6/16/24 – 8 PM update – As of 8 PM, the National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical formation to 70% from 50% for the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.
Excessive rainfall and flash flooding chances are increasing for the middle part of the week. Coastal counties could see 8-11 inches in widespread areas with isolated totals topping 12 inches.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner:
The I-10 corridor could experience 5-8 inches (widespread) with isolated totals up to 10 inches
North of I-10, people will see 3-5 inches (widespread) with isolated totals up to 8 inches.
Much of the rainfall will come over a 36-48 hour period (Tuesday and Wednesday).
National Weather Service gives most of Harris County a 3 out of 4 chance for excessive rainfall.
All of this rain is in association with a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.
The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical formation for that red area in the Gulf to 70%.
Whether the storm gets a name or not, it will impact the Houston area in several ways.
Forecasts have been trending upward with rainfall amounts over the last 24 hours. Given the incoming tropical moisture combined with the potential for cell training and high hourly rainfall rates, flash flooding is becoming an increasing concern.
Sustained heavy rains will be possible from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday over the area.
High hourly rainfall rates will result in rapid onset flash flooding.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Uncertainty remains as to where any sustained banding features will form and how far inland the heavy rainfall threat may extend. Stay tuned for changes to the forecast.
Significant rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers will be likely given the rainfall forecast. Where maximum totals occur, overbank flooding will be possible on creeks and bayous. Rivers which are still elevated from the spring rainfall will also likely see additional rises. However, flooding will depend on the position, magnitude, and coverage of the heavier rains and the inland extent.
Lake Conroe Being Lowered
In preparation, the San Jacinto River Authority continues to lower Lake Conroe. On Sunday morning, it was at 200.82 feet, several inches below its normal level of 201 feet. At 10 AM, SJRA was discharging 660 cubic feet per second.
Lake Houston Discharge Rate Jumps 7X
Downriver, the Coastal Water Authority increased the discharge rate from Lake Houston. The rate jumped from 1386 CFS to 9,905 CFS between 5 AM and 7 AM this morning.
Note steep jump in discharge rate at the far right.
Gusty Winds, Coastal Flooding, Dangerous Seas
As the much-advertised tropical weather event unfolds over the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 24 hours, Lindner anticipates increasing impacts, especially along the Texas Coast.
The plume of tropical moisture will arrive late tonight into Monday. Scattered showers will begin to work toward the coast tonight. Even greater moisture will flow inland Tuesday and Wednesday.
Banding thunderstorms and cell training will create potential for flash flooding. Models have trended upwards in the last 24 hours. The National Weather Service has given all areas south of I-10 a level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.
Wind Forecast
According to Lindner, winds will begin to increase on Monday, but really ramp up Tuesday into Wednesday. Coastal areas will likely experience frequent gusts to gale force.
Coastal waters: 35-45mph
Coastal counties: 25-40mph
Inland: 25-30mph
Coastal Flooding Likely Mid-Week During High Tides
Lindner expects building seas and elevated tides to exceed coastal flood thresholds along the upper Texas coast, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Total water levels are forecasted to reach 4.5-5.5 feet above barnacle level along the Gulf facing beaches late Tuesday into Wednesday and 4.0-5.0 feet in Galveston Bay.
Minor coastal flooding is likely late Tuesday into Wednesday in the usual low lying coastal areas (Bolivar, west end of Galveston Island, Blue Water Highway, Tiki Island, San Leon, Seabrook, Shoreacres).
Water and debris may cover portions of HWY 87 near HWY 124 on Bolivar at high tide. Low lying coastal roads will likely be impacted and covered with sea water at times of high tide.
10-12 Foot Seas
Lindner also warns that extreme dangerous/hazardous marine conditions will develop across all waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas will build 5-9 feet on Tuesday offshore and 4-6 feet in bays. Then they will build 10-12 feet on Wednesday offshore and 5-7 feet in bays.
Sustained winds of 30-40mph with frequent gusts of 45mph will be common across our local waters. Expect frequent squalls and periods of heavy rainfall and reduced visibility. Small craft should be secured in port by late Monday and remain in port until conditions improve.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/16/24 based on information from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, and NWS
2483 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/GQMc-Mea0AAQPCN.jpeg?fit=1243%2C705&ssl=17051243adminadmin2024-06-16 10:09:522024-06-16 20:05:17Flash Flooding Chances Increase for Tuesday, Wednesday
6/15/2024 – Fireworks erupted in the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ-10 Board Meeting on 6/13/24 over more Entergy delays related to the Northpark Expansion plan.
Four years after being notified to move its power poles and a transformer, Entergy still has equipment blocking the expansion. Ralph De Leon, the TIRZ project manager, explained that as a consequence, the TIRZ has been forced to modify its plans yet again.
Power Poles Conflict with Westbound Detour
Original plans called for routing westbound traffic in the vicinity of the bridge over the railroad and Loop 494 onto permanent turn lanes next to businesses. However, because Entergy power poles still stand where those turn lanes would go, LHRA decided to move traffic south, parallel to the existing eastbound lanes. See blacktop in photos and schematic diagram below.
Looking ESE from over Loop 494. Instead of funneling outbound traffic into new permanent lanes in front of the businesses on the left, commuters will use temporary lanes built on the blacktop. Photo 6/13/24.Looking west toward US59 at asphalt that will become temporary westbound lanes. Photo 6/13/24.
The permanent concrete lanes originally were to have gone in the grassy area to the right where the first line of poles is.
Replacing permanent lanes with alternate temporary lanes means that LHRA now will build these lanes twice instead of once. That will increase the project cost. However, no-one in the meeting mentioned an exact dollar amount.
De Leon said that in order to stick with the original traffic diversion plan, the deadline for removing the poles was last year.
Yet Entergy has not yet moved its poles where the new lanes will go. Nor have they provided a timetable for removing the poles. However, Brian Garcia, Entergy’s project manager, expressed confidence that the last poles would be removed “soon.”
It would be safe to say that most other people in the board meeting did not share his optimism. Discussion got heated at times as LHRA tried to pin Entergy down regarding a deadline. Hence, my reference to fireworks above.
Representatives of the City and TIRZ also made it clear that they intended to deduct the cost of the temporary lanes from any money that Entergy might have been entitled to for moving its transformer near the Exxon Station.
Two Groups of Poles
Two separate pole issues exist:
The original poles between Benjamin Moore Paints and Loop 494
Three key poles near the intersection of Northpark and Loop 494
The first group of poles has been “de-energized.” That means transformers and electric wires have already been moved. However, the old poles still have a fiberoptic communication line hanging from them. (Two lines in places). See below.
Looking west toward US59. Old poles on left still have fiberoptic line on them which must be moved to new poles on right.Photo 6/13/24.
The owner(s) of those remaining line(s) on the left must move them before Entergy can take down the old poles. But the fiberoptic provider has had weeks and not moved its line(s).
At the end of the line of poles above on the left sit three key poles shown in the aerial view below.
These three poles provide a redundant source of energy for businesses along Northpark. The businesses are also fed by power from Kings Mill.Photo 6/13/24
In the power business, it’s a standard/best practice to feed areas from at least two different directions. That way, if power is knocked out on one leg, the other leg can still supply homes and businesses.
Entergy has two choices with these three poles. It could move them north and continue to feed redundant power to Northpark businesses with overhead lines. Or, it could tunnel under Loop 494 and the railroad tracks. Entergy prefers to bore under for reliability reasons.
Again, Entergy’s Garcia is confident that the easements TXDot and Union Pacific require will be easy to obtain and come quickly. But the City and TIRZ do not share his confidence. They struggled for years to obtain their own easements and permits.
So, rather than just move the overhead lines north, Entergy is negotiating with TXDoT and Union Pacific to bore under their properties.
Who Will Bear Increased Costs?
After repeatedly being asked to provide a timetable for compliance, Entergy supplied none and instead shifted the conversation to its costs.
The overhead lines have sufficed for years. But Garcia says that Entergy prefers the underground option.
However, if all parties do not complete construction before October, the entire project could be delayed for months and possibly even cancelled. According to De Leon, Turner Brothers’, the prime contractor with the TIRZ, has other projects stacked up and waiting.
Turner Brothers would have to redeploy crews if they can’t keep them working on Northpark. And there’s no guarantee when those crews would be available again to work on Northpark.
But when the boardroom discussion turned to the need for Entergy to act quickly, Entergy turned the discussion to cost.
Garcia says there’s a significant cost for Entergy to move its overhead lines. If the company can bore underground instead, it would prefer to do that rather move its lines twice.
As a consequence, the TIRZ will be forced to shift traffic twice to keep the project moving.
Moreover, both the TIRZ and Entergy face a firm deadline from the railroad, whose busy season starts in October. They must have boring complete well before then with time for the railroad to lay new track and install new signal equipment.
Meanwhile, Entergy still has not moved its transformer near the Exxon Station at US59.
Argument Over Reimbursement
The transformer is outside the City’s easement but the power poles are inside.
Under Texas law, Entergy is entitled to reimbursement for costs outside City easements, but not those inside.
Ralph De Leon, Northpark Expansion Project Manager
Paying to move poles inside City easements would constitute a “gift of public funds,” which is illegal.
The two sides reached a tentative agreement on reimbursement last December. But then in January, Entergy demanded double the agreed total – without explanation or itemization.
In the June TIRZ board meeting, Garcia said he still needed to get the itemized costs approved by his management.
TIRZ directors (who are unpaid volunteers) could become liable for illegal payments to Entergy, hence the demand for itemized costs.
Other Northpark News
The pace of construction has also slowed due to heavy rains in May, which still have soils wet. When they dry out, contractors will resume:
Preparing to pour new concrete
Demolishing old concrete near Loop 494
Excavating the south pond at the US59 entry
Installing culverts
Looking E at progress of culverts. Ponding water in ditch (foreground) has slowed installation.Photo 6/13/24
For More Information
For more information about Northpark expansion, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding. Many contain information about previous delays that caused plan changes:
6/14/24, 10:00 AM – The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) is lowering Lake Conroe and the Coastal Water Authority (CWA) is lowering Lake Houston in advance of expected heavy rainfall associated with a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.
At this hour, forecasters predict storms could drop 3-6 inches of rain on the Houston area with the highest totals near the coast. But rain should drop off fairly sharply inland. However, uncertainty remains about how sharp the drop off will be.
Timing of Rain
Most of the rain should fall Monday through Wednesday, but could start as early as Sunday night. However, some models are beginning to forecast the heaviest rains from Tuesday into early Thursday.
Either way, dam operators should have time to lower their respective lakes and create extra storage capacity for stormwater.
Location of Disturbance
At 7:44 AM EDT, the center of the area of concern had not moved since yesterday. Moisture continues to build in the Bay of Campeche. But forecasters have increased the chances of any disturbance turning into a named storm from 40% yesterday to 50% today.
The National Hurricane Center has this to say: “A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.”
Houston Will Not Likely Take Direct Hit, But…
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says, “The Houston area will not likely take a direct hit from the system. While any tropical depression/storm is likely to remain south of the upper Texas coast, the deep ESE/SE fetch of moisture on the northeastern side of the feature will begin to arrive along the Texas coast as early as late Sunday and more likely into Monday and Tuesday.”
He continued, “It should be noted that the broad nature of this system and potentially ill-defined surface circulation will likely result in impacts spread well away from the actual low itself. Also, until any actual surface low forms, uncertainty will remain with the forecasts and impacts.”
Some models are predicting “outer banding features” in the Houston area. Despite a fair amount of uncertainty, the incoming tropical air mass could drop high amounts of rainfall in a short period of time.
That said, the National Weather Service has released this map showing predicted rainfall amounts for the next seven days.
Lakes Conroe and Houston Both Pre-Releasing
In preparation, Lake Conroe began releasing 660 cubic feet per second (CFS) after a City of Houston request early Friday morning. That is the maximum amount the SJRA can release before a storm under its permit. As the lake starts filling, that amount increases.
Mark Micheletti, an SJRA board member, said that SJRA hopes to lower the lake by six inches before the rains arrive.
Simultaneously, the CWA has opened the gates on the Lake Houston Dam. CWA is currently releasing 1335 CFS.
So, Lake Houston is releasing water twice as fast. And Lake Houston is half the size of Lake Conroe. Therefore, areas downstream should see lower lake levels faster. As it should be. Remember that Lake Houston is 30 miles closer to the coast, where forecasters expect the highest rainfall.
All gates on Lake Houston have been fixed and are fully operational.
Wind and Tide Impacts
For many people, rain isn’t the only concern. According to Lindner, “Winds will also start to increase early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the deepening area of low pressure to the southwest and building high pressure over the SE US. Winds of 20-30mph can be expected across the Gulf/nearshore/and inland bays with 20-25mph across the coastal counties,” according to Lindner.
For boaters and all those who work offshore, nearshore seas will build into the 4-6 ft range by Monday morning and 5-8 ft by Tuesday morning with offshore heights approaching 8-10 ft.
The current tide forecast indicates values of 1-2 ft above normal. But when coupled with the building seas at times of high tide water levels may get close to coastal flooding thresholds. That should happen Tuesday and Wednesday.
Some beach front locations will begin to experience minor coastal flooding around 3-4 ft above normal tide levels.
Given the potential prolonged nature of the ESE winds across the Gulf, we have the potential for tidal trapping. That’s when incoming seas won’t let the previous high tide drain away. This can, over time, build water levels in the bays.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/14/24
2481 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image001.png?fit=802%2C568&ssl=1568802adminadmin2024-06-14 10:15:352024-06-22 10:55:19Lakes Being Lowered in Advance of Expected Heavy Rains
Flash Flooding Chances Increase for Tuesday, Wednesday
6/16/24 – 8 PM update – As of 8 PM, the National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical formation to 70% from 50% for the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.
Excessive rainfall and flash flooding chances are increasing for the middle part of the week. Coastal counties could see 8-11 inches in widespread areas with isolated totals topping 12 inches.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner:
All of this rain is in association with a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.
Whether the storm gets a name or not, it will impact the Houston area in several ways.
Forecasts have been trending upward with rainfall amounts over the last 24 hours. Given the incoming tropical moisture combined with the potential for cell training and high hourly rainfall rates, flash flooding is becoming an increasing concern.
Sustained heavy rains will be possible from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday over the area.
Uncertainty remains as to where any sustained banding features will form and how far inland the heavy rainfall threat may extend. Stay tuned for changes to the forecast.
Last week, NWS was predicting far less rain from this system.
Significant Rises Likely on Waterways
Significant rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers will be likely given the rainfall forecast. Where maximum totals occur, overbank flooding will be possible on creeks and bayous. Rivers which are still elevated from the spring rainfall will also likely see additional rises. However, flooding will depend on the position, magnitude, and coverage of the heavier rains and the inland extent.
Lake Conroe Being Lowered
In preparation, the San Jacinto River Authority continues to lower Lake Conroe. On Sunday morning, it was at 200.82 feet, several inches below its normal level of 201 feet. At 10 AM, SJRA was discharging 660 cubic feet per second.
Lake Houston Discharge Rate Jumps 7X
Downriver, the Coastal Water Authority increased the discharge rate from Lake Houston. The rate jumped from 1386 CFS to 9,905 CFS between 5 AM and 7 AM this morning.
Gusty Winds, Coastal Flooding, Dangerous Seas
As the much-advertised tropical weather event unfolds over the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 24 hours, Lindner anticipates increasing impacts, especially along the Texas Coast.
The plume of tropical moisture will arrive late tonight into Monday. Scattered showers will begin to work toward the coast tonight. Even greater moisture will flow inland Tuesday and Wednesday.
Banding thunderstorms and cell training will create potential for flash flooding. Models have trended upwards in the last 24 hours. The National Weather Service has given all areas south of I-10 a level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.
Wind Forecast
According to Lindner, winds will begin to increase on Monday, but really ramp up Tuesday into Wednesday. Coastal areas will likely experience frequent gusts to gale force.
Coastal Flooding Likely Mid-Week During High Tides
Lindner expects building seas and elevated tides to exceed coastal flood thresholds along the upper Texas coast, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Total water levels are forecasted to reach 4.5-5.5 feet above barnacle level along the Gulf facing beaches late Tuesday into Wednesday and 4.0-5.0 feet in Galveston Bay.
Minor coastal flooding is likely late Tuesday into Wednesday in the usual low lying coastal areas (Bolivar, west end of Galveston Island, Blue Water Highway, Tiki Island, San Leon, Seabrook, Shoreacres).
Water and debris may cover portions of HWY 87 near HWY 124 on Bolivar at high tide. Low lying coastal roads will likely be impacted and covered with sea water at times of high tide.
10-12 Foot Seas
Lindner also warns that extreme dangerous/hazardous marine conditions will develop across all waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas will build 5-9 feet on Tuesday offshore and 4-6 feet in bays. Then they will build 10-12 feet on Wednesday offshore and 5-7 feet in bays.
Sustained winds of 30-40mph with frequent gusts of 45mph will be common across our local waters. Expect frequent squalls and periods of heavy rainfall and reduced visibility. Small craft should be secured in port by late Monday and remain in port until conditions improve.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/16/24 based on information from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, and NWS
2483 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Entergy Delay Forces Change to Northpark Expansion Plan…Again
6/15/2024 – Fireworks erupted in the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ-10 Board Meeting on 6/13/24 over more Entergy delays related to the Northpark Expansion plan.
Four years after being notified to move its power poles and a transformer, Entergy still has equipment blocking the expansion. Ralph De Leon, the TIRZ project manager, explained that as a consequence, the TIRZ has been forced to modify its plans yet again.
Power Poles Conflict with Westbound Detour
Original plans called for routing westbound traffic in the vicinity of the bridge over the railroad and Loop 494 onto permanent turn lanes next to businesses. However, because Entergy power poles still stand where those turn lanes would go, LHRA decided to move traffic south, parallel to the existing eastbound lanes. See blacktop in photos and schematic diagram below.
The permanent concrete lanes originally were to have gone in the grassy area to the right where the first line of poles is.
Here’s a schematic diagram of the change.
Cost Impact Not Yet Clear
Replacing permanent lanes with alternate temporary lanes means that LHRA now will build these lanes twice instead of once. That will increase the project cost. However, no-one in the meeting mentioned an exact dollar amount.
De Leon said that in order to stick with the original traffic diversion plan, the deadline for removing the poles was last year.
Yet Entergy has not yet moved its poles where the new lanes will go. Nor have they provided a timetable for removing the poles. However, Brian Garcia, Entergy’s project manager, expressed confidence that the last poles would be removed “soon.”
It would be safe to say that most other people in the board meeting did not share his optimism. Discussion got heated at times as LHRA tried to pin Entergy down regarding a deadline. Hence, my reference to fireworks above.
Representatives of the City and TIRZ also made it clear that they intended to deduct the cost of the temporary lanes from any money that Entergy might have been entitled to for moving its transformer near the Exxon Station.
Two Groups of Poles
Two separate pole issues exist:
The first group of poles has been “de-energized.” That means transformers and electric wires have already been moved. However, the old poles still have a fiberoptic communication line hanging from them. (Two lines in places). See below.
The owner(s) of those remaining line(s) on the left must move them before Entergy can take down the old poles. But the fiberoptic provider has had weeks and not moved its line(s).
At the end of the line of poles above on the left sit three key poles shown in the aerial view below.
In the power business, it’s a standard/best practice to feed areas from at least two different directions. That way, if power is knocked out on one leg, the other leg can still supply homes and businesses.
Entergy has two choices with these three poles. It could move them north and continue to feed redundant power to Northpark businesses with overhead lines. Or, it could tunnel under Loop 494 and the railroad tracks. Entergy prefers to bore under for reliability reasons.
Again, Entergy’s Garcia is confident that the easements TXDot and Union Pacific require will be easy to obtain and come quickly. But the City and TIRZ do not share his confidence. They struggled for years to obtain their own easements and permits.
So, rather than just move the overhead lines north, Entergy is negotiating with TXDoT and Union Pacific to bore under their properties.
Who Will Bear Increased Costs?
After repeatedly being asked to provide a timetable for compliance, Entergy supplied none and instead shifted the conversation to its costs.
The overhead lines have sufficed for years. But Garcia says that Entergy prefers the underground option.
However, if all parties do not complete construction before October, the entire project could be delayed for months and possibly even cancelled. According to De Leon, Turner Brothers’, the prime contractor with the TIRZ, has other projects stacked up and waiting.
Turner Brothers would have to redeploy crews if they can’t keep them working on Northpark. And there’s no guarantee when those crews would be available again to work on Northpark.
But when the boardroom discussion turned to the need for Entergy to act quickly, Entergy turned the discussion to cost.
Garcia says there’s a significant cost for Entergy to move its overhead lines. If the company can bore underground instead, it would prefer to do that rather move its lines twice.
As a consequence, the TIRZ will be forced to shift traffic twice to keep the project moving.
Moreover, both the TIRZ and Entergy face a firm deadline from the railroad, whose busy season starts in October. They must have boring complete well before then with time for the railroad to lay new track and install new signal equipment.
Meanwhile, Entergy still has not moved its transformer near the Exxon Station at US59.
Argument Over Reimbursement
The transformer is outside the City’s easement but the power poles are inside.
Paying to move poles inside City easements would constitute a “gift of public funds,” which is illegal.
The two sides reached a tentative agreement on reimbursement last December. But then in January, Entergy demanded double the agreed total – without explanation or itemization.
In the June TIRZ board meeting, Garcia said he still needed to get the itemized costs approved by his management.
TIRZ directors (who are unpaid volunteers) could become liable for illegal payments to Entergy, hence the demand for itemized costs.
Other Northpark News
The pace of construction has also slowed due to heavy rains in May, which still have soils wet. When they dry out, contractors will resume:
Preparing to pour new concrete
For More Information
For more information about Northpark expansion, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding. Many contain information about previous delays that caused plan changes:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/15/24
2482 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Lakes Being Lowered in Advance of Expected Heavy Rains
6/14/24, 10:00 AM – The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) is lowering Lake Conroe and the Coastal Water Authority (CWA) is lowering Lake Houston in advance of expected heavy rainfall associated with a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.
At this hour, forecasters predict storms could drop 3-6 inches of rain on the Houston area with the highest totals near the coast. But rain should drop off fairly sharply inland. However, uncertainty remains about how sharp the drop off will be.
Timing of Rain
Most of the rain should fall Monday through Wednesday, but could start as early as Sunday night. However, some models are beginning to forecast the heaviest rains from Tuesday into early Thursday.
Either way, dam operators should have time to lower their respective lakes and create extra storage capacity for stormwater.
Location of Disturbance
At 7:44 AM EDT, the center of the area of concern had not moved since yesterday. Moisture continues to build in the Bay of Campeche. But forecasters have increased the chances of any disturbance turning into a named storm from 40% yesterday to 50% today.
The National Hurricane Center has this to say: “A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.”
Houston Will Not Likely Take Direct Hit, But…
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says, “The Houston area will not likely take a direct hit from the system. While any tropical depression/storm is likely to remain south of the upper Texas coast, the deep ESE/SE fetch of moisture on the northeastern side of the feature will begin to arrive along the Texas coast as early as late Sunday and more likely into Monday and Tuesday.”
He continued, “It should be noted that the broad nature of this system and potentially ill-defined surface circulation will likely result in impacts spread well away from the actual low itself. Also, until any actual surface low forms, uncertainty will remain with the forecasts and impacts.”
Some models are predicting “outer banding features” in the Houston area. Despite a fair amount of uncertainty, the incoming tropical air mass could drop high amounts of rainfall in a short period of time.
That said, the National Weather Service has released this map showing predicted rainfall amounts for the next seven days.
Lakes Conroe and Houston Both Pre-Releasing
In preparation, Lake Conroe began releasing 660 cubic feet per second (CFS) after a City of Houston request early Friday morning. That is the maximum amount the SJRA can release before a storm under its permit. As the lake starts filling, that amount increases.
Mark Micheletti, an SJRA board member, said that SJRA hopes to lower the lake by six inches before the rains arrive.
Simultaneously, the CWA has opened the gates on the Lake Houston Dam. CWA is currently releasing 1335 CFS.
So, Lake Houston is releasing water twice as fast. And Lake Houston is half the size of Lake Conroe. Therefore, areas downstream should see lower lake levels faster. As it should be. Remember that Lake Houston is 30 miles closer to the coast, where forecasters expect the highest rainfall.
All gates on Lake Houston have been fixed and are fully operational.
Wind and Tide Impacts
For many people, rain isn’t the only concern. According to Lindner, “Winds will also start to increase early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the deepening area of low pressure to the southwest and building high pressure over the SE US. Winds of 20-30mph can be expected across the Gulf/nearshore/and inland bays with 20-25mph across the coastal counties,” according to Lindner.
For boaters and all those who work offshore, nearshore seas will build into the 4-6 ft range by Monday morning and 5-8 ft by Tuesday morning with offshore heights approaching 8-10 ft.
The current tide forecast indicates values of 1-2 ft above normal. But when coupled with the building seas at times of high tide water levels may get close to coastal flooding thresholds. That should happen Tuesday and Wednesday.
Some beach front locations will begin to experience minor coastal flooding around 3-4 ft above normal tide levels.
Given the potential prolonged nature of the ESE winds across the Gulf, we have the potential for tidal trapping. That’s when incoming seas won’t let the previous high tide drain away. This can, over time, build water levels in the bays.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/14/24
2481 Days since Hurricane Harvey