8/1/24 – 7PM Update – Since posting this story earlier today, NHC has shifted its predictions even farther west and increased development chances to 40% in two cays and 70% in 7 days.
8/1/24, 9 AM – According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a well-defined tropical wave is now moving toward the Gulf. This represents a significant change from earlier predictions that took the storm east of Florida.
The system is currently producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Location as of 8/1/24 at 9AM CDT
Development Chances
Development of this system should occur slowly during the next two days. Environmental conditions will soon become more conducive for development. And a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The system has a 20% chance of formation in the next 2 days and a 60% chance in the next 7.
National Hurricane Center
NHC and others have discussed this tropical wave for about a week now. In the last 2 days, shower and thunderstorm development has become better organized, but there is still no defined circulation at the surface at this time.
The wave axis should reach Cuba by early this weekend. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, land interaction will likely prevent any sort of significant development in the near term – unless a center forms either south or north of the inlands.
Likely Track
Toward this weekend it is now likely that the wave will enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, the steering patterns become highly complex.
Forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty. Different models show numerous outcomes in the eastern Gulf during the next 5-7 days.
Weak Storm Likely at This Point
Intensity forecasts are also very uncertain at this point. Most models predict a weak system. But once a defined surface center forms, intensification looks likely.
Factors Supporting Development
Lindner points to three factors supporting eventual development.
Conditions supporting intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico include:
Very warm sea surface temperatures
Light wind shear
Potential for dual outflow channels aloft.
Role of Dual Outflow Channels in Formation
Meteorologists frequently talk about shear and sea surface temperatures in relation to hurricane formation. But they talk less often about the importance of outflow channels. How do outflow channels support hurricane formation?
Dual outflow channels are important in hurricane formation because they can enhance the efficiency and intensity of a storm.
According to ChatGPT, they provide:
Enhanced Ventilation: This allows the hurricane to expel air more efficiently, promoting a stronger inflow at the surface.
Symmetrical Structure: With outflow in multiple directions, the hurricane maintains a more symmetrical structure.
Lower Pressure: Efficient outflow channels contribute to lowering the central pressure of the hurricane. Lower pressure at the core leads to higher wind speeds and a more powerful storm.
Sustained Intensification: Dual outflow channels can support sustained intensification by continually removing air from the upper levels, allowing the storm to draw in warm, moist air from the ocean surface.
Balanced Energy Distribution: The channels help distribute energy more evenly around the storm, preventing one side from becoming too dominant and potentially disrupting the hurricane’s structure.
Dual outflow channels thus help enhance the structural integrity, efficiency, and intensity of hurricanes.
Preparations
At this time, no one predicts that the storm will reach as far west as Houston. But last week, no one predicted that it would reach the Gulf either.
As always, your best bet is to be prepared for anything. Restock food, water and batteries used after Beryl. Recharge your backups. And monitor the NHC daily.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/1/24
2529 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Potential-Gulf-Storm.png?fit=897%2C669&ssl=1669897adminadmin2024-08-01 10:56:492024-08-01 18:47:32New Forecasts Show Latest Disturbance Now Moving Toward Gulf
Here’s how to report storm debris blocking Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) ditches and streams.
After a storm, it’s crucial to keep HCFCD channels clear of fallen trees and debris to reduce future flood risk. One tree down across a stream can catch other trees that create a log dam, backing water up into neighborhoods and streets.
If you spot any obstructions, please report them immediately.
With most power lines restored, now is the time to start the next step in the recovery process from Hurricane Beryl: clearing creeks and ditches.
In places like Kingwood, many creeks and ditches are in greenbelts. And many blockages may still be difficult to reach because of debris that has fallen on greenbelt trails.
Residents should seek out problems that could affect their homes and report them immediately.
Tree downed by Beryl over Bens Branch near Village Oaks Drivein Kingwood
Reporting Tips
HCFCD maintains more than 2000 miles of channels. So, report problems quickly; you don’t want to be at the end of that line.
Also make sure you clearly identify the location.
Many cell phones and cameras allow you to embed GPS coordinates in images if you turn the function on in settings.
Most drones also attach GPS coordinates to images.
At a minimum, use street addresses and crossroads.
I use a shareware program called PhotoGeoTag that generates a map of a problem’s location from GPS coordinates embedded in a photo like the one above. See below.
Screen Capture from PhotoGeoTag
It’s also important to identify the channel. Many locations won’t have names or street addresses. But they should have channel ID numbers at a minimum.
7/29/24 – Yesterday, I reviewed a thought-provoking, academic study co-authored by Dr. Samuel Brody of Texas A&M about the relative effectiveness of three different forms of flood mitigation. Today, I would like to discuss a related topic – the costs of not preserving floodplains.
Land in a floodplain is cheap. But the initial cost to the buyer/developer does not reflect the subsequent costs homebuyers and tax payers may incur.
Colony Ridge Land, Inc. bought up a series of lots in Huffman next the San Jacinto East Fork. Harris County Appraisal District values the half- to one-acre lots between $10,000 and $20,000. The catch? They were under 38.7 feet of water during Harvey and 33.7 feet during the 1994 flood.
Assuming Colony Ridge develops these properties, the subsequent costs could far outweigh their sales prices. But it won’t be the developer bearing the costs.
I asked ChatGPT to catalog the costs of NOT preserving floodplains. Here’s how it responded.
“Costs of NOT Preserving Floodplains”
ChatGPT: “Not preserving floodplains can result in a variety of costs and consequences, both immediate and long-term. These can be broadly categorized into environmental, economic, and social costs:
Environmental Costs:
Loss of Biodiversity: Floodplains are rich in biodiversity, providing habitats for numerous species. Development can lead to habitat destruction and loss of species.
Decreased Water Quality: Floodplains filter pollutants from water. Without them, pollutants can flow directly into rivers and lakes, degrading water quality.
Erosion and Sedimentation: The natural vegetation in floodplains helps prevent soil erosion. Without this, erosion can increase, leading to sedimentation in water bodies, which can harm aquatic life and reduce water quality.
Economic Costs:
Increased Flood Damage: Without natural floodplains to absorb floodwaters, the risk of flooding in developed areas increases, leading to higher costs in property damage and infrastructure repair.
Higher Flood Insurance Premiums: Increased flood risks can lead to higher insurance premiums for properties in flood-prone areas.
Loss of Ecosystem Services: Floodplains provide various ecosystem services, such as water filtration, carbon sequestration, and recreational opportunities. Losing these can have economic impacts.
Social Costs:
Displacement of Communities: Increased flooding can lead to the displacement of communities, causing social disruption and potentially leading to long-term relocation costs.
Health Impacts: Poor water quality and increased flood events can lead to health issues, such as waterborne diseases and mental health stress due to displacement and property loss.
Loss of Recreational Spaces: Floodplains often provide recreational spaces for communities. Development can lead to the loss of these spaces, reducing quality of life.
Long-Term Consequences:
Climate Change Exacerbation: Floodplains play a role in carbon sequestration. Their destruction can contribute to higher atmospheric CO2 levels, exacerbating climate change.
Sustainable Development Challenges: Unsustainable development in floodplains can hinder long-term sustainable development goals, leading to ongoing environmental and economic challenges.
Intergenerational Equity: Failing to preserve floodplains can impose long-term costs on future generations, including degraded environmental conditions and increased financial burdens.
Mitigation and Preservation Strategies:
Enforcing Zoning Laws: Implementing and enforcing zoning laws that restrict development in floodplain areas.
Restoration Projects: Initiating projects to restore and rehabilitate degraded floodplains.
Public Awareness: Educating the public and policymakers about the importance of floodplains and the consequences of their destruction.
Incentives for Conservation: Providing financial incentives for landowners to preserve and maintain floodplain areas.
The costs of not preserving floodplains are multifaceted and can lead to significant long-term consequences if not addressed through proactive measures.”
Diving Deeper
Clearly, you can do a deep dive into any one of the bullet points above – plus others not shown – and come up with a long list of costs.
ChatGPT didn’t even mention dredging costs, buyout costs or the cost of flood mitigation projects that try to reduce flooding in areas that flood repeatedly.
For instance:
The City of Houston spent $18 million to dredge the mouth bar of the San Jacinto East Fork downstream from the wetlands developed in Colony Ridge.
An article in Nature titled “Assessing the Full Costs of Floodplain Buyouts” by William Curran-Groome, Haylee Haygood, Miyuki Hino, Todd K. BenDor and David Salvesen details 23 pages of costs related to buyouts. They include burdens on government staff involved in buyout funding, acquisitions that can take years, 5-year funding pipelines, and dozens of other transactional costs.
Close to home, it took HCFCD five years to purchase and tear down the Forest Cove townhomes. And it cost the Houston Parks Board $3.5 million to build a segment of the West Fork Greenway that goes about halfway between US59 and Woodland Hills Drive.
I plan to dig deeper into the costs of not preserving floodplains to see if someone has compiled a comprehensive list of taxpayer costs triggered by a floodplain development. More to follow.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/29/24
2526 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/20191104-RJR_4686.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2024-07-29 18:02:052024-07-29 18:02:07Costs of NOT Preserving Floodplains
New Forecasts Show Latest Disturbance Now Moving Toward Gulf
8/1/24 – 7PM Update – Since posting this story earlier today, NHC has shifted its predictions even farther west and increased development chances to 40% in two cays and 70% in 7 days.
8/1/24, 9 AM – According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a well-defined tropical wave is now moving toward the Gulf. This represents a significant change from earlier predictions that took the storm east of Florida.
The system is currently producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Development Chances
Development of this system should occur slowly during the next two days. Environmental conditions will soon become more conducive for development. And a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
NHC and others have discussed this tropical wave for about a week now. In the last 2 days, shower and thunderstorm development has become better organized, but there is still no defined circulation at the surface at this time.
The wave axis should reach Cuba by early this weekend. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, land interaction will likely prevent any sort of significant development in the near term – unless a center forms either south or north of the inlands.
Likely Track
Toward this weekend it is now likely that the wave will enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, the steering patterns become highly complex.
Forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty. Different models show numerous outcomes in the eastern Gulf during the next 5-7 days.
Weak Storm Likely at This Point
Intensity forecasts are also very uncertain at this point. Most models predict a weak system. But once a defined surface center forms, intensification looks likely.
Factors Supporting Development
Lindner points to three factors supporting eventual development.
Conditions supporting intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico include:
Role of Dual Outflow Channels in Formation
Meteorologists frequently talk about shear and sea surface temperatures in relation to hurricane formation. But they talk less often about the importance of outflow channels. How do outflow channels support hurricane formation?
According to ChatGPT, they provide:
Dual outflow channels thus help enhance the structural integrity, efficiency, and intensity of hurricanes.
Preparations
At this time, no one predicts that the storm will reach as far west as Houston. But last week, no one predicted that it would reach the Gulf either.
As always, your best bet is to be prepared for anything. Restock food, water and batteries used after Beryl. Recharge your backups. And monitor the NHC daily.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/1/24
2529 Days since Hurricane Harvey
How to Report Storm Debris Blocking HCFCD Ditches, Creeks
Here’s how to report storm debris blocking Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) ditches and streams.
After a storm, it’s crucial to keep HCFCD channels clear of fallen trees and debris to reduce future flood risk. One tree down across a stream can catch other trees that create a log dam, backing water up into neighborhoods and streets.
If you spot any obstructions, please report them immediately.
The Next Step in Recovery
With most power lines restored, now is the time to start the next step in the recovery process from Hurricane Beryl: clearing creeks and ditches.
In places like Kingwood, many creeks and ditches are in greenbelts. And many blockages may still be difficult to reach because of debris that has fallen on greenbelt trails.
Residents should seek out problems that could affect their homes and report them immediately.
Reporting Tips
HCFCD maintains more than 2000 miles of channels. So, report problems quickly; you don’t want to be at the end of that line.
Also make sure you clearly identify the location.
I use a shareware program called PhotoGeoTag that generates a map of a problem’s location from GPS coordinates embedded in a photo like the one above. See below.
It’s also important to identify the channel. Many locations won’t have names or street addresses. But they should have channel ID numbers at a minimum.
Consult the Harris County Flood Education Mapping Tool for the ID number of unnamed channels or tributaries.
Now you know how to report storm debris. Over to you!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/30/2024
2527 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Costs of NOT Preserving Floodplains
7/29/24 – Yesterday, I reviewed a thought-provoking, academic study co-authored by Dr. Samuel Brody of Texas A&M about the relative effectiveness of three different forms of flood mitigation. Today, I would like to discuss a related topic – the costs of not preserving floodplains.
Land in a floodplain is cheap. But the initial cost to the buyer/developer does not reflect the subsequent costs homebuyers and tax payers may incur.
Colony Ridge Land, Inc. bought up a series of lots in Huffman next the San Jacinto East Fork. Harris County Appraisal District values the half- to one-acre lots between $10,000 and $20,000. The catch? They were under 38.7 feet of water during Harvey and 33.7 feet during the 1994 flood.
Assuming Colony Ridge develops these properties, the subsequent costs could far outweigh their sales prices. But it won’t be the developer bearing the costs.
I asked ChatGPT to catalog the costs of NOT preserving floodplains. Here’s how it responded.
“Costs of NOT Preserving Floodplains”
ChatGPT: “Not preserving floodplains can result in a variety of costs and consequences, both immediate and long-term. These can be broadly categorized into environmental, economic, and social costs:
Environmental Costs:
Economic Costs:
Social Costs:
Long-Term Consequences:
Mitigation and Preservation Strategies:
The costs of not preserving floodplains are multifaceted and can lead to significant long-term consequences if not addressed through proactive measures.”
Diving Deeper
Clearly, you can do a deep dive into any one of the bullet points above – plus others not shown – and come up with a long list of costs.
ChatGPT didn’t even mention dredging costs, buyout costs or the cost of flood mitigation projects that try to reduce flooding in areas that flood repeatedly.
For instance:
I plan to dig deeper into the costs of not preserving floodplains to see if someone has compiled a comprehensive list of taxpayer costs triggered by a floodplain development. More to follow.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/29/24
2526 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.