7/7/24, 10:30 AM – The National Weather Service (NWS) and FEMA have issued a tropical storm warning that includes Houston, Kingwood and Spring.
Beryl is moving closer to the Texas Coast and turning a little more northward. Although it has not yet re-intensified into a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center predicts it will, and that it could even turn into a Category 2 before landfall. The center will likely pass near the west side of Houston.
NWS and FEMA have also issued a flood watch that will last until 7AM on Tuesday, July 9. It includes most of SE Texas.
Beryl position at 8:30 AM CDT. A turn toward the NNW and N is likely today before Beryl reaches the coast.
Tropical Storm Force Winds Expected in North Houston Tonight
Tropical storm force winds could arrive this evening. The high winds will spread inland toward the I-10 corridor by early Monday morning. They should reach the HWY 105 corridor by sunrise Monday.
So authorities urge you to finish hurricane prep as soon as possible.
Re-Intensification into Hurricane Possible
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “Beryl is starting to move into more favorable conditions for development and if/when an inner core forms…more rapid intensification will be possible.”
NHC forecasts that Beryl will make landfall at 85mph. However, they also say that winds could reach 100mph.
In inland Harris County, winds could average 45-55 MPH with gusts to 80 MPH.
“There remains the potential for fairly significant intensification of Beryl in the last 12 hours prior to landfall.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Prolonged Power Outages Predicted
Lindner warns the public to be prepared for extended power outages. Widespread power outages are now likely over a large part of the area on Monday.
Downed trees and tree limbs as well as damage to roofs, windows, etc. will all be possible.
Centerpoint issued a press release saying that it is already mobilizing crews.
All outdoor objects should be safely secured by this evening in the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.
Tropical storm force winds will reach the coast this evening. They will spread inland toward the I-10 corridor by early Monday morning and reach the HWY 105 corridor by sunrise Monday.
Excessive Rainfall and Flooding Potential
Widespread rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches are likely along and to the right of the track of Beryl, with isolated higher amounts under bands where training occurs. Banding may continue into Monday night and possibly Tuesday.
The heaviest rainfall will likely be west of I-45 on Monday. High rainfall rates in bands will produce urban flooding and rapid rises on area creeks and bayous.
Some flooding of creeks, bayous and rivers will be possible with the forecasted rainfall. River responses will continue into mid- to late week.
FEMA’s flood watch lasts through Tuesday morning. It says, “Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.”
Expect street flooding, as well as rises along area rivers, creeks, streams, and bayous.
Other Dangers Near Coast
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) cautions that there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine Pass. That includes Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.
NHC also say that rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water.
Finally, NHC says that a few tornadoes could occur along the middle and upper Texas Coast through tonight, and across eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Monday.
Lake Report
At this moment, Lake Houston is releasing 9,626 CFS…the most the lake’s old gates can release at one time.
Lake Conroe is not pre-releasing any water; the lake is currently 9 inches below its normal level. The SJRA’s models predict that should be enough to handle the expected rainfall north of the lake. Let’s hope they are right.
7/6/24 – As of 7 AM on Saturday morning, Beryl was centered in the Gulf of Mexico. Once a powerful Cat 5 hurricane, the storm emerged from its trek across the Yucatan as a tropical storm. However, it will likely re-intensify into a hurricane just before making landfall. The storm is about to enter an area of low wind sheer and high water temperatures.
Likely Landfall Near Matagorda Bay
According to the National Hurricane Center, Beryl will most likely come ashore between Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi. But all of Houston is now in the cone of uncertainty. That means we have an equal chance of taking a direct hit from the storm.
Heavy Rain Threat
Hurricane watches and storm surge warnings are up for most of the Texas Coast up to High Island. But the most likely impact in the Lake Houston Area will be heavy rains. At this hour, the National Weather Service predicts 4-8 inches. But Jeff Lindner, the Harris County Meteorologist warned that isolated totals up to 15 inches are possible. That’s as much as the area north of us received in the early May flood of this year.
Overall, NWS says we have a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall in the next five days.
Flash Flood Threat
Arrival Time in Houston Area
We should begin to feel the effects of the storm Sunday evening.
Rain from the storm could linger for a day or two as Beryl becomes a tropical depression and the center of the storm curves north of us before heading to the northeast.
Inundation Areas
NOAA issued this map for Harris County. It shows possible areas of inundation. NOAA urged people in affected areas to follow evacuation warnings.
Lakes Not Being Lowered at this Hour
At this hour (9AM Saturday), the SJRA is not lowering Lake Conroe. Nor is the Coastal Water Authority lowering Lake Houston. However, the City of Houston did issue a warning yesterday afternoon that it might lower Lake Houston.
The good news: there’s little chance that we will experience tropical storm force winds this far north.
For the Latest Updates
For the latest watches and warnings associated with Beryl, consult the National Hurricane Center website. They update it every few hours. And the next few hours will be critical. There’s still a chance that the storm could shift more toward Houston.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/6/24 based on information from NHC, NWS and Harris County.
2503 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/20240706-Beryl-7.6.24.jpg?fit=1100%2C786&ssl=17861100adminadmin2024-07-06 09:28:122024-07-06 09:28:13Beryl Update, Saturday AM
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) spending data obtained via a Freedom of Information Act Request shows that countywide:
Spending now tops $2 billion since Hurricane Harvey back in 2017
It modestly rebounded between the first and second quarters of this year
More money is now going to land acquisition and construction compared to other phases of the project lifecycle, while less money is going to upfront studies
On a per watershed basis, watersheds with a majority of Low-to-Moderate Income (LMI) residents still get far more than those with a minority of LMI residents.
Spending in the San Jacinto Watershed continues to lag despite high flood risk
Spending has fallen off a cliff in some watersheds.
For details, see below.
Modest Rebound Compared to 1Q24
The chart below shows HCFCD spending in 27 quarters since Hurricane Harvey. It shows a dramatic uptick between 2018 and 2021, followed by an even more dramatic decline through the first quarter of 2023. Since then, spending has averaged slightly more than $60 million per quarter, about half of the peak in 2021.
What accounts for the lower totals recently?
Changes in leadership and personnel turnover at HCFCD
Numerous changes in “equity” allocation formulas that required reprioritization of projects
Lengthy delays at Harris County Community Services involving more than $750 million in U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development funds.
COVID
Inflation during COVID forcing a re-evaluation of the Bond project list
The 2018 Flood Bond was considered a 10-year project. We are now almost 6 years into the bond, which was approved on the first anniversary of Harvey, but the money is only about 40% spent. That means projects are moving slower than originally anticipated. And that gives inflation a chance to gobble up a higher percentage of them.
More Money Now Going to Land Acquisition and Construction
On a positive note, more projects are moving off the drawing boards and into construction. You can see this trend most clearly by comparing two pie charts that show spending broken down by project phase. The first shows spending since Harvey and the second shows spending during the last quarter.
Looking back at the last 27 quarters, HCFCD spent 76% of its funds on right-of-way acquisition and construction. But during the last quarter, those combined percentages jumped to 85% – up 9%.
Meanwhile, feasibility studies and preliminary engineering reviews fell from 8% to 3% during the comparable periods.
Perhaps we’re starting to mitigate more than ruminate.
Since HarveyDuring second quarter this year
The following table may make it easier for you to compare percentages if you are viewing this on a phone.
Spending in Watersheds with Majority LMI Populations
The percentage of LMI residents in a watershed helps determine eligibility for flood-mitigation grants from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Harris County has 23 watersheds. Of those, 8 have a majority of LMI residents.
Regardless, since Harvey, those 8 received almost as much money as the other 15 put together.
Since Harvey
Looking only at the last quarter, that trend has moderated somewhat.
Second quarter this year only
But on a per watershed basis, the 8 LMI watersheds still each receive an average of 5.5% of the budget. Meanwhile, the 15 other watersheds each receive an average of 3.7%.
This is largely a function of the weighting given to LMI-majority projects in Harris County’s equity prioritization project scoring formula.
Spending by Watershed: A Study in Extremes
Comparing bar graphs of spending by watershed shows extreme differences between the highs and lows that are getting wider.
Since Harvey, difference between high and low equaled 100 to 1.
Note also the disappearance of the middle ground.
During second quarter, difference between high and low equaled 375 to 1.
During the second quarter, the entire San Jacinto Watershed – the county’s largest – received less than $400,000 of support…while moving up from 13th place to 11th.
Harris County watersheds in the upper San Jacinto River Basin include Spring, Cypress, Willow, Little Cypress, Luce and San Jacinto. They all funnel through the Lake Houston Area.
Since Harvey, they have received about 20% of HCFCD spending. But they drain an area about 50% larger than where the rest of the other 80% of the money went.
And as we saw in May, that can have a huge impact on flood damage.
Tropical Storm Warning, Flood Watch for Inland Harris County
7/7/24, 10:30 AM – The National Weather Service (NWS) and FEMA have issued a tropical storm warning that includes Houston, Kingwood and Spring.
Beryl is moving closer to the Texas Coast and turning a little more northward. Although it has not yet re-intensified into a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center predicts it will, and that it could even turn into a Category 2 before landfall. The center will likely pass near the west side of Houston.
NWS and FEMA have also issued a flood watch that will last until 7AM on Tuesday, July 9. It includes most of SE Texas.
Tropical Storm Force Winds Expected in North Houston Tonight
Tropical storm force winds could arrive this evening. The high winds will spread inland toward the I-10 corridor by early Monday morning. They should reach the HWY 105 corridor by sunrise Monday.
So authorities urge you to finish hurricane prep as soon as possible.
Re-Intensification into Hurricane Possible
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “Beryl is starting to move into more favorable conditions for development and if/when an inner core forms…more rapid intensification will be possible.”
NHC forecasts that Beryl will make landfall at 85mph. However, they also say that winds could reach 100mph.
In inland Harris County, winds could average 45-55 MPH with gusts to 80 MPH.
Prolonged Power Outages Predicted
Lindner warns the public to be prepared for extended power outages. Widespread power outages are now likely over a large part of the area on Monday.
Downed trees and tree limbs as well as damage to roofs, windows, etc. will all be possible.
Centerpoint issued a press release saying that it is already mobilizing crews.
All outdoor objects should be safely secured by this evening in the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.
Tropical storm force winds will reach the coast this evening. They will spread inland toward the I-10 corridor by early Monday morning and reach the HWY 105 corridor by sunrise Monday.
Excessive Rainfall and Flooding Potential
Widespread rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches are likely along and to the right of the track of Beryl, with isolated higher amounts under bands where training occurs. Banding may continue into Monday night and possibly Tuesday.
The heaviest rainfall will likely be west of I-45 on Monday. High rainfall rates in bands will produce urban flooding and rapid rises on area creeks and bayous.
Some flooding of creeks, bayous and rivers will be possible with the forecasted rainfall. River responses will continue into mid- to late week.
FEMA’s flood watch lasts through Tuesday morning. It says, “Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.”
Expect street flooding, as well as rises along area rivers, creeks, streams, and bayous.
Other Dangers Near Coast
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) cautions that there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine Pass. That includes Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.
Expect 4-6 feet of surge in Matagorda Bay and 3-5 feet in Galveston Bay.
NHC also say that rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water.
Finally, NHC says that a few tornadoes could occur along the middle and upper Texas Coast through tonight, and across eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Monday.
Lake Report
At this moment, Lake Houston is releasing 9,626 CFS…the most the lake’s old gates can release at one time.
Lake Conroe is not pre-releasing any water; the lake is currently 9 inches below its normal level. The SJRA’s models predict that should be enough to handle the expected rainfall north of the lake. Let’s hope they are right.
For the Most Up-to-the-Minute Information,..
Monitor what’s happening near you on the Harris County Flood Warning System.
Track the status of the storm at the National Hurricane Center website.
The National Weather Service is the most reliable source for local weather information and warnings. It also predicts when flood peaks will arrive.
To monitor the status of Lake Conroe levels/releases, visit the San Jacinto River Authority website.
To monitor the status of Lake Houston levels/releases, visit the Coastal Water Authority website.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 10AM on 7/7/24
2504 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Beryl Update, Saturday AM
7/6/24 – As of 7 AM on Saturday morning, Beryl was centered in the Gulf of Mexico. Once a powerful Cat 5 hurricane, the storm emerged from its trek across the Yucatan as a tropical storm. However, it will likely re-intensify into a hurricane just before making landfall. The storm is about to enter an area of low wind sheer and high water temperatures.
Likely Landfall Near Matagorda Bay
According to the National Hurricane Center, Beryl will most likely come ashore between Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi. But all of Houston is now in the cone of uncertainty. That means we have an equal chance of taking a direct hit from the storm.
Heavy Rain Threat
Hurricane watches and storm surge warnings are up for most of the Texas Coast up to High Island. But the most likely impact in the Lake Houston Area will be heavy rains. At this hour, the National Weather Service predicts 4-8 inches. But Jeff Lindner, the Harris County Meteorologist warned that isolated totals up to 15 inches are possible. That’s as much as the area north of us received in the early May flood of this year.
Overall, NWS says we have a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall in the next five days.
Flash Flood Threat
Arrival Time in Houston Area
We should begin to feel the effects of the storm Sunday evening.
Rain from the storm could linger for a day or two as Beryl becomes a tropical depression and the center of the storm curves north of us before heading to the northeast.
Inundation Areas
NOAA issued this map for Harris County. It shows possible areas of inundation. NOAA urged people in affected areas to follow evacuation warnings.
Lakes Not Being Lowered at this Hour
At this hour (9AM Saturday), the SJRA is not lowering Lake Conroe. Nor is the Coastal Water Authority lowering Lake Houston. However, the City of Houston did issue a warning yesterday afternoon that it might lower Lake Houston.
The good news: there’s little chance that we will experience tropical storm force winds this far north.
For the Latest Updates
For the latest watches and warnings associated with Beryl, consult the National Hurricane Center website. They update it every few hours. And the next few hours will be critical. There’s still a chance that the storm could shift more toward Houston.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/6/24 based on information from NHC, NWS and Harris County.
2503 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Where HCFCD Spending Goes
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) spending data obtained via a Freedom of Information Act Request shows that countywide:
For details, see below.
Modest Rebound Compared to 1Q24
The chart below shows HCFCD spending in 27 quarters since Hurricane Harvey. It shows a dramatic uptick between 2018 and 2021, followed by an even more dramatic decline through the first quarter of 2023. Since then, spending has averaged slightly more than $60 million per quarter, about half of the peak in 2021.
What accounts for the lower totals recently?
The 2018 Flood Bond was considered a 10-year project. We are now almost 6 years into the bond, which was approved on the first anniversary of Harvey, but the money is only about 40% spent. That means projects are moving slower than originally anticipated. And that gives inflation a chance to gobble up a higher percentage of them.
More Money Now Going to Land Acquisition and Construction
On a positive note, more projects are moving off the drawing boards and into construction. You can see this trend most clearly by comparing two pie charts that show spending broken down by project phase. The first shows spending since Harvey and the second shows spending during the last quarter.
Looking back at the last 27 quarters, HCFCD spent 76% of its funds on right-of-way acquisition and construction. But during the last quarter, those combined percentages jumped to 85% – up 9%.
Meanwhile, feasibility studies and preliminary engineering reviews fell from 8% to 3% during the comparable periods.
Perhaps we’re starting to mitigate more than ruminate.
The following table may make it easier for you to compare percentages if you are viewing this on a phone.
Spending in Watersheds with Majority LMI Populations
The percentage of LMI residents in a watershed helps determine eligibility for flood-mitigation grants from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Harris County has 23 watersheds. Of those, 8 have a majority of LMI residents.
Regardless, since Harvey, those 8 received almost as much money as the other 15 put together.
Looking only at the last quarter, that trend has moderated somewhat.
But on a per watershed basis, the 8 LMI watersheds still each receive an average of 5.5% of the budget. Meanwhile, the 15 other watersheds each receive an average of 3.7%.
This is largely a function of the weighting given to LMI-majority projects in Harris County’s equity prioritization project scoring formula.
Spending by Watershed: A Study in Extremes
Comparing bar graphs of spending by watershed shows extreme differences between the highs and lows that are getting wider.
Note also the disappearance of the middle ground.
During the second quarter, the entire San Jacinto Watershed – the county’s largest – received less than $400,000 of support…while moving up from 13th place to 11th.
Harris County watersheds in the upper San Jacinto River Basin include Spring, Cypress, Willow, Little Cypress, Luce and San Jacinto. They all funnel through the Lake Houston Area.
Since Harvey, they have received about 20% of HCFCD spending. But they drain an area about 50% larger than where the rest of the other 80% of the money went.
And as we saw in May, that can have a huge impact on flood damage.
I wish HCFCD spending flowed to the Lake Houston Area as fast as the water.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/5/2024
2502 Days since Hurricane Harvey