Looking back at 2023, we got lucky. A lack of extreme rainfall masked a slowdown of flood-mitigation spending and massive clearcutting of wetlands and floodplains. Had we been hit by a hurricane instead of a drought, who knows what would have happened.
Have we lost our sense of urgency about flood mitigation? Did the drought lull us into complacency? If so, will that contribute to future flooding? Let’s look more closely at what did and didn’t happen in 2023.
No Widespread Flooding or Flood Damage
To my knowledge, no floods caused widespread damage in the Houston area this year. That’s a tribute to three things: past flood-mitigation efforts, drought, and the absence of tropical activity.
At the end of the third quarter, HCFCD and its partners had spent almost $3.8 billion on flood mitigation since 2000 and $1.8 billion since Harvey. That has helped reduce the risk of flooding – especially in lower-income watersheds that frequently flooded. That’s where most of flood-mitigation money has been concentrated.
But flood-mitigation spending alone didn’t account for the absence of wide scale flooding in the Houston area in 2023. Mother Nature “helped,” if you can call a drought helpful.
Much of the Houston region suffered through moderate to severe drought for most of 2023. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of Harris County is still rated “abnormally dry.” And most surrounding counties are still in moderate drought.
How much rain did we get? Through December 29, we received 41.75 inches – 10 inches below our normal 51.73 inches. So, despite recent rains, we received 20% less than normal for the year.
Drier-than-normal weather for most of the year created ideal conditions for construction of flood-mitigation projects. However, flood-mitigation spending fell to about half its peak during 2020.
Source: HCFCD Data from FOIA Requestthrough 3Q2023 with fourth quarter estimated.
Harris County Flood Control District provided no official explanation for the slowdown. However, various people familiar with HCFCD operations have cited:
In the meantime, 15-20% inflation in construction costs could force HCFCD to eliminate $1 billion worth of projects from the original bond list. And projects at the end of the equity priority list in affluent areas are the most likely to get the axe. HCFCD is re-evaluating them all.
Every day no work is being done is a day wasted. And a day that people have to live with higher flood risk.
Relentless Development in Floodplains and Wetlands
Meanwhile, the clearing of land in the upper San Jacinto River Basin has not slowed. Developers cleared thousands of acres in 2023.
We saw how dangerous that could be after Perry Homes cleared 268 acres in Woodridge Village without building sufficient stormwater detention capabilities. Areas downstream in Kingwood’s Elm Grove Village that didn’t flood after 50 inches of rain from Harvey in 2017 flooded after a 5-inch rain on May 7, 2019.
The giant Colony Ridge development in Liberty County virtually doubled in size during the last two years. By the end of 2023, it was at least 50% bigger than Manhattan. The developers:
I took the following six shots over Colony Ridge in 2023. They show small portions of the developer’s clearing activity, but represent hundreds of other shots too numerous to include here.
Some call this progress. But Colony Ridge is now the subject of a Federal lawsuit by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Other Developments Leave Land Exposed to Erosion
Colony Ridge isn’t the only development in the Lake Houston Area that leaves land exposed to erosion. Here are several others.
Los Pinos photographed in March 2023.First part of a planned 4,000 acre development.Royal Pines in Porter on White Oak Creek flooded neighbors four times in two months.Northpark South at McClellan Sorters Road (bottom L to R) at Northpark Drive (Center) was under 8 feet of water during Harvey. It contained wetlandsand will drain through sand mines to the San Jacinto West Fork in the background.
Mavera at FM1314 and SH242 will eliminate wetlands but claims it will have no adverse impact. Photographed Jan. 2022.Evergreen near SH242 and FM1314.
I could cite dozens of additional examples like these. When rains wash through these sites, they pick up sediment and carry it downstream.
Sediment Deposition
Eroded sediment from these clearing operations washes downstream. It drops out of suspension where the water slows as it reaches Lake Houston.
Where Spring Creek (left) joins San Jacinto West Fork (right) at the Harris Montgomery County line. Photographed from over I-69 looking west.
The result: sand bars that reduce the conveyance of the river, forcing water out of the banks and into people’s homes.
Sand bar on West Fork of the San Jacinto at Lake Houston after Harvey reduced river’s conveyance. Army Corps dredged the blockage after thousands of homes and businesses flooded upstreamduring Harvey.
Good News, Bad News
The good news: many blockages like the one above have been removed through dredging by the Army Corps and City.
The bad news: Many boaters have written in the last few months, complaining about how shallow the rivers are once again becoming due to unchecked sedimentation.
While I am ecstatic about another year without a flood, I hope we do not become complacent about preventing activities that contribute to flooding.
We need to establish and enforce best management practices that reduce sedimentation that clogs our rivers.
Flood Gate Project Goes Into 2024 with Momentum
So as not to finish the year on a down note, I would like to mention the project to add more flood gates to the Lake Houston dam.
In 2023, Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin and Chief Recover Officer Stephen Costello accomplished an extraordinary “lift.” They convinced FEMA to include social benefits in their Benefit/Cost Ratio calculation. This helped them achieve a benefit/cost ratio greater than one, meaning benefits exceeded costs for the gates.
Then, they rallied local, state, and federal officials to fund the project so it could move forward. While $20 million of the $170+ million for the project comes from the 2018 flood bond, it will be hard for certain Harris County Commissioners to block it now that everyone else has done their parts.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/20231111-DJI_0872-copy.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-12-31 12:25:132025-08-19 22:07:53Year in Review: Looking Back at 2023
Reduce future flood losses compared to maintaining the status quo
Improve transparency around the potential impacts of climate change and proposed development
SFHA and FPA Definition Recommendations
FEMA currently defines a Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) as land “subject to a 1 percent or greater chance of flooding in any given year.” The SFHA may contain several different zones that show different degrees of risk. Historically, FEMA has equated the SFHA with “floodplain” or “flood-prone area” (FPA).
TMAC recommends redefining these terms to give them different meanings. TMAC also recommends using a higher standard of accuracy (95% confidence level as opposed to 50%), but more on that later.
If FEMA adopts the recommendations, the term “Special Flood Hazard Area” would apply to areas that currently require flood insurance for mortgages made by federally regulated lending institutions.
The term Flood-Prone Area, on the other hand, they argue, should be reserved to reflect future risks from climate change and development. See below.
Why separate the two? Lenders would face resistance to enforcement of the insurance-purchase mandate if it meant requiring flood insurance on homes or businesses not yet in the 1-percent-annual-chance floodplain.
But having a separate, second definition that reflects future risk could help floodplain managers lower the probability of future flooding for homes under construction by applying to building codes, elevation requirements, and more. It could also give home buyers additional information on which to base their decisions.
Recommendation for Higher Confidence Limits
Because of a perceived rise in flood occurrences on properties lying outside the SFHA, the lending community has become more suspicious of the standard’s accuracy. People see the SFHA’s flood insurance requirement as a binary choice. “I need it or I don’t.”
But the current definition is based on the AVERAGE chance of flooding. That means 50% of properties would have a higher risk than indicated and the rest would have a lower chance.
After a flood, surprised borrowers sometimes blame their mortgage companies. “How come you didn’t tell me I was at risk?” Many buyers conclude they are safe based on a misunderstanding of technical details related to the 1% annual-chance standard.
The new standard proposes a 95% confidence interval as opposed to an average risk. That would include homes expected to flood in all but 5% of floods. A confidence interval in statistics is another way to describe probabilities.
TMAC argues that an easily understood and interpreted standard would balance safe land use with economic benefit. It would also protect lenders, educate buyers, and encourage borrowers to act responsibly.
Redefining Flood-Prone Areas
The illustration below depicts TMAC’s concept for developing the FPA elevation and associated boundary. It includes an extra safety margin for climate change and future development.
This “freeboard factor” would be a proxy for estimated future conditions.
However, TMAC recognizes there may not be:
• Adequate land-use information to determine the impact of future development or • Planned development expected to change flood conditions or • Sufficient information to determine the impacts of climate change.
0.2% Annual Chance Flood Recommendations
For consistency and ease of communication/education, TMAC recommends applying the 95% confidence limit to .02% annual chance floods also. These were previously known as 500-year floods.
Fill Recommendations
Bringing fill dirt into a floodplain to elevate homes reduces the amount of storage capacity for floodwaters. Fill can also often increase hazards to nearby property owners and have negative environmental impacts.
Currently, a maze of regulations governs the use of fill. TMAC recommends consolidating and clarifying all fill requirements in flood-prone areas.
Among the recommendations: Prohibiting fill as a floodproofing technique.
Notice of Fill Impacts
TMAC recommends that FEMA should require participating communities, as part of permitting duties, to quantify and put on file the impacts of proposed fill and other development on flood height and the environment prior to issuing fill permits.
When increases in flood elevation or potential negative environmental consequences are found and cannot be mitigated, at a minimum, property owners and appropriate environmental agencies should be notified prior to issuing permits.
Many such requirements already exist for floodways. This recommendation would expand the requirement to floodplains.
The TMAC report observes that large amounts of fill placed in the flood fringe can potentially create significant impacts upstream, downstream or both. But there are no impact notification requirements in many communities and states.
“This is in effect a risk transfer to uninformed landowners and environmental stewardship organizations,” says the report.
“While a requirement to notify falls short of a requirement of consent, it is an improvement over today’s framing where risks are allowed to be transferred to others without their awareness.”
TMAC
Status of Adoption Unclear at this Point
Due to the holidays, I’ve had trouble determining where FEMA stands in adopting these recommendations. TMAC clearly labels these “interim recommendations.”
The problem with proposed changes to regulations is that they create winners and losers. People with risky land to sell may not want fuller disclosure. On the other hand, those in danger of flooding may want more information.
Despite occasional hurricanes and biblical rainfalls, there’s no place I’d rather live than the Lake Houston Area. Where else can you find all the amenities of Houston next to so much nature? Below are some of my favorite photos taken here over the years.
Fawn born on lawn outside my officeGreat egret returning to nestThe 5,000 acre Lake Houston Wilderness ParkHawk feeding outside my office.Painted bunting outside my office Roseate Spoonbill, East End Park, KingwoodAlligator at River Grove Park in KingwoodDuck at Cedar Landing in HuffmanGreat egret in breeding plumageRoseate spoonbillsDucks at Cedar Landing in HuffmanSnow geese taking wing over lake during fall migrationWest Fork San Jacinto at River Grove Park, looking east toward Lake Houston
And then there are the spectacular sunrises and sunsets. Dr. Charles Campbell, who specializes in functional medicine, took the two photos below. And good medicine they are!
Sunrise over the East Fork San Jacinto RiverSunset over Kingwood Lakes
I hope you find these images as restful and as spiritually rejuvenating as I do.
This area is worth preserving and protecting. Where else can you live next to beauty like this – inside the city limits of one of America’s largest cities?
Peace to all. And happy holidays.
Posted by Bob Rehak on December 22, 2023
2306 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/20050601-DSC_0004.JPG.jpg?fit=1100%2C731&ssl=17311100adminadmin2023-12-22 16:26:132023-12-23 08:49:06Happy Holidays from the Lake Houston Area
Year in Review: Looking Back at 2023
Looking back at 2023, we got lucky. A lack of extreme rainfall masked a slowdown of flood-mitigation spending and massive clearcutting of wetlands and floodplains. Had we been hit by a hurricane instead of a drought, who knows what would have happened.
Have we lost our sense of urgency about flood mitigation? Did the drought lull us into complacency? If so, will that contribute to future flooding? Let’s look more closely at what did and didn’t happen in 2023.
No Widespread Flooding or Flood Damage
To my knowledge, no floods caused widespread damage in the Houston area this year. That’s a tribute to three things: past flood-mitigation efforts, drought, and the absence of tropical activity.
At the end of the third quarter, HCFCD and its partners had spent almost $3.8 billion on flood mitigation since 2000 and $1.8 billion since Harvey. That has helped reduce the risk of flooding – especially in lower-income watersheds that frequently flooded. That’s where most of flood-mitigation money has been concentrated.
But flood-mitigation spending alone didn’t account for the absence of wide scale flooding in the Houston area in 2023. Mother Nature “helped,” if you can call a drought helpful.
Much of the Houston region suffered through moderate to severe drought for most of 2023. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of Harris County is still rated “abnormally dry.” And most surrounding counties are still in moderate drought.
How much rain did we get? Through December 29, we received 41.75 inches – 10 inches below our normal 51.73 inches. So, despite recent rains, we received 20% less than normal for the year.
Finally, no tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall in the Houston Area this year. Despite an above-normal tropical season, the return of El Niño, and warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf, Mother Nature steered tropical activity away from Houston.
Slowdown in Flood-Mitigation Spending
Drier-than-normal weather for most of the year created ideal conditions for construction of flood-mitigation projects. However, flood-mitigation spending fell to about half its peak during 2020.
Harris County Flood Control District provided no official explanation for the slowdown. However, various people familiar with HCFCD operations have cited:
Availability of cash is not the problem. HCFCD received:
That brought the total contributions by partners up to another $2.5 billion. Yet HCFCD has spent only about a third of that money – $1.8 billion out of $5 billion total.
Projects at Risk
In the meantime, 15-20% inflation in construction costs could force HCFCD to eliminate $1 billion worth of projects from the original bond list. And projects at the end of the equity priority list in affluent areas are the most likely to get the axe. HCFCD is re-evaluating them all.
Every day no work is being done is a day wasted. And a day that people have to live with higher flood risk.
Relentless Development in Floodplains and Wetlands
Meanwhile, the clearing of land in the upper San Jacinto River Basin has not slowed. Developers cleared thousands of acres in 2023.
We saw how dangerous that could be after Perry Homes cleared 268 acres in Woodridge Village without building sufficient stormwater detention capabilities. Areas downstream in Kingwood’s Elm Grove Village that didn’t flood after 50 inches of rain from Harvey in 2017 flooded after a 5-inch rain on May 7, 2019.
The giant Colony Ridge development in Liberty County virtually doubled in size during the last two years. By the end of 2023, it was at least 50% bigger than Manhattan. The developers:
I took the following six shots over Colony Ridge in 2023. They show small portions of the developer’s clearing activity, but represent hundreds of other shots too numerous to include here.
Some call this progress. But Colony Ridge is now the subject of a Federal lawsuit by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Other Developments Leave Land Exposed to Erosion
Colony Ridge isn’t the only development in the Lake Houston Area that leaves land exposed to erosion. Here are several others.
Saint Tropez in Huffman at FM2100 and Meyer Road.
I could cite dozens of additional examples like these. When rains wash through these sites, they pick up sediment and carry it downstream.
Sediment Deposition
Eroded sediment from these clearing operations washes downstream. It drops out of suspension where the water slows as it reaches Lake Houston.
The result: sand bars that reduce the conveyance of the river, forcing water out of the banks and into people’s homes.
Good News, Bad News
The good news: many blockages like the one above have been removed through dredging by the Army Corps and City.
The bad news: Many boaters have written in the last few months, complaining about how shallow the rivers are once again becoming due to unchecked sedimentation.
While I am ecstatic about another year without a flood, I hope we do not become complacent about preventing activities that contribute to flooding.
Flood Gate Project Goes Into 2024 with Momentum
So as not to finish the year on a down note, I would like to mention the project to add more flood gates to the Lake Houston dam.
In 2023, Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin and Chief Recover Officer Stephen Costello accomplished an extraordinary “lift.” They convinced FEMA to include social benefits in their Benefit/Cost Ratio calculation. This helped them achieve a benefit/cost ratio greater than one, meaning benefits exceeded costs for the gates.
Then, they rallied local, state, and federal officials to fund the project so it could move forward. While $20 million of the $170+ million for the project comes from the 2018 flood bond, it will be hard for certain Harris County Commissioners to block it now that everyone else has done their parts.
As a result, the project goes into 2024 with some momentum and a new mayor who is sensitive to flooding concerns in the Lake Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/31/23
2315 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Flood-Mapping Changes Recommended to FEMA
On October 30, 2023, the Technical Mapping Advisory Council (TMAC) recommended that FEMA implement six flood mapping changes. The objectives:
SFHA and FPA Definition Recommendations
FEMA currently defines a Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) as land “subject to a 1 percent or greater chance of flooding in any given year.” The SFHA may contain several different zones that show different degrees of risk. Historically, FEMA has equated the SFHA with “floodplain” or “flood-prone area” (FPA).
TMAC recommends redefining these terms to give them different meanings. TMAC also recommends using a higher standard of accuracy (95% confidence level as opposed to 50%), but more on that later.
If FEMA adopts the recommendations, the term “Special Flood Hazard Area” would apply to areas that currently require flood insurance for mortgages made by federally regulated lending institutions.
The term Flood-Prone Area, on the other hand, they argue, should be reserved to reflect future risks from climate change and development. See below.
Why separate the two? Lenders would face resistance to enforcement of the insurance-purchase mandate if it meant requiring flood insurance on homes or businesses not yet in the 1-percent-annual-chance floodplain.
But having a separate, second definition that reflects future risk could help floodplain managers lower the probability of future flooding for homes under construction by applying to building codes, elevation requirements, and more. It could also give home buyers additional information on which to base their decisions.
Recommendation for Higher Confidence Limits
Because of a perceived rise in flood occurrences on properties lying outside the SFHA, the lending community has become more suspicious of the standard’s accuracy. People see the SFHA’s flood insurance requirement as a binary choice. “I need it or I don’t.”
But the current definition is based on the AVERAGE chance of flooding. That means 50% of properties would have a higher risk than indicated and the rest would have a lower chance.
After a flood, surprised borrowers sometimes blame their mortgage companies. “How come you didn’t tell me I was at risk?” Many buyers conclude they are safe based on a misunderstanding of technical details related to the 1% annual-chance standard.
The new standard proposes a 95% confidence interval as opposed to an average risk. That would include homes expected to flood in all but 5% of floods. A confidence interval in statistics is another way to describe probabilities.
TMAC argues that an easily understood and interpreted standard would balance safe land use with economic benefit. It would also protect lenders, educate buyers, and encourage borrowers to act responsibly.
Redefining Flood-Prone Areas
The illustration below depicts TMAC’s concept for developing the FPA elevation and associated boundary. It includes an extra safety margin for climate change and future development.
This “freeboard factor” would be a proxy for estimated future conditions.
However, TMAC recognizes there may not be:
• Adequate land-use information to determine the impact of future development or
• Planned development expected to change flood conditions or
• Sufficient information to determine the impacts of climate change.
0.2% Annual Chance Flood Recommendations
For consistency and ease of communication/education, TMAC recommends applying the 95% confidence limit to .02% annual chance floods also. These were previously known as 500-year floods.
Fill Recommendations
Bringing fill dirt into a floodplain to elevate homes reduces the amount of storage capacity for floodwaters. Fill can also often increase hazards to nearby property owners and have negative environmental impacts.
Currently, a maze of regulations governs the use of fill. TMAC recommends consolidating and clarifying all fill requirements in flood-prone areas.
Among the recommendations: Prohibiting fill as a floodproofing technique.
Notice of Fill Impacts
TMAC recommends that FEMA should require participating communities, as part of permitting duties, to quantify and put on file the impacts of proposed fill and other development on flood height and the environment prior to issuing fill permits.
When increases in flood elevation or potential negative environmental consequences are found and cannot be mitigated, at a minimum, property owners and appropriate environmental agencies should be notified prior to issuing permits.
Many such requirements already exist for floodways. This recommendation would expand the requirement to floodplains.
The TMAC report observes that large amounts of fill placed in the flood fringe can potentially create significant impacts upstream, downstream or both. But there are no impact notification requirements in many communities and states.
“This is in effect a risk transfer to uninformed landowners and environmental stewardship organizations,” says the report.
Status of Adoption Unclear at this Point
Due to the holidays, I’ve had trouble determining where FEMA stands in adopting these recommendations. TMAC clearly labels these “interim recommendations.”
Congress plans to take up the subject of flood insurance in January or February. So we may get some clarity then. Check back often.
The problem with proposed changes to regulations is that they create winners and losers. People with risky land to sell may not want fuller disclosure. On the other hand, those in danger of flooding may want more information.
The states seem divided on flood-insurance reform. Some want to continue encouraging floodplain development by keeping NFIP premiums low. Others want to avoid burdening taxpayers with NFIP bailouts. They claim higher premiums help avoid development of flood-prone land.
It could take years to find suitable compromises. In the meantime, buyers beware. Perhaps TMAC’s recommendations will help improve awareness.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/27/2023
2311 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Happy Holidays from the Lake Houston Area
Despite occasional hurricanes and biblical rainfalls, there’s no place I’d rather live than the Lake Houston Area. Where else can you find all the amenities of Houston next to so much nature? Below are some of my favorite photos taken here over the years.
Roseate Spoonbill, East End Park, Kingwood
And then there are the spectacular sunrises and sunsets. Dr. Charles Campbell, who specializes in functional medicine, took the two photos below. And good medicine they are!
I hope you find these images as restful and as spiritually rejuvenating as I do.
This area is worth preserving and protecting. Where else can you live next to beauty like this – inside the city limits of one of America’s largest cities?
Peace to all. And happy holidays.
Posted by Bob Rehak on December 22, 2023
2306 Days since Hurricane Harvey