The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) posted the June 2022 status of 2018 flood-bond expenditures for Commissioners Court last Friday. Among the report’s highlights: the spending drought continues in the Lake Houston Area where only two capital improvement construction projects are active. Their total reported value: $2 thousand. That’s out of more than $235 million in active construction projects during the month of June.
Said another way, the Lake Houston Area is getting less than one-thousandth of 1% of the construction budget (0.000851%). March and April updates show that no new capital improvement construction projects have started in the Lake Houston Area in months.
Finished detention Basins near Little York and Hopper in the Halls Bayou Watershed, with combined 200 acre-feet of storage.
Wrapped up Halls Bayou conveyance improvements
Began demolition of the old Raveneaux Country Club on Cypress Creek
Started drainage repairs in the Carpenters Bayou watershed
Issued a purchase order for the Atascocita Area Drainage Study, which had been approved on February 8.
Released the Phase II, 1800-page report on flood tunnel feasibility
Spending Breakdowns by Watershed
Harris County contains 23 major watersheds shown below.
The 23 watersheds in Harris County and the amount spent to date from all sources under the 2018 flood bond.
The table and bar graph below make the rank-order and relative magnitude of spending in various watersheds more apparent.
Spending by watershed ranked from high to low.San Jacinto is middle of pack despite being largest watershed in county,Bar graph of table above.
Factors Affecting Watershed Spending
Several factors affect the magnitude of spending in each watershed. They include:
Equity Prioritization Framework – This scoring matrix gives higher priority to projects in low-to-moderate income watersheds that have a high social vulnerability index. Projects with high scores started sooner.
Project Lifecycle Stage – Generally speaking, the earlier a project kicked off, the further along it is in its lifecycle. Studies have completed and construction has started or even completed. Some areas that flood repetitively had engineering studies completed and were already shovel-ready after Harvey.
Buyouts/Right of Way Acquisition – Sometimes entire subdivisions must be bought out to make room for flood mitigation projects. This can delay construction for years.
Lobbying – Squeaky wheels play a role on multiple levels.
Usually, no one factor accounts for a project’s or an area’s ranking. But multiple factors – working together – can push an area up or down the list.
Certainly, some areas have suffered spending-wise because of political priorities.
Other Highlights
HCFCD spent a total of $1.05 billion through the end of May. That compares to $1.025 billion through the end of April. So HCFCD spent $25 million in May.
Of the $1.05 billion spent to date, bond funds comprised $545 million. Grants comprised $367 million. And $140 came from other local funds.
HCFCD reported a schedule performance index of .97. That means projects are running slightly behind schedule. On-schedule performance would have earned a 1.0.
Overall, HCFCD has completed 21.8% of the bond projects when we’re 37.5% of the way through the 10-year program (45 months out of 120).
For the complete June update on bond spending, click here. Remember to review the last page. It shows capital improvement construction projects throughout the county and the spending drought in the Lake Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 26, 2022
1762 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/20220626-Screen-Shot-2022-06-26-at-10.12.36-AM.jpg?fit=1200%2C912&ssl=19121200adminadmin2022-06-26 12:42:522022-06-26 16:04:30May Flood-Bond Update Shows Spending Drought in Lake Houston Area Continues
A weak surface low pressure system may develop into a tropical system over the northern Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week. The National Hurricane Center estimates the chance of development over the next 5 days at 20%. Chances of formation for another disturbance in the Atlantic remain at 60%.
What’s behind this prediction? A front will push through Houston Monday morning. It will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico early next week and then stall.
Location of front on Monday.
AND it will stall over warm waters.
Sea surface temperature anomalies as of 6/25/22. The darker the color, the more above average the temperatures.The whitish blob off the coast of Texas and Louisiana indicates the location of possible cyclone formation next week.Elongated blob at the bottom right indicates forecast track of disturbance in Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center said that if the system does develop, “[It] would likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.”
Rainfall Implications
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, “Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal trough.”
This will bring increasing rain chances to Houston. And potentially alter rainfall accumulation forecasts. Depending on location, you could receive anywhere from a half inch to three inches, according to Space City Weather.
The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts the highest 7-day rainfall totals farther to the east. Our neighbors in Louisiana could see up to five inches.
NWS Weather Prediction Center 7-day rainfall forecast starting today shows highest rainfall totals around Mississippi delta.
At this time, NWS predicts NO flooding for next week. The drought has soil so dry that most rainfall should soak in. Our channels, creeks and bayous should handle any runoff.
Historical Curiosity
Here’s a historical curiosity. This morning, the NWS Houston/Galveston office noted some weather history on this day. “The first half of 1996 was extremely dry over all of Southeast Texas but heavy rains returned during the last week of June. On June 25th 1996, a swath of 2 to 4 inches of rain fell across the southern half of the region with Danevang recording 6.07 inches of rain and Houston Hobby Airport recording 3.30 inches of rain.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/25/22
1761 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/image001-1.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2022-06-25 10:57:192022-06-25 11:03:33Slight Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation in Gulf Next Week
Overnight, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical cyclone formation for Invest 94L to 60% in the next five days. Yesterday, NHC estimated 20%. “Invest” stands for Area of Investigation.
Reasons for Increased Chance of Formation
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “The tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic is fairly disorganized this morning with scattered areas of deep convection. The wave is moving westward and this motion will continue for the next 5-7 days.”
If you looked only at climate history for this time of year, says Lindner, you would not give this disturbance much of a chance to intensify into a tropical cyclone.
However, low wind shear, modest forward motion, and available moisture in the wave all support some degree of development in the next few days.
Storm Track Forecasts
Most models show development as the wave nears or reaches the eastern Caribbean Islands. European and Global forecast models tightly align with a track through the extreme southern Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, the Canadian model shows the storm tracking farther north at a higher intensity.
Virtually all models indicate similar tracks until the system reaches the central Caribbean Sea.
Lindner believes the southern track is most likely given the time of year. He also sees potential for intensification due to favorable atmospheric conditions along the path. The satellite photo below shows the current extent of the disturbance.
94L is in lower right.
The National Hurricane Center says, “A tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands.”
If you like viewing satellite images and animations from a wide variety of sources, I highly recommend the following sites:
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/image003-e1656082390202.png?fit=1244%2C755&ssl=17551244adminadmin2022-06-24 10:33:452022-06-24 10:33:48Chances of Formation Increase to 60% for Invest 94L
May Flood-Bond Update Shows Spending Drought in Lake Houston Area Continues
The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) posted the June 2022 status of 2018 flood-bond expenditures for Commissioners Court last Friday. Among the report’s highlights: the spending drought continues in the Lake Houston Area where only two capital improvement construction projects are active. Their total reported value: $2 thousand. That’s out of more than $235 million in active construction projects during the month of June.
Said another way, the Lake Houston Area is getting less than one-thousandth of 1% of the construction budget (0.000851%). March and April updates show that no new capital improvement construction projects have started in the Lake Houston Area in months.
Project Highlights
In the good news category, HCFCD:
Spending Breakdowns by Watershed
Harris County contains 23 major watersheds shown below.
The table and bar graph below make the rank-order and relative magnitude of spending in various watersheds more apparent.
Factors Affecting Watershed Spending
Several factors affect the magnitude of spending in each watershed. They include:
Usually, no one factor accounts for a project’s or an area’s ranking. But multiple factors – working together – can push an area up or down the list.
Certainly, some areas have suffered spending-wise because of political priorities.
Other Highlights
HCFCD spent a total of $1.05 billion through the end of May. That compares to $1.025 billion through the end of April. So HCFCD spent $25 million in May.
Of the $1.05 billion spent to date, bond funds comprised $545 million. Grants comprised $367 million. And $140 came from other local funds.
HCFCD reported a schedule performance index of .97. That means projects are running slightly behind schedule. On-schedule performance would have earned a 1.0.
Overall, HCFCD has completed 21.8% of the bond projects when we’re 37.5% of the way through the 10-year program (45 months out of 120).
For the complete June update on bond spending, click here. Remember to review the last page. It shows capital improvement construction projects throughout the county and the spending drought in the Lake Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 26, 2022
1762 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Slight Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation in Gulf Next Week
A weak surface low pressure system may develop into a tropical system over the northern Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week. The National Hurricane Center estimates the chance of development over the next 5 days at 20%. Chances of formation for another disturbance in the Atlantic remain at 60%.
What’s behind this prediction? A front will push through Houston Monday morning. It will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico early next week and then stall.
AND it will stall over warm waters.
Currently, the sea surface temperature in Galveston is 87 degrees – 4 degrees above the average for this time of year.
The National Hurricane Center said that if the system does develop, “[It] would likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.”
Rainfall Implications
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, “Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal trough.”
This will bring increasing rain chances to Houston. And potentially alter rainfall accumulation forecasts. Depending on location, you could receive anywhere from a half inch to three inches, according to Space City Weather.
The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts the highest 7-day rainfall totals farther to the east. Our neighbors in Louisiana could see up to five inches.
At this time, NWS predicts NO flooding for next week. The drought has soil so dry that most rainfall should soak in. Our channels, creeks and bayous should handle any runoff.
Historical Curiosity
Here’s a historical curiosity. This morning, the NWS Houston/Galveston office noted some weather history on this day. “The first half of 1996 was extremely dry over all of Southeast Texas but heavy rains returned during the last week of June. On June 25th 1996, a swath of 2 to 4 inches of rain fell across the southern half of the region with Danevang recording 6.07 inches of rain and Houston Hobby Airport recording 3.30 inches of rain.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/25/22
1761 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Chances of Formation Increase to 60% for Invest 94L
Overnight, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical cyclone formation for Invest 94L to 60% in the next five days. Yesterday, NHC estimated 20%. “Invest” stands for Area of Investigation.
Reasons for Increased Chance of Formation
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “The tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic is fairly disorganized this morning with scattered areas of deep convection. The wave is moving westward and this motion will continue for the next 5-7 days.”
If you looked only at climate history for this time of year, says Lindner, you would not give this disturbance much of a chance to intensify into a tropical cyclone.
However, low wind shear, modest forward motion, and available moisture in the wave all support some degree of development in the next few days.
Storm Track Forecasts
Most models show development as the wave nears or reaches the eastern Caribbean Islands. European and Global forecast models tightly align with a track through the extreme southern Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, the Canadian model shows the storm tracking farther north at a higher intensity.
Virtually all models indicate similar tracks until the system reaches the central Caribbean Sea.
Lindner believes the southern track is most likely given the time of year. He also sees potential for intensification due to favorable atmospheric conditions along the path. The satellite photo below shows the current extent of the disturbance.
The National Hurricane Center says, “A tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands.”
If you like viewing satellite images and animations from a wide variety of sources, I highly recommend the following sites:
More news to follow.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/24/22
1760 Days since Hurricane Harvey