area of concern

Offshore Area of Concern

At 2pm EDT on 7/11/22, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an update that shows an area of concern offshore that stretches from Galveston Bay to the Florida Panhandle. NHC currently gives it a 30% chance of developing into something more serious in the next five days (10% in two days).

Area of low pressure sitting offshore on Monday afternoon at around 2PM.

Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding Likely East of Houston

This broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. According to NHC, gradual development within this area of concern is possible if it can remain offshore while it meanders near the Gulf coast through the end of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, see local National Weather Service forecasts and/or the Weather Prediction Center.

NWS Weather Prediction Center forecast for Wednesday, 7/13/22.

While the main danger from heavy rains currently lies to the east, global models are not yet unanimous in their forecasts. Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “Global forecast models show some development of this trough into a closed area of low pressure mid- to late-week. Steering currents become very weak late week … with high pressure building into the Plains.” That will cause any tropical system over the northern Gulf to meander. Lindner added that the consensus among forecasters this morning kept any development well east of Houston.

Heat Records Fall Throughout Region

In the meantime, we could use a break from the blistering heat. Numerous records fell over the region yesterday. 

  • College Station: 111 (exceeded July monthly record of 110 set in 1917)
  • BUSH IAH: 105 (exceeded daily record of 101 from 1998)
  • Hobby: 104 (exceeded daily record of 100 from 1964)
  • Galveston: 96 (tied daily record of 96 from 1931)

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/11/2022

1777 Days since Hurricane Harvey