Until then, the entire Texas Coast up to San Luis Pass is under a tropical storm warning. Residents can expect heavy rains, coastal flooding and gusty winds through Thursday.
NHC expects Alberto to weaken quickly once it comes ashore early Thursday. The storm is moving at 9 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 40 MPH. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles north of the center.
Peak storm surge will reach 2-4 feet along the upper Texas Coast and Galveston Bay.
Rainfall Still Ratcheting Down
Rainfall predictions continue to ratchet down, however, especially for the Houston area as Alberto is pushed south by higher pressure from the northeast U.S.
Alberto should produce 5 to 10 inches of rainfall across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
NHC will produce more advisories on Alberto at 1 and 4 PM today.
Make Alberto a Learning Experience
If you have kids home from school looking for something to do, this is an excellent chance to teach them about tropical cyclones.
NHC offers dozens of educational resources geared toward students from K-12 all the way up to continuing education for weather professionals. Harness your child’s natural curiosity while storms are in the news.
I found NHC’s course on Hurricane Basics very informative. Before Alberto became Alberto, it had winds strong enough to qualify as a tropical storm, but NHC kept calling it a potential tropical cyclone instead. Do you know the other attributes that define tropical cyclones? Hurricane Basics tells you.
Want to know what it takes to get a tropical cyclone started?
What affects their intensity?
Or how various factors come together to produce more or less rainfall?
NHC describes each of the factors above and provides clear, simple illustrations that make them easy to understand.
This particular presentation also covers:
Storm tracks
Where hurricanes will most likely form depending on month of the season
Tropical distrubances
Track forecasting
Associated hazards, such as hurricanes
Relative risks from wind, rainfall, surge, flash flooding, etc.
Categories of storms and types of damage associated with each
More, much more.
Trivia: By the way, NHC provides climate data, too. Did you know, for instance, that the first named storm of the season usually occurs on June 20th in the Atlantic Basin. This year, the first named storm occurred on June 19.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/19/24
2486 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/144941_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-06-19 12:00:382024-06-19 12:00:39Alberto, First Named Storm of Season, Lashes Mexico, South TX
The heavy rainfall threat for the northeast Houston area from PTC1 (Potential Tropical Cyclone #1) has shifted southwest somewhat today. While the storm takes its time getting organized, high pressure from the eastern US is building into the Houston area. That’s squeezing the heaviest rains toward the coast and the Rio Grande Valley.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center warns of a second storm forming next week exactly where PTC1 is forming now. But it will likely head north, not west.
Heaviest Rainfall from PCT1 Shifting Southwest
Over the weekend, early predictions suggested heavy rains would arrive in the Lake Houston Area on Monday. Monday’s predictions suggested Tuesday. And now Tuesday’s predictions say the Lake Houston Area might get 1-3 inches of rain during the next three days.
The National Weather Service (NWS) now predicts PTC1 will produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals could approach 15 inches.
This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
NWS also predicts the broad circulation of PTC1 could produce extreme rainfall in Central America. Totals could average 10 to 20 inches with maximum amounts of 25 inches. Areas most affected include the Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, much of El Salvador, western Honduras, and far western Nicaragua.
Here’s what the storm looked like earlier today from space.
Landfall in Mexico
As of 4PM CDT Tuesday, NWS predicted PTC1 would make landfall in Mexico sometime within the next 24 to 36 hours as a tropical storm. They currently give it an 80% chance of formation.
At present, the storm exhibits wind speeds approaching tropical storm strength (39+ MPH). Tropical storm conditions could begin tonight or Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward 415 miles north of the center.
So focus less on the track and more on the impact.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns, “Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a large area of heavy rains. Expect moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center.”
Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through midweek.
If PTC1 becomes a tropical storm, its name will be Alberto.
Double Trouble?
NHC’s website showed something unusual today. One possible tropical system could develop within the area vacated by another. Within days of each other!
NHC gives a 20% chance of the second storm developing in the yellow area with the red X.
But instead of moving into Mexico, they predict the second storm could move northward. That could make it a direct threat to Houston.
So check NHC’s weather forecasts daily during hurricane season. As PTC1 proves, weather can change quickly.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/18/24
2485 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/180154WPCQPF_sm.gif?fit=892%2C716&ssl=1716892adminadmin2024-06-18 17:27:272024-06-18 17:32:42Heaviest Rainfall Threat from PTC1 Shifting Southwest
6/17/24 – At 4PM CDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The disturbance in the Gulf has a 70 percent chance of tropical formation during the next two days.
NHC also issued a tropical storm watch for Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande and onward to Boca de Catan in Mexico.
If a tropical storm forms, they will call it Alberto.
A satellite photo taken this morning of Potential Tropical Cyclone One shows storm clouds already starting to wind around a broad area of low pressure centered over the Yucatan. It has been spinning rain north into Texas and Louisiana. But the main event starts tomorrow.
Some slow strengthening is possible, The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. Formation chance through:
48 hours…high…70 percent.
7 days…high…70 percent.
Potential Tropical Cyclone One is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
Life-Threatening Flooding Likely in Mexico and Central America
“Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.”
The graphic below shows accumulations expected over the next five days.
Total expected rainfall from Tuesday through Sunday. Source: National Weather Service.
According to NHC, “Potential Tropical Cyclone One will produce “rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.”
Lake Houston Area Will See Far Less Rainfall
Locally, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts:
Coastal Counties: 7-9 inches (widespread), isolated totals over 12+ inches
I-10 corridor: 3-5 inches (widespread), isolated totals up to 7 inches
North of I-10: 3-4 inches (widespread), isolated totals up to 5 inches.
Lindner adds, “The most favorable time for heavy rainfall over southeast Texas will be from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.”
Use the rainfall amounts above as average. Training bands can quickly result in much higher totals and flash flooding in small areas near other areas that see little rainfall.”
Watersheds Most at Risk
Where the heaviest rains fall will determine responses on area watersheds. Lindner feels most Harris County creeks and bayous can handle 4-6 inches of rainfall. However, he warns that if isolated higher totals exceed 8 inches in southern Harris County, we might see trouble on:
Clear Creek and its tributaries
Armand Bayou
Willow Spring Bayou
Big Island Slough
Taylor’s Bayou
Goose Creek
Berry Bayou
Hunting Bayou
Keegans Bayou
Willow Waterhole
Lake Report
At 5PM, the SJRA has lowered Lake Conroe by one-third of a foot.
The Coastal Water Authority has lowered Lake Houston by a full foot.
I asked Lindner how much rain he expected between the lakes. The short answer: 2-3 inches with isolated totals up to 4 inches. With that amount of lake lowering, he does not expect structural flooding. But there are other dangers.
The mouth of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park shows how high sediment deposits have become. At Lake Houston’s normal level, that sand lurks just inches below the surface. Boaters have churned a temporary shallow channel through the sandbar with their props.
Mouth of Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park on afternoon of 6/17/24 with lake down one foot.
But with all the sand coming down the West Fork from sand-mine breaches, that sediment you see above will likely increase during this storm.
Confluence of Spring Creek and West Fork (right) near US59 Bridge on 6/16/24
But the greatest immediate threat exists near the coast.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 ft
Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX…1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA…1-3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/17/24 at 5PM based on information from NHC and NWS
2484 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Gulf-20240617.jpg?fit=1100%2C631&ssl=16311100adminadmin2024-06-17 17:42:542024-06-22 10:42:40NHC Issues Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One
Alberto, First Named Storm of Season, Lashes Mexico, South TX
6/19/24 – Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 just became Tropical Storm Alberto, according to the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 10 AM update. Alberto will reach the coast of northeast Mexico early tomorrow morning.
Texas Impacts from Alberto
Until then, the entire Texas Coast up to San Luis Pass is under a tropical storm warning. Residents can expect heavy rains, coastal flooding and gusty winds through Thursday.
NHC expects Alberto to weaken quickly once it comes ashore early Thursday. The storm is moving at 9 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 40 MPH. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles north of the center.
Peak storm surge will reach 2-4 feet along the upper Texas Coast and Galveston Bay.
Rainfall Still Ratcheting Down
Rainfall predictions continue to ratchet down, however, especially for the Houston area as Alberto is pushed south by higher pressure from the northeast U.S.
Alberto should produce 5 to 10 inches of rainfall across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
NHC will produce more advisories on Alberto at 1 and 4 PM today.
Make Alberto a Learning Experience
If you have kids home from school looking for something to do, this is an excellent chance to teach them about tropical cyclones.
NHC offers dozens of educational resources geared toward students from K-12 all the way up to continuing education for weather professionals. Harness your child’s natural curiosity while storms are in the news.
I found NHC’s course on Hurricane Basics very informative. Before Alberto became Alberto, it had winds strong enough to qualify as a tropical storm, but NHC kept calling it a potential tropical cyclone instead. Do you know the other attributes that define tropical cyclones? Hurricane Basics tells you.
Want to know what it takes to get a tropical cyclone started?
What affects their intensity?
Or how various factors come together to produce more or less rainfall?
NHC describes each of the factors above and provides clear, simple illustrations that make them easy to understand.
This particular presentation also covers:
Trivia: By the way, NHC provides climate data, too. Did you know, for instance, that the first named storm of the season usually occurs on June 20th in the Atlantic Basin. This year, the first named storm occurred on June 19.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/19/24
2486 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Heaviest Rainfall Threat from PTC1 Shifting Southwest
The heavy rainfall threat for the northeast Houston area from PTC1 (Potential Tropical Cyclone #1) has shifted southwest somewhat today. While the storm takes its time getting organized, high pressure from the eastern US is building into the Houston area. That’s squeezing the heaviest rains toward the coast and the Rio Grande Valley.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center warns of a second storm forming next week exactly where PTC1 is forming now. But it will likely head north, not west.
Heaviest Rainfall from PCT1 Shifting Southwest
Over the weekend, early predictions suggested heavy rains would arrive in the Lake Houston Area on Monday. Monday’s predictions suggested Tuesday. And now Tuesday’s predictions say the Lake Houston Area might get 1-3 inches of rain during the next three days.
The National Weather Service (NWS) now predicts PTC1 will produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals could approach 15 inches.
This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
NWS also predicts the broad circulation of PTC1 could produce extreme rainfall in Central America. Totals could average 10 to 20 inches with maximum amounts of 25 inches. Areas most affected include the Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, much of El Salvador, western Honduras, and far western Nicaragua.
Here’s what the storm looked like earlier today from space.
Landfall in Mexico
As of 4PM CDT Tuesday, NWS predicted PTC1 would make landfall in Mexico sometime within the next 24 to 36 hours as a tropical storm. They currently give it an 80% chance of formation.
At present, the storm exhibits wind speeds approaching tropical storm strength (39+ MPH). Tropical storm conditions could begin tonight or Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass.
So focus less on the track and more on the impact.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns, “Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a large area of heavy rains. Expect moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center.”
Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through midweek.
If PTC1 becomes a tropical storm, its name will be Alberto.
Double Trouble?
NHC’s website showed something unusual today. One possible tropical system could develop within the area vacated by another. Within days of each other!
NHC gives a 20% chance of the second storm developing in the yellow area with the red X.
But instead of moving into Mexico, they predict the second storm could move northward. That could make it a direct threat to Houston.
So check NHC’s weather forecasts daily during hurricane season. As PTC1 proves, weather can change quickly.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/18/24
2485 Days since Hurricane Harvey
NHC Issues Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One
6/17/24 – At 4PM CDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The disturbance in the Gulf has a 70 percent chance of tropical formation during the next two days.
NHC also issued a tropical storm watch for Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande and onward to Boca de Catan in Mexico.
If a tropical storm forms, they will call it Alberto.
A satellite photo taken this morning of Potential Tropical Cyclone One shows storm clouds already starting to wind around a broad area of low pressure centered over the Yucatan. It has been spinning rain north into Texas and Louisiana. But the main event starts tomorrow.
Moving NNW at 7 MPH with 40MPH Winds
Potential Tropical Cyclone One is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.
NHC expects a turn toward the west-northwest Tuesday night or Wednesday. The system will likely approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.
Some slow strengthening is possible, The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. Formation chance through:
Potential Tropical Cyclone One is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
Life-Threatening Flooding Likely in Mexico and Central America
“Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.”
The graphic below shows accumulations expected over the next five days.
According to NHC, “Potential Tropical Cyclone One will produce “rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.”
Lake Houston Area Will See Far Less Rainfall
Locally, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts:
Lindner adds, “The most favorable time for heavy rainfall over southeast Texas will be from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.”
Use the rainfall amounts above as average. Training bands can quickly result in much higher totals and flash flooding in small areas near other areas that see little rainfall.”
Watersheds Most at Risk
Where the heaviest rains fall will determine responses on area watersheds. Lindner feels most Harris County creeks and bayous can handle 4-6 inches of rainfall. However, he warns that if isolated higher totals exceed 8 inches in southern Harris County, we might see trouble on:
Lake Report
At 5PM, the SJRA has lowered Lake Conroe by one-third of a foot.
The Coastal Water Authority has lowered Lake Houston by a full foot.
I asked Lindner how much rain he expected between the lakes. The short answer: 2-3 inches with isolated totals up to 4 inches. With that amount of lake lowering, he does not expect structural flooding. But there are other dangers.
The mouth of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park shows how high sediment deposits have become. At Lake Houston’s normal level, that sand lurks just inches below the surface. Boaters have churned a temporary shallow channel through the sandbar with their props.
But with all the sand coming down the West Fork from sand-mine breaches, that sediment you see above will likely increase during this storm.
But the greatest immediate threat exists near the coast.
Coastal Warnings
Six to nine foot swells will be common throughout the Gulf for the next several days, according to NHC.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/17/24 at 5PM based on information from NHC and NWS
2484 Days since Hurricane Harvey