6/29/24 1:30PM and updated at 3PM – Overnight, a tropical depression in the Atlantic turned into a tropical storm named Beryl. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted Beryl would intensify into a hurricane by Sunday morning. But it reached hurricane strength by approximately 3PM today. NHC now predicts, Beryl will become a category 3 major hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.
Some models predict it could even turn into a category 4 hurricane as it tracks through the Caribbean. While it is generally headed toward the Gulf, the exact track remains uncertain this far out.
Beryl is one of the earliest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic. For advisories related to Beryl, see this page on the NHC site.
Meanwhile two other areas of concern are developing. One now over the Yucatan has a 50% chance of development. The other west of Africa has a 70% chance as of Saturday, 6/29/24 at 3PM CDT.
On top of all these storms, the Trinity River Authority has put the Lake Livingston Dam on “potential failure watch.”
Beryl Track
Beryl will continue west for the next 2-3 days. The storm’s strength will affect its track according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. Intensity will determine Beryl’s ability to fight high pressure to the north. The stronger it becomes, the farther north it will curve. The less it intensifies, the farther west it will track.
“At this point it is too early to determine the eventual longer term movement beyond the western Caribbean Sea,” cautions Lindner.
National Hurricane Center cone of uncertainty for Beryl shows it becoming a major hurricane by Monday 7/1/24.Most models predict a path toward the Gulf.Different combinations of models take Beryl in slightly different directions.
Beryl Intensity Forecasts
Lindner says that “conditions appear unusually favorable for this time of year and location for development.” Regional hurricane models (HWRF, HOMN, HAFSA, and HAFB) all show significant deepening of this system prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Well above-normal Atlantic water temperatures and low upper-level shear support continued development.
“The main question,” says Lindner, “is how quickly can Beryl form an inner core today or tonight and what potential is the upper end limit on intensification through the Islands?”‘
Satellite Photo from 11:20 AM Houston time, 6/29/24. Beryl is in right-hand circle.
Most models predict a 65 knot wind-speed increase in the next 72 hours. That far exceeds what climatology would suggest for this area for this time of year.
This morning, NHC forecasts a 110mph category 2 hurricane hitting the Windward Islands. They cautioned that their estimate might needed to be increased within the next 12-24 hours. But they increased it within six. By its 2 PM update, NHC predicted Beryl would reach major hurricane status before reaching the Windward Islands.
As Beryl moves deeper into the Caribbean Sea, wind sheer and dry air west of the storm could limit further intensification.
Lindner feels that Day 4-5 wind shear forecasts are not always reliable and the weakening trend shown on the right above may be somewhat overdone.
Another Storm Will Cross Gulf and Head into Mexico
A strong tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea has reached the eastern coast of the Yucatan and Belize. See the left hand circle in the satellite photo above.
A large area of deep convection has formed. Land interaction and westerly wind shear will inhibit immediate development. However, there may be a brief window for modest development in the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday/Monday. Then the storm should move inland over eastern Mexico. Current development odds remain around 50%.
Third Storm has 70% Chance of Formation in Atlantic
NHC indicates that a third storm will likely form in the same area where Beryl is now. See the elongated oval below.
This tropical wave is currently located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is showing signs of organization. Another tropical depression or storm may form by the middle part of next week as this wave moves westward along a similar track as Beryl. Chances for development over the next several days are 70%.
Lake Livingston Dam on Failure Watch
With all this activity in the tropics, it is somewhat disconcerting that the Trinity River Authority has placed the Lake Livingston Dam on a “Potential Failure Watch” due to recent heavy rainfall and flooding.
TRA says the dam is in no immediate danger of failing or breaching. They also say that day-to-day operations will continue, but “gate operations will vary based on conditions.” Translation: They’ll be releasing more water faster in the event of more heavy rainfall.
Look out below.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/29/24 and updated at 3PM
2496 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Beryl-Cone.png?fit=876%2C717&ssl=1717876adminadmin2024-06-29 12:24:192024-06-29 16:11:07TS Beryl Predicted to Reach Hurricane Strength within 24 Hours
6/28/24 – According to Houston Public Works’ website, the Tree Lane Bridge Rehabilitation Project next to Bear Branch Elementary was to have been completed today. But construction hasn’t even started yet.
Completion Scheduled for End of June
The latest update, posted just last Thursday, shows “end of June 2024” as the promised completion date.
Screen capture from 4PM June 28, 2024, last workday of the month.
But as of the end of the day today, equipment hadn’t moved in approximately two months, with the exception of moving an excavator farther back from the creek when erosion crept dangerously close to it in the May floods.
Erosion from May floods threatened the parking spot for this construction equipment.
Originally, Houston Public Works said construction would take 6 months. Now we have just 5 weeks before the start of the next school year.
Hurricane Approaching
Meanwhile, a tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic. And the National Hurricane Center predicts it will enter the Gulf as a hurricane approximately a week from now.
On the current trajectory, Houston would be in the cone.
There’s still a large degree of uncertainty associated with any storm this far out. But this underscores the fact that the Tree Lane Bridge project is far behind schedule and we are likely entering a very active hurricane season.
Development this far east in late June is unusual, according to the NHC. In fact, they say, “There have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.” Some models are already predicting this could become a major hurricane (Cat 3 or 4).
The lack of Tree Lane Bridge Rehabilitation progress will expose the bridge to even more erosion if this storm strikes the Houston area. As you can see, the bridge can’t afford much more.
Erosion under bridge
Reasons for Delays
On June 13, Darryl Burrell, EIT, Graduate Engineer, Capital Projects for Houston Public Works, wrote, “There have been multiple instances of utility relocations.”
He added, “Some have already been completed. Our personnel are coordinating with multiple teams and entities. We are all working to get this issue alleviated in a timely manner.”
Photo 6/13/24. That 12″ black pipe is reportedly a city water line that has been exposed since at least April 2022.
I saw a cable company working at the location on 6/17/24, but nothing since then. That was almost two weeks ago. That swooping line in the foreground remains there today.
Editorial Comment: Enforce Deadlines
I’m not sure who is to blame, but would observe this.
As the City looks for ways to trim its budget, it should look at enforcing deadlines.
I wonder how many times contractors have had to reschedule crews around other contractors that didn’t do their jobs on time. That has to increase costs.
And one last issue. Construction delays exposed this area to even greater erosion. That may force revision of the engineering plan, construction drawings, bids, timetables and more.
Why do it once when you can do it twice? Sorry for the cynicism.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/28/24
2495 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/20240613-DJI_20240613110051_0166_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-06-28 18:04:512024-06-28 18:12:24Tree Lane Project Supposed to be Done Today, But Hasn’t Started
6/27/24 5PM –The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted 2024 would become one of the most active hurricane seasons ever in the tropics. We’re not out of June yet. And we’ve already had one tropical storm. Now, another potential system is about to head from the Caribbean into the Gulf. And a third area of concern is barreling westward toward the Caribbean. See below.
Chances of Development
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Conditions may become slightly better for some organization of (the yellow area) once over the southern Gulf of Mexico.”
The red area shows signs of better organization today. NHC currently gives it an 80% chance of development in the next 7 days, and 60% in the next two.
Potential Tracks for Red Area
More important, some models suggest it could turn into a full blown major hurricane (Cat 3 or Cat 4). And one of the models shows the potential track shooting the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan into the central Gulf.
Intensity Could Reach Cat 4, Unusual This Early in Season
We’re still way too far out to predict with certainty what will happen, but it’s instructive to note some climatology. In the 30 years between 1991 and 2020, NHC says that the average date for the first hurricane was August 11. And the first major hurricane usually doesn’t happen until September 1.
That said, see what the models are forecasting 4 to 5 days out.
Current Satellite View of Two Systems
Models are great. But I’m also a great believer in eyeballs. Here’s what the two systems look like at 4:30 PM CDT from a satellite. Note the developing storms south of Florida and North of the eastern coast of South America.
Better to Be Prepared
As usual, I end such posts with a caution to pray for the best and prepare for the worst. I’ve posted a variety of links on preparedness from trusted sources on my Links Page. Just scroll down.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/27/24 at 5PM
2494 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Tropics-6.27.24.png?fit=1354%2C1000&ssl=110001354adminadmin2024-06-27 17:18:392024-06-27 18:57:56Potential Trouble in the Tropics
TS Beryl Predicted to Reach Hurricane Strength within 24 Hours
6/29/24 1:30PM and updated at 3PM – Overnight, a tropical depression in the Atlantic turned into a tropical storm named Beryl. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted Beryl would intensify into a hurricane by Sunday morning. But it reached hurricane strength by approximately 3PM today. NHC now predicts, Beryl will become a category 3 major hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.
Some models predict it could even turn into a category 4 hurricane as it tracks through the Caribbean. While it is generally headed toward the Gulf, the exact track remains uncertain this far out.
Beryl is one of the earliest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic. For advisories related to Beryl, see this page on the NHC site.
Meanwhile two other areas of concern are developing. One now over the Yucatan has a 50% chance of development. The other west of Africa has a 70% chance as of Saturday, 6/29/24 at 3PM CDT.
On top of all these storms, the Trinity River Authority has put the Lake Livingston Dam on “potential failure watch.”
Beryl Track
Beryl will continue west for the next 2-3 days. The storm’s strength will affect its track according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. Intensity will determine Beryl’s ability to fight high pressure to the north. The stronger it becomes, the farther north it will curve. The less it intensifies, the farther west it will track.
“At this point it is too early to determine the eventual longer term movement beyond the western Caribbean Sea,” cautions Lindner.
Beryl Intensity Forecasts
Lindner says that “conditions appear unusually favorable for this time of year and location for development.” Regional hurricane models (HWRF, HOMN, HAFSA, and HAFB) all show significant deepening of this system prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Well above-normal Atlantic water temperatures and low upper-level shear support continued development.
“The main question,” says Lindner, “is how quickly can Beryl form an inner core today or tonight and what potential is the upper end limit on intensification through the Islands?”‘
Most models predict a 65 knot wind-speed increase in the next 72 hours. That far exceeds what climatology would suggest for this area for this time of year.
This morning, NHC forecasts a 110mph category 2 hurricane hitting the Windward Islands. They cautioned that their estimate might needed to be increased within the next 12-24 hours. But they increased it within six. By its 2 PM update, NHC predicted Beryl would reach major hurricane status before reaching the Windward Islands.
As Beryl moves deeper into the Caribbean Sea, wind sheer and dry air west of the storm could limit further intensification.
Lindner feels that Day 4-5 wind shear forecasts are not always reliable and the weakening trend shown on the right above may be somewhat overdone.
Another Storm Will Cross Gulf and Head into Mexico
A strong tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea has reached the eastern coast of the Yucatan and Belize. See the left hand circle in the satellite photo above.
A large area of deep convection has formed. Land interaction and westerly wind shear will inhibit immediate development. However, there may be a brief window for modest development in the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday/Monday. Then the storm should move inland over eastern Mexico. Current development odds remain around 50%.
Third Storm has 70% Chance of Formation in Atlantic
NHC indicates that a third storm will likely form in the same area where Beryl is now. See the elongated oval below.
This tropical wave is currently located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is showing signs of organization. Another tropical depression or storm may form by the middle part of next week as this wave moves westward along a similar track as Beryl. Chances for development over the next several days are 70%.
Lake Livingston Dam on Failure Watch
With all this activity in the tropics, it is somewhat disconcerting that the Trinity River Authority has placed the Lake Livingston Dam on a “Potential Failure Watch” due to recent heavy rainfall and flooding.
TRA says the dam is in no immediate danger of failing or breaching. They also say that day-to-day operations will continue, but “gate operations will vary based on conditions.” Translation: They’ll be releasing more water faster in the event of more heavy rainfall.
Look out below.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/29/24 and updated at 3PM
2496 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tree Lane Project Supposed to be Done Today, But Hasn’t Started
6/28/24 – According to Houston Public Works’ website, the Tree Lane Bridge Rehabilitation Project next to Bear Branch Elementary was to have been completed today. But construction hasn’t even started yet.
Completion Scheduled for End of June
The latest update, posted just last Thursday, shows “end of June 2024” as the promised completion date.
But as of the end of the day today, equipment hadn’t moved in approximately two months, with the exception of moving an excavator farther back from the creek when erosion crept dangerously close to it in the May floods.
Originally, Houston Public Works said construction would take 6 months. Now we have just 5 weeks before the start of the next school year.
Hurricane Approaching
Meanwhile, a tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic. And the National Hurricane Center predicts it will enter the Gulf as a hurricane approximately a week from now.
There’s still a large degree of uncertainty associated with any storm this far out. But this underscores the fact that the Tree Lane Bridge project is far behind schedule and we are likely entering a very active hurricane season.
Development this far east in late June is unusual, according to the NHC. In fact, they say, “There have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.” Some models are already predicting this could become a major hurricane (Cat 3 or 4).
The lack of Tree Lane Bridge Rehabilitation progress will expose the bridge to even more erosion if this storm strikes the Houston area. As you can see, the bridge can’t afford much more.
Reasons for Delays
On June 13, Darryl Burrell, EIT, Graduate Engineer, Capital Projects for Houston Public Works, wrote, “There have been multiple instances of utility relocations.”
He added, “Some have already been completed. Our personnel are coordinating with multiple teams and entities. We are all working to get this issue alleviated in a timely manner.”
I saw a cable company working at the location on 6/17/24, but nothing since then. That was almost two weeks ago. That swooping line in the foreground remains there today.
Editorial Comment: Enforce Deadlines
I’m not sure who is to blame, but would observe this.
As the City looks for ways to trim its budget, it should look at enforcing deadlines.
I wonder how many times contractors have had to reschedule crews around other contractors that didn’t do their jobs on time. That has to increase costs.
And one last issue. Construction delays exposed this area to even greater erosion. That may force revision of the engineering plan, construction drawings, bids, timetables and more.
Why do it once when you can do it twice? Sorry for the cynicism.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/28/24
2495 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Potential Trouble in the Tropics
6/27/24 5PM –The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted 2024 would become one of the most active hurricane seasons ever in the tropics. We’re not out of June yet. And we’ve already had one tropical storm. Now, another potential system is about to head from the Caribbean into the Gulf. And a third area of concern is barreling westward toward the Caribbean. See below.
Chances of Development
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Conditions may become slightly better for some organization of (the yellow area) once over the southern Gulf of Mexico.”
The red area shows signs of better organization today. NHC currently gives it an 80% chance of development in the next 7 days, and 60% in the next two.
Potential Tracks for Red Area
More important, some models suggest it could turn into a full blown major hurricane (Cat 3 or Cat 4). And one of the models shows the potential track shooting the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan into the central Gulf.
Intensity Could Reach Cat 4, Unusual This Early in Season
We’re still way too far out to predict with certainty what will happen, but it’s instructive to note some climatology. In the 30 years between 1991 and 2020, NHC says that the average date for the first hurricane was August 11. And the first major hurricane usually doesn’t happen until September 1.
That said, see what the models are forecasting 4 to 5 days out.
Current Satellite View of Two Systems
Models are great. But I’m also a great believer in eyeballs. Here’s what the two systems look like at 4:30 PM CDT from a satellite. Note the developing storms south of Florida and North of the eastern coast of South America.
Better to Be Prepared
As usual, I end such posts with a caution to pray for the best and prepare for the worst. I’ve posted a variety of links on preparedness from trusted sources on my Links Page. Just scroll down.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/27/24 at 5PM
2494 Days since Hurricane Harvey