Mythbusters: Common Misperceptions about Flooding in Harris County

Since Hurricane Harvey, I’ve continually run into several widely held misperceptions about flooding in Harris County. As we head into another hurricane season, let’s set the record straight about the most common myths. Some of the facts below have been adapted from information provided by the Harris County Flood Control District.


MYTH: The Harris County Flood Control District is responsible for addressing all types of flooding.

FACT: The Harris County Flood Control District is responsible for bayous and many of their tributaries. However, the City of Houston, other municipalities, and Precincts – in unincorporated Harris County – handle storm sewers and roadside ditches.

street flooding

The Texas Department of Transportation handles drainage of highways and their feeder roads.

The moral of this story: make sure you call the right people when you see a problem developing.


MYTH: I’ve lived in my house for more than 30 years and I’ve never flooded. Therefore, I don’t need flood insurance.

FACT: Most Harris County residents live in homes vulnerable to flooding because:

  • Our topography is flat.
  • Many of us have impermeable clay soils that increase runoff.
  • Our subtropical climate can produce large amounts of rain in short periods of time.

Storm rainfall patterns may have spared your area since you have lived there. But that could change like the weather.

Remember. People thought Tropical Storm Allison was the worst. It caused all the flood maps to be revised. Then along came Harvey. Now, HCFCD and FEMA are revising the flood maps again.

During Harvey, more than 68 percent of the homes that flooded in Harris County were outside the 100-year flood plain. So, consult your insurance agent. Most homeowner insurance policies do not cover flooding. You need a separate policy for that.


MYTH: A 1-percent (100-year) flood occurs only once every 100 years.

FACT: A 1-percent (100-year) flood can occur multiple times throughout a century. A 100-year flood has a 1-percent chance of occurring in any given location in any given year. Doesn’t sound like a lot? Think of it this way: A home in a 1-percent (100-year) floodplain has at least a 26-percent chance of flooding during a 30-year period of time – the duration of many home mortgages. And remember, Harris County experienced four hundred-year events in four years (Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey, and Imelda).


MYTH: I only need to worry about flooding during hurricane season.

FACT: Flooding can happen any time of the year. Of the four storms mentioned above, two occurred outside of hurricane season.

Short, high intensity rainfalls can cause street flooding that invades vehicles and homes built close to street level or near developments with insufficient mitigation.

Hundreds of homes flooded in Elm Grove on May 7, 2019. The causes: 5.64″ of rain in about 12 hours. And a 270-acre tract upstream that had recently been clearcut with only 9% of the promised detention ponds constructed.

high water rescue truck
High water rescue truck on flooded Elm Grove Street, May 2019

MYTH: If I didn’t flood during Allison or Harvey, chances are I won’t ever flood.

FACT: The greatest rainfall brought by Tropical Storm Allison hit the northeast part of Houston and Harris County, dropping more than 28 inches of rain in 12 hours and 35 inches of rain in five days. However, some areas received fewer than 5 inches of rain. Had the damaging rains of Allison targeted other areas, they would have experienced similar, devastating flooding.

Harvey also hit and missed certain areas. But the differences were even more dramatic. While Friendswood received 56″ of rain, Willis in Montgomery County received only 5″ between August 25 through September 1, 2017. See USGS, Table 1, Page 3.


MYTH: I don’t need flood insurance because I don’t live in a mapped floodplain.

FACT: We are all at risk for flooding regardless of our proximity to a mapped floodplain. Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs or floodplain maps) published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency are good indicators of flooding risks from bayous and creeks overflowing their banks. However, they do not show flooding risks from storm sewers and roadside ditches exceeding their capacity, risks from unstudied bayous and creeks, or risks from storms greater than a 0.2 percent (500-year) flood — such as Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 or Hurricane Harvey in 2017.


MYTH: New land development causes flooding.

FACT: New development can accelerate the time of concentration of floodwaters, contributing to faster, higher flood peaks. That’s why cities and counties regulate development. But some see lax regulation and enforcement as a tool to attract new development. And even those with strict regulations may find that they aren’t strict enough to handle storms of increasing intensity.

HCFCD graph showing effect of development in Brays Bayou watershed. Insufficiently mitigated development over 85 years accelerated runoff, building flood peaks faster and higher.

Flooding can be inherited from areas developed before our understanding of flooding improved. So it would be safer to say that “Insufficiently mitigated development causes flooding.”

Regulations dating to the early 1980s in many areas require stormwater runoff after development to be no greater than runoff before development. Developers must detain any excess stormwater on site. However:

  • Development prior to the 1980s was not as regulated.
  • Our understanding of what constitutes a 100-year rainfall continues to evolve. So pre/post estimates may be off.
  • Loopholes exist in many jurisdictions that allow developers to avoid building detention ponds.

Today, we have a hodge-podge of regulations throughout the region. Learn regulations in your area and monitor new developments to ensure compliance.


MYTH: A storm surge from a tropical storm or hurricane will inhibit our bayou system’s ability to drain.

FACT: Most of our bayous and creeks are upland and drain by gravity. Because of their natural slope toward Galveston Bay, a storm surge caused by a tropical storm or a hurricane will not impede this process. Of the roughly 2,500 miles of bayous and creeks in Harris County, only a small portion near Galveston Bay will be influenced by storm surge for a short period of time.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/20/22 with thanks to the Harris County Flood Control District

1756 Days after Hurricane Harvey


HCFCD Recommends More Study for $30 Billion Flood Tunnels

(Update: Since posting this story, HCFCD has provided a link to the entire 1860-page flood tunnel study online.)

On June 16, 2022, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) held a virtual meeting to present the results of Phase 2 of its flood-tunnels study. Phase 2 recommended eight tunnels estimated to cost $30 billion for further study. The purpose of Phase 3: to advance the design far enough to quantify the benefits and validate cost assumptions in order to apply for grants that would help offset costs.

The secondary purpose of the meeting: to gage public support for tunnels, none of which would benefit the Lake Houston Area.

Below, see a brief summary of the one hour and twenty minute meeting.

Watersheds Where Tunnels Being Considered

Phase 2 recommended additional study for tunnels in the following watersheds:

  • Brays Bayou
  • Buffalo Bayou
  • Clear Creek, Berry and Vince Bayous
  • Halls and Hunting Bayous
  • Little Cypress and Cypress Creeks
  • Sims Bayou
  • White Oak Bayou
From Page 34 of presentation delivered by Scott Elmer, Asst. Director of Operations, HCFCD

The conveyance of all eight projects would TOTAL approximately 75,000 cubic feet per second (CFS). To put that in perspective, that’s approximately 4,000 CFS less than the SJRA released from Lake Conroe during Harvey.

Potential Advantages of Tunnel System

Scott Elmer, P.E. CFM and Assistant Director of Operations for HCFCD, gave most of the presentation. A large part of it focused on the benefits of a flood tunnel system. The hour and twenty minute presentation contained more information than the presentation online. So, I will try to fill in some blanks for you.

Mr. Elmer talked extensively about “inherited flooding.” Much of Harris County, he says, developed before we fully understood flood risk and developed regulations to reduce it. For instance, he showed a series of three images around Halls Bayou and I-45.

  • #1 showed rural farmland.
  • #2 showed development starting near the bayou.
  • #3 showed development so dense that it would require buyouts before mitigation by conventional means.

Mr. Elmer then discussed the time, cost, and disruption of buying out enough properties to construct basins and widen channels. I posted about this last year in regard to the detention basins that straddle Halls at US59. Entire subdivisions had to be bought out before construction could begin. Each of those two basins took approximately a decade to finish, with most of the time consumed by buyouts.

Example of Ideal Location

Here’s an example of another location, farther up Halls between I-45 and Airline Drive.

One of the areas of heavy, repetitive flood damage in Harris County. Image from 1978. Area was farmland in the 1950s.

Many homes in this flat area are no more than a foot or two above the bayou banks. Some even sit below street level.

Same area seen in FEMA’s national flood hazard layer viewer. Cross hatch = floodway. Aqua = 100-year floodplain. Brown = 500-year.

The entire area lies within some kind of flood hazard. And keep in mind, that this flood map was developed after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. It does not even represent the risk under Atlas 14, the new flood probabilities developed after Harvey.

Harris County’s Flood Warning System shows Halls has come out of its banks at Airline Drive at least 12 times since 1984. Yet there is very little room to widen the channel or build detention basins.

Best Locations for Tunnels

Tunnels represent an ideal complement to traditional solutions in such cases. They:

  • Expand options for flood damage reduction
  • Make the county’s stormwater network more robust
  • Reduce community disruption and increase resiliency

They make the most sense in areas where:

  • Land for traditional solutions is unavailable
  • Residential property acquisition would disrupt neighborhoods
  • Surface solutions would result in environmental impacts

Elmer presented a hypothetical situation to demonstrate equivalent risk reductions. Thirty-four acres required for tunnel construction could offset 3,145 acres of land needed for channel improvements and stormwater basins.

How Tunnel Locations Chosen

In describing how HCFCD chose the eight watersheds for further study, Elmer focused on:

  • Population density
  • Damage centers with high risk
  • Safety of lives
  • Strategic locations for intakes and outfalls
  • Identifying opportunities to integrate tunnels with other flood damage reduction measures
  • Avoiding geologic and man-made hazards, such as oil and water wells; or geologic faults.
Page 33 of Tunnel Presentation

As for the absence of tunnel recommendations on the eastern side of the county, Elmer simply said, other solutions would be more cost effective. He did not provide additional explanation.

For Elmer’s full presentation, click here.

To see a YouTube Video of this entire presentation including the Q&A that followed, click here. The meat of the presentation starts at about 8 minutes and 30 seconds into the video.

  • Elmer’s presentation lasts a little more than half an hour.
  • A moderator describes the need for public comment before September 30 at 41:26.
  • Q&A begins 42:30.
  • The video ends at 1:18:00.

Items Not Covered

HCFCD gave no specific rationales for:

  • Locations of each of the eight tunnels.
  • Excluding large areas of the county.

I, for one, want to read the entire report before submitting my comments. But HCFCD has not made the report available online.

The presenters did not mention current flood risk in the respective locations. Nor did they say whether their recommendations accounted for recent flood mitigation investments.

Since 2000, the watersheds benefitting from the eight tunnels have already received 64 percent of all flood mitigation investments in Harris County. That includes partner spending. For instance:

  • Brays Bayou has received $575.3 million.
  • White Oak has received $526.3 million.
  • Sims Bayou has received $460 million.
  • Cypress and Little Cypress have received $442.5 million.
  • Greens has received $440 million.
  • Hunting and Halls have received $293.7 million.

Full Study Not Released

Before I vote on flood tunnels for these areas, I want to know how much flood risk remains compared to other areas that received less investment.

However, HCFCD has not yet released a study on the level of service (flood frequency likelihood) for every channel in the county.

The Phase 2 study just completed indicates we could spend $30 billion more on 132 miles of tunnels. That works out to almost a quarter billion dollars per mile.

Before I invest that much, I want to know how engineers arrived at these recommendations. Specifically, how much did politics enter into these decisions? The write up on HCFCD’s tunnel page makes it clear that “equity considerations” including the social vulnerability index weighed heavily.

I also want to know how the Cypress tunnel emptying into the San Jacinto West Fork between US59 and West Lake Houston Parkway would affect flooding in the heavily populated Humble/Kingwood Area.

Public Comment Period Lasts Through September 30

If you wish to submit public comments on the flood tunnels, you have until September 30, 2022. Submit comments at Public Input.com/tunnels. I intend to request the entire engineering study and will post more when I learn how HCFCD made the recommendations.

Posted by Bob Rehak

1755 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Demolition Dates Set for Forest Cove Townhomes

Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has set the demolition dates for two of the three remaining Forest Cove Townhome complexes. The two farthest from the river will be torn down on 7/5/22 and 7/14/22. See image below.

On 6/17/22, HCFCD also deposited the check for the buyout of the last unit in the last complex. So, according to HCFCD spokesperson, Amy Stone, “The final demolition should be scheduled soon!”

Demolition dates for the three remaining Forest Cove Townhome complexes. San Jacinto West Fork at top of frame. Forest Cove Community Center and swimming pool on right.

Reason for Delays

Buying out close to 100 units destroyed by Harvey has been a tortuous and time-consuming process. Several of the owners, unable to live in the townhomes, reportedly walked away from their properties, leaving them in limbo. In the process, they created a blight on the community that became a magnet for drug dealing, illegal dumping, vandalism, arson, and graffiti.

I talked to an angry Forest Cove resident this morning who can’t wait for the last remaining units to be demolished.

Photos Taken on 6/18/22

Here are some photos taken this morning from ground and air showing the condition of the last units still standing.

Two complexes scheduled for demolition on 7/5 and 7/14.
Same complexes from the ground.
Last complex, not yet scheduled for demolition
Same complex from ground level.

Back to Green Space

HCFCD usually lets such buyout areas return to green space and has announced its intention to do the same here. However, it’s not yet clear exactly what that means. Flood Control has not yet responded to a request for specific plans.

Nevertheless, the Houston Parks Board has already begun a trail along the West Fork. It currently reaches from the Kingwood trail system at River Grove Park to Marina Drive in Forest Cove, shown below. It now terminates behind the two complexes already scheduled for demolition in July.

Terminus of Houston Parks Board San Jacinto Greenway at Marina Drive, approximately 2.6 miles from River Grove Park as the crow flies.

The Parks Board has plans to take this trail all the way to US59 eventually.

Planned route of trail connecting Woodland Hills Drive to 59 and Spring Creek Trail. Green = completed. Purple = planned.

Someday soon, this area could become a huge asset to the Kingwood/Forest Cove/Lakewood Cove community again.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/18/22

1754 Days since Hurricane Harvey