6/4/24 – Rainfall in the upper part of the San Jacinto River (SJR) Basin during early May storms rivaled Hurricane Harvey totals there. And if you consider year-to-date rainfall (YTD) totals, the amount above normal equals two Harveys in places!
The comparisons with Harvey help put into perspective some extraordinary rainfall in a relatively small geographic area that affects a much larger area.
The comparisons help explain why many people in the Lake Houston Area felt the May flood was far out of proportion to the amount of rainfall received. The most extreme rains did not fall on downstream residents’ heads. For downstream residents, the rains fell unseen – 50 miles north.
Let’s look at data for Huntsville first. Even though the City itself technically sits just outside the San Jacinto River Basin, rainfall south and west of the City entered both the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto.
Harvey Week vs Week Around May Storm
During Hurricane Harvey week in 2017, the SJRA gage southwest of Huntsville received 20.46 inches of rain.
Area near Huntsville received 20.46 inches during Harvey week in 2017.
During the late April/early May storm of 2024, the same gage received just a little less – 18.4 inches.
Huntsville total for week starting April 28, 2024, fell about two inches short of Harvey.
This area got almost as much rain in one week this May as it did during Harvey. Now let’s look at year to date numbers.
Year-to-Date Totals Vs. Harvey
The National Weather Service maintains another gage in Huntsville which accounts for a slightly different total. But I’m using it for the YTD comparison because of the powerful graph. It illustrates how much rain the area recently received compared to normal. (We already know the Harvey total from the first bar graph above.)
From the brown line above, we can see that area normally gets 20 inches of rain through the end of May. This year it got 58.97 inches, almost triple the annual average at that point in the year.
The amount above normal (38.97 inches) is almost twice what the Huntsville area received during Harvey (20.46 inches)!
National Weather Service Data
So far this year, the upper river basin has received almost three Harveys worth of rain, or two above the normal YTD rainfall…for that latitude.
I should note here, that inland areas usually receive less rain than coastal areas during hurricanes. So if you’re saying, “Wait a minute! We received more than 20 inches of rain during Harvey,” you’re right. You also probably live south of Huntsville.
How to Compare Totals at Other Gages
Want to see what happened at a gage near you? HCFCD’s Flood Warning System lets you enter any date range using the historical feature. Just click on the “More Info” button associated with any gage. Or do it for the whole river basin to see the distribution of totals.
YTDrainfall distribution across upper SJR basin.
To quickly compare the distribution during Harvey, just change the dates to 8/25/17 and 8/29/17. It’s fun to explore. And it makes a fun learning experience for your kids. Teach them how to become “data detectives.” It could turn them into homeroom heroes.
Alternatively, you can compare Harris County gages during Harvey by consulting the tables at the end of HCFCD’s final Harvey report. It contains peak rainfall totals for all the gages above for time periods ranging from five minutes to four days.
There’s a point to all this data. We can draw several conclusions and recommendations from it:
Extreme rainfall in the northern tier of the river basin contributed to the flooding that many experienced 50 miles south.
Rainfall coming from the west and east was less intense and likely accounted for less damage downstream.
Heavy rains can fall outside of hurricane season. In fact, spring storms can exceed hurricane rainfall totals and rival hurricane intensity.
We need regional flood control. The people near Huntsville were not prepared for this event. Neither were people to the south protected.
Hurricane Harvey wasn’t a once-in-a-1,000 year rainfall. Pretending it was will jeopardize public safety. We need better building codes and drainage regulations in areas that haven’t already been updated since Harvey.
We also need updated flood maps that show current risk to help protect homebuyers. New floodplain surveys were conducted after Hurricane Harvey. But FEMA hasn’t yet released new risk maps based on those surveys. Many fast-growing areas in the region still base development decisions on data from the 1980s. That puts homebuyers at risk.
Flood Risk: A Shifting Target
Even as FEMA finalizes new flood-risk maps, understand that Mother Nature, sand mines, and insufficiently mitigated upstream developments are constantly changing the landscape through erosion and deposition.
The resulting blockages and reduction in conveyance may now contribute to increased flooding on smaller rains. Consider River Grove Park and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. Both are now blocked by sand from upstream.
Kingwood Diversion Ditch where it passes through River Grove Park.Photo from 5/26.
It’s not as bad as it was after Harvey…yet. But up to five feet of sand was deposited in this area during the recent flood. So give it a few more floods.
As the City of Houston readies a $34 million dollar dredging program (that doesn’t even include River Grove), look what’s coming downstream to us.
Confluence of West Fork and Spring Creek near US59 bridge. West Fork, on right.
The West Fork snakes through 20 square miles of sand mines between US59 and I-45. And due to pit capture, the West Fork currently runs through a mile-long sand pit.
That raises one final recommendation: I wish the City could use its influence in Washington and Austin to have the EPA and TCEQ eliminate these blatant abuses.
In the meantime, the Kingwood Service Association will debate its own dredging program and the future of River Grove this Thursday night. To attend the online meeting, contact the KSA office at 281-358-5192 for a Zoom link.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 4, 2024
2471 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/20240530-DJI_20240530161911_0905_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-06-04 17:28:232024-06-04 21:28:42Top of SJR Basin Has Received Normal YTD Rainfall Plus a Harvey or Two
Hurricane season has started. For those new to the Gulf Coast and younger family members, here’s where to find authoritative hurricane information. Many of these sites are updated several times a day. They contain information that can help keep you and your family alive when severe weather threatens. So please share.
Most if not all forecasting agencies predict an above-average to well-above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes for 2024. Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner offers these tips for staying alert and ready. Here’s how to keep your eye on the tropics and factors that contribute to hurricanes.
National Hurricane Center
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) offers the most up-to-date tropical storm and hurricane information. During the season, NHC updates its outlooks several times per day. They give you 2- and 7-day outlooks with the probability of tropical system formation and the most likely tracks for storms. The familiar cone graphics that show possible storm tracks will change this year to include watches, warnings, and impact areas, which can extend well outside of the cone.
Lindner reminds us that seasonal forecasts do not include storm tracks and landfalls. Steering currents in the atmosphere that guide storm tracks change from day to day and week to week. So don’t focus on the “numbers.” Instead prepare every year!
Contributing Factors
Several factors continue to support a lot of activity this year. They include:
Sea Surface Temperatures
The Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico continue to have well-above-normal sea surface temperatures. Recent high pressure systems have warmed the Gulf to near record levels for this time of year. With that said Gulf water temperatures can quickly change up and down. Overall, Atlantic basin water temperatures continue to run closer to middle summer than early June. Additionally, the Atlantic Ocean has a classic look to the above average waters that in the past have resulted in above average tropical activity. Check out seasonal anomalies (deviation from normal) at Current Operational SST Anomaly Charts – OSPO (noaa.gov).
Sea Surface Temperature anomalies as of 6/2/24.
El Niño/La Niña
El Niño (warm water in the Pacific from south America to south of Hawaii) continues to quickly fade. Cool water is starting to replace it. The Pacific will transition into La Nina toward mid- to late summer.
This tends to support Atlantic basin tropical development…especially in the Caribbean Sea. La Nina conditions help to reduce wind shear and create conditions more favorable for tropical storms and hurricane to not only develop but intensify. This NOAA presentation covers the transition and is dated 6/3/24.
Global long range models continue to show an active and wet Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the June-September time period. They forecast much-above-average rainfall in the SW/W Caribbean Sea. This signal in 2020 coincided with several tropical storms and hurricanes moving from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
ECMWF predicts below-average, sea-level pressures throughout portions of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea into at least the southern Gulf of Mexico. Lower pressures make it easier for tropical systems to form. See ECMWF | Charts.
Recent guidance from ECWMF and Colorado State University indicates enhanced potential for development in the Caribbean. Watch this in the upcoming season.
Storms that develop in the Caribbean tend to impact land areas more than storms that form off the coast of Africa. Storms that form off Africa tend to have at least some opportunity to turn northward over the open Atlantic Ocean prior to reaching the land areas in the western basin.
Local
As always…now is the time to prepare. Have plans of action in place should a tropical storm or hurricane approach the Texas coast this season. It all starts with accurate and timely hurricane information.
Should a tropical system threaten the Texas coast detailed impacts and forecasts can be found at the local National Weather Service Office webpage Houston/Galveston, TX (weather.gov).
The Links Page of ReduceFlooding contains links to these websites and dozens of others related to weather, preparedness, floodplains and releases from local lakes.
Please pass this information along to newcomers to the area and your family members.
Posted on 6/3/24 by Bob Rehak based on information from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
2470 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Harvey-Peak-Intensity.jpg?fit=1500%2C843&ssl=18431500adminadmin2024-06-03 19:53:152024-06-03 19:53:16Where to Find Hurricane Information
Several years ago, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) made a giant leap forward with real-time inundation mapping. You could log onto the Harris County Flood Warning System, click on “inundation map,” zoom into your neighborhood, and see how close floodwater was getting in “near real time.”
It was a radical advance over earlier system. But now we need another radical advance – predictive inundation mapping.
No one, as far as I can see, offers such a service. The National Weather Service predicts how high water will get at gages, but not between them where people live.
How Close Will the Floodwater Get…At My Location?
Buyers today have much more information at their fingertips than decades ago, but no one puts it all together.
One of the most useful websites during a flood is the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. There, you can see how fast water is rising, where it will peak, when it will fall, and a hydrologic history of the event. (See layout below.)
From June 2 at 1:41PM for West Fork San Jacinto at US59
This is a huge advance over everything before it. But unfortunately, it only predicts flood heights at gages. Most people don’t know how their distance from a gage, elevation changes, and local topography will affect the peak at their home or business. Especially if they are new to a neighborhood, like the woman below.
Kingwood resident who moved here in January from a desert, then promptly flooded in May.
The mapping feature is a great enhancement compared to the NWS site in some ways. It shows the extent of flooding between gages.
But unfortunately, the Flood Warning System won’t tell you how close water will get at its peak.
So when you realize you need to get out, you may not have enough time to make thorough preparations.
Screen capture from Harris County Flood Warning System. It shows current flooding, but not peak flooding.
Trying to Integrate the Best of Both Approaches
Those with knowledge of prior floods may be able to translate gage readings upstream to their location downstream.
But almost 10% of the American population moves every year. So, five years after a hurricane hit an area, half of the people in a neighborhood would likely have little knowledge or memory of it.
More than real-time inundation mapping, we need predictive inundation mapping.
Legal Concerns over Bad Information
One official I talked to for this article feared such a system. What if the prediction were wrong? What if it implied someone would be safe and then they died while evacuating? Imagine the legal liability!
As a result, officials often err on the side of caution. They may issue orders to evacuate in much wider areas than necessary.
We saw that during the May flood this year. The county issued evacuation maps that showed the extent of flooding during Harvey. As a result, people may be less inclined to evacuate for the next storm, even if it is warranted.
In extreme cases, such over-reaction has resulted in harm. Those who have lived in the Houston area for 20 years or more may remember the disastrous mass evacuation during Hurricane Rita in 2005.
One hundred thirteen people died from Rita in Texas, 107 of which were associated with the evacuation of the Houston metropolitan area.
Need for Better Tools
A former HCFCD employee told me that HCFCD has been working on a predictive inundation mapping system for years. But, says the source, it’s incredibly complex and requires validation.
Validation involves confirming predictions against real-world storms. However, giant, widespread floods don’t just happen every year. And every storm is unique, as we saw in yesterday’s post about the early May storm. Some areas may get feet of rain, while others get inches.
You just can’t generalize. Every storm is unique. And referring to historical analog storms may fail for several reasons:
Massive developments, such as Colony Ridge, may have changed the hydrology of the watershed. Colony Ridge has grown 50% larger than Manhattan in just ten years.
Rainfall intensity may vary in storms, even if rainfall totals don’t.
Unequal rainfall distribution means that flood peaks may combine in different ways at different times.
Potential Ways to Handle Uncertainty
To help handle those contingencies, predictive inundation maps could have buffer zones showing degrees of uncertainty. For instance, “If you’re in Zone A, there’s a 100% chance you will flood. In Zone B, 50%. In Zone C, 25%, etc.”
Plus, the legislature could craft legal protections for agencies making such predictions based on the best available information and science.
We need a public debate. Perhaps an even better approach will emerge from the dialog.
That would be far preferable, in my opinion, to causing immense anxiety among millions.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/2/24
2469 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/20240510-RJR_3506.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2024-06-02 17:49:082024-06-02 17:49:10The Next Step in Inundation Mapping
Top of SJR Basin Has Received Normal YTD Rainfall Plus a Harvey or Two
6/4/24 – Rainfall in the upper part of the San Jacinto River (SJR) Basin during early May storms rivaled Hurricane Harvey totals there. And if you consider year-to-date rainfall (YTD) totals, the amount above normal equals two Harveys in places!
The comparisons with Harvey help put into perspective some extraordinary rainfall in a relatively small geographic area that affects a much larger area.
The comparisons help explain why many people in the Lake Houston Area felt the May flood was far out of proportion to the amount of rainfall received. The most extreme rains did not fall on downstream residents’ heads. For downstream residents, the rains fell unseen – 50 miles north.
Let’s look at data for Huntsville first. Even though the City itself technically sits just outside the San Jacinto River Basin, rainfall south and west of the City entered both the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto.
Harvey Week vs Week Around May Storm
During Hurricane Harvey week in 2017, the SJRA gage southwest of Huntsville received 20.46 inches of rain.
During the late April/early May storm of 2024, the same gage received just a little less – 18.4 inches.
This area got almost as much rain in one week this May as it did during Harvey. Now let’s look at year to date numbers.
Year-to-Date Totals Vs. Harvey
The National Weather Service maintains another gage in Huntsville which accounts for a slightly different total. But I’m using it for the YTD comparison because of the powerful graph. It illustrates how much rain the area recently received compared to normal. (We already know the Harvey total from the first bar graph above.)
From the brown line above, we can see that area normally gets 20 inches of rain through the end of May. This year it got 58.97 inches, almost triple the annual average at that point in the year.
So far this year, the upper river basin has received almost three Harveys worth of rain, or two above the normal YTD rainfall…for that latitude.
I should note here, that inland areas usually receive less rain than coastal areas during hurricanes. So if you’re saying, “Wait a minute! We received more than 20 inches of rain during Harvey,” you’re right. You also probably live south of Huntsville.
How to Compare Totals at Other Gages
Want to see what happened at a gage near you? HCFCD’s Flood Warning System lets you enter any date range using the historical feature. Just click on the “More Info” button associated with any gage. Or do it for the whole river basin to see the distribution of totals.
To quickly compare the distribution during Harvey, just change the dates to 8/25/17 and 8/29/17. It’s fun to explore. And it makes a fun learning experience for your kids. Teach them how to become “data detectives.” It could turn them into homeroom heroes.
Alternatively, you can compare Harris County gages during Harvey by consulting the tables at the end of HCFCD’s final Harvey report. It contains peak rainfall totals for all the gages above for time periods ranging from five minutes to four days.
The Reports Page of this website contains similar reports on other storms under the Major Storms tab.
Significance and Recommendations
There’s a point to all this data. We can draw several conclusions and recommendations from it:
Flood Risk: A Shifting Target
Even as FEMA finalizes new flood-risk maps, understand that Mother Nature, sand mines, and insufficiently mitigated upstream developments are constantly changing the landscape through erosion and deposition.
The resulting blockages and reduction in conveyance may now contribute to increased flooding on smaller rains. Consider River Grove Park and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. Both are now blocked by sand from upstream.
It’s not as bad as it was after Harvey…yet. But up to five feet of sand was deposited in this area during the recent flood. So give it a few more floods.
As the City of Houston readies a $34 million dollar dredging program (that doesn’t even include River Grove), look what’s coming downstream to us.
The West Fork snakes through 20 square miles of sand mines between US59 and I-45. And due to pit capture, the West Fork currently runs through a mile-long sand pit.
That raises one final recommendation: I wish the City could use its influence in Washington and Austin to have the EPA and TCEQ eliminate these blatant abuses.
In the meantime, the Kingwood Service Association will debate its own dredging program and the future of River Grove this Thursday night. To attend the online meeting, contact the KSA office at 281-358-5192 for a Zoom link.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 4, 2024
2471 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Where to Find Hurricane Information
Hurricane season has started. For those new to the Gulf Coast and younger family members, here’s where to find authoritative hurricane information. Many of these sites are updated several times a day. They contain information that can help keep you and your family alive when severe weather threatens. So please share.
Most if not all forecasting agencies predict an above-average to well-above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes for 2024. Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner offers these tips for staying alert and ready. Here’s how to keep your eye on the tropics and factors that contribute to hurricanes.
National Hurricane Center
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) offers the most up-to-date tropical storm and hurricane information. During the season, NHC updates its outlooks several times per day. They give you 2- and 7-day outlooks with the probability of tropical system formation and the most likely tracks for storms. The familiar cone graphics that show possible storm tracks will change this year to include watches, warnings, and impact areas, which can extend well outside of the cone.
NHC also contains an incredible amount of other valuable information. It includes tips on hurricane preparedness, education, tracking, records, satellite imagery, and more. Much more.
Lindner reminds us that seasonal forecasts do not include storm tracks and landfalls. Steering currents in the atmosphere that guide storm tracks change from day to day and week to week. So don’t focus on the “numbers.” Instead prepare every year!
Contributing Factors
Several factors continue to support a lot of activity this year. They include:
Sea Surface Temperatures
The Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico continue to have well-above-normal sea surface temperatures. Recent high pressure systems have warmed the Gulf to near record levels for this time of year. With that said Gulf water temperatures can quickly change up and down. Overall, Atlantic basin water temperatures continue to run closer to middle summer than early June. Additionally, the Atlantic Ocean has a classic look to the above average waters that in the past have resulted in above average tropical activity. Check out seasonal anomalies (deviation from normal) at Current Operational SST Anomaly Charts – OSPO (noaa.gov).
El Niño/La Niña
El Niño (warm water in the Pacific from south America to south of Hawaii) continues to quickly fade. Cool water is starting to replace it. The Pacific will transition into La Nina toward mid- to late summer.
This tends to support Atlantic basin tropical development…especially in the Caribbean Sea. La Nina conditions help to reduce wind shear and create conditions more favorable for tropical storms and hurricane to not only develop but intensify. This NOAA presentation covers the transition and is dated 6/3/24.
NOAA’s Climate website offers regular updates on the transition. So does Columbia’s Climate School.
Global Long Range Models
Global long range models continue to show an active and wet Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the June-September time period. They forecast much-above-average rainfall in the SW/W Caribbean Sea. This signal in 2020 coincided with several tropical storms and hurricanes moving from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico.
Above-average rainfall tend to suggest favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms that can grow into tropical storms and hurricanes. See NMME Model – 3-monthly Total Precip Anomaly for North Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
ECMWF predicts below-average, sea-level pressures throughout portions of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea into at least the southern Gulf of Mexico. Lower pressures make it easier for tropical systems to form. See ECMWF | Charts.
Recent guidance from ECWMF and Colorado State University indicates enhanced potential for development in the Caribbean. Watch this in the upcoming season.
Storms that develop in the Caribbean tend to impact land areas more than storms that form off the coast of Africa. Storms that form off Africa tend to have at least some opportunity to turn northward over the open Atlantic Ocean prior to reaching the land areas in the western basin.
Local
As always…now is the time to prepare. Have plans of action in place should a tropical storm or hurricane approach the Texas coast this season. It all starts with accurate and timely hurricane information.
Check tropical outlooks daily to keep up to date on potential areas of interest at National Hurricane Center (noaa.gov).
Should a tropical system threaten the Texas coast detailed impacts and forecasts can be found at the local National Weather Service Office webpage Houston/Galveston, TX (weather.gov).
The Links Page of ReduceFlooding contains links to these websites and dozens of others related to weather, preparedness, floodplains and releases from local lakes.
Please pass this information along to newcomers to the area and your family members.
Posted on 6/3/24 by Bob Rehak based on information from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
2470 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The Next Step in Inundation Mapping
Several years ago, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) made a giant leap forward with real-time inundation mapping. You could log onto the Harris County Flood Warning System, click on “inundation map,” zoom into your neighborhood, and see how close floodwater was getting in “near real time.”
It was a radical advance over earlier system. But now we need another radical advance – predictive inundation mapping.
No one, as far as I can see, offers such a service. The National Weather Service predicts how high water will get at gages, but not between them where people live.
How Close Will the Floodwater Get…At My Location?
Buyers today have much more information at their fingertips than decades ago, but no one puts it all together.
One of the most useful websites during a flood is the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. There, you can see how fast water is rising, where it will peak, when it will fall, and a hydrologic history of the event. (See layout below.)
This is a huge advance over everything before it. But unfortunately, it only predicts flood heights at gages. Most people don’t know how their distance from a gage, elevation changes, and local topography will affect the peak at their home or business. Especially if they are new to a neighborhood, like the woman below.
Real-Time Flood Mapping
So, what alternatives do people have? Harris County’s Flood Warning System shows you how far water is from your home in near real time.
The mapping feature is a great enhancement compared to the NWS site in some ways. It shows the extent of flooding between gages.
But unfortunately, the Flood Warning System won’t tell you how close water will get at its peak.
So when you realize you need to get out, you may not have enough time to make thorough preparations.
Trying to Integrate the Best of Both Approaches
Those with knowledge of prior floods may be able to translate gage readings upstream to their location downstream.
But almost 10% of the American population moves every year. So, five years after a hurricane hit an area, half of the people in a neighborhood would likely have little knowledge or memory of it.
Legal Concerns over Bad Information
One official I talked to for this article feared such a system. What if the prediction were wrong? What if it implied someone would be safe and then they died while evacuating? Imagine the legal liability!
As a result, officials often err on the side of caution. They may issue orders to evacuate in much wider areas than necessary.
We saw that during the May flood this year. The county issued evacuation maps that showed the extent of flooding during Harvey. As a result, people may be less inclined to evacuate for the next storm, even if it is warranted.
In extreme cases, such over-reaction has resulted in harm. Those who have lived in the Houston area for 20 years or more may remember the disastrous mass evacuation during Hurricane Rita in 2005.
One hundred thirteen people died from Rita in Texas, 107 of which were associated with the evacuation of the Houston metropolitan area.
Need for Better Tools
A former HCFCD employee told me that HCFCD has been working on a predictive inundation mapping system for years. But, says the source, it’s incredibly complex and requires validation.
Validation involves confirming predictions against real-world storms. However, giant, widespread floods don’t just happen every year. And every storm is unique, as we saw in yesterday’s post about the early May storm. Some areas may get feet of rain, while others get inches.
You just can’t generalize. Every storm is unique. And referring to historical analog storms may fail for several reasons:
Potential Ways to Handle Uncertainty
To help handle those contingencies, predictive inundation maps could have buffer zones showing degrees of uncertainty. For instance, “If you’re in Zone A, there’s a 100% chance you will flood. In Zone B, 50%. In Zone C, 25%, etc.”
Plus, the legislature could craft legal protections for agencies making such predictions based on the best available information and science.
We need a public debate. Perhaps an even better approach will emerge from the dialog.
That would be far preferable, in my opinion, to causing immense anxiety among millions.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/2/24
2469 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.