May 23, 2024 – This morning, NOAA issued its highest hurricane season forecast ever. The extreme predictions are consistent with earlier forecasts by other organizations. They also exceed NOAA’s own forecasts from 2005 and 2010, two previous record-setting years.
NOAA’s forecast underscores the importance of starting your preparations early. Hurricane season begins next week.
Reasons Behind Predictions
In issuing the forecast, NOAA pointed to a combination of several factors: extremely high sea surface temperatures, the onset of La Niña, an above-normal West African monsoon and extremely high levels of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).
To sum up, more storms will come off the African coast. High sea surface temperatures will intensify them. And a reduction in shear normally associated with La Niña will let them blossom into tropical events. The high ACE levels confirm that the elements above are likely to combine in dangerous ways.
NOAA says it is currently seeing sea surface temperatures in May normally associated with August.
2024 By the Numbers
The chart below shows the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes (Cat 3, 4 or 5) that NOAA predicts.
NOAA Predictions one week before start of 2024 hurricane season.
NOAA forecasts 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, they predict 8 to 13 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher). And of those, they predict 4 to 7 will become major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
The chart also shows the degree of confidence in the “above normal” prediction: 85%. The probability of an average or below normal season totals only 15%.
ACE Explained
At the press conference, a NOAA scientist explained how accumulated cyclone energy is measured. Forecasters add up the wind velocity measured at reporting stations every six hours, square the result, and divide by 10,000 to make the result more manageable.
The accumulated cyclone energy measured this year is the second highest ever.
NOAA Press Conference
New Cone Graphic Will Include Watches and Warnings
To protect lives, NOAA is enhancing communication, providing new tools for hurricane forecasting, and upgrading its systems.
For instance, the familiar “cone forecast” graphics will take on a new look this year. The maps will include watches and warnings associated with a storm. These can extend outside the cone of uncertainty
The old cones indicated only the probable centerlines of storm paths. But the width of a storm can create impacts far outside the cone. See below.
New NOAA Cone Graphic this year will feature watches and warnings
NOAA also warned this morning that threats can linger even after a storm has passed. For instance, rising water from heavy rains can create inland flooding that traps people in vehicles. It’s not only about storm surge. Remember: Turn around, don’t drown.
Ninety percent of storm-related fatalities occur from water.
NOAA
Many people are also killed during cleanup when they leave their homes too soon. Listen to local authorities.
They also reminded people to make sure they operate generators outdoors. Many die from carbon monoxide poisoning when operating generators indoors or in garages.
Seasonal Forecast Not a Landfall Prediction
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. However, other forecasters have predicted that less wind sheer associated with La Niña will let more storms enter the Gulf or form in the Gulf.
This new updated hurricane strike chart shows landfalls since 1950. Hurricanes can and have struck almost every point on the U.S. Gulf and East coasts. It only takes one storm to alter your life forever. So…
The Message: Start Preparing Now
The time to prepare for hurricane season is NOW. NOAA noted during the press conference that every Category 5 storm they have monitored was a tropical storm or less just three days earlier. That means you have only about 60 hours to prepare for and/or evacuate from the deadliest storms.
People with health or mobility issues need to take special precautions. NOAA offers extensive advice for hurricane preparation which you can find on this page in English and Spanish.
I’ve also provided a large number of links to specialized websites that focus on different aspects of preparedness. They include such things as checklists for generators, vehicles, kids, valuables, pets, etc. Look under the Preparedness heading on this Links Page.
In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA also issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific, central Pacific and western north Pacific hurricane basins.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/23/24
2459 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.png?fit=3840%2C2373&ssl=123733840adminadmin2024-05-23 12:34:332024-05-23 12:46:02NOAA Issues Highest Hurricane Season Forecast Ever
5/23/24 – The past may be catching up with Montgomery County. Heavy rains earlier this month may have flooded more homes in Montgomery County than Harris.
For decades, many Montgomery County leaders refused to acknowledge that they had a flooding problem. Neither, for that matter, did they seem exceptionally concerned about the downstream impact that lax regulations and enforcement had on flooding in Harris County.
For instance, they failed to:
Establish a flood control district.
Keep drainage channels clear and well maintained.
Update floodplain data from the 1980s.
Update their subdivision and drainage criteria regulations.
Close loopholes that let developers avoid building stormwater detention basins.
Fund the inspection of new infrastructure to ensure it complied with regulations.
Adequately regulate sand mining.
In fact, they encouraged exponential growth of sand mining by giving miners ag and timber exemptions on their real estate taxes, which the Texas Comptroller says they are not entitled to.
Flooded subdivision near West Fork San Jacinto in Montgomery County. Photo 5/22/24.
Floodplains as a Shifting Target
As a result of all these issues, flooding problems got worse over time. People who had built homes and even entire developments too close to rivers and streams flooded repeatedly. Homes deteriorated and lost value.
Young first-time homebuyers and other low-income people snapped them up, hoping they wouldn’t flood. In some cases, the homeowners didn’t even think they needed flood insurance because of the out-of-date flood maps. Many lost life savings and lived in deplorable conditions until they could scrimp together enough savings to fix their homes.
Many also sought buyouts and disaster relief. But such expenses usually fall on the federal government. So Montgomery County had little incentive to change on that count.
As a result of shortsighted policies and willful blindness, some MoCo leaders presided over the decay of once-proud homes into flood-ravaged housing stock.
And now, that damaged housing stock has created festering eyesores that may tarnish the image of the county as a destination for those trying to flee Harris County’s problems.
Flooded street one mile from West Fork San Jacinto in Montgomery County. Photo 5/22/24.
Self-Destructive Policies Hit Home
The self-destructive policies listed above have become…well…self destructive.
Leaders of decades past could explain away Harvey. “A 1000 year storm!”
But what about the no-name storm of May 2024? Ten-year rains produced so-called “50-year flooding” that rose higher than floodwaters from Tropical Storm Imelda – a greater than 500-year storm. MoCo math strikes again.
I drove for six hours through Montgomery County yesterday, visiting one flooded neighborhood after another. As victims continued to drag waterlogged drywall, carpet, insulation and furniture to the curb, they did not have good things to say about some elected officials.
FEMA Disaster Recovery officials swarmed neighborhoods like this today(5/22/24).
Downriver from the scene above, the main drainage channel through a new development called Evergreen has turned into a river of mud because of rampant erosion. It appears to have no:
Silt fences.
Backslope interceptor swales.
Grass on the sides of ditches.
Evergreen in Montgomery County at SH242 and FM1314 drains into West Fork below the flooded homes above.Did the erosion here reduce the conveyance of the river, back water up and contribute to flooding?
Will Change Come Anytime Soon?
Yes, the past may be catching up with Montgomery County. But change must come from within the county. Harris County can’t dictate it.
The final figures are not yet in. But based on an unscientific “driving around” survey, it appears that Montgomery County suffered as much flooding as Harris County did this May – if not more.
This should be a wake-up call for a course correction by Montgomery County leaders before it’s too late.
Since taking office a short while ago, newly elected MoCo Precinct 4 Commissioner Matt Gray has fought hard to upgrade MoCo standards. The rest of Montgomery County drains through his precinct. Perhaps this event will open the eyes of his fellow Commissioners and County Judge.
We’re all in this together. Even the people north of Lake Conroe will live downstream from others in fast-growing, surrounding counties someday as the region expands relentlessly outward.
The sand mines will follow that growth. Get ready. They’re coming.
San Jacinto River, blocked by sand, now flows through abandoned West Fork sand mine, sending even more sediment downriver.
Dozens of Montgomery County homes flooded downstream from the fiasco in the photo above. Sedimentation may have played a role as it has in the past. It’s just too early to tell.
The time to reach out and work together is now. Not after MoCo math and stuck-in-the-past policies start to look attractive to commissioners and judges in surrounding Liberty, Waller, Grimes, Walker and San Jacinto Counties.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/23/24
2359 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/DJI_20240522153608_0776_D.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=16751200adminadmin2024-05-22 23:34:592024-05-23 12:06:46Past Catching Up With Montgomery County
May 21, 2024 – After a second round of May floods (and the third this year), all river levels are falling today. The East Fork, West Fork and main stem of the San Jacinto River are finally falling this morning. So are the water levels in Lake Conroe and Lake Houston.
But sedimentation will likely be a problem when floodwaters totally recede.
Gage Readings For Lake Conroe
The gates at Lake Conroe are still open, but only releasing 1,599 Cubic Feet per Second (CFS). That’s about a twelfth of what the San Jacinto River Authority released at the peak of this second wave of May floods.
The graph below shows that the lake level is slowly approaching its normal conservation pool of 201 feet.
Note distances to flowage easement and top of dam. Homes around lake should be built above flowage easement.
All Gage Readings on West Fork Falling
In response, the West Fork at US59 fell below flood stage yesterday evening and continues to fall.
River Grove Park is draining, but the soccer fields are not yet playable.
River Grove Park draining on 5/20/24 at 5PM after flood peak passed
At West Lake Houston Parkway, the West Fork is well within its banks and falling.
Readings on East Fork
Upstream on the East Fork at SH105, the East Fork crest has passed and the river continues to fall.
At FM2090, the East Fork is 4 feet below flood stage and falling.
The East Fork fell below flood stage yesterday afternoon at FM1485 and continues to fall.
Lake Houston and Below
At the FM1960 bridge over Lake Houston, the level continues to fall well below flood stage, but is still about a foot above normal.
At the Lake Houston dam, water levels are also falling, but the lake is also about a foot above the spillway.
Floodwaters are still being released from the lake via both the gates and spillway.
The gates can release 10,000 CFS. That means about another 7,500 CFS are going over the spillway.
Downstream, on the main stem of the San Jacinto at Highway 90, the river is well below flood stage and continuing to fall.
West Fork Still Flowing Through Abandoned Sand Pit
That’s all great news. But the West Fork is still flowing through an abandoned sand pit near the Hallett Mine. You can see the impact at the confluence of the West Fork and Spring Creek.
Confluence of Spring Creek (left) and West Fork San Jacinto (Right) on 5/20/24 at 5 PM.
Can Water Moving at 5 MPH Transport Sand?
I measured debris coming out of the pit. It was moving at approximately 5 miles per hour (MPH).
Despite what some miners claim, 5 MPH should be more than enough to carry sand downriver.
Below is an industry-standard graph that shows the speed necessary to erode, transport and deposit sand/sediment of different particle sizes. Hydrologists and geologists call it a Hjulström curve, named after Filip Hjulström (1902–1982), the man who developed it.
After converting centimeters per second to miles per hour, I superimposed the speed of the river as a blue line over the graph.
The scientific Unified Soil Classification System defines sand as particles with a diameter of 0.074 to 4.75 millimeters. I rendered that range in red at the bottom of the chart.
Blue indicates speed of water. Red indicates range of sand sizes.
Floodwater moving at 5 MPH can transport the entire range of sand sizes according to the Hjulström curve. You can see it in the photo above.
The river will need to recede before we can see exactly how much moved down to the West Fork between Humble and Kingwood, or settled at the mouth of the river near Lake Houston.
In fairness, some of the sediment deposited downstream came from natural erosion from riverbanks. But there was also unnatural erosion from development and (I have heard) other mines. It is impossible to apportion responsibility precisely.
What we can safely say is that sand mining practices have increased sedimentation downstream and few people seem eager to fight the industry … even as we get ready to launch another round of dredging that will cost taxpayers $34 million.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/24
2457 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/20240520-DJI_20240520175218_0749_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-05-21 13:01:342024-05-21 13:06:00All River Levels Falling, Flood Danger Over, But…
NOAA Issues Highest Hurricane Season Forecast Ever
May 23, 2024 – This morning, NOAA issued its highest hurricane season forecast ever. The extreme predictions are consistent with earlier forecasts by other organizations. They also exceed NOAA’s own forecasts from 2005 and 2010, two previous record-setting years.
NOAA’s forecast underscores the importance of starting your preparations early. Hurricane season begins next week.
Reasons Behind Predictions
In issuing the forecast, NOAA pointed to a combination of several factors: extremely high sea surface temperatures, the onset of La Niña, an above-normal West African monsoon and extremely high levels of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).
To sum up, more storms will come off the African coast. High sea surface temperatures will intensify them. And a reduction in shear normally associated with La Niña will let them blossom into tropical events. The high ACE levels confirm that the elements above are likely to combine in dangerous ways.
NOAA says it is currently seeing sea surface temperatures in May normally associated with August.
2024 By the Numbers
The chart below shows the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes (Cat 3, 4 or 5) that NOAA predicts.
NOAA forecasts 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, they predict 8 to 13 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher). And of those, they predict 4 to 7 will become major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
The chart also shows the degree of confidence in the “above normal” prediction: 85%. The probability of an average or below normal season totals only 15%.
ACE Explained
At the press conference, a NOAA scientist explained how accumulated cyclone energy is measured. Forecasters add up the wind velocity measured at reporting stations every six hours, square the result, and divide by 10,000 to make the result more manageable.
New Cone Graphic Will Include Watches and Warnings
To protect lives, NOAA is enhancing communication, providing new tools for hurricane forecasting, and upgrading its systems.
For instance, the familiar “cone forecast” graphics will take on a new look this year. The maps will include watches and warnings associated with a storm. These can extend outside the cone of uncertainty
The old cones indicated only the probable centerlines of storm paths. But the width of a storm can create impacts far outside the cone. See below.
NOAA also warned this morning that threats can linger even after a storm has passed. For instance, rising water from heavy rains can create inland flooding that traps people in vehicles. It’s not only about storm surge. Remember: Turn around, don’t drown.
Many people are also killed during cleanup when they leave their homes too soon. Listen to local authorities.
They also reminded people to make sure they operate generators outdoors. Many die from carbon monoxide poisoning when operating generators indoors or in garages.
Seasonal Forecast Not a Landfall Prediction
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. However, other forecasters have predicted that less wind sheer associated with La Niña will let more storms enter the Gulf or form in the Gulf.
This new updated hurricane strike chart shows landfalls since 1950. Hurricanes can and have struck almost every point on the U.S. Gulf and East coasts. It only takes one storm to alter your life forever. So…
The Message: Start Preparing Now
The time to prepare for hurricane season is NOW. NOAA noted during the press conference that every Category 5 storm they have monitored was a tropical storm or less just three days earlier. That means you have only about 60 hours to prepare for and/or evacuate from the deadliest storms.
People with health or mobility issues need to take special precautions. NOAA offers extensive advice for hurricane preparation which you can find on this page in English and Spanish.
I’ve also provided a large number of links to specialized websites that focus on different aspects of preparedness. They include such things as checklists for generators, vehicles, kids, valuables, pets, etc. Look under the Preparedness heading on this Links Page.
In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA also issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific, central Pacific and western north Pacific hurricane basins.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/23/24
2459 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Past Catching Up With Montgomery County
5/23/24 – The past may be catching up with Montgomery County. Heavy rains earlier this month may have flooded more homes in Montgomery County than Harris.
For decades, many Montgomery County leaders refused to acknowledge that they had a flooding problem. Neither, for that matter, did they seem exceptionally concerned about the downstream impact that lax regulations and enforcement had on flooding in Harris County.
For instance, they failed to:
In fact, they encouraged exponential growth of sand mining by giving miners ag and timber exemptions on their real estate taxes, which the Texas Comptroller says they are not entitled to.
Floodplains as a Shifting Target
As a result of all these issues, flooding problems got worse over time. People who had built homes and even entire developments too close to rivers and streams flooded repeatedly. Homes deteriorated and lost value.
Young first-time homebuyers and other low-income people snapped them up, hoping they wouldn’t flood. In some cases, the homeowners didn’t even think they needed flood insurance because of the out-of-date flood maps. Many lost life savings and lived in deplorable conditions until they could scrimp together enough savings to fix their homes.
Many also sought buyouts and disaster relief. But such expenses usually fall on the federal government. So Montgomery County had little incentive to change on that count.
As a result of shortsighted policies and willful blindness, some MoCo leaders presided over the decay of once-proud homes into flood-ravaged housing stock.
And now, that damaged housing stock has created festering eyesores that may tarnish the image of the county as a destination for those trying to flee Harris County’s problems.
Self-Destructive Policies Hit Home
The self-destructive policies listed above have become…well…self destructive.
Leaders of decades past could explain away Harvey. “A 1000 year storm!”
But what about the no-name storm of May 2024? Ten-year rains produced so-called “50-year flooding” that rose higher than floodwaters from Tropical Storm Imelda – a greater than 500-year storm. MoCo math strikes again.
I drove for six hours through Montgomery County yesterday, visiting one flooded neighborhood after another. As victims continued to drag waterlogged drywall, carpet, insulation and furniture to the curb, they did not have good things to say about some elected officials.
Downriver from the scene above, the main drainage channel through a new development called Evergreen has turned into a river of mud because of rampant erosion. It appears to have no:
Will Change Come Anytime Soon?
Yes, the past may be catching up with Montgomery County. But change must come from within the county. Harris County can’t dictate it.
The final figures are not yet in. But based on an unscientific “driving around” survey, it appears that Montgomery County suffered as much flooding as Harris County did this May – if not more.
This should be a wake-up call for a course correction by Montgomery County leaders before it’s too late.
Since taking office a short while ago, newly elected MoCo Precinct 4 Commissioner Matt Gray has fought hard to upgrade MoCo standards. The rest of Montgomery County drains through his precinct. Perhaps this event will open the eyes of his fellow Commissioners and County Judge.
We’re all in this together. Even the people north of Lake Conroe will live downstream from others in fast-growing, surrounding counties someday as the region expands relentlessly outward.
The sand mines will follow that growth. Get ready. They’re coming.
Dozens of Montgomery County homes flooded downstream from the fiasco in the photo above. Sedimentation may have played a role as it has in the past. It’s just too early to tell.
The time to reach out and work together is now. Not after MoCo math and stuck-in-the-past policies start to look attractive to commissioners and judges in surrounding Liberty, Waller, Grimes, Walker and San Jacinto Counties.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/23/24
2359 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
All River Levels Falling, Flood Danger Over, But…
May 21, 2024 – After a second round of May floods (and the third this year), all river levels are falling today. The East Fork, West Fork and main stem of the San Jacinto River are finally falling this morning. So are the water levels in Lake Conroe and Lake Houston.
But sedimentation will likely be a problem when floodwaters totally recede.
Gage Readings For Lake Conroe
The gates at Lake Conroe are still open, but only releasing 1,599 Cubic Feet per Second (CFS). That’s about a twelfth of what the San Jacinto River Authority released at the peak of this second wave of May floods.
The graph below shows that the lake level is slowly approaching its normal conservation pool of 201 feet.
All Gage Readings on West Fork Falling
In response, the West Fork at US59 fell below flood stage yesterday evening and continues to fall.
River Grove Park is draining, but the soccer fields are not yet playable.
At West Lake Houston Parkway, the West Fork is well within its banks and falling.
Readings on East Fork
Upstream on the East Fork at SH105, the East Fork crest has passed and the river continues to fall.
At FM2090, the East Fork is 4 feet below flood stage and falling.
The East Fork fell below flood stage yesterday afternoon at FM1485 and continues to fall.
Lake Houston and Below
At the FM1960 bridge over Lake Houston, the level continues to fall well below flood stage, but is still about a foot above normal.
At the Lake Houston dam, water levels are also falling, but the lake is also about a foot above the spillway.
Floodwaters are still being released from the lake via both the gates and spillway.
The gates can release 10,000 CFS. That means about another 7,500 CFS are going over the spillway.
Downstream, on the main stem of the San Jacinto at Highway 90, the river is well below flood stage and continuing to fall.
West Fork Still Flowing Through Abandoned Sand Pit
That’s all great news. But the West Fork is still flowing through an abandoned sand pit near the Hallett Mine. You can see the impact at the confluence of the West Fork and Spring Creek.
Can Water Moving at 5 MPH Transport Sand?
I measured debris coming out of the pit. It was moving at approximately 5 miles per hour (MPH).
Despite what some miners claim, 5 MPH should be more than enough to carry sand downriver.
Below is an industry-standard graph that shows the speed necessary to erode, transport and deposit sand/sediment of different particle sizes. Hydrologists and geologists call it a Hjulström curve, named after Filip Hjulström (1902–1982), the man who developed it.
After converting centimeters per second to miles per hour, I superimposed the speed of the river as a blue line over the graph.
The scientific Unified Soil Classification System defines sand as particles with a diameter of 0.074 to 4.75 millimeters. I rendered that range in red at the bottom of the chart.
Floodwater moving at 5 MPH can transport the entire range of sand sizes according to the Hjulström curve. You can see it in the photo above.
The abandoned pit captured by the river is about a mile long and a half-mile wide.
The river will need to recede before we can see exactly how much moved down to the West Fork between Humble and Kingwood, or settled at the mouth of the river near Lake Houston.
In fairness, some of the sediment deposited downstream came from natural erosion from riverbanks. But there was also unnatural erosion from development and (I have heard) other mines. It is impossible to apportion responsibility precisely.
What we can safely say is that sand mining practices have increased sedimentation downstream and few people seem eager to fight the industry … even as we get ready to launch another round of dredging that will cost taxpayers $34 million.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/24
2457 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.