8/4/24 – Yesterday’s post about power disruptions due to “tree touches” drew of flood of responses from all parts of the Lake Houston Area. Many were eager to meet with CenterPoint face-to-face and discuss grievances going back decades.
Among the many responses, one stood out. Chris Bloch, a Bear Branch Trail Association (BBTA) board member, provided a detailed list of problems that his association encounters when trying to work with the company.
I have lightly edited Bloch’s letter for brevity without changing any thoughts. It shows the lengths our unpaid volunteers go to in order to serve their community. I took all photos below today on BBTA property to illustrate the issues Bloch talks about.
Bob,
The Bear Branch Trail Association property has many power line easements crossing it. In each of the last three years, CenterPoint has had contractors on BBTA property cutting back vegetation. I do not know about other trail associations, but CenterPoint has actively tried to manage their right of way (ROW) through BBTA property.
In all cases, CenterPoint contractors cut back vegetation at a greater width than the CenterPoint easement. We have not objected to that practice as long as it is within reason. But we have encountered several other persistent problems.
Not Removing Debris
In numerous cases, we have identified trees on BBTA property leaning toward power line easements. In some cases, CenterPoint, has taken down the trees, but it is their policy not to remove the debris. We have had to bear the cost of removal or leave it to rot. If the tree is in a highly visible area, we pay to have it removed.
CenterPoint easement through BBTA property behind the Kings Forest Pool. Note debris left behind and tree still leaning over pole.
Working Near Power Lines
At other times, CenterPoint feels BBTA should hire contractors to remove trees near power lines. BBTA contractors are highly qualified and professional, but they often refuse to remove trees near power lines. They fear for their safety. (See photo above.) As we work through these issues, delays can expose the public to higher risk of power outages.
Taking Out the Trash
We also have had a consistent problem with CenterPoint contractors leaving ROW debris on BBTA property.
We document these instances with photos and complain to CenterPoint. They respond by claiming their contractors should have removed the debris.
CenterPoint usually asks us to document locations. Eventually contractors may return to remove debris. But…
We do not feel we should have to supervise CenterPoint contractors. CenterPoint should have their own inspectors monitor contractors’ work.
Chris Bloch, BBTA Board Member
BBTA trail behind Kings Forest Pool
Homeowner Reporting Issues
We actively monitor power line rights of way to identify problems. And we notify CenterPoint when we find them. We feel it’s part of our responsibility. But their own contractors do not seem to report issues to CenterPoint.
And unfortunately, we do not see all the problems. Many originate on adjoining homeowner properties. In my opinion, nearly half of power line damages start there. I suspect the vast majority of homeowners do not report problem trees. And if they did, they would likely not volunteer to have trees removed at their own expense.
Whose Job Is It?
CenterPoint seems to avoid removing trees that threaten power lines if they are not on the CenterPoint ROW. This contributes to the number of trees that fall on power lines.
Giving Notice
And CenterPoint rarely advises us when accessing their right of way through our trails.
CenterPoint often uses BBTA trails to access downed power lines in many locations. (See below.) Their heavy equipment has damaged trails, left deep ruts and created unsightly holes in underbrush. In one case, they even ran over saplings newly planted by students.
Equipment cut across trail and through underbrush to get to Centerpoint easement.
Refusing to Pay for Most Damages
But CenterPoint has refused to pay to repair the damage. They say their out of state contractors are responsible.
BBTA has threatened to sue CenterPoint, but eventually BBTA usually bears the cost of replacing damaged trails.
To reduce this chronic problem, we have now upgraded our specifications for trail repairs to make trails stronger.
In the past, when CenterPoint damaged trees on BBTA property, they donated replacement trees. That’s good. We hope they will respond the same way this time.
Better Management Approach Needed…All Around
Damage to power infrastructure can be much better managed. But it will take a more cooperative approach between CenterPoint, Trail Associations, and Homeowner Associations.
CenterPoint isn’t the only utility that we occasionally grapple with. Comcast damaged greenbelts, too. And it is our understanding that Optimum, Brightspeed and AT&T all plan fiberoptic installations in the near future.
We look forward to resolving these conflicts in a way that benefits all parties.
Chris Bloch
Bear Branch Trail Association Board Member
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/4/24
2532 days since Hurricane Harveyand 27 since Beryl
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20240804-RJR_3750.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2024-08-04 20:25:092024-08-04 20:43:03Many Eager to Discuss CenterPoint Power Outage Issues
8/3/24 – Yesterday was a start. Kingwood residents and political leaders met in several areas hard hit by Hurricane Beryl to discuss ways to improve recovery efforts. The idea: to start a dialog about steps that Houston Public Works, CenterPoint, community leaders, and residents can take together to reduce disruptions from future flooding and power outages.
Connectedness of Issues and Domino Effects
The recovery discussions took place on streets still clogged with debris that were near power line corridors, greenbelt trails, a school and two sewage “lift stations.”
Centerpoint representative addresses group including Houston City Council Members Fred Flickinger (center) and Twila Carter (right); State Rep. Charles Cunningham (upper right); and Dee Price, KSA President (striped shirt).
Lift stations pump sewage uphill to treatment plants. When treatment plants are downhill, gravity does the work – a much more reliable solution. Without power, or when flooded, sewage from the lift stations can back up into people’s homes and overflow.
The City of Houston has hundreds of such lift stations. And during Beryl, Houston Public works shuttled backup generators back and forth between them. They tried to buy enough time to keep the lift stations from backing up and overflowing.
Unfortunately, the shuttling didn’t work in parts of Woodstream Village. There, residents talked about backed up sewage flowing from homes into streets and then Lake Houston.
Chris Kalman, Woodstream resident, talked about how problems are becoming progressively worse. “Centerpoint was awfully quiet when asked about repeated power outages in this area going on 18-plus years now. No real answer.”
The solution, according to a Public Works spokesperson Greg Eyerly, is to buy more generators. But that could take years in a city struggling with other urgent budget issues. And recovery can’t wait.
Cambio (left), State Rep. Cunningham (center) and Eyerly (right) discussing lift stations in Woodstream.
Preventing/Reducing Outages
Related recovery discussions about preventing or reducing power outages took place throughout the morning. According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s final 2004 report on Utility Vegetation Management, “tree touches” are generally cited as the single largest cause of electric power outages. They occur when trees, or portions of trees, grow or fall into overhead power lines.
In Kingwood, trees have grown up under or around power lines in many places. In fact, many residents have commented that if not for recent Beryl-related trimming, they would’t even have known power lines were there.
Trees touching power lines near Deerwood Elementary where group first gathered yesterday.Power to nearby residents was out for 9.5 days after Beryl.
Unfortunately, from a recovery/electric reliability point of view, Kingwood is in a region that experiences frequent high winds and heavy rainfall. The heavy rainfall supports fast growth of tall trees. And frequent high winds push those trees into power lines.
So another major focus of recovery discussions included:
CenterPoint vegetation management practices, especially maintenance intervals (which they avoided disclosing)
Trees that fall from trail association property onto CenterPoint power lines
Removal of debris that can clog storm sewers
Who is responsible for what
How one group’s performance or lack thereof can affect electric reliability and related issues for others.
Need for a New Approach Involving Trail and Community Associations
At-Large City Council Member Twila Carter said, “CenterPoint must have a collective conversation, resulting in a plan with KSA, the HOAs and Trail Associations to address maintenance. The thoughts of “In the past, that’s the way we’ve always done it,” or “the way it’s always been” no longer work for this community. We need to address the community as it is today, not how it was planned 50 years ago.”
District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger said, “A meeting between the trail associations and CenterPoint will make a significant difference. It was the best thing to come out of today.”
Flickinger was referring to a discussion with Dee Price, KSA President. Price agreed to set up a meeting with Kingwood trail associations, community associations, CenterPoint and the council members.
Flickinger continued, “There has to be significantly more aggressive vegetation management in the future.”
Kaaren Cambio, Dan Crenshaw’s assistant, explained how the homeowner and trail associations around Lake Conroe regularly inspect resident properties for trees and branches that threaten power lines. She said they send letters to residents requiring them to take down such trees or trim them back.
CenterPoint can trim back limbs and trees that encroach on their easements. But CenterPoint cannot take down trees on private property. That includes trail association property. So recovery needs to be a cooperative effort.
Chris Bloch, a long-time Bear Branch Trail Association (BBTA) Board Member, was not at the meeting, but observed, “The number of trees and limbs that fell during Beryl was easily 2X+ what we had during Ike. I attribute this to two summers of drought which stressed the trees and then an exceptionally wet spring.”
Costs of Burying Power Lines Not Clear
Flickinger also said, “I’m pushing for more underground electrical lines. I want to see the analysis of the costs. I know it’s expensive, but I believe we are paying for it incrementally every time there is a storm.” Flickinger cited lost wages, the cost of backup generators, debris cleanup, and more.
CenterPoint responded that the costs of burying wires are location specific and the costs of repairing underground cables, when cut, are much higher. However, CenterPoint offered no specifics about the cost of burying power lines in Kingwood.
Impacts on the Elderly and Ill
Cambio also talked extensively about the impact of power outages on hospitals plus nursing and retirement homes.
Many operate in multi-story buildings. Elderly in wheel chairs rely on elevators. But without power, they are trapped. They can’t get up or down stairs to get to doctors. Nor do they have power for dialysis, breathing machines, etc.
Kingwood Hospital had a backup generator. But, reportedly, it was insufficient to power the entire facility.
Cambio recommended changes to state law, requiring hospitals, nursing homes and retirement homes to have sufficient backup-generator power to operate elevators and air conditioning.
The only problem: According to Chris Coulter of Texas Power Agents, such backup generators require regular maintenance. They also require oil and fuel, such as gasoline, which may be hard to find during widespread power outages. After Beryl, the lines I found at functioning gasoline stations stretched for more than a half mile.
Voluntary Best Management Practices May Not Be Enough
I asked Coulter, who was not at yesterday’s roving recovery meeting, for recommendations about how to improve electric reliability.
He immediately focused on vegetation management and tied the growth of vegetation over time with the increasing frequency of power outages.
The FERC report cited above says that utility vegetation management programs represent one of the largest recurring maintenance expenses for electric utility companies in North America.
Coulter jokingly characterized companies like CenterPoint as “tree trimming companies that happen to distribute power.”
“The odds are that every single electric customer in the US and Canada has, at one time or another, experienced a sustained electric outage as a direct result of a tree and power line conflict.”
This FERC report is well written and easy to understand. It makes dozens of common-sense recommendations to improve electric reliability. I recommend it.
Coulter also referred me to NERC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. NERC describes itself as “… an international regulatory authority whose mission is to assure the effective and efficient reduction of risks to the reliability and security of the grid.”
Coulter said that NERC rules recognize different sizes of lines in regard to vegetation management requirements. Heavy fines apply if vegetation is ignored around lines that carry more than 100 kV.
However, lines that carry less power often get neglected – something that hampers recovery.
Coulter said that many of his Kingwood customers told him about seeing several such lines for the first time after Beryl. They didn’t even know the lines were there because they were so badly overgrown!
Said Coulter, “The NERC rules are very specific about frequency and minimum vegetation clearance distances for larger transmission (above 100 kV). Fines are steep so the utilities pay close attention and abide by the rules. However, Kingwood has a large spiderweb of distribution lines that are below that bright-line designation.”
Perhaps the fines need to apply to smaller power lines.
Next Step: Broaden the Discussion
Dee Price is reaching out to trail and community associations to set up a meeting about vegetation management. It will also involve our elected representatives, CenterPoint and Houston Public Works.
At a minimum, I came away from yesterday’s discussions with a feeling that we need to:
Raise awareness of vegetation management issues within the community
Handle those on private property that could affect electric lines by ourselves
Report problems on or near CenterPoint easements that they may not be aware of.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/3/24
2531 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 26 since Beryl
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20240802-RJR_3715.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2024-08-03 17:43:442024-08-03 19:23:45Planning a Better, Faster Recovery from the Next Storm
8/2/24 5PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued an advisory about Potential Tropical Cyclone 4. It affects people on the west coast of Florida for now. Since yesterday, models have come into closer alignment. There is now a higher degree of certainty that the PTC4 will track up the west coast of Florida, then cut east around Tampa and emerge into the Atlantic.
Current Status and Forecast
Land interaction with Cuba has limited strengthening of the storm today. But by 2PM Saturday, it should emerge into the eastern Gulf and intensify into a tropical storm before making landfall.
Maximum sustained winds are currently at 30 MPH, but will accelerate Saturday and Sunday.
NHC forecasts a 40-50% probability that the Florida’s western coast will see tropical storm force winds (one minute average >= 39MPH). The earliest arrival time on the southern tip of Florida is 8 AM Saturday 8/3/24.
So far, the tropical wave has not yet reached tropical storm force anywhere in the Atlantic or Caribbean. However, tropical storm watches and warnings are up for the entire western coast of Florida.
NOAA’s latest satellite imagery shows the storm centered over Cuba at 21:40 Z on 8/2/24.
PTC4’s position over Cuba as of 4:40 CDT.
Up to a Foot of Rain and 4 Feet of Storm Surge
NHC expects tropical storm conditions to follow the storm up the eastern seaboard through next Wednesday. They also warn of life-threatening storm surge (2-4 feet) and coastal flooding from Georgia to North Carolina next week. Finally, they warn of isolated river flooding.
Expect rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning.
Next Storm Name Is Debby
This storm should become “Debby.” Chris had a short life and veered into northern Mexico as Beryl was moving toward Houston.
For the time being, people in the Houston area can breathe easier. But the Atlantic hurricane season is just starting to heat up. It will peak on September 10.
Many Eager to Discuss CenterPoint Power Outage Issues
8/4/24 – Yesterday’s post about power disruptions due to “tree touches” drew of flood of responses from all parts of the Lake Houston Area. Many were eager to meet with CenterPoint face-to-face and discuss grievances going back decades.
Among the many responses, one stood out. Chris Bloch, a Bear Branch Trail Association (BBTA) board member, provided a detailed list of problems that his association encounters when trying to work with the company.
I have lightly edited Bloch’s letter for brevity without changing any thoughts. It shows the lengths our unpaid volunteers go to in order to serve their community. I took all photos below today on BBTA property to illustrate the issues Bloch talks about.
Bob,
The Bear Branch Trail Association property has many power line easements crossing it. In each of the last three years, CenterPoint has had contractors on BBTA property cutting back vegetation. I do not know about other trail associations, but CenterPoint has actively tried to manage their right of way (ROW) through BBTA property.
In all cases, CenterPoint contractors cut back vegetation at a greater width than the CenterPoint easement. We have not objected to that practice as long as it is within reason. But we have encountered several other persistent problems.
Not Removing Debris
In numerous cases, we have identified trees on BBTA property leaning toward power line easements. In some cases, CenterPoint, has taken down the trees, but it is their policy not to remove the debris. We have had to bear the cost of removal or leave it to rot. If the tree is in a highly visible area, we pay to have it removed.
Working Near Power Lines
At other times, CenterPoint feels BBTA should hire contractors to remove trees near power lines. BBTA contractors are highly qualified and professional, but they often refuse to remove trees near power lines. They fear for their safety. (See photo above.) As we work through these issues, delays can expose the public to higher risk of power outages.
Taking Out the Trash
We also have had a consistent problem with CenterPoint contractors leaving ROW debris on BBTA property.
We document these instances with photos and complain to CenterPoint. They respond by claiming their contractors should have removed the debris.
CenterPoint usually asks us to document locations. Eventually contractors may return to remove debris. But…
Homeowner Reporting Issues
We actively monitor power line rights of way to identify problems. And we notify CenterPoint when we find them. We feel it’s part of our responsibility. But their own contractors do not seem to report issues to CenterPoint.
And unfortunately, we do not see all the problems. Many originate on adjoining homeowner properties. In my opinion, nearly half of power line damages start there. I suspect the vast majority of homeowners do not report problem trees. And if they did, they would likely not volunteer to have trees removed at their own expense.
Whose Job Is It?
CenterPoint seems to avoid removing trees that threaten power lines if they are not on the CenterPoint ROW. This contributes to the number of trees that fall on power lines.
Giving Notice
And CenterPoint rarely advises us when accessing their right of way through our trails.
CenterPoint often uses BBTA trails to access downed power lines in many locations. (See below.) Their heavy equipment has damaged trails, left deep ruts and created unsightly holes in underbrush. In one case, they even ran over saplings newly planted by students.
Refusing to Pay for Most Damages
But CenterPoint has refused to pay to repair the damage. They say their out of state contractors are responsible.
BBTA has threatened to sue CenterPoint, but eventually BBTA usually bears the cost of replacing damaged trails.
To reduce this chronic problem, we have now upgraded our specifications for trail repairs to make trails stronger.
In the past, when CenterPoint damaged trees on BBTA property, they donated replacement trees. That’s good. We hope they will respond the same way this time.
Better Management Approach Needed…All Around
Damage to power infrastructure can be much better managed. But it will take a more cooperative approach between CenterPoint, Trail Associations, and Homeowner Associations.
CenterPoint isn’t the only utility that we occasionally grapple with. Comcast damaged greenbelts, too. And it is our understanding that Optimum, Brightspeed and AT&T all plan fiberoptic installations in the near future.
We look forward to resolving these conflicts in a way that benefits all parties.
Chris Bloch
Bear Branch Trail Association Board Member
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/4/24
2532 days since Hurricane Harvey and 27 since Beryl
Planning a Better, Faster Recovery from the Next Storm
8/3/24 – Yesterday was a start. Kingwood residents and political leaders met in several areas hard hit by Hurricane Beryl to discuss ways to improve recovery efforts. The idea: to start a dialog about steps that Houston Public Works, CenterPoint, community leaders, and residents can take together to reduce disruptions from future flooding and power outages.
Connectedness of Issues and Domino Effects
The recovery discussions took place on streets still clogged with debris that were near power line corridors, greenbelt trails, a school and two sewage “lift stations.”
Lift stations pump sewage uphill to treatment plants. When treatment plants are downhill, gravity does the work – a much more reliable solution. Without power, or when flooded, sewage from the lift stations can back up into people’s homes and overflow.
The City of Houston has hundreds of such lift stations. And during Beryl, Houston Public works shuttled backup generators back and forth between them. They tried to buy enough time to keep the lift stations from backing up and overflowing.
Unfortunately, the shuttling didn’t work in parts of Woodstream Village. There, residents talked about backed up sewage flowing from homes into streets and then Lake Houston.
The solution, according to a Public Works spokesperson Greg Eyerly, is to buy more generators. But that could take years in a city struggling with other urgent budget issues. And recovery can’t wait.
Preventing/Reducing Outages
Related recovery discussions about preventing or reducing power outages took place throughout the morning. According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s final 2004 report on Utility Vegetation Management, “tree touches” are generally cited as the single largest cause of electric power outages. They occur when trees, or portions of trees, grow or fall into overhead power lines.
In Kingwood, trees have grown up under or around power lines in many places. In fact, many residents have commented that if not for recent Beryl-related trimming, they would’t even have known power lines were there.
Unfortunately, from a recovery/electric reliability point of view, Kingwood is in a region that experiences frequent high winds and heavy rainfall. The heavy rainfall supports fast growth of tall trees. And frequent high winds push those trees into power lines.
So another major focus of recovery discussions included:
Need for a New Approach Involving Trail and Community Associations
At-Large City Council Member Twila Carter said, “CenterPoint must have a collective conversation, resulting in a plan with KSA, the HOAs and Trail Associations to address maintenance. The thoughts of “In the past, that’s the way we’ve always done it,” or “the way it’s always been” no longer work for this community. We need to address the community as it is today, not how it was planned 50 years ago.”
District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger said, “A meeting between the trail associations and CenterPoint will make a significant difference. It was the best thing to come out of today.”
Flickinger was referring to a discussion with Dee Price, KSA President. Price agreed to set up a meeting with Kingwood trail associations, community associations, CenterPoint and the council members.
Flickinger continued, “There has to be significantly more aggressive vegetation management in the future.”
Kaaren Cambio, Dan Crenshaw’s assistant, explained how the homeowner and trail associations around Lake Conroe regularly inspect resident properties for trees and branches that threaten power lines. She said they send letters to residents requiring them to take down such trees or trim them back.
CenterPoint can trim back limbs and trees that encroach on their easements. But CenterPoint cannot take down trees on private property. That includes trail association property. So recovery needs to be a cooperative effort.
Chris Bloch, a long-time Bear Branch Trail Association (BBTA) Board Member, was not at the meeting, but observed, “The number of trees and limbs that fell during Beryl was easily 2X+ what we had during Ike. I attribute this to two summers of drought which stressed the trees and then an exceptionally wet spring.”
Costs of Burying Power Lines Not Clear
Flickinger also said, “I’m pushing for more underground electrical lines. I want to see the analysis of the costs. I know it’s expensive, but I believe we are paying for it incrementally every time there is a storm.” Flickinger cited lost wages, the cost of backup generators, debris cleanup, and more.
CenterPoint responded that the costs of burying wires are location specific and the costs of repairing underground cables, when cut, are much higher. However, CenterPoint offered no specifics about the cost of burying power lines in Kingwood.
Impacts on the Elderly and Ill
Cambio also talked extensively about the impact of power outages on hospitals plus nursing and retirement homes.
Many operate in multi-story buildings. Elderly in wheel chairs rely on elevators. But without power, they are trapped. They can’t get up or down stairs to get to doctors. Nor do they have power for dialysis, breathing machines, etc.
Kingwood Hospital had a backup generator. But, reportedly, it was insufficient to power the entire facility.
Cambio recommended changes to state law, requiring hospitals, nursing homes and retirement homes to have sufficient backup-generator power to operate elevators and air conditioning.
The only problem: According to Chris Coulter of Texas Power Agents, such backup generators require regular maintenance. They also require oil and fuel, such as gasoline, which may be hard to find during widespread power outages. After Beryl, the lines I found at functioning gasoline stations stretched for more than a half mile.
Voluntary Best Management Practices May Not Be Enough
I asked Coulter, who was not at yesterday’s roving recovery meeting, for recommendations about how to improve electric reliability.
He immediately focused on vegetation management and tied the growth of vegetation over time with the increasing frequency of power outages.
The FERC report cited above says that utility vegetation management programs represent one of the largest recurring maintenance expenses for electric utility companies in North America.
Coulter jokingly characterized companies like CenterPoint as “tree trimming companies that happen to distribute power.”
FERC and NERC Guidlines
This FERC report is well written and easy to understand. It makes dozens of common-sense recommendations to improve electric reliability. I recommend it.
Coulter also referred me to NERC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. NERC describes itself as “… an international regulatory authority whose mission is to assure the effective and efficient reduction of risks to the reliability and security of the grid.”
Coulter said that NERC rules recognize different sizes of lines in regard to vegetation management requirements. Heavy fines apply if vegetation is ignored around lines that carry more than 100 kV.
However, lines that carry less power often get neglected – something that hampers recovery.
Coulter said that many of his Kingwood customers told him about seeing several such lines for the first time after Beryl. They didn’t even know the lines were there because they were so badly overgrown!
Said Coulter, “The NERC rules are very specific about frequency and minimum vegetation clearance distances for larger transmission (above 100 kV). Fines are steep so the utilities pay close attention and abide by the rules. However, Kingwood has a large spiderweb of distribution lines that are below that bright-line designation.”
Perhaps the fines need to apply to smaller power lines.
Next Step: Broaden the Discussion
Dee Price is reaching out to trail and community associations to set up a meeting about vegetation management. It will also involve our elected representatives, CenterPoint and Houston Public Works.
At a minimum, I came away from yesterday’s discussions with a feeling that we need to:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/3/24
2531 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 26 since Beryl
NHC Issues Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone 4
8/2/24 5PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued an advisory about Potential Tropical Cyclone 4. It affects people on the west coast of Florida for now. Since yesterday, models have come into closer alignment. There is now a higher degree of certainty that the PTC4 will track up the west coast of Florida, then cut east around Tampa and emerge into the Atlantic.
Current Status and Forecast
Land interaction with Cuba has limited strengthening of the storm today. But by 2PM Saturday, it should emerge into the eastern Gulf and intensify into a tropical storm before making landfall.
Maximum sustained winds are currently at 30 MPH, but will accelerate Saturday and Sunday.
NHC forecasts a 40-50% probability that the Florida’s western coast will see tropical storm force winds (one minute average >= 39MPH). The earliest arrival time on the southern tip of Florida is 8 AM Saturday 8/3/24.
So far, the tropical wave has not yet reached tropical storm force anywhere in the Atlantic or Caribbean. However, tropical storm watches and warnings are up for the entire western coast of Florida.
NOAA’s latest satellite imagery shows the storm centered over Cuba at 21:40 Z on 8/2/24.
Up to a Foot of Rain and 4 Feet of Storm Surge
NHC expects tropical storm conditions to follow the storm up the eastern seaboard through next Wednesday. They also warn of life-threatening storm surge (2-4 feet) and coastal flooding from Georgia to North Carolina next week. Finally, they warn of isolated river flooding.
Expect rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning.
Next Storm Name Is Debby
This storm should become “Debby.” Chris had a short life and veered into northern Mexico as Beryl was moving toward Houston.
For the time being, people in the Houston area can breathe easier. But the Atlantic hurricane season is just starting to heat up. It will peak on September 10.
Where to Find the Latest Information
Those with friends, relatives or vacation plans in the southeast can track the progress of the storm in satellite images at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php.
For the latest NHC forecasts, visit: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents.
NHC issues updates every 4 hours when a storm threatens.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/2/24 at 5:30 PM
2530 Days since Hurricane Harvey