6/30/24, 4 PM – Beryl intensified from a tropical storm yesterday morning to a category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds this afternoon.
Satellite image taken at 3:30 CDT
Elsewhere, Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. NHC predicts it will become a tropical storm by tonight and make landfall near where Alberto did in Mexico less than two weeks ago.
4PM Update on Beryl
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that the hurricane continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. Beryl has made only a minor shift to the north since this morning, following the trend in the latest models.
Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when the hurricane passes over portions of the Windward Islands. At highest risk: St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning.
Latest cone of uncertainty for Beryl as of 3PM CDT, 6/30/24
As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should weaken it slightly. However, NHC predicts that Beryl will remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region.
So far, the storm’s path has been eerily reminiscent of Harvey’s.
Here are the latest track forecasts of various models for today’s storm.
Some models take the path toward Houston, but the consensus seems a bit west.
Sea Surface Temps in Gulf
If Beryl makes it to the Gulf, it will encounter favorable sea surface temps.
Sea Surface Temperature departures from normal. 2 degrees Celsius = 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.
It is too early to predict atmospheric conditions in the Gulf next weekend.
Record-Breaking Beryl
As it spins across the Atlantic, Beryl has already set two records:
Farthest east a hurricane has ever formed in the Atlantic in June
Earliest Cat 4 Hurricane on record.
Before this storm, the record earliest Category 4 hurricane was Dennis on July 8, 2005.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 4PM CDT on 6/30/24
2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Beryl-4pm-5.30.24.jpg?fit=1100%2C817&ssl=18171100adminadmin2024-06-30 16:40:092024-06-30 20:18:23Beryl Goes from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 in One Day
6/30/24, 7 AM CDT – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now predicts that Hurricane Beryl could rapidly intensify into a Category 4 hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands early Monday morning. At 7 AM CDT, NHC estimated Beryl’s maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. That would currently make it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, which estimates damage to structures at various wind speeds. (See below.)
High SSTs, Low Wind Shear
Sea surface temperatures in Beryl’s path reach 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit, more typical of August than June. And as Beryl moves westward, wind sheer is decreasing. Both factors favor rapid intensification.
Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast continues to show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Windward islands.
Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, increasing shear will likely cause the hurricane’s intensity to level off, then start weakening around midweek, according to NHC.
Eye Wall Development
Recent satellite imagery shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the eyewall and a warming eye.
Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured the maximum wind speed this morning.
Beryl Continues to Track Mostly Westward
The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west at about 20 mph. There aren’t any significant track changes from the previous advisory. An extensive mid-level, high-pressure ridge north of Beryl will steer the system westward or west-northwestward for several days.
Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the forecast track. NHC’s 4 AM Atlantic Standard Time update notes that track prediction is basically an update of the previous one.
The farther out you get, the more models diverge. The average of all models eventually shows the storm moving into the western Gulf.
Category 4 Risks
This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward Islands. Beryl will bring destructive winds, life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall and flooding for much of the Windward Islands tonight and Monday.
Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale Categories
For those new to the Gulf Coast, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based only on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speed.
This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surge, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale estimates potential property damage. While all hurricanes produce life-threatening winds, hurricanes rated Category 3 and higher are known as major hurricanes.
Major hurricanes can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage and significant loss of life simply due to the strength of their winds.
Hurricanes of all categories can produce deadly storm surge, rain-induced floods, and tornadoes.
Category
Sustained Winds
Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
1
74-95 mph
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
2
96-110 mph
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3 (major)
111-129 mph
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4 (major)
130-156 mph
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5 (major)
157 mph or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Beryl-with-Eye.jpg?fit=1100%2C660&ssl=16601100adminadmin2024-06-30 06:55:342024-06-30 07:52:55Beryl Expected to Become Category 4 Hurricane
6/29/24 1:30PM and updated at 3PM – Overnight, a tropical depression in the Atlantic turned into a tropical storm named Beryl. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted Beryl would intensify into a hurricane by Sunday morning. But it reached hurricane strength by approximately 3PM today. NHC now predicts, Beryl will become a category 3 major hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.
Some models predict it could even turn into a category 4 hurricane as it tracks through the Caribbean. While it is generally headed toward the Gulf, the exact track remains uncertain this far out.
Beryl is one of the earliest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic. For advisories related to Beryl, see this page on the NHC site.
Meanwhile two other areas of concern are developing. One now over the Yucatan has a 50% chance of development. The other west of Africa has a 70% chance as of Saturday, 6/29/24 at 3PM CDT.
On top of all these storms, the Trinity River Authority has put the Lake Livingston Dam on “potential failure watch.”
Beryl Track
Beryl will continue west for the next 2-3 days. The storm’s strength will affect its track according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. Intensity will determine Beryl’s ability to fight high pressure to the north. The stronger it becomes, the farther north it will curve. The less it intensifies, the farther west it will track.
“At this point it is too early to determine the eventual longer term movement beyond the western Caribbean Sea,” cautions Lindner.
National Hurricane Center cone of uncertainty for Beryl shows it becoming a major hurricane by Monday 7/1/24.Most models predict a path toward the Gulf.Different combinations of models take Beryl in slightly different directions.
Beryl Intensity Forecasts
Lindner says that “conditions appear unusually favorable for this time of year and location for development.” Regional hurricane models (HWRF, HOMN, HAFSA, and HAFB) all show significant deepening of this system prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Well above-normal Atlantic water temperatures and low upper-level shear support continued development.
“The main question,” says Lindner, “is how quickly can Beryl form an inner core today or tonight and what potential is the upper end limit on intensification through the Islands?”‘
Satellite Photo from 11:20 AM Houston time, 6/29/24. Beryl is in right-hand circle.
Most models predict a 65 knot wind-speed increase in the next 72 hours. That far exceeds what climatology would suggest for this area for this time of year.
This morning, NHC forecasts a 110mph category 2 hurricane hitting the Windward Islands. They cautioned that their estimate might needed to be increased within the next 12-24 hours. But they increased it within six. By its 2 PM update, NHC predicted Beryl would reach major hurricane status before reaching the Windward Islands.
As Beryl moves deeper into the Caribbean Sea, wind sheer and dry air west of the storm could limit further intensification.
Lindner feels that Day 4-5 wind shear forecasts are not always reliable and the weakening trend shown on the right above may be somewhat overdone.
Another Storm Will Cross Gulf and Head into Mexico
A strong tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea has reached the eastern coast of the Yucatan and Belize. See the left hand circle in the satellite photo above.
A large area of deep convection has formed. Land interaction and westerly wind shear will inhibit immediate development. However, there may be a brief window for modest development in the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday/Monday. Then the storm should move inland over eastern Mexico. Current development odds remain around 50%.
Third Storm has 70% Chance of Formation in Atlantic
NHC indicates that a third storm will likely form in the same area where Beryl is now. See the elongated oval below.
This tropical wave is currently located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is showing signs of organization. Another tropical depression or storm may form by the middle part of next week as this wave moves westward along a similar track as Beryl. Chances for development over the next several days are 70%.
Lake Livingston Dam on Failure Watch
With all this activity in the tropics, it is somewhat disconcerting that the Trinity River Authority has placed the Lake Livingston Dam on a “Potential Failure Watch” due to recent heavy rainfall and flooding.
TRA says the dam is in no immediate danger of failing or breaching. They also say that day-to-day operations will continue, but “gate operations will vary based on conditions.” Translation: They’ll be releasing more water faster in the event of more heavy rainfall.
Look out below.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/29/24 and updated at 3PM
2496 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Beryl-Cone.png?fit=876%2C717&ssl=1717876adminadmin2024-06-29 12:24:192024-06-29 16:11:07TS Beryl Predicted to Reach Hurricane Strength within 24 Hours
Beryl Goes from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 in One Day
6/30/24, 4 PM – Beryl intensified from a tropical storm yesterday morning to a category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds this afternoon.
Elsewhere, Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. NHC predicts it will become a tropical storm by tonight and make landfall near where Alberto did in Mexico less than two weeks ago.
4PM Update on Beryl
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that the hurricane continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. Beryl has made only a minor shift to the north since this morning, following the trend in the latest models.
Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when the hurricane passes over portions of the Windward Islands. At highest risk: St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning.
As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should weaken it slightly. However, NHC predicts that Beryl will remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region.
So far, the storm’s path has been eerily reminiscent of Harvey’s.
Here are the latest track forecasts of various models for today’s storm.
Sea Surface Temps in Gulf
If Beryl makes it to the Gulf, it will encounter favorable sea surface temps.
It is too early to predict atmospheric conditions in the Gulf next weekend.
Record-Breaking Beryl
As it spins across the Atlantic, Beryl has already set two records:
Before this storm, the record earliest Category 4 hurricane was Dennis on July 8, 2005.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 4PM CDT on 6/30/24
2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Beryl Expected to Become Category 4 Hurricane
6/30/24, 7 AM CDT – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now predicts that Hurricane Beryl could rapidly intensify into a Category 4 hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands early Monday morning. At 7 AM CDT, NHC estimated Beryl’s maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. That would currently make it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, which estimates damage to structures at various wind speeds. (See below.)
High SSTs, Low Wind Shear
Sea surface temperatures in Beryl’s path reach 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit, more typical of August than June. And as Beryl moves westward, wind sheer is decreasing. Both factors favor rapid intensification.
Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast continues to show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Windward islands.
Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, increasing shear will likely cause the hurricane’s intensity to level off, then start weakening around midweek, according to NHC.
Eye Wall Development
Recent satellite imagery shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the eyewall and a warming eye.
Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured the maximum wind speed this morning.
Beryl Continues to Track Mostly Westward
The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west at about 20 mph. There aren’t any significant track changes from the previous advisory. An extensive mid-level, high-pressure ridge north of Beryl will steer the system westward or west-northwestward for several days.
Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the forecast track. NHC’s 4 AM Atlantic Standard Time update notes that track prediction is basically an update of the previous one.
The farther out you get, the more models diverge. The average of all models eventually shows the storm moving into the western Gulf.
Category 4 Risks
This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward Islands. Beryl will bring destructive winds, life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall and flooding for much of the Windward Islands tonight and Monday.
Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale Categories
For those new to the Gulf Coast, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based only on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speed.
This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surge, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale estimates potential property damage. While all hurricanes produce life-threatening winds, hurricanes rated Category 3 and higher are known as major hurricanes.
Major hurricanes can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage and significant loss of life simply due to the strength of their winds.
Hurricanes of all categories can produce deadly storm surge, rain-induced floods, and tornadoes.
(major)
(major)
(major)
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/30/24 at 7 AM CDT
2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey
TS Beryl Predicted to Reach Hurricane Strength within 24 Hours
6/29/24 1:30PM and updated at 3PM – Overnight, a tropical depression in the Atlantic turned into a tropical storm named Beryl. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted Beryl would intensify into a hurricane by Sunday morning. But it reached hurricane strength by approximately 3PM today. NHC now predicts, Beryl will become a category 3 major hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.
Some models predict it could even turn into a category 4 hurricane as it tracks through the Caribbean. While it is generally headed toward the Gulf, the exact track remains uncertain this far out.
Beryl is one of the earliest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic. For advisories related to Beryl, see this page on the NHC site.
Meanwhile two other areas of concern are developing. One now over the Yucatan has a 50% chance of development. The other west of Africa has a 70% chance as of Saturday, 6/29/24 at 3PM CDT.
On top of all these storms, the Trinity River Authority has put the Lake Livingston Dam on “potential failure watch.”
Beryl Track
Beryl will continue west for the next 2-3 days. The storm’s strength will affect its track according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. Intensity will determine Beryl’s ability to fight high pressure to the north. The stronger it becomes, the farther north it will curve. The less it intensifies, the farther west it will track.
“At this point it is too early to determine the eventual longer term movement beyond the western Caribbean Sea,” cautions Lindner.
Beryl Intensity Forecasts
Lindner says that “conditions appear unusually favorable for this time of year and location for development.” Regional hurricane models (HWRF, HOMN, HAFSA, and HAFB) all show significant deepening of this system prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Well above-normal Atlantic water temperatures and low upper-level shear support continued development.
“The main question,” says Lindner, “is how quickly can Beryl form an inner core today or tonight and what potential is the upper end limit on intensification through the Islands?”‘
Most models predict a 65 knot wind-speed increase in the next 72 hours. That far exceeds what climatology would suggest for this area for this time of year.
This morning, NHC forecasts a 110mph category 2 hurricane hitting the Windward Islands. They cautioned that their estimate might needed to be increased within the next 12-24 hours. But they increased it within six. By its 2 PM update, NHC predicted Beryl would reach major hurricane status before reaching the Windward Islands.
As Beryl moves deeper into the Caribbean Sea, wind sheer and dry air west of the storm could limit further intensification.
Lindner feels that Day 4-5 wind shear forecasts are not always reliable and the weakening trend shown on the right above may be somewhat overdone.
Another Storm Will Cross Gulf and Head into Mexico
A strong tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea has reached the eastern coast of the Yucatan and Belize. See the left hand circle in the satellite photo above.
A large area of deep convection has formed. Land interaction and westerly wind shear will inhibit immediate development. However, there may be a brief window for modest development in the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday/Monday. Then the storm should move inland over eastern Mexico. Current development odds remain around 50%.
Third Storm has 70% Chance of Formation in Atlantic
NHC indicates that a third storm will likely form in the same area where Beryl is now. See the elongated oval below.
This tropical wave is currently located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is showing signs of organization. Another tropical depression or storm may form by the middle part of next week as this wave moves westward along a similar track as Beryl. Chances for development over the next several days are 70%.
Lake Livingston Dam on Failure Watch
With all this activity in the tropics, it is somewhat disconcerting that the Trinity River Authority has placed the Lake Livingston Dam on a “Potential Failure Watch” due to recent heavy rainfall and flooding.
TRA says the dam is in no immediate danger of failing or breaching. They also say that day-to-day operations will continue, but “gate operations will vary based on conditions.” Translation: They’ll be releasing more water faster in the event of more heavy rainfall.
Look out below.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/29/24 and updated at 3PM
2496 Days since Hurricane Harvey