According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, the high pressure weather pattern that has created unprecedented temperatures since late May will finally move away early next week. That should bring decent rain chances to the region.
The mid- and upper-level ridge of high pressure over Texas will meander overhead through the weekend with highs ranging from 99-103 each day. Then, the ridge will break down and shift westward early next week. Until then, however, we will be near or at heat-advisory criteria from Friday through the weekend. Sea-breeze showers are possible today, but less likely Friday-Sunday.
Global models consistently predict that the high-pressure ridge will shift westward. That will let a frontal system slip into the region from the NE/ENE either late Sunday or early Monday.
Rainfall Chances Next Week
Gulf moisture should also increase early next week. That will bring desperately needed showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday night and continuing into much of next week. Widespread rainfall amounts of .50-1.0 of an inch will be possible, with some locations seeing higher totals of 2-3 inches. Rainfall will likely affect much of the state.
The front should stall near the coast or even offshore at some point next week and eventually wash out.
Galveston Sea Surface Temps
Lindner warns that “We will have to keep an eye on the decaying boundary for any sort of low pressure area that may try to develop. No models show anything of concern at this point. But we should carefully watch any front over the very warm Gulf waters this time of year.
Today’s Galveston sea temperature is 87°F. Statistics for 23 Jun (1981–2005) show that the mean temperature is 83 °F, and normally ranges from 81 °F to 85 °F. So we’re much above normal. And higher sea surface temperatures correlate strongly with more intense tropical cyclones. Meanwhile, we need to keep an eye on another weather pattern.
A strong tropical wave is moving westward into the Atlantic from Africa. The National Hurricane Center expects little development of this wave over the next 2-3 days. However, global models indicate that as this wave nears the Caribbean next week, conditions may be favorable for some development.
Right now, the wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
According to Lindner, tropical development this far east rarely happens this time of year. However, it does happen occasionally.
Tropical waves tend to struggle in this area this time of year. So development chances are only 20% right now. But no one knows yet what will happen when it reaches the Caribbean next week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/23/2022
1759 Days since Hurricane Harvey