Not Back
In the face of these numbers, to talk about historic disinvestment in LMI watersheds stretches credulity. Some might say it sounds downright self-serving. The Latin phrase ignorantia affectata describes what I think is causing the data denial.
I found a great description of it on this blog. “The deniers first deceive themselves that they are sincere in their adherence to falsehoods. Thus they cannot be faulted for acting on genuinely held views. But in truth, they have cultivated an ignorance of the facts, an ignorance so useful that one protects it at all costs … in order to continue using it in one’s own self interest.”
To find genuine solutions to Harris County’s flooding problems, we need to start looking forward, not back. We must focus on the real causes of flooding; not imagined ones. We must put our money where the most flood risk remains after investing nearly $4 billion in the last 22 years. But, sadly, we don’t yet know where that is.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 22, 2022
1758 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.