Francine track

TS Francine Will Now Likely Strike East of Houston

9/9/24 – 7 PM update – Francine is strengthening faster than expected. Current sustained winds are 65 MPH and NHC predicts the storm will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. The post below was written at 2PM this afternoon.

This morning Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 intensified and formed a center of circulation. With winds currently at 60 MPH, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) named it Tropical Storm Francine. NHC expects it to intensify into a hurricane tomorrow. Francine’s current predicted track will take it inland over Louisiana.

At the moment, models suggest the worst of the storm will miss Houston to the south and the east.

At 1 PM CDT, TS Francine was still between Brownsville, TX and the Yucatan.

Watches and Warnings Now In Effect

As of Monday at 2 PM CDT, NHC had issued the following watches and warnings:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

  • High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
  • Vermilion Bay
  • Lake Maurepas
  • Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

  • The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
  • Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
  • East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
  • East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
  • Lake Pontchartrain
  • Lake Maurepas

Likely Track

The western edge of the cone of uncertainty extends westward to far east Texas.

Note, however, that the cone does not indicate the width of the storm. It simply means that the center of the storm has an equal chance of passing over every point within the cone. Because the storm is currently 160 miles wide, if Francine made landfall toward the western edge of the cone, the Houston area could see significant impacts.

Still, models agree that the storm will likely make landfall in Louisiana.

Storm Surge

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to flood from
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 ft
  • Vermilion Bay…5-10 ft
  • Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 ft
  • High Island, TX to Cameron, LA…3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk-reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.

Winds Approaching 86 MPH

Francine is moving at 5 MPH. NHC expects winds to peak at 75 knots (86 MPH) within 48 hours. That would make Francine a Category 1 Hurricane. Cat 1 ranges from 74 to 95 MPH.

The highest winds will likely focus on southern Louisiana.

Tropical storm force winds could be felt in the Houston area as early as late tomorrow afternoon into evening.

However, the most likely arrival times will be approximately 12 hours earlier.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, feels, “There is a 30-50% chance of TS force winds on Wednesday along the upper Texas coast and a 10-20% chance of tropical-storm-force winds across the metro-Houston area.”

“Squalls and bands of rain will begin to move into the outer coastal waters on Tuesday and spread toward the coast. Some of the activity is likely to impact the coastal counties Tuesday night into Wednesday depending on the exact track.”

“Hurricane conditions may graze our outer coastal waters Wednesday afternoon, but at this time the probability of sustained hurricane force winds along the upper Texas coast is generally 5-10% from roughly Freeport to Sabine Pass,” said Lindner.

Rainfall and Flooding

According to NHC, Francine will bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding to portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.

Lindner predicts, “Rainfall amounts over SE TX have generally been pulled back some with the eastward track shifts and it is likely the core of heaviest rainfall will remain offshore. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected along the coast with amounts of generally less than an inch inland of US 59.”

Whew. Keep your fingers crossed and hope that Francine stays south of us. We haven’t even finished cleanup from Beryl yet.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/24 at 2PM

2568 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 63 since Beryl