7/23/24 at 7PM – The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a flood watch for much of southeast Texas until at least Wednesday evening. They warn to keep storm drains clear of debris from Hurricane Beryl.
From National Weather Service/Houston as of 7PM 7/3/24
NWS already predicts the East Fork San Jacinto to reach the moderate flood stage. Other bayous and channels could follow, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist.
Perfect Setup for Heavy Rains, Flooding
Heavy storms have pummeled the area north of Lake Houston and Lake Conroe for most of the day and are continuing.
A combination of increasing Gulf moisture, lift from an upper level trough over the region, and slow/training storm motions will produce a threat for heavy to excessive rainfall tonight into Wednesday.
RadarScope Pro Image from 6:38PM on 7/23/24.
Lakes Rapidly Rising
As a result, as of 7 PM, the level of:
Lake Houston has increased almost a foot
Lake Conroe has risen a half foot.
The Coastal Water Authority is discharging 18,613 cubic feet per second (CFS) from Lake Houston. And the SJRA is releasing 4801 CFS from Lake Conroe.
SJRA warns that heavy rainfall potential remains in place for the next two to three days. The Lake Conroe outflow amount could possibly increase overnight if additional rain occurs in the watershed, they say.
Lake Conroe will continue to pass through storm water and runoff received in the Upper San Jacinto River Basin until Lake Conroe returns to normal conservation lake level of 201 feet.
Where to Find the Most Current Information
Monitor:
Real-time information on Lake Conroe at www.sjra.net.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist had this to say about the flood watch: “Heavy rainfall is currently ongoing over portions of Montgomery County with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over much of the area west of I-45 and north of I-10.”
Ongoing activity should begin to weaken later this evening. However, rainfall amounts over the next 3-5 hours of 2-4 inches in an hour or less will be possible with the heavier storms.
He also expects that we will see thunderstorms that slowly progress inland from the Gulf. These storms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour which is raising the flash flood risk for early Wednesday along and south of the I-10 corridor.
“It is possible that much of this activity could remain near the coast or just offshore, but it is close enough to warrant a close watch,” cautions Lindner. “Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches can be expected over much of the area with amounts of 4-6 inches south of I-10.”
Lindner says he would not be surprised to see an isolated 10-inch amount somewhere given the air mass in place.
Monitor the Harris County Flood Warning System for the most current river/bayou flood conditions near you.
Flash flooding will be possible under the heavy rain cores as well as quick rises on area creeks and bayous.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
East Fork of the San Jacinto River
Heavy rainfall yesterday and again today will produce a significant rise along the river from above Cleveland to Lake Houston starting on Wednesday and lasting into late this week.
The river will rise above flood stage late Wednesday at FM 1485 and above moderate flood levels on Thursday.
Low lying roads near the river will be impacted and FM 1485 will potentially be overtopped. However, the current forecast for the river is well below levels experienced in May of this year, according to Lindner.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/23/24
2520 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Approaching-storms.jpg?fit=1100%2C679&ssl=16791100adminadmin2024-07-23 19:56:002024-07-23 20:23:16Flood Watch Issued for Much of SE Texas Until Wednesday Evening
July 22 2024 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) still aims to complete the giant Mercer Stormwater Detention Basin between FM1960 and Cypress Creek just East of the Hardy Toll Road before the end of this year.
Pictures taken 7/22/24 Show Progress
Looking S toward FM1960 from over Mercer Basin. Hardy Toll Road cuts through upper right of frame.Reverse angle looking N toward Cypress Creek in trees just north of the northern basin.Looking West toward Hardy Toll Road at Southern Basin. FM1960 in upper left.
Compare these pictures of the Mercer Basin in February this year when clearing and construction was just getting started.
Fighting the Elements
All things considered – January floods, a derecho, May floods and Hurricane Beryl – contractors seem to be making good progress. Especially if you consider that I’ve already recorded 57 inches of rain in my gage in the first six and a half months of this year – more than we usually get in a full year.
How Big is It?
The Mercer Site covers 58 acres. It will contain twin, connected, dry-bottom basins totaling 512 acre feet.
One acre roughly equals the size of a football field without end zones. So, 512 acre feet would cover an area that large to a depth of 512 feet. That’s approximately the height of Two Allen Center downtown.
Of course, the basin won’t be 512 feet deep. It will likely be around 8 to 10 feet deep because it covers 58 acres minus room for maintenance roads.
History of Project
Harris County finalized acquisition of the property in August 2023. A $15.4 million grant obtained from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) in 2018 stipulates completion before the end of this year.
Additional funding comes from the 2018 Bond Program, which was approved by Harris County voters on August 25, 2018.
Layout and Location
The two maps below show the layout and location of the project.
HCFCD map of Mercer projectMercer is about 8 miles upstream from the US59 bridge over the West Fork.
Cypress Creek joins Spring Creek before reaching US59.
Construction Details
Features include:
Concrete box culverts will equalize water levels between the two compartments. And a spillway will connect the northern basin to Cypress Creek.
A 54” outfall pipe will move water from the basin into Cypress Creek.
A 30’ wide berm will accommodate maintenance and future recreational amenities.
Part of a Bigger Solution
Mercer is one of several stormwater detention basin projects HCFCD is developing in the Cypress Creek watershed.
A regional drainage study for the watershed found that rising floodwaters in Cypress Creek back water up into tributaries and cause flooding there. The tributaries have sufficient stormwater conveyance or drainage capacity. Therefore, stormwater detention basins can help reduce the backwater issue.
The regional drainage study described here recommends nearly 25,000 acre-feet of additional stormwater detention in the watershed.
Mercer by itself won’t help the Lake Houston Area much in a major flood. It’s designed to help primarily homes and businesses in the area which you can see in the photos above.
But every little bit helps.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2024
2519 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/20240722-DJI_20240722143845_0400_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-07-22 21:42:592024-07-23 20:14:42Giant Mercer Basin on Cypress Creek Aiming for Completion This Fall
July 21, 2024 – Last week, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) quietly shared this year’s flood-bond update with Commissioners Court. The update came during widespread power and internet outages from Hurricane Beryl that limited its visibility.
Combining the data in this flood-bond update with data from other sources reveals the impact of the County’s political divide and Equity Prioritization Indices. Both have affected projects in the Lake Houston area and Precinct 3 negatively.
But first some good news.
More Partner Funds Now Secured than Required by Original Bond
The total of secured funding now exceeds $5.2 billion. That includes the $2.5 billion approved by voters in 2018 plus $2.7 billion in other funding secured since then.
The additional funds include grants and matching funds from city, state and federal governments plus other local organizations, such as municipal utility districts. It also includes $87 million in Bond ID Z-07 – the Bond Program Reserve, formerly known as the Flood Resilience Trust.
Commissioners Court allocated this money to backstop bond funding before a massive infusion of funds from the General Land Office and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development in 2022.
HCFCD says it is working on revising costs to reflect inflation and the rising cost of property acquisition since then. However, it appears that HCFCD did not include inflation-adjusted project estimates in the current update.
Dollars Spent vs Dollars Secured
Regardless, we are now at a point in the bond where available cash covers the original estimates. So looking at dollars spent vs. dollars secured gives us a reasonable feel for how close we are to completing flood-bond projects in various watersheds. See the bar graph below.
Compiled by combining 2024 Bond Update Appendix B on Page 10 with spending data obtained separately via FOIA request.See data in table below.
Brays and Greens are more than 80% complete. Five others are more than 50%.
Meanwhile, 15 others are less than 50%. And of those, 10 are less than 25%. The county’s largest watershed, the San Jacinto, is only 19% complete (“spent”).
The graph above does not include Carpenters Bayou. It was an anomaly at 1762%. The 2021 bond update included only half a million dollars for a study there. But HCFCD has spent almost $9 million so far. Including Carpenters in the bar graph distorted the scale and obscured the differences between the other watersheds. However, I did include it in the table below.
Compiled by combining Bond Update Appendix B on Page 10 with spending data obtained via FOIA request.County-wide projects not included.
Next month will mark the sixth anniversary of flood-bond approval. The bond was originally intended to be a 10-year program. So, totaling all these figures, we are about 40% done in 60% of the time. There’s certainly room for improvement on that front.
Projects in some watersheds are stalled while projects in others near completion. Take, for instance, the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and Taylor Gully Projects in the San Jacinto Watershed. The Kingwood Area Drainage Analysis identified them as the top two projects in Kingwood back in 2020.
But not a shovel full of dirt has been turned yet on the Diversion Ditch project. And a $1,000 excavation and removal contract on the Woodridge/Taylor Gully project was terminated last November when only one third complete.
Partisan Changes Negatively Impact Precinct 3
Another thing to look at: changes to projects (Dollar Increases or Decreases; Project Deletions or Additions). While a certain amount of changes are normal when dealing with rough, early estimates, in this case, the changes also reflect a partisan bias.
Harris County has three Democratic commissioners and one Republican – Tom Ramsey in Precinct 3.
Thirty projects affecting the three Democratic Precincts increased by $162.6 million – $54.2 million per precinct on average. But projects in the lone Republican precinct increased only $27 million. Thus, the three Democrats each benefited twice as much from additions as the lone Republican.
Likewise, 12 projects in the three Democratic Precincts decreased by a total of $92.6 million or $30.6 million per precinct on average. But Ramsey’s precinct lost $40.5 million.
Ramsey lost $13.5 million more than he gained.
Ellis, Garcia and Briones each gained about $8 million more than they lost.
When watersheds crossed precinct boundaries, I split dollars evenly among them. For example, if a project increased in value by $10 million and benefited one Republican and one Democratic precinct, I allocated $5 million to each. While that may not be precisely accurate in all cases, more precise data is not readily available.
To see the evolution of the bond fund through various iterations during the last six years, see the Harris County Flood Control District tab on the ReduceFlooding Reports page.
Other Items of Note
I did not include Countywide Expenditures in the calculations above even though they took a large hit. Their decrease shows up in corresponding increases for watershed projects. And I was more interested in how those were skewed.
However, one item definitely deserves future exploration: the $50 million decrease in “Federal Grant Funded Volunteer Home Buyouts.” Typically, the Federal Government grants funds for specific purposes. Where did this money go? The 2024 flood-bond update does not say.
Also of note: HCFCD currently has 20 projects in construction or turnover. The District has spent more than $2 billion in bond and partnership funds out of the $5.2 billion now available.
The latest bond update points out that of 181 original projects, 42 have been completed and closed out.
Equity Being Redefined Again
Separate from the bond update, Commissioners approved an expansion of equity guidelines last week. Item 18 on the agenda discusses an expanded definition of “equity” that will be used to allocate future flood mitigation dollars. It includes three components:
Structural Equity – righting historical wrongs
Procedural Equity – implementing procedures, policies and programs for groups previously not considered.
Socio-emotionally Intelligent Equity – mitigates the impacts of interpersonal, individual, structural, systemic, and institutional racism and sexism.
More news to follow when I figure out how all that will affect flood-control-mitigation dollars which have historically correlated to flood damage more than sexism.
At the very least, the imposition of new metrics on projects will slow down project scoring and implementation. It’s additional overhead burden on already complex processes. But my real fear? More and more of the San Jacinto watershed budget will slip away to other watersheds.
Flood Watch Issued for Much of SE Texas Until Wednesday Evening
7/23/24 at 7PM – The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a flood watch for much of southeast Texas until at least Wednesday evening. They warn to keep storm drains clear of debris from Hurricane Beryl.
NWS already predicts the East Fork San Jacinto to reach the moderate flood stage. Other bayous and channels could follow, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist.
Perfect Setup for Heavy Rains, Flooding
Heavy storms have pummeled the area north of Lake Houston and Lake Conroe for most of the day and are continuing.
A combination of increasing Gulf moisture, lift from an upper level trough over the region, and slow/training storm motions will produce a threat for heavy to excessive rainfall tonight into Wednesday.
Lakes Rapidly Rising
As a result, as of 7 PM, the level of:
The Coastal Water Authority is discharging 18,613 cubic feet per second (CFS) from Lake Houston. And the SJRA is releasing 4801 CFS from Lake Conroe.
SJRA warns that heavy rainfall potential remains in place for the next two to three days. The Lake Conroe outflow amount could possibly increase overnight if additional rain occurs in the watershed, they say.
Lake Conroe will continue to pass through storm water and runoff received in the Upper San Jacinto River Basin until Lake Conroe returns to normal conservation lake level of 201 feet.
Where to Find the Most Current Information
Monitor:
Rainfall Prediction: 3-5 Inches Per Hour Possible
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist had this to say about the flood watch: “Heavy rainfall is currently ongoing over portions of Montgomery County with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over much of the area west of I-45 and north of I-10.”
Ongoing activity should begin to weaken later this evening. However, rainfall amounts over the next 3-5 hours of 2-4 inches in an hour or less will be possible with the heavier storms.
He also expects that we will see thunderstorms that slowly progress inland from the Gulf. These storms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour which is raising the flash flood risk for early Wednesday along and south of the I-10 corridor.
“It is possible that much of this activity could remain near the coast or just offshore, but it is close enough to warrant a close watch,” cautions Lindner. “Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches can be expected over much of the area with amounts of 4-6 inches south of I-10.”
Lindner says he would not be surprised to see an isolated 10-inch amount somewhere given the air mass in place.
Monitor the Harris County Flood Warning System for the most current river/bayou flood conditions near you.
East Fork of the San Jacinto River
Heavy rainfall yesterday and again today will produce a significant rise along the river from above Cleveland to Lake Houston starting on Wednesday and lasting into late this week.
The river will rise above flood stage late Wednesday at FM 1485 and above moderate flood levels on Thursday.
Low lying roads near the river will be impacted and FM 1485 will potentially be overtopped. However, the current forecast for the river is well below levels experienced in May of this year, according to Lindner.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/23/24
2520 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Giant Mercer Basin on Cypress Creek Aiming for Completion This Fall
July 22 2024 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) still aims to complete the giant Mercer Stormwater Detention Basin between FM1960 and Cypress Creek just East of the Hardy Toll Road before the end of this year.
Pictures taken 7/22/24 Show Progress
Compare these pictures of the Mercer Basin in February this year when clearing and construction was just getting started.
Fighting the Elements
All things considered – January floods, a derecho, May floods and Hurricane Beryl – contractors seem to be making good progress. Especially if you consider that I’ve already recorded 57 inches of rain in my gage in the first six and a half months of this year – more than we usually get in a full year.
How Big is It?
The Mercer Site covers 58 acres. It will contain twin, connected, dry-bottom basins totaling 512 acre feet.
One acre roughly equals the size of a football field without end zones. So, 512 acre feet would cover an area that large to a depth of 512 feet. That’s approximately the height of Two Allen Center downtown.
Of course, the basin won’t be 512 feet deep. It will likely be around 8 to 10 feet deep because it covers 58 acres minus room for maintenance roads.
History of Project
Harris County finalized acquisition of the property in August 2023. A $15.4 million grant obtained from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) in 2018 stipulates completion before the end of this year.
Additional funding comes from the 2018 Bond Program, which was approved by Harris County voters on August 25, 2018.
Layout and Location
The two maps below show the layout and location of the project.
Cypress Creek joins Spring Creek before reaching US59.
Construction Details
Features include:
Part of a Bigger Solution
Mercer is one of several stormwater detention basin projects HCFCD is developing in the Cypress Creek watershed.
A regional drainage study for the watershed found that rising floodwaters in Cypress Creek back water up into tributaries and cause flooding there. The tributaries have sufficient stormwater conveyance or drainage capacity. Therefore, stormwater detention basins can help reduce the backwater issue.
The regional drainage study described here recommends nearly 25,000 acre-feet of additional stormwater detention in the watershed.
Mercer by itself won’t help the Lake Houston Area much in a major flood. It’s designed to help primarily homes and businesses in the area which you can see in the photos above.
But every little bit helps.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2024
2519 Days since Hurricane Harvey
2024 Flood-Bond Update Shows Changed, Changing Priorities
July 21, 2024 – Last week, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) quietly shared this year’s flood-bond update with Commissioners Court. The update came during widespread power and internet outages from Hurricane Beryl that limited its visibility.
The flood-bond update details progress on the 2018 Flood Bond for the first time since the last update last October.
Combining the data in this flood-bond update with data from other sources reveals the impact of the County’s political divide and Equity Prioritization Indices. Both have affected projects in the Lake Houston area and Precinct 3 negatively.
But first some good news.
More Partner Funds Now Secured than Required by Original Bond
The total of secured funding now exceeds $5.2 billion. That includes the $2.5 billion approved by voters in 2018 plus $2.7 billion in other funding secured since then.
The additional funds include grants and matching funds from city, state and federal governments plus other local organizations, such as municipal utility districts. It also includes $87 million in Bond ID Z-07 – the Bond Program Reserve, formerly known as the Flood Resilience Trust.
Commissioners Court allocated this money to backstop bond funding before a massive infusion of funds from the General Land Office and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development in 2022.
The total amount now available exceeds total project costs in both the original bond estimate and a slightly revised project list released in a 2021 flood-bond update.
HCFCD says it is working on revising costs to reflect inflation and the rising cost of property acquisition since then. However, it appears that HCFCD did not include inflation-adjusted project estimates in the current update.
Dollars Spent vs Dollars Secured
Regardless, we are now at a point in the bond where available cash covers the original estimates. So looking at dollars spent vs. dollars secured gives us a reasonable feel for how close we are to completing flood-bond projects in various watersheds. See the bar graph below.
Brays and Greens are more than 80% complete. Five others are more than 50%.
Meanwhile, 15 others are less than 50%. And of those, 10 are less than 25%. The county’s largest watershed, the San Jacinto, is only 19% complete (“spent”).
The graph above does not include Carpenters Bayou. It was an anomaly at 1762%. The 2021 bond update included only half a million dollars for a study there. But HCFCD has spent almost $9 million so far. Including Carpenters in the bar graph distorted the scale and obscured the differences between the other watersheds. However, I did include it in the table below.
Next month will mark the sixth anniversary of flood-bond approval. The bond was originally intended to be a 10-year program. So, totaling all these figures, we are about 40% done in 60% of the time. There’s certainly room for improvement on that front.
Projects in some watersheds are stalled while projects in others near completion. Take, for instance, the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and Taylor Gully Projects in the San Jacinto Watershed. The Kingwood Area Drainage Analysis identified them as the top two projects in Kingwood back in 2020.
But not a shovel full of dirt has been turned yet on the Diversion Ditch project. And a $1,000 excavation and removal contract on the Woodridge/Taylor Gully project was terminated last November when only one third complete.
Partisan Changes Negatively Impact Precinct 3
Another thing to look at: changes to projects (Dollar Increases or Decreases; Project Deletions or Additions). While a certain amount of changes are normal when dealing with rough, early estimates, in this case, the changes also reflect a partisan bias.
When calculating the differences, I compared projects by Bond ID in the 2024 flood-bond update to the original bond allocations in 2018.
Harris County has three Democratic commissioners and one Republican – Tom Ramsey in Precinct 3.
When watersheds crossed precinct boundaries, I split dollars evenly among them. For example, if a project increased in value by $10 million and benefited one Republican and one Democratic precinct, I allocated $5 million to each. While that may not be precisely accurate in all cases, more precise data is not readily available.
To see the evolution of the bond fund through various iterations during the last six years, see the Harris County Flood Control District tab on the ReduceFlooding Reports page.
Other Items of Note
I did not include Countywide Expenditures in the calculations above even though they took a large hit. Their decrease shows up in corresponding increases for watershed projects. And I was more interested in how those were skewed.
However, one item definitely deserves future exploration: the $50 million decrease in “Federal Grant Funded Volunteer Home Buyouts.” Typically, the Federal Government grants funds for specific purposes. Where did this money go? The 2024 flood-bond update does not say.
Also of note: HCFCD currently has 20 projects in construction or turnover. The District has spent more than $2 billion in bond and partnership funds out of the $5.2 billion now available.
The latest bond update points out that of 181 original projects, 42 have been completed and closed out.
Equity Being Redefined Again
Separate from the bond update, Commissioners approved an expansion of equity guidelines last week. Item 18 on the agenda discusses an expanded definition of “equity” that will be used to allocate future flood mitigation dollars. It includes three components:
More news to follow when I figure out how all that will affect flood-control-mitigation dollars which have historically correlated to flood damage more than sexism.
At the very least, the imposition of new metrics on projects will slow down project scoring and implementation. It’s additional overhead burden on already complex processes. But my real fear? More and more of the San Jacinto watershed budget will slip away to other watersheds.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/21/2024
2518 Days since Hurricane Harvey