NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

5/21/2026 – Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service predict a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin for 2026. The Atlantic season runs June 1 to November 30. NOAA predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency predicts a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, it forecasts 3-6 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher). That includes 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).

An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. 

NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. If the 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season ends up below-normal, it would mark only the second season in the last decade without above-normal activity. Since the current Atlantic high-activity era began in 1995, 22 of 31 (about 70%) seasons have had above-normal activity. Only 5 (17%) and 4 (14%) have had near- and below-normal activity, respectively. That’s based on the 1951-2020 climatology.

Also, 10 (almost half) of the above-normal years (thus 32% of the 31 years) have been hyperactive (ACE of 165% of median). 

Key Factors Driving NOAA’s Forecast

NOAA based its below-normal predictions on competing factors.

• El Niño should develop and intensify during the hurricane season. This creates wind shear in the Atlantic which discourages hurricane formation.
• Atlantic ocean temperatures should range slightly warmer than normal
• Trade winds will likely be weaker than average.

El Niño conditions tend to support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now.”

“It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

National Weather Service Director Ken Graham

Below are the storm names for 2026.

Not a Landfall Forecast

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land. That is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns. This is not a landfall forecast. 

Importance of Preparation

“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm. Visit weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov for important preparedness information,” added Graham.

New, Enhanced Communication Products This Season

“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”

• NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) will implement an improved version of the tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic that will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 
• NHC will begin testing an experimental version of the tropical cyclone track forecast cone that will capture a greater range of possibilities for the track of the storm by incorporating uncertainties for both direction of movement and timing.  

Advancements to Hurricane Analysis and Forecasts

Advances are not just in communication:

• NOAA, in collaboration with the Unified Forecast System community, is testing an experimental high-resolution Seasonal Forecast System that utilizes the latest modeling technology and new methods to assess the evolution of the global ocean-atmosphere system. The system is helping forecasters better simulate tropical storms and hurricanes, and more effectively predict the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. 
• NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) is using machine learning to quality-control data collected from tail Doppler radar — a specialized radar system mounted on the back of NOAA’s “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft. This new method gathers more than 25% more meteorological data than the current method and leads to more high-quality data to support structure and wind analysis by forecasters.

New, Innovative Forecasting Technologies

• NOAA’s Office of Water Prediction high-resolution Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) services provide emergency managers visualizations of those streets and neighborhoods likely to go underwater. FIM covers 60% of the U.S. population and will expand to nearly 100% by late September 2026. 
• For the first time, data from small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) will be integrated into NOAA’s hurricane forecast model during the 2026 hurricane season. Scientists from the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) determined that incorporating sUAS data into NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) can improve hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by 10%.
• NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center launched the experimental Urban Rain Rate Dashboard, a customizable, real-time tool that shows the probability of extreme rainfall a week in advance for more than 60 U.S. cities. 

The 2026 Atlantic seasonal outlook will be updated in early August, ahead of the historical peak of the season, which typically extends from mid-September through October.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/2026 based on information from NOAA and NWS

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