As of 7 pm CDT on 8/19/22, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave a tropical disturbance in the Gulf an 80% chance of turning into a named storm today or tomorrow. They call this area of investigation “99L.” Two days ago, the NHC gave this only a 10% chance of developing. But it survived going over the rugged terrain of Central America and is now out over water again where conditions are favorable for development.
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms are getting better organized. Deep thunderstorms have developed near/over this low pressure center.
Satellite photo taken at noon Houston time on 8/18/22.
According to NHC, environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves northwestward across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico as early as today. However, by Saturday night, NHC predicts the system will move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development.
Conditions that support continued development include light wind shear, a large plume of moisture and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Interests along the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rains to southern Texas over the weekend.
More Rain for Houston Expected
In the northern hemisphere, low-pressure systems like this one rotate counterclockwise. So as the system heads toward Brownsville, it will spin moisture up along the Texas Gulf coast. That’s part of the reason why our rain chances for the next few days will remain high.
From Weather Live as of 12:40pm, 8/18/22.
As moisture from 99L spreads northward, it will interact with an incoming frontal boundary from the north and northwest early next week. That will also enhance rainfall chances.
Areas where Precipitable Water in atmosphere exceeds 1.5″. Precipitable waters are defined as the amount of water vapor in a column of air.Source: NWS Storm Prediction Center.
As of 6:34 pm Houston time, NHC has increased the chances of formation to 80% and has started referring to the storm in the Gulf as “potential tropical cyclone #4.” Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon did not find closed circulation. The plane did find an area of 25-30kt winds well to the northeast of the weak wind field near the active thunderstorms. The system is morning NW at around 15mph. Lindner expects the storm to make landfall as a 45 mph tropical storm tomorrow evening near the Rio Grande.
For more information, including the expected arrival time of tropical storm force winds, warning cones, and wind-speed probabilities, click here.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/two_atl_5d0-2.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2022-08-19 13:26:202022-08-19 18:59:39Chances of Tropical Formation for 99L Increase to 80%
Most people think of Kingwood’s East End Park as a place to commune with nature. But it began as a natural, low-cost form of flood mitigation.
When Friendswood was building Kingwood, it toyed with the idea of building homes where the park now stands. Instead, it bequeathed the land to the Kingwood Service Association (KSA). KSA now maintains the property as a nature park for the benefit of all Kingwood residents. Leaving it natural also helps protect people from flooding.
Sometimes the best way to deal with the side effects of development is simply to preserve nature where flooding occurs most frequently. And it certainly occurs frequently along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. In areas like these, parks provide a buffer. And that creates positive value while avoiding negative costs.
How Parks Create Positive Value
The main features offered in the 158-acre East End Park are tranquil, yet breathtaking views provided free of charge by Mother Nature. The park includes forests, wetlands, and natural meadows that provide food and habitat for wildlife. People often see families of deer munching on grass at the edge of the forests. Occasionally, visitors sight eagles, alligators, river otters, foxes, coyotes and bobcats.
KSA East End Park Poster. Photos by Bob Rehak.
Birders also find the park an urban wonderland. Forty-plus acres of tall grass meadows draw approximately 140 species of birds during the spring and fall migrations. Many of those are threatened or endangered. The Lake Houston Area Nature Club hosts birding tours here from September to May. They start at 7:30 AM from the parking lot at the east end of Kingwood Drive and usually last till about 10am.
Another major attraction of the park: spectacular sunrises most mornings.
East End Park at Sunrise by Dr. Charles Campbell.
Dr. Charles Campbell hikes several miles in the park each morning. He took the picture above not far from the main entrance at the east end of Kingwood Drive. He also took the one below at Otter Point.
Sunrise over Lake Houston from Kingwood’s East End Park at Otter Point. By Dr. Charles Campbell.
The park draws an estimated 100,000 visitors per year, but it rarely seems crowded because the visitors disperse among dense forests along 5+ miles of trails throughout the day.
East End Park is an exceptional amenity for Kingwood residents, gifted to all by a visionary developer. Was it totally selfless? Of course not. Nationally, research shows that proximity to parks can increase home values up to 20%. In short, people like parks.
Also Consider Cost Avoidance of Preservation
During Harvey, the entire park went underwater. Most of it also went underwater during the Tax Day, Memorial Day, and Imelda storms. Can you imagine what would have happened had Friendswood built homes here?
There would have been tens of millions of dollars in damages, losses to taxpayer-subsidized flood insurance, disaster relief funds, and the overhead of a bureaucracy to administer aid. Buyouts and demolition would have been required. Flood mitigation in the form of channels and detention basins would have cost tens of millions more. And all the positive values would have been lost.
But by just leaving it natural, we collectively saved all those personal and public expenses. We also created a beautiful “people magnet” that sustains home values instead of undermining them. Trail repair costs after Harvey totaled only $60,000.
That’s less than the cost to repair one average home flooded to a depth of a foot or more. And that’s the value of preservation – the natural, low-cost form of flood mitigation.
Sometimes we need to learn to just let nature be.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/18/22 with thanks to Dr. Charles Campbell
1815 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Campbell-East-End-Park-Sunrise.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=16751200adminadmin2022-08-18 12:02:092022-08-18 14:41:05Preservation: A Natural, Low-Cost Form of Flood Mitigation
By this weekend, the second tropical wave in two weeks will make its way into the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean. They predict it will track northwest across Central America and the Yucatan. Then it should emerge into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
It’s too early to tell the exact track, timing or degree of development. That depends on many factors such as steering currents and frontal boundaries. But as of 7am Houston time on 8/16/22, NHC gives the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a named storm within 5 days.
NHC says an area of low pressure could form on Friday. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
15:20 Zulu time is 10:20 Houston time. Note the cloud formation in lower left over Nicaragua and Honduras.
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner says conditions will become increasing favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche (the area with the yellow circle). He points to a frontal boundary dropping south toward the Texas coast late this week and says areas south of that boundary will become increasingly favorable for a low pressure system to develop along the axis of the tropical wave.
Weather Service Storm Prediction Center 3-Day Outlook shows front moving across southern plains on Friday.
Chances of Tropical Formation for 99L Increase to 80%
As of 7 pm CDT on 8/19/22, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave a tropical disturbance in the Gulf an 80% chance of turning into a named storm today or tomorrow. They call this area of investigation “99L.” Two days ago, the NHC gave this only a 10% chance of developing. But it survived going over the rugged terrain of Central America and is now out over water again where conditions are favorable for development.
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms are getting better organized. Deep thunderstorms have developed near/over this low pressure center.
According to NHC, environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves northwestward across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico as early as today. However, by Saturday night, NHC predicts the system will move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development.
Interests along the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rains to southern Texas over the weekend.
More Rain for Houston Expected
In the northern hemisphere, low-pressure systems like this one rotate counterclockwise. So as the system heads toward Brownsville, it will spin moisture up along the Texas Gulf coast. That’s part of the reason why our rain chances for the next few days will remain high.
As moisture from 99L spreads northward, it will interact with an incoming frontal boundary from the north and northwest early next week. That will also enhance rainfall chances.
The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center calls for another 4-5 inches of rain during the next 7 days.
Evening Update
As of 6:34 pm Houston time, NHC has increased the chances of formation to 80% and has started referring to the storm in the Gulf as “potential tropical cyclone #4.” Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon did not find closed circulation. The plane did find an area of 25-30kt winds well to the northeast of the weak wind field near the active thunderstorms. The system is morning NW at around 15mph. Lindner expects the storm to make landfall as a 45 mph tropical storm tomorrow evening near the Rio Grande.
For more information, including the expected arrival time of tropical storm force winds, warning cones, and wind-speed probabilities, click here.
Conditions are changing rapidly. For the latest updates, monitor the National Hurricane Center website. During hurricane season, I bookmark this page and have it readily available on my phone.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/18/2022
1816 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Preservation: A Natural, Low-Cost Form of Flood Mitigation
Most people think of Kingwood’s East End Park as a place to commune with nature. But it began as a natural, low-cost form of flood mitigation.
When Friendswood was building Kingwood, it toyed with the idea of building homes where the park now stands. Instead, it bequeathed the land to the Kingwood Service Association (KSA). KSA now maintains the property as a nature park for the benefit of all Kingwood residents. Leaving it natural also helps protect people from flooding.
Sometimes the best way to deal with the side effects of development is simply to preserve nature where flooding occurs most frequently. And it certainly occurs frequently along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. In areas like these, parks provide a buffer. And that creates positive value while avoiding negative costs.
How Parks Create Positive Value
The main features offered in the 158-acre East End Park are tranquil, yet breathtaking views provided free of charge by Mother Nature. The park includes forests, wetlands, and natural meadows that provide food and habitat for wildlife. People often see families of deer munching on grass at the edge of the forests. Occasionally, visitors sight eagles, alligators, river otters, foxes, coyotes and bobcats.
Birders also find the park an urban wonderland. Forty-plus acres of tall grass meadows draw approximately 140 species of birds during the spring and fall migrations. Many of those are threatened or endangered. The Lake Houston Area Nature Club hosts birding tours here from September to May. They start at 7:30 AM from the parking lot at the east end of Kingwood Drive and usually last till about 10am.
Another major attraction of the park: spectacular sunrises most mornings.
Dr. Charles Campbell hikes several miles in the park each morning. He took the picture above not far from the main entrance at the east end of Kingwood Drive. He also took the one below at Otter Point.
The park draws an estimated 100,000 visitors per year, but it rarely seems crowded because the visitors disperse among dense forests along 5+ miles of trails throughout the day.
East End Park is an exceptional amenity for Kingwood residents, gifted to all by a visionary developer. Was it totally selfless? Of course not. Nationally, research shows that proximity to parks can increase home values up to 20%. In short, people like parks.
Also Consider Cost Avoidance of Preservation
During Harvey, the entire park went underwater. Most of it also went underwater during the Tax Day, Memorial Day, and Imelda storms. Can you imagine what would have happened had Friendswood built homes here?
There would have been tens of millions of dollars in damages, losses to taxpayer-subsidized flood insurance, disaster relief funds, and the overhead of a bureaucracy to administer aid. Buyouts and demolition would have been required. Flood mitigation in the form of channels and detention basins would have cost tens of millions more. And all the positive values would have been lost.
But by just leaving it natural, we collectively saved all those personal and public expenses. We also created a beautiful “people magnet” that sustains home values instead of undermining them. Trail repair costs after Harvey totaled only $60,000.
That’s less than the cost to repair one average home flooded to a depth of a foot or more. And that’s the value of preservation – the natural, low-cost form of flood mitigation.
Sometimes we need to learn to just let nature be.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/18/22 with thanks to Dr. Charles Campbell
1815 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Another Tropical Wave Headed Toward Gulf
By this weekend, the second tropical wave in two weeks will make its way into the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean. They predict it will track northwest across Central America and the Yucatan. Then it should emerge into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
It’s too early to tell the exact track, timing or degree of development. That depends on many factors such as steering currents and frontal boundaries. But as of 7am Houston time on 8/16/22, NHC gives the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a named storm within 5 days.
NHC says an area of low pressure could form on Friday. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner says conditions will become increasing favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche (the area with the yellow circle). He points to a frontal boundary dropping south toward the Texas coast late this week and says areas south of that boundary will become increasingly favorable for a low pressure system to develop along the axis of the tropical wave.
However, there’s no reason to panic now. Just watch the National Hurricane Center website closely over the next several days for any changes.
Almost exactly 5 years ago, a storm followed a similar track across the Yucatan. It eventually became known as Hurricane Harvey.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/16/2022
1813 Days since Hurricane Harvey