Last week, I posted about the possibility of heavy rain early this week. Last night, Dallas experienced torrential rains and they’re headed this way. One amateur weather gage on Londonderry Lane reported more than 14″ of rain! Dallas/Fort Worth officially received 9.46 inches of rainfall in 6 hours and 7.8 inches in 3-hours. Significant flash flooding has resulted. A 1-hour storm total of 3.01 inches was recorded at DFW with a storm total of 6.54 inches. That wiped out 67% of the area’s 2022 rainfall deficit in a few hours.
National Weather Service map as of 12:41 pm Houston time. Purple boxes represent flash flood warnings. Bright green = Flood warnings. Dark green = flood watch.
Threat Will Increase From North to South During Next 24 Hours
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the frontal boundary over north Texas will slowly move southward today and approach the northern portions of southeast Texas by mid- to late afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary along with scattered showers developing northward along the seabreeze and Gulf inflow.
The air mass will become extremely moist and unstable. When combined with slow moving/stalled boundaries, excessive rainfall can result. Lindner says areas north of HWY 105 have the first potential for heavy rainfall in early afternoon. Then the front will slowly sink southward toward I-10 tonight into early Tuesday. Expect slow storm motions, cell training, and back-building of cells to the west and northwest. Everything points to heavy rainfall.
While grounds are dry, the local air mass will be capable of some impressive short duration rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches in an hour.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
This was clearly seen overnight in north Texas. The local air mass will not be much different over southeast Texas. Especially N of I-10. These rainfall rates can lead to rapid flash flooding especially in urban areas.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected over much of southeast Texas through mid week. But Lindner also expects isolated higher totals of 6+ inches. And where these higher totals occur, flash flooding will be possible, he says.
Confidence in rainfall is high. But confidence in rainfall amounts and location of the heaviest rainfall is low.
Street flooding will be the primary threat with the heavy rainfall rates. Rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible if some of the heavier storms train or move slowly over any watershed.
Overall, this wet pattern will linger into late week. But a slightly drier air mass will eventually push through and we should transition back toward a more “normal” cycle of showers and thunderstorms driven mostly by the seabreeze front.
See the National Weather Services predictions below.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/22 based on information from HCFCD and NWS
In the Tuesday 8/23/22 Harris County Commissioners Court Meeting, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) will deliver the results of a study on the Greens Bayou mid-reach area. The study shows that when the Aldine-Westfield Phase 2 and Lauder Phase 2 Basins are complete, the area will be protected from a 10-year flood (10% annual chance). But the study doesn’t stop there. It also recommends building another large detention basin and increasing channel conveyance to protect the area in a 25-year flood (4% annual chance).
10-Year Protection Achieved
Back in 2003, HCFCD started working on a plan to bring much needed flood reduction to the area between Veterans Memorial and JFK along Greens. That stretch covers 11 miles of Harris County Precincts 1 and 2.
Locations of improvements along Greens Bayou.Red is proposed.
Also since 2003, NOAA has developed new Atlas-14 rainfall probability estimates.
Atlas 14 rainfall probabilities for northern Harris County
The new estimates show that northern Harris County could experience 30-40% more rain than previously estimated in major events. With both rainfall and detention basin capacity increasing, the question became, “Where do things stand?”
This new engineering study shows that the four existing detention basins (Kuykendahl, Glen Forest, Aldine-Westfield and Lauder) should protect homes and businesses in a 10-year flood. But achieving greater protection will require something more.
Four Alternatives to Increase Capacity
Engineers looked at four different alternative combinations of stormwater detention capacity and/or channel conveyance improvements to provide more protection. Each alternative involved the proposed Hardy Stormwater Detention Basin shown in red on the map above.
Alternative 1 – Building a 3,000 acre-foot basin
Alternative 2 – Smaller 2,000 acre-foot basin with more room for recreation
Alternative 3 – Same as #2 but also with channel conveyance improvements
Alternative 4 – Only conveyance improvements; no additional storage capacity
Alternative 5 – Build nothing else. Stop with existing basins.
The engineers recommended Alternative #3 – given sufficient funding. It would achieve a 25-year system capacity in general. The area immediately downstream of I-45 would achieve closer to a 10-year system capacity. And the area immediately downstream of the Hardy Tollroad would be closer to a 50-year capacity.
The proposed and existing improvements would create enough storage to hold a foot of rain falling across 16.4 square miles!
Cost: A mere $196 million on top of the $126 million already invested in the other four basins. Compared to Alternative 5, #3 would protect another 25 structures in a 10-year flood, 173 in a 50-year, and 239 in a 100-year. HCFCD did not list a number for a 25-year event. But we can assume it’s somewhere south of 173.
Phase 1: 3.6 miles of channel conveyance improvements
Phase 2: 3.5 miles of channel conveyance improvements and 500 acre-feet of stormwater detention
Phase 3: 3.5 miles of channel conveyance improvements and 500 acre-feet of stormwater detention
Phase 4: Final 1,000 acre-feet of stormwater detention
The slide below shows how much the existing and new improvements would shrink the 25-year floodplain. Mentally subtract the purple areas to see before and after.
Purple represents the extent of the floodplain without improvements. Blue shows the extent with improvements.
Three bonds that amount to a $1.2 billion mystery tax will go on the November ballot in Harris County. In a special Harris County Commissioner’s Court meeting on Thursday 8/18/22, three Democrats voted for the bonds in another carefully orchestrated meeting. They did not:
Make the bond language public before (or after) the meeting.
Release even a partial list of projects that the money will go towards.
Address how the bond will be promoted or who will promote it.
Discuss the lopsided distribution of funds ($160 million more for each Democratic precinct).
Define how phrases such as, “worst first” will be defined.
Allow Republican commissioners to ask questions.
Explain why they wanted another bond when approximately half a billion dollars remains from the last one in 2015.
Aside from three-high level categories of spending (public safety, roads and parks), nothing in the bonds says exactly how or where the money will be spent.
Debate Cut Off with Questions Unanswered
After Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia made three motions to approve three separate bonds, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis seconded them. County Judge Lina Hidalgo extolled their benefits and called members of the public who spoke against the bonds liars.
In a carefully stage-managed meeting, Hidalgo insisted the bonds would not raise taxes, but once again blurred the distinction between tax rates and tax bills. Budget Manager Daniel Ramos repeatedly said property valuations were going up. However…
Neither Hidalgo, nor Ramos discussed the combined impact of the rate multiplied by much higher property valuations over 25 years.
Hidalgo has consistently avoided that discussion.
Despite attempts by Republican Commissioners Tom Ramsey and Jack Cagle to ask questions, the Democrats used their majority to invoke a parliamentary procedure known as “calling the question.” Calling the question stops debate (which never started in this case) and calls for an immediate vote on a proposal. The three Democrats voted YES to call the question. The two Republicans voted NO.
Hidalgo then called an immediate vote on the three bond proposals. Each passed 3-2. Hidalgo adjourned the meeting.
Video of Politics at Its Most Brutal
This meeting was a microwave version of most court meetings in the last four years. If you want to get a good feeling for Harris County politics before you vote, I highly recommend watching it. The last public speaker ends at 36:28 and approval of the bond begins. You can view the entire video here. It only lasts another 15-20 minutes.
But first, you may want to watch this 20-second clip posted on YouTube in which Hidalgo brands members of the public who spoke against the bond as liars.
Video clip showing start of discussion after public comments. Compare audio with official transcript below.
In the official transcript, someone redacted the lying comment.
8/20/22screen capture of official transcript. Red type added to indicate text and location of omission.
When Cagle tried to raise these issues, Garcia and Hidalgo cut him off. The three called the question, voted and left the room.
The next meeting of commissioners court will vote on two proposals to promote the bond which have not gone through a competitive bidding process. See items 427 and 428. Sorry, there’s no backup on those either. So much for transparency!
No one except Garcia, Ellis and Hidalgo know why we need the bonds, where the money will go, or who will get the benefit. That’s why I call this bond a mystery tax.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/22
1817 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/20220820-Screen-Shot-2022-08-20-at-5.30.01-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C617&ssl=16171200adminadmin2022-08-20 18:20:222022-08-20 19:48:42Garcia’s $1.2 Billion Mystery Tax Going on November 8th Ballot
Heavy Rainfall Threat Approaching
Last week, I posted about the possibility of heavy rain early this week. Last night, Dallas experienced torrential rains and they’re headed this way. One amateur weather gage on Londonderry Lane reported more than 14″ of rain! Dallas/Fort Worth officially received 9.46 inches of rainfall in 6 hours and 7.8 inches in 3-hours. Significant flash flooding has resulted. A 1-hour storm total of 3.01 inches was recorded at DFW with a storm total of 6.54 inches. That wiped out 67% of the area’s 2022 rainfall deficit in a few hours.
Threat Will Increase From North to South During Next 24 Hours
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the frontal boundary over north Texas will slowly move southward today and approach the northern portions of southeast Texas by mid- to late afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary along with scattered showers developing northward along the seabreeze and Gulf inflow.
The air mass will become extremely moist and unstable. When combined with slow moving/stalled boundaries, excessive rainfall can result. Lindner says areas north of HWY 105 have the first potential for heavy rainfall in early afternoon. Then the front will slowly sink southward toward I-10 tonight into early Tuesday. Expect slow storm motions, cell training, and back-building of cells to the west and northwest. Everything points to heavy rainfall.
This was clearly seen overnight in north Texas. The local air mass will not be much different over southeast Texas. Especially N of I-10. These rainfall rates can lead to rapid flash flooding especially in urban areas.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected over much of southeast Texas through mid week. But Lindner also expects isolated higher totals of 6+ inches. And where these higher totals occur, flash flooding will be possible, he says.
Confidence in rainfall is high. But confidence in rainfall amounts and location of the heaviest rainfall is low.
Street flooding will be the primary threat with the heavy rainfall rates. Rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible if some of the heavier storms train or move slowly over any watershed.
Overall, this wet pattern will linger into late week. But a slightly drier air mass will eventually push through and we should transition back toward a more “normal” cycle of showers and thunderstorms driven mostly by the seabreeze front.
See the National Weather Services predictions below.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/22 based on information from HCFCD and NWS
1819 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Greens Bayou Mid-Reach Segment Reaches 10-Year Level-of-Service Goal. Now What?
In the Tuesday 8/23/22 Harris County Commissioners Court Meeting, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) will deliver the results of a study on the Greens Bayou mid-reach area. The study shows that when the Aldine-Westfield Phase 2 and Lauder Phase 2 Basins are complete, the area will be protected from a 10-year flood (10% annual chance). But the study doesn’t stop there. It also recommends building another large detention basin and increasing channel conveyance to protect the area in a 25-year flood (4% annual chance).
10-Year Protection Achieved
Back in 2003, HCFCD started working on a plan to bring much needed flood reduction to the area between Veterans Memorial and JFK along Greens. That stretch covers 11 miles of Harris County Precincts 1 and 2.
Since then, four stormwater detention basins have been built along the bayou.
Also since 2003, NOAA has developed new Atlas-14 rainfall probability estimates.
The new estimates show that northern Harris County could experience 30-40% more rain than previously estimated in major events. With both rainfall and detention basin capacity increasing, the question became, “Where do things stand?”
This new engineering study shows that the four existing detention basins (Kuykendahl, Glen Forest, Aldine-Westfield and Lauder) should protect homes and businesses in a 10-year flood. But achieving greater protection will require something more.
Four Alternatives to Increase Capacity
Engineers looked at four different alternative combinations of stormwater detention capacity and/or channel conveyance improvements to provide more protection. Each alternative involved the proposed Hardy Stormwater Detention Basin shown in red on the map above.
The chart below summarizes what they found.
The engineers recommended Alternative #3 – given sufficient funding. It would achieve a 25-year system capacity in general. The area immediately downstream of I-45 would achieve closer to a 10-year system capacity. And the area immediately downstream of the Hardy Tollroad would be closer to a 50-year capacity.
The proposed and existing improvements would create enough storage to hold a foot of rain falling across 16.4 square miles!
Cost: A mere $196 million on top of the $126 million already invested in the other four basins. Compared to Alternative 5, #3 would protect another 25 structures in a 10-year flood, 173 in a 50-year, and 239 in a 100-year. HCFCD did not list a number for a 25-year event. But we can assume it’s somewhere south of 173.
This HCFCD presentation recommends a phased approach to implementation to accommodate annual funding levels.
The slide below shows how much the existing and new improvements would shrink the 25-year floodplain. Mentally subtract the purple areas to see before and after.
For the full presentation, click here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/2022 based on material from HCFCD
1818 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Garcia’s $1.2 Billion Mystery Tax Going on November 8th Ballot
Three bonds that amount to a $1.2 billion mystery tax will go on the November ballot in Harris County. In a special Harris County Commissioner’s Court meeting on Thursday 8/18/22, three Democrats voted for the bonds in another carefully orchestrated meeting. They did not:
Aside from three-high level categories of spending (public safety, roads and parks), nothing in the bonds says exactly how or where the money will be spent.
Debate Cut Off with Questions Unanswered
After Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia made three motions to approve three separate bonds, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis seconded them. County Judge Lina Hidalgo extolled their benefits and called members of the public who spoke against the bonds liars.
In a carefully stage-managed meeting, Hidalgo insisted the bonds would not raise taxes, but once again blurred the distinction between tax rates and tax bills. Budget Manager Daniel Ramos repeatedly said property valuations were going up. However…
Hidalgo has consistently avoided that discussion.
Despite attempts by Republican Commissioners Tom Ramsey and Jack Cagle to ask questions, the Democrats used their majority to invoke a parliamentary procedure known as “calling the question.” Calling the question stops debate (which never started in this case) and calls for an immediate vote on a proposal. The three Democrats voted YES to call the question. The two Republicans voted NO.
Hidalgo then called an immediate vote on the three bond proposals. Each passed 3-2. Hidalgo adjourned the meeting.
Video of Politics at Its Most Brutal
This meeting was a microwave version of most court meetings in the last four years. If you want to get a good feeling for Harris County politics before you vote, I highly recommend watching it. The last public speaker ends at 36:28 and approval of the bond begins. You can view the entire video here. It only lasts another 15-20 minutes.
But first, you may want to watch this 20-second clip posted on YouTube in which Hidalgo brands members of the public who spoke against the bond as liars.
In the official transcript, someone redacted the lying comment.
Accidental or intentional? You be the judge.
Bond Language Concealed from Public Beforehand
While you are at it, click on the meeting’s agenda and see if you can find the bond language they “voted” on.
Clicking on Legislation Details brought up this page.
Clicking on “Legislative Details with Text” brought up these pages, which contained only a high-level summary of the bonds.
Omissions Open Door to Redirection of Funds
I had to specifically request the bond language from Commissioner Ramsey’s office. You can review the entire bond text here. Two omissions jumped out at me.
In 2019, Garcia, Ellis and Hidalgo cried “worst first” to justify their prioritization of flood-bond projects. After passage of the bond, they defined “worst” as watersheds with high percentages of Low-to-Moderate Income Residents, regardless of how badly those watersheds flooded. Those watersheds have received more than a billion dollars to date while areas that received 20+ feet of water above flood stage have received virtually nothing from the bond.
The bond language also makes no mention of at least $220 million going to each precinct, a concession approved in the previous meeting which Hidalgo repeatedly referenced.
When Cagle tried to raise these issues, Garcia and Hidalgo cut him off. The three called the question, voted and left the room.
The next meeting of commissioners court will vote on two proposals to promote the bond which have not gone through a competitive bidding process. See items 427 and 428. Sorry, there’s no backup on those either. So much for transparency!
No one except Garcia, Ellis and Hidalgo know why we need the bonds, where the money will go, or who will get the benefit. That’s why I call this bond a mystery tax.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/22
1817 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.